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What Can Be Done to Fix the Sox?
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Post by ethanbein on Nov 13, 2015 15:05:22 GMT -5
Does hard work alone suffice to improve pitch framing skills? Can you give some examples of catchers who have improved their pitch framing skills measurably? Jason Castro comes to mind.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 13, 2015 16:55:25 GMT -5
Eric I can't read all that on my phone but I don't think comparing their numbers at a similar age is a predictor of Vazquez likely becoming what Molina turned into. Molinas progression was abnormal and an outlier. No one could have predicted his bat turning into close to what it was. His improvement was vast and drastic. That's what I said, actually. I was arguing that he projected to be as good a hitter as Molina was before his bat exploded at age 28, which is to say, average for an MLB catcher. Molina was already an All-Star at that point. From 2007 to 2010 he averaged about 4.7 bWAR + pitch framing WAR (2.8 + about 1.9). There's this persistent meme on this board that Vazquez was a great-glove, no-hit prospect. That was never really true based on scouting reports, and certainly not true after he repeated low-A at age 20 and hit .283 / .358 / .505.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 13, 2015 17:17:42 GMT -5
How would the Cubs feel about Swihart and JBJ for Schwarber? He could play LF or 1B for us, me thinks.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Nov 13, 2015 17:27:54 GMT -5
How would the Cubs feel about Swihart and JBJ for Schwarber? He could play LF or 1B for us, me thinks. I'd hesitate to trade a high upside catcher for a 1B/DH, all bat type. I absolutely love Schwarber, don't get me wrong, but I'd probably include JBJ and ask if they'd take others that we have before offering Swihart.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 18:06:34 GMT -5
How would the Cubs feel about Swihart and JBJ for Schwarber? He could play LF or 1B for us, me thinks. I'd hesitate to trade a high upside catcher for a 1B/DH, all bat type. I absolutely love Schwarber, don't get me wrong, but I'd probably include JBJ and ask if they'd take others that we have before offering Swihart. Schwarber looks like a 140-150 wRC+ bat. Even at 1B that's very good. I would give up Swihart for him, and think it's a fair swap. It won't happen though.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 13, 2015 18:36:43 GMT -5
Must say that given we have CV longterm it makes it easier to move BS for the right player. Risks will be taken and only time will tell who is the better player. Fortunetly the sox have many maybes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 13, 2015 18:36:46 GMT -5
Baseball reference has Gray's WAR for last three years at 1.4, 3.2, and 5.8. Remember those are his first three years, Chris Sale first three years 1.1, 2.2 and 5.8. So how exactly does Gray not stack up to Chris Sale? Last Year Chris Sale had a WAR of 3.3 compared to Grays 5.8.
PS I was talking about trading Swihart for Gray not Betts!
Sale was 3 years younger than Gray in those first three years. They're the same age now. For their careers, Sonny Gray has a 3.59 SIERA and Sale has a 2.80 SIERA (lower than Kershaw's). Sale had a K%-BB% of 27.2% last season, which is absurd. Gray was at 13.2%. Sale is right there with Kershaw. Gray isn't even as good as Lester. B-ref's pitching WAR doesn't do those two justice at all. Fangraphs is the opposite. Last year Sale had 6.2 and Gray had 3.8 fWAR. Lets start off by saying that I never said that Gray was better then Sale, just that he is in the same tier. I see both as top 10 pitchers. Yes there is a big difference in strikeouts, but Gray has the edge in hits, whip and era. I don't know how B Ref and fangraphs compute their WARs but Fangraphs clearly values strikeouts more then B Ref. What I do know is that they pitched almost exactly the same innings and Gray gave up less hits, had more complete games and shutouts, had an ERA that was a good size lower, won more games, and had a lower WHIP, while Sale had more strikeouts and less walks. This is why I don't like fangraphs WARs.
Second in what world is Gray not as good as Lester? I think he is clearly better. Gray has a WHIP of 1.08 last year, Lester has never had a season with a WHIP that low. For me no stat is better then WHIP for a pitcher. I see Lester as a top 20 pitcher.
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Post by goldenmonkey34 on Nov 13, 2015 19:32:40 GMT -5
Must say that given we have CV longterm it makes it easier to move BS for the right player. Risks will be taken and only time will tell who is the better player. Fortunetly the sox have many maybes. Once again, people need to understand CV is coming off of TJ surgery and could have a weakened throwing arm. Combine that with the fact we still don't know if he can hit major league pitching considering he only played 50 games showing its almost a necessity that we keep Swihart for this season. We are jumping wayyyyt far ahead by claiming he is the next Molina when in reality we have little to no idea. What if we trade BS this offseason and CV has lingering issues from the injury, then what do we do? Plus if we keep both we can see if BS improves his defense to become more inline with what his scouting report says (which is that he should be an above average defensive catcher who can frame well and throw out runners at high clip), which could change how the sox approach things. Even if he doesn't improve, his offense alone will still make him a valuable commodity as a trading chip
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 13, 2015 20:06:51 GMT -5
Is bring back Ben an option on how to fix the Sox?
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Post by redsox1534 on Nov 13, 2015 21:41:18 GMT -5
I been banging on the trade Jbj an swihart for Schwarber deal for months. Schwarber is Jeff Bagwell talent for my money that's his upside. He's a middle of the order bat who will hit 30 plus bombs and drive in runs and he seems to have to fear of big at bats. I really love him he's the real deal I feel. We need a true #4 hitter that young with upside for now and the future
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 13, 2015 22:08:58 GMT -5
Can we trade for Matt Harvey? I want him Sale or Grey. I like Sale and Harvey better though. To get Sale we would need to include Swihart, so I will look at Harvey. The Mets need players on the big league roster... 2B and CF. What if we offer Holt and Bradley to fill those spots? I know that is not nearly enough for a mid 20's ace pitcher w three years of control. What if,we add Miley to replace him in the rotation? Thats three big league players, on the cheap, who will start for them. I know it is still not going to cut it. What if we add a replacement for Wright? Rafael Devers is our #2 prospect and will be a huge get, hes not Betts, but a very good looking player.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2015 23:57:12 GMT -5
I been banging on the trade Jbj an swihart for Schwarber deal for months. Schwarber is Jeff Bagwell talent for my money that's his upside. He's a middle of the order bat who will hit 30 plus bombs and drive in runs and he seems to have to fear of big at bats. I really love him he's the real deal I feel. We need a true #4 hitter that young with upside for now and the future Why are you banging the JBJ and Swihart for Schwarber deal? The Cubs have their catcher of the future. His name is Willson Contreras and he played very well in AA. They don't need Swihart and they certainly have no desire to lose Schwarber. There would be no incentive whatsoever for Theo to make that kind of deal. At this point the Sox need JBJ anyways, so this suggestion won't happen.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 14, 2015 1:26:24 GMT -5
Can we trade for Matt Harvey? I want him Sale or Grey. I like Sale and Harvey better though. To get Sale we would need to include Swihart, so I will look at Harvey. The Mets need players on the big league roster... 2B and CF. What if we offer Holt and Bradley to fill those spots? I know that is not nearly enough for a mid 20's ace pitcher w three years of control. What if,we add Miley to replace him in the rotation? Thats three big league players, on the cheap, who will start for them. I know it is still not going to cut it. What if we add a replacement for Wright? Rafael Devers is our #2 prospect and will be a huge get, hes not Betts, but a very good looking player. Mets don't want jbj or holt. It's Xander boegarts. That's where a deal starts and ends with Matt Harvey. Only other way is probably 3 of Devers moncada Espinoza benentendi Not sure what all the fuss is over a young cost controlled starter anyway. Just get the check book out and pick your poison. This is the deepest FA pool in starter history. The young cost controlled pitcher we are looking for is hopefully already here in erod Espinoza or koepech
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 14, 2015 1:42:06 GMT -5
Everyone should have it down by now. Dombrowski has his outfield. His impression of the team at the end of last season was ours: great outfield defense; a bunch of very good young hitters; starting pitching that was adequate, benefitting from those young guys, but needing reinforcements. And a bullpen needing a serious upgrade.
He said he wanted a right handed outfield bat and I think he'll get one, and more starting pitching for sure. But the position players may not see much turnover.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 14, 2015 6:33:14 GMT -5
The OF depth is awfully thin at the moment. We better get a solid fourth outfielder.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 14, 2015 7:42:21 GMT -5
Everyone should have it down by now. Dombrowski has his outfield. His impression of the team at the end of last season was ours: great outfield defense; a bunch of very good young hitters; starting pitching that was adequate, benefitting from those young guys, but needing reinforcements. And a bullpen needing a serious upgrade. He said he wanted a right handed outfield bat and I think he'll get one, and more starting pitching for sure. But the position players may not see much turnover. Save this note for future reference.... But that has been my take. I thought that we had been weakest in the pen and knew that DD wanted power arms, Bradley seems such a gamble. If he can hit so well for 50 games,,,,wha happn'd in the others,,,,a baseball Jekll & Hyde.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2015 8:23:05 GMT -5
I'm not a JBJ believer like some are. I'm not even remotely sold on his bat, but I feel a lot better about his chances after last year and I know what kind of person he is which makes me feel even better but I'm extremely worried still. HOWEVER, when going through the GM exercise it became clear that he is needed here because of his salary. They cannot afford to sign a top starter and fix the bullpen if they add salary on the offensive side of things.
Plus, why would you fix an offense that was very good the second half of last year and is getting Hanley and Sandoval back? Betts, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Ortiz and Swithart are 5 great pieces to a lineup and the other four are Pablo/holt, Hanley/Shaw, Castillo and Bradley....
Do not touch the offense. Add a backup outfielder and you have the luxury of it being whoever you want as long as it's right handed because of the flexibility you get from the starters.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2015 8:27:26 GMT -5
As for dumping Hanley and Sandoval by subsidizing the contracts, I don't like that idea unless you barely give much up. Hanley was a disaster but I'd work to fix him because his bat is that good. If you end up paying 10m of his salary a year then you are basically saying having Hanley at 10m a year is not worth it.
Same with Panda, I'd give it another year. The guy traditionally has been a post season monster because he can hit good pitching. That's why he's here. Fortunately, this team can carry him.
They are overpaid, those are sunk cost. Now you need to look deeper into hoe much they need to eat to trade them and see if they can be upgraded for the left over money. I doubt that's possible.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 14, 2015 8:31:23 GMT -5
This is all about that stater and one more bullpen are like a Tony Sipp. Honestly, if they get the starter they need and fill in the bullpen this team is back atop the division.
I'm still firmly in the dump buchholz camp as I believe he is addition by subtraction. Simply by spending his money elsewhere. He's a negative to the team due to his reliable unreliability.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Nov 14, 2015 8:55:18 GMT -5
I'm sure 5% looks small in a small amount of bats, but what about when someone hits .340 on the season, he's really not that much better than a .250 hitter because he's only hitting 9% better? So that logic really shouldn't apply. It's factual and always applies and that was the point.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Dec 1, 2015 22:15:39 GMT -5
Thought June 1 was a little early to start this thread since the Red Sox have a lot of young players and it seemed wise to use the second half of the season to find out as much as possible about what they can do before deciding on any major changes. But the 5th game of the World Series is tonight and once the Series is over things are going to be happening fairly quickly. As most people do, I think the Red Sox should pick up Buchholtz option. I am not necessarily saying he should be on the team next year, but his option year contract amount seems fairly reasonable by today's standards and if the Sox find better starting pitching options elsewhere, they should be able to trade him for something else they may need. The biggest problem concerning the position players is what to do about Ramirez and Sandoval. I just do not see the Red Sox being able to trade Ramirez without eating a major portion of his contract. Not only that, but if the Red Sox trade Ramirez and, God forbid, Ortiz gets hurt, you may find yourself having to trade for a DH while paying Ramirez to DH for someone else. On the other hand, I have zero confidence that Ramirez can play First. While Sandoval might be a little easier to trade, it probably won't be much easier. I think the Red Sox will have them both in Spring Training. I would switch Ramirez to Third, not First and tell the 2 of them that the guy who shows the most in Spring Training will start the year at 3rd, with the other on the bench. Ramirez played Short most of his career but has played some 3rd in the Majors. I am sure he will not be a good at third, but i he is at least more familiar with Third than Left or First. Moreover, he would be involved in far fewer plays at Third than he would be at First. I cringe at the thought of how many low throws he would miss. I would start Vasquez at Pawtucket to see if his arm is OK. If it is, I would bring him up and trade Hanigan for a bullpen arm or prospect in June or July. It is also apparent that they need another outfielder. Even if you assume Bradley and Castillo are going to be good (not in anyway guaranteed) you still need a 4th outfielder. The question is do they go big or just get a reserve type guy. Given their pitching needs and the fact that if Bradley and Castillo are good or Margot or one of the other prospects comes on quickly, the additional outfielder may only need to be a part time player. Since my thinking is to start the year with Shaw at First, it would also be nice if the new outfielder could also play First in case Shaw bombs and Travis isn't ready. If Allen Craig hadn't become totally worthless, he would have been a good fit. They do have to get at least 1 new starting pitcher. i am not sure it has to be a #1, but it has got to be someone who they are sure is better than what they have returning. Without getting at least 1 new starting pitcher, they would be starting with 4 of the 5 guys they start in the rotation last year and that didn't work out very well. I see no reason to think it would work out better this year. I really do not want to lose the first round draft pick so i would prefer the new starter is either Price or Cueto or someone they trade for. They also need 2 new relief pitchers. They might be able to get away with just 1 if they get 2 new starters and move Kelly to the pen. It would be nice if at least one the new relief pitchers throws hard. If they have to trade for the starter I would be willing to trade Owens and one of Moncada, Devers, Margot, and Benitendi, plus another smaller piece or two (Marrero?). I know nobody on this board wants to trade one of those 4 but none of those 4 are not sure things, IMO. I do not think Moncada is a sure thing at Second, for example, and am not sure what his position is going to be. Plus, you are going to have to give something to get something. Anyway, that is the way I would go. One thing I know for sure is that given DD's track record once the Series ends we are probably not going to have to wait too long to find out what his thoughts are and his thoughts are the ones that are going to matter. At least I got the highlighted part of it right.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 2, 2015 19:15:23 GMT -5
Sure looks like we're all in. I was hesitant to go after Price because I wasn't sure the rest of the team is up to snuff. Let's finish the job now.
1. I'd like a power arm in the pen. Willing to deal Miley for a good young one.
2. Need a better 2nd starter. One who will be pitching in October. What does it take to get Strasburg?
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Post by soxfan2015 on Dec 2, 2015 19:27:57 GMT -5
Sure looks like we're all in. I was hesitant to go after Price because I wasn't sure the rest of the team is up to snuff. Let's finish the job now. 1. I'd like a power arm in the pen. Willing to deal Miley for a good young one. 2. Need a better 2nd starter. One who will be pitching in October. What does it take to get Strasburg? Eduardo Rodriguez.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 2, 2015 20:55:19 GMT -5
Jeff Passan @jeffpassan 25s26 seconds ago Potentially great arm out there to be had: Marlins have non-tendered Henderson Alvarez, source tells Yahoo Sports.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 2, 2015 21:16:37 GMT -5
If by great he means young but can't miss a bat to save his life, then yes Alvarez is great.
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