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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 19:08:20 GMT -5
^- he was talking about folks calling Vazquez the next Molina.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 12, 2015 19:10:03 GMT -5
^- he was talking about folks calling Vazquez the next Molina. Well then, my bad. I can only agree!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,951
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 12, 2015 20:03:51 GMT -5
To my non-scout's eye, Swihart's mechanics behind the plate looked a bit like (gulp) Salty's. He just looked awkward in the way he would stab at the ball or set his feet to throw. I expected better.
But given the athleticism that others here have mentioned and his reputation as an intelligent kid with a good work ethic, I don't think it's a concern long-term. He'll improve.
My preference would be to send him back to AAA for a year to play 3B. A lot of the athleticism - the impressive speed, for instance - will disappear fast if he spends 130 games a year squatting and getting his hands, mask, thighs, etc. pounded by foul balls.
The upside might be a 2017 3B who could put up a 110-ish OPS-plus and play average defense with incremental improvement each year thereafter, all while being cost-controlled. That would be a lot better than what we have at the position now.
In the meantime, the RS would have to find another Hanigan/Ross type - somebody better than Sandy Leon - to share C with Hanigan in 2016 until CV is fully healthy and ready to catch 130 games.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 20:31:39 GMT -5
If you have a choice between a 110 OPS+ average defense 3B who plays 150 games a year or a 100 OPS+ below-average/average defensive C who plays 120 games a year, you take the latter, or you trade the latter for a 3B with comparable value. The only reason you move a guy off catcher is some combination of injuries, if he's really bad defensively, or if you think he'll develop substantially faster at another position. None of that is present with Swihart.
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Post by brentl22 on Nov 12, 2015 20:45:58 GMT -5
Had to create new account haven't been on in a while that said....
I am curious to jbjs actual value as well as swiharts. Jbj has some hype to him an his value is more then aaron hicks because he offers more upside in most people's opinions including mine. Swihart offer so much potential offensively good defense that is improving and great athleticism that should allow him to do things most can't at that position he will hit for avg an avg power at the least but good d 10 hrs an 300 plus avg for a c is huge and some teams will value his bat more then others I wonder are the Cubs one of them?
Look swihart is rare in many ways for a c one being a guy who could get alot of hits an hit at the beginning of a lineup. Cubs have so much power an talent in there lineup it doesn't all mesh. Rizzo bryant Russell Schwarber and solar make up there future in the lineup baez and Castro seem destined to be moved. What do the players first mention have in common power an middle of order bats they need guys in front getting on base and scoring runs. They can move one. Schwarber makes most sense to be moved because he can bring the most back an has no true defensive home on the cubs. He gives us a potential #4 slugger to replace ortiz when that time comes he's got Jeff Bagwell upside. He'd take alot to get. Swihart Jbj brian johnson may be alot to give up but may not even be anuff id be willing to do almost anything to get Schwarber.
I'm not quick to give up swihart I love him but I love Vazquez also an believe in both. Swihart has alot of value that could be part of a deal that nets us the slugger or ace we need
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 12, 2015 20:58:30 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun. How many thousand framing opportunities would you consider an acceptable sample size?
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Post by mredsox89 on Nov 12, 2015 21:12:56 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun. How many thousand framing opportunities would you consider an acceptable sample size? The "excuse", reasonable or not, is that he wasn't ready for the bigs last season and got thrust into the role because of need. I tend to lean that direction, as his athleticism lends to the fact that he should become better at certain aspects of his defense, though pitch framing might not be one of them. Under the assumption that CV gets back to 100%, the Swihart defense question probably won't have all that much impact, as he'll either be dealt or not catch 100+ games. That's obviously a big assumption at this point in time. But much like Bogaerts last year, I expect large strides defensively for Swihart next season
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2015 21:29:44 GMT -5
Unless we are talking about Sonny Gray or Chris Sale types I don't see Swihart getting traded. In the long run he might turn out to have the most value as there are very few good catchers in the majors right now. Can people please stop using Sonny Gray's name in the same sentence with real aces like Sale and Fernandez? Gray has never had a 4 win season. Someone else mentioned Betts in a Gray deal earlier. What do you mean 4 win season? You mean WAR? Sonny had a WAR of 5.8 last year, that's real aces stuff dude.
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Post by thursty on Nov 12, 2015 21:41:18 GMT -5
fangraphs WAR (which ignores run prevention) 1.5 3.1 3.8
And @jimed's larger point is correct - not a Sale or Fernandez
PS - to trade Betts for Gray would be a war crime
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 21:43:18 GMT -5
To my non-scout's eye, Swihart's mechanics behind the plate looked a bit like (gulp) Salty's. He just looked awkward in the way he would stab at the ball or set his feet to throw. I expected better. But given the athleticism that others here have mentioned and his reputation as an intelligent kid with a good work ethic, I don't think it's a concern long-term. He'll improve. My preference would be to send him back to AAA for a year to play 3B. A lot of the athleticism - the impressive speed, for instance - will disappear fast if he spends 130 games a year squatting and getting his hands, mask, thighs, etc. pounded by foul balls. The upside might be a 2017 3B who could put up a 110-ish OPS-plus and play average defense with incremental improvement each year thereafter, all while being cost-controlled. That would be a lot better than what we have at the position now. In the meantime, the RS would have to find another Hanigan/Ross type - somebody better than Sandy Leon - to share C with Hanigan in 2016 until CV is fully healthy and ready to catch 130 games. good god no just no
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 12, 2015 21:55:31 GMT -5
Claiming that Swihart is a defensive liability based on the small sample size that is part of one season (and his first season at that) is nonsense. Clearly, the offseason madness has begun. How many thousand framing opportunities would you consider an acceptable sample size? A lot more than half a season's worth. Swihart will never be as good as CV is in that area. Fine. That doesn't mean that over time Swihart can't improve his defensive game to the point where he's decent to good, and develops a much better bat as he goes along, too. Swihart is hardly a finished product, offensively or defensively. He should have been in AAA last season honing his craft. Instead he got rushed up to the majors and improved as he went along.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,951
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 12, 2015 22:06:43 GMT -5
If you have a choice between a 110 OPS+ average defense 3B who plays 150 games a year or a 100 OPS+ below-average/average defensive C who plays 120 games a year, you take the latter, or you trade the latter for a 3B with comparable value. The only reason you move a guy off catcher is some combination of injuries, if he's really bad defensively, or if you think he'll develop substantially faster at another position. None of that is present with Swihart. Well, I actually said that under a best-case scenario, he might start as a 110 OPS-plus 3B with average defense and then improve a bit from there. That performance would make him a tremendous asset for the three years that he's making the minimum. For a quick, down and dirty comparison, Mike Moustakas had a 120 OPS-plus and just below average defense (b-Ref -3 RAA/1,200 innings) in 2015 and that made him a 4.4 WAR player. As far as losing Blake as a 100 OPS-plus C with average or just under average defense, that's only a loss if you don't have another good C option. The RS will have another option once - Ok, I should say if - our little defensive stud recovers and starts firing rifle shots to all bases again. The other elephant in the room (no pun intended, honest) is Pablo. We'd all like to see him ascend back to mediocrity and be a 2-WAR player in 2016. That might enable the RS to move him and just get badly maimed - as opposed to totally killed - financially. That would leave 3B open. OTOH, if he continues his steep downward trend, that probably also leaves 3B open because at that point it gets hard to justify wasting a roster spot on him, fat - Ok, maybe that pun is intended - contract notwithstanding. Hey, it's possible that Blake would flop as a 3B either because his bat doesn't play there or because he can't field the position. He'd still be a great trade asset because he'd still be coveted by teams looking for a promising young C.
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Post by jmei on Nov 12, 2015 22:58:41 GMT -5
If Swihart spends a year trying 3B and fails, you've wasted a year of his development time and made other teams more skeptical about why you attempted that experiment in the first place. It doesn't seem worth it for the tiny chance that he's more useful as a 3B than as a trade chip.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 13, 2015 0:17:19 GMT -5
fangraphs WAR (which ignores run prevention) 1.5 3.1 3.8 And @jimed's larger point is correct - not a Sale or Fernandez PS - to trade Betts for Gray would be a war crime Baseball reference has Gray's WAR for last three years at 1.4, 3.2, and 5.8. Remember those are his first three years, Chris Sale first three years 1.1, 2.2 and 5.8. So how exactly does Gray not stack up to Chris Sale? Last Year Chris Sale had a WAR of 3.3 compared to Grays 5.8.
PS I was talking about trading Swihart for Gray not Betts!
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2015 6:56:29 GMT -5
How many thousand framing opportunities would you consider an acceptable sample size? A lot more than half a season's worth. So you're saying 10,000 is still a small sample size? 20,000? How about an entire baseball career, is that also a small sample size?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2015 7:03:48 GMT -5
fangraphs WAR (which ignores run prevention) 1.5 3.1 3.8 And @jimed's larger point is correct - not a Sale or Fernandez PS - to trade Betts for Gray would be a war crime Baseball reference has Gray's WAR for last three years at 1.4, 3.2, and 5.8. Remember those are his first three years, Chris Sale first three years 1.1, 2.2 and 5.8. So how exactly does Gray not stack up to Chris Sale? Last Year Chris Sale had a WAR of 3.3 compared to Grays 5.8.
PS I was talking about trading Swihart for Gray not Betts!
Sale was 3 years younger than Gray in those first three years. They're the same age now. For their careers, Sonny Gray has a 3.59 SIERA and Sale has a 2.80 SIERA (lower than Kershaw's). Sale had a K%-BB% of 27.2% last season, which is absurd. Gray was at 13.2%. Sale is right there with Kershaw. Gray isn't even as good as Lester. B-ref's pitching WAR doesn't do those two justice at all. Fangraphs is the opposite. Last year Sale had 6.2 and Gray had 3.8 fWAR.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2015 7:38:11 GMT -5
A lot more than half a season's worth. So you're saying 10,000 is still a small sample size? 20,000? How about an entire baseball career, is that also a small sample size? How about 142,653 chances. Once he hit's that particular number, I've got my sample size. Try forgetting the numbers for one second and try grasping the concept that he's a young kid, who from all accounts, is a hard worker, and there is a decent chance he improves his pitch framing skills. In layman's terms, just because he isn't that great at 23 doesn't mean that he won't be good at 25 or 26 or 27. He's a work in progress. Telling me what he's already done as a kid just learning doesn't necessarily tell me what he's going to do. All I got - is the obvious - he won't be as good at this as Vazquez was (and hopefully is), and that the skill came pretty naturally to Vazquez, and it doesn't for Swihart. It's like telling me that if a kid has 500 ABs in the majors and struggles, there's little chance he can improve because he is what he is.
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Post by justinp123 on Nov 13, 2015 7:56:03 GMT -5
I can see it now. Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, 2 men on base, 2 outs,Vasquez up to bat with his .200 batting average. He swings and pops out for the 4th time tonight. Man i sure wish they kept Swihart talks will start .
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2015 8:25:12 GMT -5
I can see it now. Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, 2 men on base, 2 outs,Vasquez up to bat with his .200 batting average. He swings and pops out for the 4th time tonight. Man i sure wish they kept Swihart talks will start . Or this. Bases loaded, bottom of the 9th, 2 men on base, 2 outs, a 3-2 pitch, Vazquez behind the plate. He frames a pitch perfectly without moving his glove at all, though the ball is 3 inches low and outside. Game over. Called 3rd strike. Or same situation with Swihart catching. He stabs at the same pitch and it's ball 4. Next guy up hits a grand slam. We could do this all day. The difference is that catchers affect each and every pitch his team throws all game every game. They might bat 4 times a game and get out ~3 times a game on average.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 13, 2015 8:55:53 GMT -5
I don't think anyone is chomping at the bit to trade Swihart.....I think the big question here is the odds that CV will return %100 vs Swihart improving, especially defensivly......I would bet both happens. The thing is the other side of trading Swihart could get you that #1 we would need. A lot of people here are saying don't trade Swihart which is understandable, but these days it is equally difficult to obtain a young cost controlled #1, than it is to obtain a young cost controlled good starting catcher.
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Post by justinp123 on Nov 13, 2015 9:22:49 GMT -5
I get that good pitch framing in a game is hard to find, but i'd rather have a .300 hitter and take my chances then to hope that our pitcher, the umpire and the catcher are all aligned.
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Post by justinp123 on Nov 13, 2015 9:27:34 GMT -5
I think the red sox will regret trading swihart and going with vasquez in my opinion.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 9:48:58 GMT -5
A couple observations and opinions:
1. Vazquez cannot be the next Molina unless he develops into a GREAT hitter. Molina's bat developed into a middle of the order hitter. There is ZERO reason to even think that's possible for CV.
2. Trading Swithart now would be dumb. He basically just proved to be a very good starting catcher and he's entering his age 24 season (birthday in april). CV is coming off an injury that is unpredictable and could render him a backup type catcher. Oh the horror, take off the fanboy glasses for a minute and get real. Yes, he COULD, be a great catcher bc his defense is that good and maybe he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. However, he just had TJS and that's s huge deal both for his bat and his throwing ability. People need to grasp that Switharts floor and ceiling are both higher than Vazquez at this point.
3. Even without the injury, there was legit concern that CV wouldn't hit enough to stay in the lineup full time. Yes, you can say that his defense is that good that even if he's a .230/.300/.310 hitter he's a valuable starting catcher. And in a vacuum u may be right, but there are other factors at play. Like Is that a valuable starter on a team that's championship caliber. Does the hole he creates in the batting lineup hurt you elsewhere? Meaning you can only have so many holes in the lineup and then you need to offset it everywhere else. This then limits who you can get at other positions and can cause you to over pay because your flexibility is diminished. Then it really hurts your depth because if there's an injury then you are adding a weak bat to a lineup that already has one or maybe two adding another is real bad. There's a team building ripple effect that can't be ignored which should be taken into account when deciding who you want to make part of your core.
4. The real truth is this conversation is being had too early as there are too many variables and the players are still developing. They both need to be kept right now because of the CV injury. It's too risky to put your faith in him and his trade value is too low to make him the center piece of a deal. Swithart needs to be this teams catcher opening day next year unless the white sox wanted to flip you Sale straight up.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 10:02:45 GMT -5
I think teams realize Swihart is a 24 year old catcher who is ready to start and had a great second half. His value is very high right now, so in that sense it isn't a bad time to trade him. I do agree that they need to be sure that Vazquez is healthy first, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Swihart for a young ace.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 13, 2015 10:07:05 GMT -5
I get that good pitch framing in a game is hard to find, but i'd rather have a .300 hitter and take my chances then to hope that our pitcher, the umpire and the catcher are all aligned. As opposed to a .250 hitter? you know the difference is .05 or 5%. I'd rather focus on more than BA but I wanted to point out the minute difference between a .300 vs. .250 hitter as I think alot of people look at as 50 point difference rather than 5% which it actually is.
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