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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 13, 2015 10:09:36 GMT -5
I think teams realize Swihart is a 24 year old catcher who is ready to start and had a great second half. His value is very high right now, so in that sense it isn't a bad time to trade him. I do agree that they need to be sure that Vazquez is healthy first, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Swihart for a young ace. I thought everyone was on the same page in regards to holding onto both at least for now until CV proves he's fully back. Even then both of these guys stock should be on the rise for the next few seasons.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2015 10:11:40 GMT -5
... 1. Vazquez cannot be the next Molina unless he develops into a GREAT hitter. Molina's bat developed into a middle of the order hitter. There is ZERO reason to even think that's possible for CV. ... There are 3 Molinas, and 2 of them make Vazquez look like Ruth. And it's Swihart, not Swithart.
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Post by justinp123 on Nov 13, 2015 10:12:07 GMT -5
I'm sure 5% looks small in a small amount of bats, but what about when someone hits .340 on the season, he's really not that much better than a .250 hitter because he's only hitting 9% better? So that logic really shouldn't apply.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 13, 2015 10:27:20 GMT -5
I think teams realize Swihart is a 24 year old catcher who is ready to start and had a great second half. His value is very high right now, so in that sense it isn't a bad time to trade him. I do agree that they need to be sure that Vazquez is healthy first, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Swihart for a young ace. I thought everyone was on the same page in regards to holding onto both at least for now until CV proves he's fully back. Even then both of these guys stock should be on the rise for the next few seasons. I don't think we can afford to see both these guys' stock rise for a few years......No one is arguing that Swihart won't be better than Vazquez. He will be, no question about it. IMO (which doesn't mean much) CV + a #1 has FAR greater value than Swihart and no #1. CV is coming off TJ surgery, not right arm replacement. From what I've read, several pitchers, which use their arm for far more stressful throwing, come back from TJ at a very successful rate.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Nov 13, 2015 10:30:59 GMT -5
I get that good pitch framing in a game is hard to find, but i'd rather have a .300 hitter and take my chances then to hope that our pitcher, the umpire and the catcher are all aligned. As opposed to a .250 hitter? you know the difference is .05 or 5%. I'd rather focus on more than BA but I wanted to point out the minute difference between a .300 vs. .250 hitter as I think alot of people look at as 50 point difference rather than 5% which it actually is. While you're playing with percentages, consider that a .300 hitter succeeds 20% more often than a .250 hitter. .05 is a huge difference when the very best hitters don't exceed .30 by very much.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:31:12 GMT -5
... 1. Vazquez cannot be the next Molina unless he develops into a GREAT hitter. Molina's bat developed into a middle of the order hitter. There is ZERO reason to even think that's possible for CV. ... There are 3 Molinas, and 2 of them make Vazquez look like Ruth. And it's Swihart, not Swithart. My apologies then people need to clarify but the assumption is that people are taking about Yadir not the other two. Jose wasn't that good but Benji is a way better hitter than CV. You should be praying that CV can get to the level of Benji.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:34:15 GMT -5
I think people are too focused on CV coming back in terms of being able to throw the ball. It affects the batter piece of things as well and that's where he cannot afford any drop off.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 10:45:50 GMT -5
It affects the batter piece of things as well and that's where he cannot afford any drop off. Does it? It's a year of lost development, but I'm not sure why it would have any additional effect on Vazquez at the plate.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2015 11:34:37 GMT -5
A couple observations and opinions: 1. Vazquez cannot literally be the next Yadier Molina unless he develops into a GREAT hitter. Molina's bat developed into a middle of the order hitter. But since that came out of nowhere when he was 28, when he was already a two-time All-Star, what most folks mean when they say that, is that he can be the best defensive catcher in the game while being a decent hitter for a catcher. And there is ZERO EVERY reason to even think that's possible for CV. Here are their age-adjusted Davenport Translations for ages 18 through 24, Molina then Vazquez (.250 is average for a catcher):
.255, .250, .236, .255, .240, .218, .259 .235, .237, .270, .253, .243, .246, inj
CV's actually been more impressive ages 20 to 23, and starting at age 20 he has always projected to be a decent hitting starting catcher.
2. Trading Swithart now would be dumb. He basically just proved to be a very good starting catcher and he's entering his age 24 season (birthday in april). CV is coming off an injury that is unpredictable and could render him a backup type catcher. Oh the horror, take off the fanboy glasses for a minute and get real. Yes, he COULD, should be a great catcher bc his defense is that good and maybe he will hit enough to stay in the lineup. However, he just had TJS and that's s huge deal both for his bat and his throwing ability. People need to grasp that Switharts floor and ceiling are both higher than Vazquez at this point. 3. Even without the injury, there was legit concern by irrational and/or analytically challenged people that CV wouldn't hit enough to stay in the lineup full time. Yes, you can say that his defense is that good that even if he's a .230/.300/.310 hitter he's a valuable starting catcher. And in a vacuum u may be right, but there are other factors at play. Like Is that a valuable starter on a team that's championship caliber. Does the hole he creates in the batting lineup hurt you elsewhere? Meaning you can only have so many holes in the lineup and then you need to offset it everywhere else. This then limits who you can get at other positions and can cause you to over pay because your flexibility is diminished. Then it really hurts your depth because if there's an injury then you are adding a weak bat to a lineup that already has one or maybe two adding another is real bad. There's a team building ripple effect that can't be ignored which should be taken into account when deciding who you want to make part of your core. While it's true that, when assembling a lineup, you basically want to put together the best possible 9 guys without regard to offensive / defensive balance (a run is a run, a win is a win, doesn't matter how you get them), it's also true that, all other things being equal, as a tiebreaker, you go with defense, because it plays better in the post-season. And that reduces the scenarios where it makes more sense to keep Swihart and trade a healthy CV essentially to nil.4. The real truth is this conversation is being had too early as there are too many variables and the players are still developing. They both need to be kept right now because of the CV injury. It's too risky to put your faith in him and his trade value is too low to make him the center piece of a deal. Swithart needs to be this some other teams catcher opening day next year unless the white sox wanted to flip you Sale straight up CV doesn't come, say, 90% of the way back.FIFY.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 13, 2015 11:59:42 GMT -5
There are 3 Molinas, and 2 of them make Vazquez look like Ruth. And it's Swihart, not Swithart. My apologies then people need to clarify but the assumption is that people are taking about Yadir not the other two. Jose wasn't that good but Benji is a way better hitter than CV. You should be praying that CV can get to the level of Benji. How about a bet, one that neither of us may be around to collect? Vazquez will end up with a better career OPS and OPS+ than Benji Molina. What say you? Lots of posters are vastly underestimating Vazquez' potential, in order to make their case. Swihart had a great season in AA at .300/.353/.487, but Vazquez wasn't exactly treading water once he got comfortable: .289/.376/.395. He also outperformed Swihart by a little in AAA and at the same age, though both had relatively small sample sizes before being called up. Vazquez has 201 PAs in his first season at age 23. Here's his line: .240/.308/309. After his first 200 PAs at age 23 this past season, here's Swihart's: .258/.291/.347. I have little doubt that Swihart will, over the long run, hit for more power than Vazquez. But I also believe that Vazquez' secondary skills will play up, that he'll be more than adequate at the plate. What is not in doubt is that Christian Vazquez is, behind the plate, superior in every way, not just to Swihart, but to almost every catcher in the majors. The small sample size we got last season was more than enough to establish that. It's hard to overvalue that. That's why there's an argument about who should be traded. Catchers with that skillset just don't come along all that often. When they do teams pay attention. All that is predicated on Vazquez being healthy of course. If he is, he's one very valuable player even as an average to slightly above average hitter.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 13, 2015 12:29:28 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 12:30:25 GMT -5
Conditioning 6/10 Shirt 10/10
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2015 12:55:47 GMT -5
Try forgetting the numbers for one second and try grasping the concept that he's a young kid, who from all accounts, is a hard worker, and there is a decent chance he improves his pitch framing skills. Does hard work alone suffice to improve pitch framing skills? Can you give some examples of catchers who have improved their pitch framing skills measurably?
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2015 13:01:36 GMT -5
People need to grasp that Switharts floor and ceiling are both higher than Vazquez at this point. It's possible but not reasonable to define "floor" in a way that this statement is true. Vazquez definitely has a better 20% projection right now and in my opinion also a better mean (50%) projection. Yes, the bottom <1% of outcomes for Vazquez is that he's never a major league caliber player again. The chances of Clay Buchholz winning the Cy Young award next year are higher though.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 13, 2015 13:03:26 GMT -5
"I juan to believe."Me too.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 13:05:42 GMT -5
It affects the batter piece of things as well and that's where he cannot afford any drop off. Does it? It's a year of lost development, but I'm not sure why it would have any additional effect on Vazquez at the plate. I don't know if it will but any injury could adversely affect a guy. If someone had shoulder or wrist surgery there is a question as to if he will come Back equally as strong an elbow would be no different. That's kind of the point. We can't assume he's comes back the same. Hell we are acting like every pitcher who had TJS comes back just fine which is not he case. Yes, it's much better than it used to but it's major surgery.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 13:09:57 GMT -5
Eric I can't read all that on my phone but I don't think comparing their numbers at a similar age is a predictor of Vazquez likely becoming what Molina turned into. Molinas progression was abnormal and an outlier. No one could have predicted his bat turning into close to what it was. His improvement was vast and drastic.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2015 13:14:34 GMT -5
Try forgetting the numbers for one second and try grasping the concept that he's a young kid, who from all accounts, is a hard worker, and there is a decent chance he improves his pitch framing skills. Does hard work alone suffice to improve pitch framing skills? Can you give some examples of catchers who have improved their pitch framing skills measurably? I have no idea. It's not like pitch framing stats have been around forever. I would think the more experience you get, the more likely you are to improve. Are you really telling me that all these catchers put up the same damn pitch framing numbers every year? That's there's never any fluctuation, improvement, or deterioration? I have no idea if Swihart could improve enough to be a decent to good pitch framer. All I'm saying is it's way too early to give up on that. Telling me that based on half a season of work, you've determined that it's totally impossible for him to ever improve that aspect of his game makes no sense at all to me. Maybe he never improves or only improves to being mediocre, but there's also a chance he becomes decent at that and that his bat blossoms and he becomes a pretty good two way catcher. You may ultimately be right but I'm not passing judgment that fast with this kid. He's not a finished product. He's still learning.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 13:15:37 GMT -5
My apologies then people need to clarify but the assumption is that people are taking about Yadir not the other two. Jose wasn't that good but Benji is a way better hitter than CV. You should be praying that CV can get to the level of Benji. How about a bet, one that neither of us may be around to collect? Vazquez will end up with a better career OPS and OPS+ than Benji Molina. What say you? Lots of posters are vastly underestimating Vazquez' potential, in order to make their case. Swihart had a great season in AA at .300/.353/.487, but Vazquez wasn't exactly treading water once he got comfortable: .289/.376/.395. He also outperformed Swihart by a little in AAA and at the same age, though both had relatively small sample sizes before being called up. Vazquez has 201 PAs in his first season at age 23. Here's his line: .240/.308/309. After his first 200 PAs at age 23 this past season, here's Swihart's: .258/.291/.347. I have little doubt that Swihart will, over the long run, hit for more power than Vazquez. But I also believe that Vazquez' secondary skills will play up, that he'll be more than adequate at the plate. What is not in doubt is that Christian Vazquez is, behind the plate, superior in every way, not just to Swihart, but to almost every catcher in the majors. The small sample size we got last season was more than enough to establish that. It's hard to overvalue that. That's why there's an argument about who should be traded. Catchers with that skillset just don't come along all that often. When they do teams pay attention. All that is predicated on Vazquez being healthy of course. If he is, he's one very valuable player even as an average to slightly above average hitter. Norm I was just pointing out how asinine it was to say Benji Molina made Vazquez look like Ruth. Benji was a better hitter than you have given him credit for and we'd be ecstatic to have CV put up his numbers. And to everyone, I'm just trying to illustrate that CVs bat is a legit question. Always has been and it still is. There are encouraging signs with some things which is great but the injury hurts his chances (to what degree who knows) and it shouldn't be assumed he's the answer at catcher going forward. It wouldn't surprise me if he were an all-star caliber catcher some day but it wouldn't shock me if he were never much more than a low end starter or back up either.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 13, 2015 13:17:34 GMT -5
vs
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2015 13:20:23 GMT -5
I get that good pitch framing in a game is hard to find, but i'd rather have a .300 hitter and take my chances then to hope that our pitcher, the umpire and the catcher are all aligned. Consider that one of the main reasons why Red Sox pitching was so disappointing last year may have been precisely because they were missing both Vazquez and Hannigan.
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Post by jmei on Nov 13, 2015 13:25:33 GMT -5
Does it? It's a year of lost development, but I'm not sure why it would have any additional effect on Vazquez at the plate. I don't know if it will but any injury could adversely affect a guy. If someone had shoulder or wrist surgery there is a question as to if he will come Back equally as strong an elbow would be no different. That's kind of the point. We can't assume he's comes back the same. Hell we are acting like every pitcher who had TJS comes back just fine which is not he case. Yes, it's much better than it used to but it's major surgery. Eh, a torn UCL is different from a labrum or a tendon sheath injury. Unlike with a shoulder or a wrist, which need three-dimensional range of motion, the elbow is really a simple hinge, and at the plate, all you really need is for it to work. As a hitter, I don't think it'd affect you too much, as evidenced by the handful of position players who have continued to play despite partially or fully torn UCLs (Hector Olivera, Carl Crawford, Miguel Sano, etc.)
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Post by mannofsteele on Nov 13, 2015 13:46:55 GMT -5
vs Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice....
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 13, 2015 13:58:06 GMT -5
I get that good pitch framing in a game is hard to find, but i'd rather have a .300 hitter and take my chances then to hope that our pitcher, the umpire and the catcher are all aligned. Consider that one of the main reasons why Red Sox pitching was so disappointing last year may have been precisely because they were missing both Vazquez and Hannigan. We have to remember it's not just saying which one is better....I believe the consensus would be Blake. We have to remember what Blake can be traded for. At the minimum, a 1A or solid 2....I'd prefer CV AND a 1A over Swihart. Again this is just my take.
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Post by heisenberg on Nov 13, 2015 15:04:54 GMT -5
I think teams realize Swihart is a 24 year old catcher who is ready to start and had a great second half. His value is very high right now, so in that sense it isn't a bad time to trade him. I do agree that they need to be sure that Vazquez is healthy first, but I wouldn't be opposed to trading Swihart for a young ace. I thought everyone was on the same page in regards to holding onto both at least for now until CV proves he's fully back. Even then both of these guys stock should be on the rise for the next few seasons. And you're right. We've already seen in the past what heading into a season with insufficient depth at catcher will do to that season. What I think we're seeing right now is just a lot of herd mentality loading up on the notion of trading Swihart in exchange for some amorphous "ace" that may or may not be available. True, Dombrowski has prepped the masses by saying that any trade may well be painful. But, that doesn't necessarily mean Swihart is the guy who has to go. Personally, I think trading him away would be the kind of mistake we'd regret for a very long time. Finally, to those badmouthing Blake's defense, a reminder that this very site carries the following scouting report on him: Arm: Plus-to-better arm strength. Accurate thrower. Gets out of his crouch easily. Consistently throws out runners at a high percentage.
Field: Consistent sub 2.0 pop times, typically between 1.8-1.9. Athletic behind the plate with quick feet and lateral movements. Frames well, and athleticism provides mobility for excellent blocking skills on balls in the dirt. Future plus defense with plus athleticism.
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