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6/29-7/2 Red Sox @ Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by sox1fan on Jun 29, 2015 15:31:55 GMT -5
I know that I was at least one of the fans who perhaps liked the players, but shook my head at the contract numbers. I was also very concerned about Sandoval's weight, and the baggage that Hanley brought. Having said that, I believed in my heart of hearts that Ramirez would be OK, as Ortiz was here, and Sandoval was one of those freaky players that were good in spite of their weight (see Wells, David). I also didn't believe that they had the best lineup in baseball because there were still many questions to be answered: 1. Would Pedroia return to the Pedey we know and love (seems to be a "yes" at this point) 2. Would Victorino stay healthy (LOL, in retrospect) 3. Would Ortiz continue to be ageless (well, he has 12 homers, but his average has been steadily impacted over the last several years) 4. Would Napoli rebound in a contract year (answer is a firm NO) 5. Would Bogey and Betts take those leaps they seemed to be primed for (with Bogey this seems to be a yes, but the jury is out with Betts) 6. How would they hit LHP as a group (well, this is obviously one of the key Achilles' heels this season) 7. What about Rusney, would he be an impact player this year? Were it not for Brock, this team would be even farther behind in the division. He continues to be a breath of fresh air, but he isn't an everyday player...he is subject to maddening slumps and is way too streaky for my taste. You really think anyone questioned how they'd hit LHP before the season? No one was asking all those questions. They weren't counting on all of those things. They only needed one of Victorino, Castillo or Craig to hit. I missed that you think the jury is still out on Betts. No it's not. He's on pace for a ~5 fWAR season as a 22 year old. Albeit a small sample size, but Betts is still showing signs of being streaky, and prone to prolonged slumps. All-Star caliber players rarely slump for very long. Don't get me wrong, Betts has been excellent this year, but when considering the (hope) that he was an All-Star caliber player, this is the basis for my reasoning. I can't explain why I felt the team would struggle collectively vs LHP, but I just had a feeling. I believe the down seasons of Ortiz and Napoli last year, coupled with the adjustment period for Hanley and Sandoval would factor into this. No one could have projected that Sandoval would be incredibly bad hitting LHP, but Ortiz is also showing signs of his age when it comes to this fact. The loss of Vazquez really impacted this team negatively, although Swihart has been admirable in his short time this season (and his offense appears to be coming around). It's unknown how he is actually calling games, however. He appears to be doing OK, but there haven't been any pitchers forthcoming regarding it. Vazquez would have had to adjust to all new pitchers, as well. Agree that hitting is coming around, although the "clutch" factor seems to be way down this season. In 2014 the Red Sox Clutch rating as a team was -0.48. In 2015, it's a shocking -5.02. I believe this is a major factor for the teams failings, as a whole.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jun 29, 2015 16:56:49 GMT -5
Betts has been pretty unlucky this year in regards to hard hit balls hit at people and his BABIP reflects that if you compare him to similar players. Betts has been the 5th best offensive CF in the AL this year and that includes the bad luck and fact he's 22.
I think the downfall of their defense was very unpredictable. No one expected Hanley or Sandoval to be this bad and guys like Pedroia and Napoli regressed as well. When you combine that with a bunch of pitch to contact starters, it's easy to see how almost every pitcher on their team has a massive gap between their FIP and ERA.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 29, 2015 17:30:19 GMT -5
You really think anyone questioned how they'd hit LHP before the season? No one was asking all those questions. They weren't counting on all of those things. They only needed one of Victorino, Castillo or Craig to hit. I missed that you think the jury is still out on Betts. No it's not. He's on pace for a ~5 fWAR season as a 22 year old. Albeit a small sample size, but Betts is still showing signs of being streaky, and prone to prolonged slumps. All-Star caliber players rarely slump for very long. Don't get me wrong, Betts has been excellent this year, but when considering the (hope) that he was an All-Star caliber player, this is the basis for my reasoning. Mookie Betts hasn't slumped. He was just extremely unlucky for the first two months of this season and had a BABIP of about .240 that reflected this. This month he has finally stopped getting unlucky and the line drives that he is hitting are not being hit directly at players. His 2.2 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR is pretty much the definition of what an All-Star is. Rule of thumb is that usually an All-Star puts up a WAR between 4-5 and a Superstar puts up a WAR between 5-6. Only the best put up WAR's above 6. Mookie is on pace to produce a 4.6 fWAR and a 5.9 bWAR. The jury isn't out. These numbers are much higher than most 22 year olds. These are numbers that should improve as he reaches his prime.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2015 17:53:52 GMT -5
fWARs are lower because of park effects. Fenway is a much friendlier home ballpark than SF and LA. And Sandoval especially was expected to get a big boost to his slash line as a result. The runner-up poster presentation at this year's SABR conference, by economics professor Heather O'Neill, looked at the first year of FA contracts with statistics so advanced they made my head spin. Two years ago she had done this analysis for walk years, and found a significant career-year effect -- the reason why she found one where others had failed was that she treated the players who were retiring differently. For this year, she extended her methodology to look at the first year of the new contract, and she found a statistically significant "shirking" effect. (This time, she used a regression formula to predict when a player might retire in the future.) It kicks in especially for 5-year contracts. It's just human nature. You bust your butt one winter to get a new contract, and you don't have a real desire to work hard the next winter, and kid yourself that you don't have to. Ideally, you've got enough pride and desire to win that you bust your butt at least a little after the first, disappointing season. Josh Beckett pretty much alternated good and not-so-good seasons his whole career with the Red Sox, and the difference between the two came entirely after 50 and especially after 75 pitches.
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 29, 2015 18:03:06 GMT -5
fWARs are lower because of park effects. Fenway is a much friendlier home ballpark than SF and LA. And Sandoval especially was expected to get a big boost to his slash line as a result. The runner-up poster presentation at this year's SABR conference, by economics professor Heather O'Neill, looked at the first year of FA contracts with statistics so advanced they made my head spin. Two years ago she had done this analysis for walk years, and found a significant career-year effect -- the reason why she found one where others had failed was that she treated the players who were retiring differently. For this year, she extended her methodology to look at the first year of the new contract, and she found a statistically significant "shirking" effect. (This time, she used a regression formula to predict when a player might retire in the future.) It kicks in especially for 5-year contracts. It's just human nature. You bust your butt one winter to get a new contract, and you don't have a real desire to work hard the next winter, and kid yourself that you don't have to. Ideally, you've got enough pride and desire to win that you bust your butt at least a little after the first, disappointing season. Josh Beckett pretty much alternated good and not-so-good seasons his whole career with the Red Sox, and the difference between the two came entirely after 50 and especially after 75 pitches. See the second part here for a rebuttal to that paper (her age adjustment is way too harsh, and since older players are more likely to be on a contract year, it looks like players on contract years exceed expectations).
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 29, 2015 18:04:48 GMT -5
Albeit a small sample size, but Betts is still showing signs of being streaky, and prone to prolonged slumps. So, what you're saying is, he's a baseball player. We already knew this. [Citation needed.] Yup, and since that has no predictive value whatsoever, good news for the future...
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 29, 2015 18:12:10 GMT -5
Betts has been pretty unlucky this year in regards to hard hit balls hit at people and his BABIP reflects that if you compare him to similar players. Betts has been the 5th best offensive CF in the AL this year and that includes the bad luck and fact he's 22. I think the downfall of their defense was very unpredictable. No one expected Hanley or Sandoval to be this bad and guys like Pedroia and Napoli regressed as well. When you combine that with a bunch of pitch to contact starters, it's easy to see how almost every pitcher on their team has a massive gap between their FIP and ERA. Indeed, if Hanley had managed to rock a whole -15 DRS / 150, and Sandoval, Pedroia, and Napoli had played as they had the last few years, they'd be somewhere between 3rd and 8th in DRS. Hanley (versus that worst-case scenario), Sandoval and Pedroia have all cost the team about a win apiece already. Let's see ... 3 wins of bad BABIP luck, 3 wins of bad clutch hitting, 3 runs of bad defense nobody saw coming, 2 wins of bad clutch pitching, probably 2 wins of catcher injuries. Granted, I'm not including all the things that went surprisingly well (e.g., Xander's defense), but this was a terrific roster coming into the season.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 18:26:42 GMT -5
Haaahaha... Seriously Panda?
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Post by charliezink16 on Jun 29, 2015 18:27:01 GMT -5
Someone please GIF that Sandoval swing.
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Post by rafael on Jun 29, 2015 18:27:17 GMT -5
Sandoval had to jump to hit that ball and still managed to hit a grounder. Unbelievable.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 29, 2015 18:32:21 GMT -5
Holy ____ I'm so sick of Leon.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 18:32:35 GMT -5
Is there anything more hopeless than Leon up in a 2 out RISP situation?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Jun 29, 2015 18:35:35 GMT -5
Is there anything more hopeless than Leon up in a 2 out RISP situation? Jon Lester.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 18:43:49 GMT -5
Caught a break there.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 29, 2015 18:43:57 GMT -5
Blue Jays try to imitate the Sox in every imaginable way.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 18:53:44 GMT -5
Bogaerts slowly but surely finding his power.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 29, 2015 18:54:18 GMT -5
Not really considering Russell Martin should have never been on to begin with. That ball hit the bat.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 29, 2015 18:55:01 GMT -5
Way to go middle of the order!
That's how to get the runners home from 3rd with less than 2 outs...
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 29, 2015 19:00:33 GMT -5
Ortiz and Sandoval's at bats... yuck. Napoli was expected. Yay Xander!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 29, 2015 19:03:20 GMT -5
...Albeit a small sample size, but Betts is still showing signs of being streaky, and prone to prolonged slumps. All-Star caliber players rarely slump for very long. Don't get me wrong, Betts has been excellent this year, but when considering the (hope) that he was an All-Star caliber player, this is the basis for my reasoning. You nailed it. It's a very small sample size. And the jury isn't out on Betts, it was sent home because of a mistrial. He is a borderline All Star, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was picked for the team.
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Post by thursty on Jun 29, 2015 19:13:08 GMT -5
All credit to Xander; I don't even recognize him from 2014, where teams were shifting against him (a rookie RHH no less). Has completely remade himself in a year - very impressive
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 19:24:01 GMT -5
Love it Mookie.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 29, 2015 19:25:27 GMT -5
Mookie's swing reminds me of Andrew McCutchen when he first came up. Lightning quick wrists.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Jun 29, 2015 19:31:34 GMT -5
Xander needs to get his lower half more involved if he's going to find his power stroke and start getting pitched around more often. He's been very good though so I'll accept that as a gradual process.
Good to see Mookie go oppo one AB then drive a triple into the gap the next. Was nervous that he was falling back into a slump.
From here on tonight I'll be rooting Bradley on extra hard. Kid needs a hit to get some confidence going. He's striking out a lot which is disappointing.
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atzar
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Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 29, 2015 19:44:28 GMT -5
I have a more positive opinion on De Aza than many of you, but I dislike the stupid outs. Not tagging the base on a steal attempt, getting thrown out at second on a ball that was never a double... I can do without that.
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