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2015 Trade Deadline News and Discussion
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Post by ethanbein on Jul 29, 2015 15:45:57 GMT -5
As mentioned, you cannot judge players solely by their year-to-date stats, especially when the major difference between them is small samples of defensive metrics. You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. Would you really rather have Brock Holt than Ben Zobrist for just the rest of the season?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2015 15:48:11 GMT -5
You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. Would you really rather have Brock Holt than Ben Zobrist for just the rest of the season? I'd rather have Zobrist, but I'd give up more for Holt.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2015 15:53:57 GMT -5
You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. Would you really rather have Brock Holt than Ben Zobrist for just the rest of the season? If I needed a second baseman or RF, yes, I would really rather have Holt. Bonus: You get him for 4 more seasons after this season, too, at minimal dollar cost.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 15:56:23 GMT -5
As mentioned, you cannot judge players solely by their year-to-date stats, especially when the major difference between them is small samples of defensive metrics. You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 15:58:20 GMT -5
It's like you are taking your Joe Kelly doesn't really suck because advanced metrics says so and flipping it over to say Brock Holt isn't as good a player even though advanced metrics say so. One thing those two opinions share in common: when evaluating a player, you have to look beyond what they've done in the current season. Good players have bad seasons and bad players have good seasons.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2015 16:05:37 GMT -5
You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 And if I'm the GM I'm betting you, ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA will be wrong come October 1, and I will put $20 in the SoxProspects tip jar if I'm wrong.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 29, 2015 16:06:59 GMT -5
You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 That all got brought up before and so did that Zobrist doesn't play 1b, doesn't play CF(recently) and is inferior to Holt defensively at every IF position, even H2H for the rest of this season. The fancy offensive stat numbers are nut a really true picture of everything there. Holt will get on base and that big bonus of being around another 4 seasons just can't be overlooked either.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:10:02 GMT -5
By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 And if I'm the GM I'm betting you, ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA will be wrong come October 1, and I will put $20 in the SoxProspects tip jar if I'm wrong. Mike wouldn't think kindly of wagering donations, but let's try this. Player who accumulates the most fWAR from now through the end of the season wins. Winner sets the loser's profile picture through January 1, 2016. Deal? (For scorekeeping purposes, through today, Holt has accumulated 2.2 fWAR and Zobrist has accumulated 1.1 fWAR.)
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 29, 2015 16:12:02 GMT -5
It's like you are taking your Joe Kelly doesn't really suck because advanced metrics says so and flipping it over to say Brock Holt isn't as good a player even though advanced metrics say so. One thing those two opinions share in common: when evaluating a player, you have to look beyond what they've done in the current season. Good players have bad seasons and bad players have good seasons. Okay but since Holt has been given a chance to play. Which was starting last season. When has he had a bad season? I get that Zobrist is good and depending on what you want you might want him more than Holt maybe? But I think the same can be said for Holt. Some might prefer him today to Zobrist. It's when you factor in age and control that there is no way Holt cannot be more valuable. At least if Holt is not than I understand less about how professional baseball works than I thought I did.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 29, 2015 16:13:36 GMT -5
You we're the one who mentioned better "present" player. Body of work, experience, it's Zobrist. Current ability, value, experience at more positions in a pinch and younger legs, Holt. Unless you want to parse your own use of the word "present." Which is fine. Go ahead. By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 So by "present value" you really meant future value for the rest of this season only?
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:13:53 GMT -5
That all got brought up before and so did that Zobrist doesn't play 1b, doesn't play CF(recently) and is inferior to Holt defensively at every IF position, even H2H for the rest of this season. The fancy offensive stat numbers are nut a really true picture of everything there. Holt will get on base and that big bonus of being around another 4 seasons just can't be overlooked either. Holt is more versatile and a better defender, but Zobrist is the better offensive player. Even if we're just looking at year-to-date stats, Holt's .284/.364/.395 is unambiguously worse than Zobrist's .268/.354/.447.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:15:21 GMT -5
By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 So by "present value" you really meant future value for the rest of this season only? By "present value" I mean literally the value that he has today. How a player has performed so far this year should matter to an acquiring team only insofar as it affects their projection of him going forward.
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Post by thebrassbuckle1993 on Jul 29, 2015 16:15:56 GMT -5
By "present value" I mean rest of season projected performance. How a player performed in the last three months is not necessarily how they're going to perform the next three months. I have already mentioned how the projection systems see Zobrist as a significantly better rest-of-season player, but to reiterate: ZiPS: Zobrist: 119 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 92 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR/600 PAs Steamer: Zobrist: 121 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR/600 PAs Holt: 90 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR/600 PAs PECOTA (rest of season WARP projection): Zobrist: 1.0 Holt: 0.4 And if I'm the GM I'm betting you, ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA will be wrong come October 1, and I will put $20 in the SoxProspects tip jar if I'm wrong. This. Maybe Zobrist ends up with a slightly higher wRC+ and WAR, but definitely not to that degree if Holt just played one or two positions the rest of the year (like I imagine the Royals will do with Zobrist) so he doesn't wear out.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 29, 2015 16:17:40 GMT -5
So by "present value" you really meant future value for the rest of this season only? By "present value" I mean literally the value that he has today. How a player has performed so far this year should matter to an acquiring team only insofar as it affects their projection of him going forward. Yes, and there is no question Brock Holt's "value that he has today" is much higher than that of Ben Zobrist. Doesn't necessarily mean he is the "better" player, but there is no doubt he has much more value at this point in time.
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Post by thebrassbuckle1993 on Jul 29, 2015 16:20:58 GMT -5
By "present value" I mean literally the value that he has today. How a player has performed so far this year should matter to an acquiring team only insofar as it affects their projection of him going forward. Yes, and there is no question Brock Holt's "value that he has today" is much higher than that of Ben Zobrist. Doesn't necessarily mean he is the "better" player, but there is no doubt he has much more value at this point in time. Especially if you want one of them to play Second Base or Right Field consistently.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:25:32 GMT -5
One thing those two opinions share in common: when evaluating a player, you have to look beyond what they've done in the current season. Good players have bad seasons and bad players have good seasons. Okay but since Holt has been given a chance to play. Which was starting last season. When has he had a bad season? I get that Zobrist is good and depending on what you want you might want him more than Holt maybe? But I think the same can be said for Holt. Some might prefer him today to Zobrist. It's when you factor in age and control that there is no way Holt cannot be more valuable. At least if Holt is not than I understand less about how professional baseball works than I thought I did. Since the start of 2014, Holt has hit .282/.343/.386 (104 wRC+) and performed at a 3.4 fWAR/600 PA level. Which is really good! But (a) during that same time period, Zobrist is at .271/.353/.411 (120 wRC+) and 4.3 fWAR/600 PAs, (b) Holt's performance during that period has been propped up by a .364 BABIP that seems unsustainably high (he's a high-BABIP player, but not that high), and (c) you can't ignore Holt's pre-2014 track record (both minors and majors), which is good but not great. To be clear: I have not argued that, when you consider their respective contractual statuses, Holt should be less valuable than Zobrist. Four extra years of cheap team control is obviously super valuable. My point is that, at midseason, teams put a premium on rest-of-season performance, Zobrist is likely the better rest-of-season player, and so the trade value of Holt and Zobrist is likely closer than you might think. I'm not sure if the Royals offer that same package for Holt.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:28:45 GMT -5
By "present value" I mean literally the value that he has today. How a player has performed so far this year should matter to an acquiring team only insofar as it affects their projection of him going forward. Yes, and there is no question Brock Holt's "value that he has today" is much higher than that of Ben Zobrist. Doesn't necessarily mean he is the "better" player, but there is no doubt he has much more value at this point in time. That absolutely is in question. Even if you disagree with my ultimate conclusion, I hope you'll concede the point that a team that wants to go all-in on 2015 (as the Royals look to be) could look at Zobrist versus Holt and conclude the former is more valuable.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 29, 2015 16:37:50 GMT -5
That all got brought up before and so did that Zobrist doesn't play 1b, doesn't play CF(recently) and is inferior to Holt defensively at every IF position, even H2H for the rest of this season. The fancy offensive stat numbers are nut a really true picture of everything there. Holt will get on base and that big bonus of being around another 4 seasons just can't be overlooked either. Holt is more versatile and a better defender, but Zobrist is the better offensive player. Even if we're just looking at year-to-date stats, Holt's .284/.364/.395 is unambiguously worse than Zobrist's .268/.354/.447. I get you there, that's just not the end of the story, it's like the 1st chapter in a very long book where Holt is ahead, or finishes ahead in every other chapter.. Control, defense, versatility, age. Just can't go out and proclaim (not saying just you) that Zobrist is a better hitter, therefore he's a better player -OR- worth more via trade. I can't see either being close to true.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 29, 2015 16:38:48 GMT -5
Yes, and there is no question Brock Holt's "value that he has today" is much higher than that of Ben Zobrist. Doesn't necessarily mean he is the "better" player, but there is no doubt he has much more value at this point in time. That absolutely is in question. Even if you disagree with my ultimate conclusion, I hope you'll concede the point that a team that wants to go all-in on 2015 (as the Royals look to be) could look at Zobrist versus Holt and conclude the former is more valuable. Sure some team could look at two similar players and say that the better offensive player with just 2 months left on his contract is more valuable than the 7 years younger, better defensive, more versatile player, with 2 months and 4 more years of team control left on his contract. But that would just be bad GMing. And I'm not saying that the Royals made a horrible mistake, because there is no clue whether the Red Sox have even made Brock Holt available. I will agree with that a team may prefer Zobrist to Holt based on need such as the need to add a little more offense. But that doesn't mean that player has more value in general, it just means the team is looking to fill a need rather than get the most value.
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Post by thegoo13 on Jul 29, 2015 16:42:30 GMT -5
Okay but since Holt has been given a chance to play. Which was starting last season. When has he had a bad season? I get that Zobrist is good and depending on what you want you might want him more than Holt maybe? But I think the same can be said for Holt. Some might prefer him today to Zobrist. It's when you factor in age and control that there is no way Holt cannot be more valuable. At least if Holt is not than I understand less about how professional baseball works than I thought I did. Since the start of 2014, Holt has hit .282/.343/.386 (104 wRC+) and performed at a 3.4 fWAR/600 PA level. Which is really good! But (a) during that same time period, Zobrist is at .271/.353/.411 (120 wRC+) and 4.3 fWAR/600 PAs, (b) Holt's performance during that period has been propped up by a .364 BABIP that seems unsustainably high (he's a high-BABIP player, but not that high), and (c) you can't ignore Holt's pre-2014 track record (both minors and majors), which is good but not great. To be clear: I have not argued that, when you consider their respective contractual statuses, Holt should be less valuable than Zobrist. Four extra years of cheap team control is obviously super valuable. My point is that, at midseason, teams put a premium on rest-of-season performance, Zobrist is likely the better rest-of-season player, and so the trade value of Holt and Zobrist is likely closer than you might think. I'm not sure if the Royals offer that same package for Holt. Gotcha. It is interesting. At the same time you can't really say though that they wouldn't have offered the same package right? Or that another team might offer even more for all the reasons previously mentioned. He is a good player. No reason to trade him unless something they really want comes back but it would be interesting to see what his value is? And maybe there is something to the Rutledge trade? Different player but maybe Ben thinks he could perform in kind of the same way? Maybe that did clear the way for a Holt trade as Chris suggested is possible?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2015 16:43:51 GMT -5
And if I'm the GM I'm betting you, ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA will be wrong come October 1, and I will put $20 in the SoxProspects tip jar if I'm wrong. Mike wouldn't think kindly of wagering donations, but let's try this. Player who accumulates the most fWAR from now through the end of the season wins. Winner sets the loser's profile picture through January 1, 2016. Deal? (For scorekeeping purposes, through today, Holt has accumulated 2.2 fWAR and Zobrist has accumulated 1.1 fWAR.) I'm all in.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 29, 2015 16:45:32 GMT -5
I'll be rooting for Guidas unless Holt gets traded, then I'll root for jmei.
I don't know the record but jmei tends to win when he bets his avatar.
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 16:49:14 GMT -5
I will agree with that a team may prefer Zobrist to Holt based on need such as the need to add a little more offense. But that doesn't mean that player has more value in general, it just means the team is looking to fill a need rather than get the most value. Yeah, the above is basically the entirety of my argument. Certainly, were I the GM, I'd value Holt more than Zobrist.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2015 16:56:47 GMT -5
Yes, and there is no question Brock Holt's "value that he has today" is much higher than that of Ben Zobrist. Doesn't necessarily mean he is the "better" player, but there is no doubt he has much more value at this point in time. That absolutely is in question. Even if you disagree with my ultimate conclusion, I hope you'll concede the point that a team that wants to go all-in on 2015 (as the Royals look to be) could look at Zobrist versus Holt and conclude the former is more valuable. A rational person who sees two 'goods' may place a higher value on good 'A' vs good 'B' based on taste/need/want/etc. But if the quantity of good 'B' is increased, at some point the rational person will decide to go with good 'B' as long as good 'B' has remained a 'good' (at some point all goods become reach a negative value - but I don't think that's relevant here). It's completely reasonable to argue that a half season of Zobrist is more valuable than a half season of Holt. But arguing that a half season of Zobrist is more valuable than 9 half season of Holt is a tough pill to swallow, even if you are heavily weighing the first half season over the proceeding 8 half seasons. You have made a case for the half season of Zobrist being more valuable than the half season of Holt, but you have only said that it's reasonable that good 'A' is more valuable than 9 of good 'B' without making any case - I can only assume that's because you realize it would be extremely difficult to do so. Only other view I can see is that you're claiming that Drayton Moore is making an irrational judgement. I don't mean to pile-on, but there's a reason why a slew of posters are disagreeing with you on this subject. Hope the above clarifies things a bit. (and hope Holt isn't traded for anything less than what Zobrist returned - although I realize there are some who think he is a pumpkin)
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Post by jmei on Jul 29, 2015 17:10:37 GMT -5
It's completely reasonable to argue that a half season of Zobrist is more valuable than a half season of Holt. But arguing that a half season of Zobrist is more valuable than 9 half season of Holt is a tough pill to swallow, even if you are heavily weighing the first half season over the proceeding 8 half seasons. You have made a case for the half season of Zobrist being more valuable than the half season of Holt, but you have only said that it's reasonable that good 'A' is more valuable than 9 of good 'B' without making any case - I can only assume that's because you realize it would be extremely difficult to do so. Only other view I can see is that you're claiming that Drayton Moore is making an irrational judgement. Eh, if a GM buys into Steamer's projection of both players (which sees Zobrist as literally three times better than Holt), I could well see him rationally preferring Zobrist's projected 1.5 rest-of-season WAR (plus whatever he contributes in the playoffs) over Holt's projected 0.4 ROS WAR in 2015 and four years of 1.2 WAR production (once you take into account the strong preference for near-term production, a general bias in favor of offense over defense, and the undervaluing of below-average players).
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