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Roster construction for 2016
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,790
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Post by mobaz on Oct 9, 2015 8:14:03 GMT -5
Buchholz has actually been a true #1 for the Sox for several runs of 100+IP. His 11.7M AAV is half of Porcello's and a third of a Price contract. If he piched closer to 200 innings he would be worth a Price contract. Not alot of 200IP guys out there anyways. The only gamble on his option comes from the number of IP over 100. Even if Dave wants to replace him, he has to sign him first and demonstrate his health in ST ... At which point Dave may see him as a healthy TOR dominant starter and decide to keep him. IMO, get a good pitcher, keep Buch, and keep depth in AAA to cover 80 -100IP if necessary. Concur. On a related note, I don't think the rotation can sustain having both Buch and Joe Kelly as beginning of the year starters. Kelly, even when on, is always a short start, averaging less than 6 innings; Buch has his short days as well, and presumably his AAAA cover is not an innings-eater. This could put a huge strain on the bullpen at the start of the year to "make up" innings, which I think caused a sort of death spiral for the pen this season. I think if they keep Buch they need to move Kelly or commit to him as the long man or high leverage reliever. If they do move Buch I think there's a little leeway to give Kelly one more round as starter.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 9, 2015 9:40:58 GMT -5
Buchholz has actually been a true #1 for the Sox for several runs of 100+IP. His 11.7M AAV is half of Porcello's and a third of a Price contract. If he piched closer to 200 innings he would be worth a Price contract. Not alot of 200IP guys out there anyways. The only gamble on his option comes from the number of IP over 100. Even if Dave wants to replace him, he has to sign him first and demonstrate his health in ST ... At which point Dave may see him as a healthy TOR dominant starter and decide to keep him. IMO, get a good pitcher, keep Buch, and keep depth in AAA to cover 80 -100IP if necessary. Concur. On a related note, I don't think the rotation can sustain having both Buch and Joe Kelly as beginning of the year starters. Kelly, even when on, is always a short start, averaging less than 6 innings; Buch has his short days as well, and presumably his AAAA cover is not an innings-eater. This could put a huge strain on the bullpen at the start of the year to "make up" innings, which I think caused a sort of death spiral for the pen this season. I think if they keep Buch they need to move Kelly or commit to him as the long man or high leverage reliever. If they do move Buch I think there's a little leeway to give Kelly one more round as starter. Buchholz is not going to return the desired value with the present health question hovering over his future performance. DD should take the modest option, then, based upon his spring training showing, either put him at the TOTR or realize the desired return on a trade. As for Kelly, the fact that he has been a "short" starter doesn't mean he'll always be relegated to that niche. The staff has shown patience in him. Perhaps 2016 is the breakout season he envisaged for himself at the start of the year. With his repertoire, he fits in more as a starter than a reliever. Besides, has he ever been put in that role? It takes a certain mindset to be a successful RP, not just any old guy who throws in the high 90s.
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Post by taftreign on Oct 9, 2015 20:13:26 GMT -5
The 2015/2016 quailifying offer has been set at $15.8 million up from $15.3 million last year and $14.1 million the year before that. Not a factor unless the team changes their mind and declines Buchholz's option and offers him a QO instead which he would then likely decline in search of a multi year deal.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 9, 2015 21:34:13 GMT -5
The 2015/2016 quailifying offer has been set at $15.8 million up from $15.3 million last year and $14.1 million the year before that. Not a factor unless the team changes their mind and declines Buchholz's option and offers him a QO instead which he would then likely decline in search of a multi year deal. They're not going to decline his option. Even if they don't plan on having him on the team next year, the trade return will be better than the Supp pick.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2015 2:12:36 GMT -5
I don't understand why anyone would want Buchholz on this team next season. His trends are tiresome and it's been long enough. He offers terrible stretches and amazing stretches and always misses a lot of time. He's the definition of unreliable and there is no reason to think that going to change. Even if he does, the odds are so low at this point that it's not worth the risk. If he were the 4th or 5th option on a team, I'd say take the risk, but when you're relying on him to be your 2nd or 3rd best starter he should just be shown the door. I'm going to take your bafflement as indicative of curiosity, and give you what I think is an honest, succinct, and accurate answer to your implied question. And I will apologize in advance for it. Because they are thinking rationally.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2015 2:32:49 GMT -5
I don't think the rotation can sustain having both Buch and Joe Kelly as beginning of the year starters. Kelly, even when on, is always a short start, averaging less than 6 innings; Buch has his short days as well, and presumably his AAAA cover is not an innings-eater. This could put a huge strain on the bullpen at the start of the year to "make up" innings, which I think caused a sort of death spiral for the pen this season. I think if they keep Buch they need to move Kelly or commit to him as the long man or high leverage reliever. If they do move Buch I think there's a little leeway to give Kelly one more round as starter. It's true that full season of Kelly will (at his post-recall 2015 rate) leave you an extra 18 innings of bullpen work compared to the average starter, which is to say, 1 inning every 9 games. But Buchholz in fact will get you 9 or 10 of those back. So now you're down to 1 to 2 innings per month. It's invisible. If Buchholz is getting knocked out early in games in April and May, you have bigger problems than overworking the bullpen. The bottom line is that the ability to work deeper in games than would be expected, given how good you are, is nice, but it's such a small factor that it will almost always give way, in you assessment, to how good you are, period. (Pitches/PA for a hitter is another such factor. It can be useful, but it's value above and beyond the OBP that it tracks pretty strongly with is pretty much negligible.) (BTW, an off-topic note ... the new Windows 10 web browser, Microsoft Edge, is the single worst piece of software I've ever used. Thanks to ProBoards for rescuing this post from one of its bizarre bugs. Hopefully by Sunday I'll get Firefox running ...)
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 10, 2015 7:11:11 GMT -5
Edge >> Firefox >> Chrome
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Post by p23w on Oct 10, 2015 8:34:40 GMT -5
Edge >> Firefox >> Chrome (-10)
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Post by thegoo13 on Oct 10, 2015 10:38:58 GMT -5
I don't think the rotation can sustain having both Buch and Joe Kelly as beginning of the year starters. Kelly, even when on, is always a short start, averaging less than 6 innings; Buch has his short days as well, and presumably his AAAA cover is not an innings-eater. This could put a huge strain on the bullpen at the start of the year to "make up" innings, which I think caused a sort of death spiral for the pen this season. I think if they keep Buch they need to move Kelly or commit to him as the long man or high leverage reliever. If they do move Buch I think there's a little leeway to give Kelly one more round as starter. It's true that full season of Kelly will (at his post-recall 2015 rate) leave you an extra 18 innings of bullpen work compared to the average starter, which is to say, 1 inning every 9 games. But Buchholz in fact will get you 9 or 10 of those back. So now you're down to 1 to 2 innings per month. It's invisible. If Buchholz is getting knocked out early in games in April and May, you have bigger problems than overworking the bullpen. The bottom line is that the ability to work deeper in games than would be expected, given how good you are, is nice, but it's such a small factor that it will almost always give way, in you assessment, to how good you are, period For all the sabermetrics that you can no doubt point to, the problem with your analysis IMO, is in your quote "to how good you are". Joe kelly was terrible in 2014 after we traded for him. He was worst starting pitcher in baseball defined by numbers outside of the sabermetrics for WAY too long in 2015 when it mattered. Meaning in the first half when we Sox were not out of contention. His starts were so bad the games were all but over in the first couple innings time and time again. How could any competent GM go into another season counting on him in the starting rotation? Bullpen okay. Maybe his stuff plays up there? Maybe that is worth the risk? Rotation again no thanks. Buchholz can be dominant at times but he can be Joe Kelly bad sometimes too. Personally I think his good outweighs his bad and he is worth taking the chance on. Sox have the kind of depth that can minimize his injuries and/or ineffectiveness.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 10, 2015 12:11:04 GMT -5
Edge >> Firefox >> Chrome (-10) Whoa - I think I had that backwards. Chrome is better than Firefox is better than Edge is what I meant.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 10, 2015 12:13:41 GMT -5
It's true that full season of Kelly will (at his post-recall 2015 rate) leave you an extra 18 innings of bullpen work compared to the average starter, which is to say, 1 inning every 9 games. But Buchholz in fact will get you 9 or 10 of those back. So now you're down to 1 to 2 innings per month. It's invisible. If Buchholz is getting knocked out early in games in April and May, you have bigger problems than overworking the bullpen. The bottom line is that the ability to work deeper in games than would be expected, given how good you are, is nice, but it's such a small factor that it will almost always give way, in you assessment, to how good you are, period For all the sabermetrics that you can no doubt point to, the problem with your analysis IMO, is in your quote "to how good you are". Joe kelly was terrible in 2014 after we traded for him. He was worst starting pitcher in baseball defined by numbers outside of the sabermetrics for WAY too long in 2015 when it mattered. Meaning in the first half when we Sox were not out of contention. His starts were so bad the games were all but over in the first couple innings time and time again. How could any competent GM go into another season counting on him in the starting rotation? Bullpen okay. Maybe his stuff plays up there? Maybe that is worth the risk? Rotation again no thanks. Buchholz can be dominant at times but he can be Joe Kelly bad sometimes too. Personally I think his good outweighs his bad and he is worth taking the chance on. Sox have the kind of depth that can minimize his injuries and/or ineffectiveness. No question of what you have to say about Kelly's post-acquisition 2014 and pre all-star 2015 seasons. That's why he was banished to Pawtucket, to work on his repertoire. He thought he could rely on his 94 - 98 mph FB to blow hitters away, when, much to his surprise, he found out he has other pitches in his arsenal. This is precisely what Farrell and his pitching coaches had been telling him. Use your FB to set up your off speed pitches. Sometimes it takes a while for young pitchers to accept sound advice from veterans instead of following your natural instincts. The results showed a complete turnaround with a what, an eight game winning streak? I don't believe Joe has ever had any meaningful bullpen experience, so there's no reason to believe he'd be any good at it. If he struggles again as a starter, it would be more prudent to trade him rather convert him to a different position.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2015 12:44:09 GMT -5
Whoa - I think I had that backwards. Chrome is better than Firefox is better than Edge is what I meant. OK, that makes sense! I've heard great things about Chrome and would probably choose it if I didn't have years of Firefox experience. To get a tiny bit back on topic, in Edge, if you try to export a b-ref table to Excel, you'll get the permanent spinning circle, during which time that tab is eating up all of your RAM. Quickly. I had it happen twice and lost 4 GB and 10 GB of RAM after waiting maybe 15 and 40 seconds.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 10, 2015 13:13:07 GMT -5
Chrome is great, except that Goggle exists for one reason, and one reason only. That's to mine every bit of data they can get their hands on, and that most certainly includes all of yours. If you can live with that, then it's fine.
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Post by thegoo13 on Oct 10, 2015 14:38:51 GMT -5
For all the sabermetrics that you can no doubt point to, the problem with your analysis IMO, is in your quote "to how good you are". Joe kelly was terrible in 2014 after we traded for him. He was worst starting pitcher in baseball defined by numbers outside of the sabermetrics for WAY too long in 2015 when it mattered. Meaning in the first half when we Sox were not out of contention. His starts were so bad the games were all but over in the first couple innings time and time again. How could any competent GM go into another season counting on him in the starting rotation? Bullpen okay. Maybe his stuff plays up there? Maybe that is worth the risk? Rotation again no thanks. Buchholz can be dominant at times but he can be Joe Kelly bad sometimes too. Personally I think his good outweighs his bad and he is worth taking the chance on. Sox have the kind of depth that can minimize his injuries and/or ineffectiveness. No question of what you have to say about Kelly's post-acquisition 2014 and pre all-star 2015 seasons. That's why he was banished to Pawtucket, to work on his repertoire. He thought he could rely on his 94 - 98 mph FB to blow hitters away, when, much to his surprise, he found out he has other pitches in his arsenal. This is precisely what Farrell and his pitching coaches had been telling him. Use your FB to set up your off speed pitches. Sometimes it takes a while for young pitchers to accept sound advice from veterans instead of following your natural instincts. The results showed a complete turnaround with a what, an eight game winning streak? I don't believe Joe has ever had any meaningful bullpen experience, so there's no reason to believe he'd be any good at it. If he struggles again as a starter, it would be more prudent to trade him rather convert him to a different position. Yes no question he was far better retuning from AAA. Guess you can explain it as such and go into 2016 trusting that. My guess is that he was doing that all along. He is just not able to do so consistently. He does have BP experience with Cards. They thought he was better there too. The reason they were okay trading him.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 10, 2015 15:25:30 GMT -5
No question of what you have to say about Kelly's post-acquisition 2014 and pre all-star 2015 seasons. That's why he was banished to Pawtucket, to work on his repertoire. He thought he could rely on his 94 - 98 mph FB to blow hitters away, when, much to his surprise, he found out he has other pitches in his arsenal. This is precisely what Farrell and his pitching coaches had been telling him. Use your FB to set up your off speed pitches. Sometimes it takes a while for young pitchers to accept sound advice from veterans instead of following your natural instincts. The results showed a complete turnaround with a what, an eight game winning streak? I don't believe Joe has ever had any meaningful bullpen experience, so there's no reason to believe he'd be any good at it. If he struggles again as a starter, it would be more prudent to trade him rather convert him to a different position. Yes no question he was far better retuning from AAA. Guess you can explain it as such and go into 2016 trusting that. My guess is that he was doing that all along. He is just not able to do so consistently. He does have BP experience with Cards. They thought he was better there too. The reason they were okay trading him. When he came back from AAA, he used a pitch mix that he'd never used before. He'd been tinkering with his pitch mix his whole career, sometimes throwing a lot of fastballs, sometimes a medium amount, and sometimes a relatively low amount. This was a strategy of throwing an even lower amount of fastballs, a counter-intuitively low amount of fastballs for someone who throws that hard. It also doesn't seem on the surface to be a good idea given that fastball command has been a problem of his, and as a general principle the more you throw a pitch, the better you command it. So it's no wonder he'd never tried throwing that few of them, and only went to this strategy as a sort of last resort. I can't say that I've looked at the details of the results well enough to explain why it worked so well (and as much as I would like to, I can't promise that I'll find the time). But it really did. Which is why I'm guardedly optimistic that he's a legitimate third starter on an average club, and fourth starter on a good club, and hence a perfectly fine option for 5th starter next year (along with Wright) if we expect to contend. Projecting him and Wright as guys in the pen who are ready to start when and if Buchholz, etc. gets injured seems an even safer bet.
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Post by soxcentral on Oct 10, 2015 17:21:08 GMT -5
I agree that it's more important to look at how Kelly pitched after he returned as a predictor of 2016, as he really did change his approach drastically and with real success.
If we can re-sign Hill I like the potential of the #4 and 5 slots with Kelly/Hill/Wright as candidates using the 'loser' as the long man in the pen/injury replacement and with Owens/Johnson as AAA depth.
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