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Breaking: Larry Lucchino out as Red Sox CEO
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 4, 2015 18:39:53 GMT -5
Re: Dombrowski as a potential Red Sox FO hire:
Nick likes him. So NO!
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 18:40:56 GMT -5
I forget what article it was in but I think Henry's philosophies on team building has changed since he employed Dombrowski last. I think he sticks more with an analytical guy. DD has had a heck of a career but I think we go a different direction. Henry owned the Marlins for about 10 minutes and employed Dombrowski for about 5 minutes. I don't think we can take too much from their past.
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Post by rafael on Aug 4, 2015 19:05:09 GMT -5
I don't get the excitement for Dombrowski; sounds like greener grass on the other side. I mean, I like him generally (and I must say he's a snappy dresser), but this ain't Friedmann we're talking about here. He's been giving contracts in Detroit that over the long run will make the Sandoval deal feel like a bargain(Verlander, Miggy, Fielder, etc.); will leave a farm system in pretty rough shape. I mean, Keith Law ranked Detroit's farm system the worst in baseball last January - it's probably a little better now thanks to recent trades. Year after year, his bullpens have been terrible. If DD was doing that in Boston, we'd be killing him on this board. The excuse is always that the owner made him give the bad contracts, but that's quite a cop-out. People want to get rid of Ben, fine. But if Cherington gets fired, he'll leave a Red Sox team that's in much better shape to win in the short and medium terms than what Dombrowski is leaving in Detroit. I guess it depends on the role, and DD has the type of experience you're looking for in general, for a President of Baseball Ops role. But other than that, I really don't see much there that's fundamentally better than what we've got. To me, option 1 is you keep Cherington, get rid of Allard Baird and find wherever Bill Lajoie (or somebody like that) is to work with Ben; if you get rid of Ben, go get whoever is the next analytically minded young GM out there (though you'd probably still need a Lajoie type). I totally agree with you. If BC sold the whole farm as Dombrowski did in Detroit, he could easily build a team way better than any team that Dombrowski built. If the Red Sox want a president of baseball operations, they should get an analitically savvy executive such as Luhnow, Huntington or Mozeliak.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 4, 2015 20:47:59 GMT -5
Dombrowski was hired to win now in Detroit. In both Montreal and Miami he built extremely strong farm systems.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 4, 2015 21:20:23 GMT -5
Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick Hearing some rumblings tonight that David Dombrowski could be in the mix with #redsox. Worth watching.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 4, 2015 21:33:31 GMT -5
Battle of the ESPN sources. ESPN vs ESPN Boston
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Post by jdb on Aug 4, 2015 22:05:30 GMT -5
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,781
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Post by mobaz on Aug 4, 2015 22:35:41 GMT -5
I totally agree with you. If BC sold the whole farm as Dombrowski did in Detroit, he could easily build a team way better than any team that Dombrowski built. If the Red Sox want a president of baseball operations, they should get an analitically savvy executive such as Luhnow, Huntington or Mozeliak. I'd LOVE Huntington as President of Baseball Ops or equivalent, keep Ben and expand the analytical staff up again. Pittsburgh is doing a lot of interesting things on tracking health and well-being that it's embarrassing the Sox are behind on.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2015 23:55:59 GMT -5
All I know is that some people here are clamoring for someone new to come in and completely abandon the strategy of hording prospects and trade all of them like it's 1999 and that's about the last thing I'd do. The strategy they've used for the last few years is correct even though it didn't work out. We had to move on from Papi, Lester, Ellsbury, etc. and this is what it looks like. Trading 4 top 10 prospects for a 29 year old Carrasco and signing Cueto and Price for $60 million/year through 2023 isn't the strategy we should be using.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2015 0:22:54 GMT -5
All I know is that some people here are clamoring for someone new to come in and completely abandon the strategy of hording prospects and trade all of them like it's 1999 and that's about the last thing I'd do. The strategy they've used for the last few years is correct even though it didn't work out. We had to move on from Papi, Lester, Ellsbury, etc. and this is what it looks like. Trading 4 top 10 prospects for a 29 year old Carrasco and signing Cueto and Price for $60 million/year through 2023 isn't the strategy we should be using. Even though I'm in favor of signing Cueto and using Miley plus surplus to try to upgrade to a better rental pitcher, I agree with your overall direction. I wouldn't get rid of anybody who figures to be a core of the young team they should be aiming to put on the field by 2017 and 2018. I realize the Sox need to try to compete and they have to do it without touching their future. They have a financial advantage so they need to use it. If it works, great - it doesn't change the fact that the team should look drastically different around the diamond by 2018. If it doesn't work, then we'll be drafting high in June of 2017. Whoever is above Ben needs to prioritize the young core that's mainly in high A ball. I'm guessing we're looking at Dombrowski, Beane, Duquette, or whoever (please not Tom Werner). I like Dombrowski, but I guess he's not statistically savvy enough according to what I've read. Dombrowski mostly makes good trades. I think he was under a mandate to win immediately in Detroit which is why everything he seems to do was geared for the last several years and this is the first time he had to think about the future for Detroit (He did good getting Norris in the Price deal, and Fulmer in the Cespedes deal). I wish Theo was available, but he's not.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 5, 2015 13:11:22 GMT -5
What seems to me most broken about this team is this pathway:
Expert analytics -> communicated to GM and manager
-> used by GM to identify undervalued talent and avoid overvalued talent -> implemented by manager and communicated to players to gain in-game advantages (pitch sequencing, defensive positioning, etc.)
-> players exceeding projections due to analytic edge
It's a must that the new CEO be committed to advanced analytics, and using that data.
Cherington remains an amazing GM for identifying amateur talent and a very good one for identifying minor league talent. But as the talent gets better, it becomes harder and harder to discriminate among players via scouting and simple analytics. (For one thing, our big amateur edge is in assessing makeup, and the guys who have succeeded in MLB are those that have already passed that test.) Increasingly, it seems to me, what determines whether veteran MLB talent exceeds or falls short of their projections is the use of advanced analytics. You use them to determine who is actually better or worse than what scouting and simple analysis tells you, and then you use it to give all your players an edge on the field.
If Cherington were provided with much better data, there's every reason to think that he would use that data to do a much better job of assessing MLB talent. If we had a new manager who could use that data, there is every reason to believe we could gain a significant on-field edge.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 5, 2015 13:36:19 GMT -5
“@jonmorosi: DD: “I was not given any explanation, other than a change of direction, and I respect that. Nobody owes me any type of reason at all.””
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Aug 5, 2015 22:00:36 GMT -5
Dombrowski was hired to win now in Detroit. In both Montreal and Miami he built extremely strong farm systems. Three seasons out of fourteen of winning more than 90 games. Digest that for a moment. All of those resources, and three times winning more than 90 games. And then, zero championships. Nada. Zilch. That type of performance won't cut it in Boston. Hell, the (vocal) majority of this site's active posters can't wait for the door to hit Larry Lucchino's arse, and he contributed directly in three championships.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 5, 2015 23:12:57 GMT -5
All I know is that some people here are clamoring for someone new to come in and completely abandon the strategy of hording prospects and trade all of them like it's 1999 and that's about the last thing I'd do. The strategy they've used for the last few years is correct even though it didn't work out. We had to move on from Papi, Lester, Ellsbury, etc. and this is what it looks like. Trading 4 top 10 prospects for a 29 year old Carrasco and signing Cueto and Price for $60 million/year through 2023 isn't the strategy we should be using. What the team really needs to do is keep its building block prospects and trade the others when their value is high! Otherwise you are going to have a ton of Bradley's, Cecchini's, Coyle's, and Barnes. When your team is in a city named Boston and people expect you to be a contender almost every year its very hard to correctly develop a ton of prospects. You can do a couple a year. We have way to many prospects, you can easily trade a bunch of them and not impact the Red Sox of in the future.
Also I was joking about signing both Price and Cueto in regards to Dombrowski, type of thing he would do. But if you don't think we can sign one in our market you are so wrong. We need elite pitching and Price and Cueto will cost nothing more then money. Yes a lot of money for a lot of years, but they could also be the missing piece that could make us a true contender, so you sign them. If you really think that the Boston Red Sox should stay away from big money deals for a bunch of years on free agents, you better get ready to trade a bunch of prospects. Those our the only two options to get elite starting pitching. Pay for it or trade for it. I would much rather just pay for it. If it takes 6 years and close to 180 million you do it!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 5, 2015 23:24:23 GMT -5
Dombrowski was hired to win now in Detroit. In both Montreal and Miami he built extremely strong farm systems. He traded away Detroit's awesome prospects for bums like Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Don't let him anywhere near the Red Sox.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2015 23:52:12 GMT -5
Dombrowski was hired to win now in Detroit. In both Montreal and Miami he built extremely strong farm systems. He traded away Detroit's awesome prospects for bums like Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Don't let him anywhere near the Red Sox. Not to mention bums like Miguel Cabrera, Doug Fister and Jose Iglesias.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2015 6:34:04 GMT -5
All I know is that some people here are clamoring for someone new to come in and completely abandon the strategy of hording prospects and trade all of them like it's 1999 and that's about the last thing I'd do. The strategy they've used for the last few years is correct even though it didn't work out. We had to move on from Papi, Lester, Ellsbury, etc. and this is what it looks like. Trading 4 top 10 prospects for a 29 year old Carrasco and signing Cueto and Price for $60 million/year through 2023 isn't the strategy we should be using. What the team really needs to do is keep its building block prospects and trade the others when their value is high! Otherwise you are going to have a ton of Bradley's, Cecchini's, Coyle's, and Barnes. When your team is in a city named Boston and people expect you to be a contender almost every year its very hard to correctly develop a ton of prospects. You can do a couple a year. We have way to many prospects, you can easily trade a bunch of them and not impact the Red Sox of in the future.
Also I was joking about signing both Price and Cueto in regards to Dombrowski, type of thing he would do. But if you don't think we can sign one in our market you are so wrong. We need elite pitching and Price and Cueto will cost nothing more then money. Yes a lot of money for a lot of years, but they could also be the missing piece that could make us a true contender, so you sign them. If you really think that the Boston Red Sox should stay away from big money deals for a bunch of years on free agents, you better get ready to trade a bunch of prospects. Those our the only two options to get elite starting pitching. Pay for it or trade for it. I would much rather just pay for it. If it takes 6 years and close to 180 million you do it!
That's a lot easier said than done. There were quite a few people who thought Mookie wasn't for real after 2013. Good thing they didn't sell high on him then.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2015 9:33:39 GMT -5
What the team really needs to do is keep its building block prospects and trade the others when their value is high! Otherwise you are going to have a ton of Bradley's, Cecchini's, Coyle's, and Barnes. When your team is in a city named Boston and people expect you to be a contender almost every year its very hard to correctly develop a ton of prospects. You can do a couple a year. We have way to many prospects, you can easily trade a bunch of them and not impact the Red Sox of in the future.
Also I was joking about signing both Price and Cueto in regards to Dombrowski, type of thing he would do. But if you don't think we can sign one in our market you are so wrong. We need elite pitching and Price and Cueto will cost nothing more then money. Yes a lot of money for a lot of years, but they could also be the missing piece that could make us a true contender, so you sign them. If you really think that the Boston Red Sox should stay away from big money deals for a bunch of years on free agents, you better get ready to trade a bunch of prospects. Those our the only two options to get elite starting pitching. Pay for it or trade for it. I would much rather just pay for it. If it takes 6 years and close to 180 million you do it!
That's a lot easier said than done. There were quite a few people who thought Mookie wasn't for real after 2013. Good thing they didn't sell high on him then. It's their jobs to know when to sell high and went to hold. Every GM misses on this - and in some cases ownership may intervene - but there are some GMs/Orgs that do much better at internal player evaluation than others.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 6, 2015 11:54:15 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 2m2 minutes ago Dave Dombrowski likely would join any club as high-tiered executive, and oversee, not necessarily replace, the GM
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Post by joshv02 on Aug 6, 2015 11:55:28 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 2m2 minutes ago Dave Dombrowski likely would join any club as high-tiered executive, and oversee, not necessarily replace, the GM I, too, would like to join any company as a high-tiered executive, and oversee not necessarily replace, the GC.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 6, 2015 13:00:15 GMT -5
I am pretty surprised that Dombrowski is only 59. He was basically his generation's Theo Epstein, took over as Expos GM from Stoneman at 31.
Anyway, he's been a GM basically for 28 years straight. Can see why he'd like to move into a Team President type role where he works on big picture stuff and lets a GM do the daily grind of surfing the waiver wire and such.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2015 14:25:25 GMT -5
Bob Nightengale @bnightengale 2m2 minutes ago Dave Dombrowski likely would join any club as high-tiered executive, and oversee, not necessarily replace, the GM I, too, would like to join any company as a high-tiered executive, and oversee not necessarily replace, the GC. If it pays well, I'll be your secretary.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2015 14:58:06 GMT -5
What the team really needs to do is keep its building block prospects and trade the others when their value is high! Otherwise you are going to have a ton of Bradley's, Cecchini's, Coyle's, and Barnes. When your team is in a city named Boston and people expect you to be a contender almost every year its very hard to correctly develop a ton of prospects. You can do a couple a year. We have way to many prospects, you can easily trade a bunch of them and not impact the Red Sox of in the future.
Also I was joking about signing both Price and Cueto in regards to Dombrowski, type of thing he would do. But if you don't think we can sign one in our market you are so wrong. We need elite pitching and Price and Cueto will cost nothing more then money. Yes a lot of money for a lot of years, but they could also be the missing piece that could make us a true contender, so you sign them. If you really think that the Boston Red Sox should stay away from big money deals for a bunch of years on free agents, you better get ready to trade a bunch of prospects. Those our the only two options to get elite starting pitching. Pay for it or trade for it. I would much rather just pay for it. If it takes 6 years and close to 180 million you do it!
That's a lot easier said than done. There were quite a few people who thought Mookie wasn't for real after 2013. Good thing they didn't sell high on him then. Yea but that's why they get paid millions per year. If we continue to just hoard our prospects we will be wasting a ton of good resources. I never looked at Betts that way. He came out of high school with all the tools you could ask for but was seen as raw. He developed faster then many thought, but he always had that superstar upside. You don't trade those prospects unless your getting someone like Gray from Oakland.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 6, 2015 17:10:24 GMT -5
That's a lot easier said than done. There were quite a few people who thought Mookie wasn't for real after 2013. Good thing they didn't sell high on him then. Yea but that's why they get paid millions per year. If we continue to just hoard our prospects we will be wasting a ton of good resources. I never looked at Betts that way. He came out of high school with all the tools you could ask for but was seen as raw. He developed faster then many thought, but he always had that superstar upside. You don't trade those prospects unless your getting someone like Gray from Oakland. He was a 5th round pick and had one mediocre season and then one breakout season. There have been tons of prospects like him that have one good year and then do nothing. Deciding if a prospect is for real or just a charade is basically as much of a crap shoot as actually drafting players.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 6, 2015 18:45:09 GMT -5
Deciding if a prospect is for real or just a charade is basically as much of a crap shoot as actually drafting players. So... not at all a crap shoot and instead something that takes a lot of skill and time and analysis (and yes, some luck too)? Yeah I agree with that then.
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