steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 21, 2015 17:53:37 GMT -5
Cosart done after 4IP, no hits, 3BB, 3K's. Nice first start. Will need to improve control Impressive! He has a great arm. And a solid pedigree.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2015 20:02:14 GMT -5
Lets no go too crazy on his power potential based on Low-A stats. Remember when we thought Bogaerts had 65+ power based on a Low-A home run explosion that dwarfs what Guerra is doing? I do take it as a positive sign though that he can drive the ball. It's not that crazy to suggest his power tool potential is higher than 30 based on his Low-A stats. Yeah a couple things on Guerra: 1) Bogaerts and KDLC are completely different players and poor comparators for Guerra. 2) That said, this power we're seeing out of him is intriguing given how low the power ceiling is supposed to be. I wonder if this is like the power equivalent of Garin Cecchini stealing 51 bases in Greenville when all of the scouting was like "no, really though, he's not going to do this ever again no matter what the numbers say," or if it's legitimately showing he can run into a few.
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 21, 2015 21:33:05 GMT -5
2) That said, this power we're seeing out of him is intriguing given how low the power ceiling is supposed to be. I wonder if this is like the power equivalent of Garin Cecchini stealing 51 bases in Greenville when all of the scouting was like "no, really though, he's not going to do this ever again no matter what the numbers say," or if it's legitimately showing he can run into a few. It seems a lot easier, at least to me, to pile up stolen base totals in the low minors with pure instincts than it is to hit for power with few tools. It's also not like the scouting community has completely written his power off: Kiley, for example, had him with future 45 power even before this season and said he had 10-15 home run potential down the road. If I had to guess, based on what he's done and what others have said, he's going to make a few scouts look a little silly when he's putting up average or better power numbers in Salem next year. That being said, I'm still worried about the strikeouts, and hopefully he can continue the improvement he's shown lately, at least (K rate is down to 23% in June).
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Post by SALNotes on Jun 21, 2015 22:36:35 GMT -5
I've seen 3 of Guerra's 8 homeruns this yr. the 1st was a wall scraper down the left field line that just cleared the monster at the 310' sign.
He hit 2 at the game I attended last week and they were both shots that cleared the bull pen in RF 350+.
He's got power
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Post by burythehammer on Jun 22, 2015 5:44:02 GMT -5
Wasn't he the guy who supposedly might walk into a couple home runs a year in the majors? 8 home runs in half a season at age 19 probably indicates a little bit better power than that. Lets no go too crazy on his power potential based on Low-A stats. Remember when we thought Bogaerts had 65+ power based on a Low-A home run explosion that dwarfs what Guerra is doing? I do take it as a positive sign though that he can drive the ball. You realize you're warning against SSS by using an example of SSS (Bogaerts' big league power so far), right?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 22, 2015 6:30:18 GMT -5
I've seen 3 of Guerra's 8 homeruns this yr. the 1st was a wall scraper down the left field line that just cleared the monster at the 310' sign. He hit 2 at the game I attended last week and they were both shots that cleared the bull pen in RF 350+. He's got power Saw 2 in last year's GCL Finals at Tampa (1 in Game 1, other in game 3) He pulled one to RF and other was closer to RC/C. I'd guess at the one to RC/C going over 400f, it was really crushed. Neither was any doubt.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 22, 2015 6:51:02 GMT -5
I saw him hit one in the GCL last season and it was a line-drive to right, very well struck. Contact is his biggest concern. I like a lot of his game, but the K's are way too high for low A.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2015 9:15:53 GMT -5
2) That said, this power we're seeing out of him is intriguing given how low the power ceiling is supposed to be. I wonder if this is like the power equivalent of Garin Cecchini stealing 51 bases in Greenville when all of the scouting was like "no, really though, he's not going to do this ever again no matter what the numbers say," or if it's legitimately showing he can run into a few. It seems a lot easier, at least to me, to pile up stolen base totals in the low minors with pure instincts than it is to hit for power with few tools. It's also not like the scouting community has completely written his power off: Kiley, for example, had him with future 45 power even before this season and said he had 10-15 home run potential down the road. If I had to guess, based on what he's done and what others have said, he's going to make a few scouts look a little silly when he's putting up average or better power numbers in Salem next year. That being said, I'm still worried about the strikeouts, and hopefully he can continue the improvement he's shown lately, at least (K rate is down to 23% in June). Yeah definitely not a perfect comparison, that's for sure. What I was thinking, though, is that in Low A, you're going to get more mistake pitches to hammer and can maybe get away a little more with picking a pitch to swing from your heels on and just taking a G hack. I love the .214 ISO. Not in love with the 29% K rate. We'll have to see if he can keep getting away with that or if he needs to adjust when he faces better pitching.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2015 9:47:08 GMT -5
The K-rate is way too obscene for me to consider him a legit prospect at this point. K-rates don't typically go down as they rise through the minors unless some kind of major adjustments are made like JBJ and Xander have done between this year and last.
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