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Update: Red Sox sign Napoli for one year, $5m
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 3, 2012 22:40:24 GMT -5
Also, according to every defensive metric he's essentially average at 1B. I'm sure there's something in this world that I care less about than first base defense, but... I can't actually think of anything.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 3, 2012 22:44:40 GMT -5
Also, according to every defensive metric he's essentially average at 1B. I'm sure there's something in this world that I care less about than first base defense, but... I can't actually think of anything. Also that.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 3, 2012 23:11:46 GMT -5
At this price, he has to produce roughly a total of 7 WAR over the three years to break even (at $5.5m per WAR). Napoli has produced 10.4 fWAR over the last three years and 4.5 fWAR per 600 PAs over his career. Granted, a lot of that was at catcher, but he's produced 2 batting wins per 162 games with his bat alone, and absent significant offensive decline, he should be well worth his contract. I see a lot of averaging of career stats which implies expectations that Napoli's. One thing to keep in mind when using a mean number is that one outlier can skew that number a great deal. in 2011 Napoli had a year that is out of character for the rest of his career. He had double the WAR he's ever had and had a .341 BABIP which is 50 points above his career average. He's not likely to do that again. You take that out he's produced roughly half a win less per 600 PAs throughout his career. If Napoli had played mostly 1B during his career time as opposed to caught as it's likely he'll do with the Sox his WAR per 600 PAs would have been 3.6. If you combine these two factors. Napoli's actual WAR per 600 PAs is 2.3. Keep in mind that Napoli has never reached 600 PAs in his career. In my opinion it's very unlikely that Napoli makes that 7 win threshold unless he either catches a lot or has at least one more year like he did in 2011. It doesn't appear he's going to be catching much and I don't think he'll have another year in his 30s like he did in 2011. In other words Napoli is going to have to perform far better in his 30s than he did in his 20s. Here is an interesting article discussing the possibility of Napoli being better in the future because he is moving off catcher. www.baseballthinkfactory.org/sox_therapy/discussion/sign_mike_napoli_to_a_reasonable_contract
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2012 0:30:25 GMT -5
The Scott Hatteberg effect. Love it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 4, 2012 1:47:21 GMT -5
The Scott Hatteberg effect. Love it. Now, if we can just squirrel away Napoli's " tools of Ignorance" where he can't find them, all that increased performance should be a go!
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 4, 2012 3:36:43 GMT -5
Best part of the deal is that Jeff Mathis doesn't come attached!
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Post by dmaineah on Dec 4, 2012 7:44:33 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Can't stay healthy, awful 1st baseman who makes a very good infield D suspect, and a skill set that looks like it is in decline. No you are not. And in the real world you are part of the majority but here you are part of the minority with me. Use to be that 13 million per year would get a real good ball player. Apparently now it gets you a player that hit 227 last year and drove in 56 and only once in his entire career played in more then 114 games & had more then 382 ABs. Last year Mike Napoli; Hit 179 as a RHB vs LHP Hit 183 in July & 167 in Aug Hit 190 as a 1B Hit 182 in the 6 hole Hit 188 with a 3 ball count Hit 129 with 2 strikes Hit 219 after he was ahead with a 3 & 1 count Hit 211 with men on base Hit 158 with a runner on 3rd & 2 outs Hit 189 with 2 outs & a runner in scoring position Hit 175 in the innings 7, 8 & 9 This is a terrible signing. So far it looks as though "The Round Table" decision makers are intent on signing and fielding a team of Role, Bench & Platoon players for LF, RF, 1B & SS. Very Disappointing
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Post by templeusox on Dec 4, 2012 8:30:37 GMT -5
Last year Mike Napoli; Hit 179 as a RHB vs LHP Hit 183 in July & 167 in Aug Hit 190 as a 1B Hit 182 in the 6 hole Hit 188 with a 3 ball count Hit 129 with 2 strikes Hit 219 after he was ahead with a 3 & 1 count Hit 211 with men on base Hit 158 with a runner on 3rd & 2 outs Hit 189 with 2 outs & a runner in scoring position Hit 175 in the innings 7, 8 & 9 Really nice breakdown. Except, Mike Napoli hit .227 overall last year, but still had a good offensive season. It's almost like average isn't the best indicator of offensive success.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 8:53:08 GMT -5
Am I the only one who doesn't like the Napoli signing? Can't stay healthy, awful 1st baseman who makes a very good infield D suspect, and a skill set that looks like it is in decline. No you are not. And in the real world you are part of the majority but here you are part of the minority with me. Use to be that 13 million per year would get a real good ball player. Apparently now it gets you a player that hit 227 last year and drove in 56 and only once in his entire career played in more then 114 games & had more then 382 ABs. Last year Mike Napoli; Hit 179 as a RHB vs LHP Hit 183 in July & 167 in Aug Hit 190 as a 1B Hit 182 in the 6 hole Hit 188 with a 3 ball count Hit 129 with 2 strikes Hit 219 after he was ahead with a 3 & 1 count Hit 211 with men on base Hit 158 with a runner on 3rd & 2 outs Hit 189 with 2 outs & a runner in scoring position Hit 175 in the innings 7, 8 & 9 This is a terrible signing. So far it looks as though "The Round Table" decision makers are intent on signing and fielding a team of Role, Bench & Platoon players for LF, RF, 1B & SS. Very Disappointing I really do not care much about batting average or RBIs. In today's MLB (with stricter controls on PEDs) he is a good middle of the order batter. Power hitters are extremely difficult to find or develop. You are right, 13 million dollars used to buy near-elite level players (an elite player has not signed for 13 million since the 1990s), but that was when 120 million Was a huge payroll. Now the big market teams approach and exceed the 189 million dollar tax threshold.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2012 10:25:53 GMT -5
There are legitimate worries with Napoli, namely: (a) Declining contact rate last year may be indicative of slowing bat speed as he enters the decline phase of his career (b) Napoli's hitting profile (low contact, high patience, high power, low athleticism) is not one which typically ages well (c) While he's never had a major injury, Napoli has missed time with minor ones (ankle, hamstring) and his history of catching might lead more nagging injuries to pop up.
Now, why I think Napoli makes sense: (a) He's got upside, especially if the slight decline in contact rates last year was a statistical anomaly or injury-related. He was the best hitter in baseball in 2011 and still has the power (.241 ISO) and patience (13.4% walk rate) to be a very good hitter if his BABIP rebounds (career low .273 last year; xBABIP of .310). (b) 2012 may have just been a statistical anomaly. He hit righties at a .250/.365/.496 clip (.314 BABIP), in line with his .253/.347/.498 career line. The big difference was his .179/.295/.411 line against lefties in 2012, a far cry from his career .273/.381/.529 line versus southpaws. He walked and hit for as much power as he usually does against lefties in 2012, but his BABIP against them was an unsustainably low .185 (.314 career) despite no real change in his batted ball profiles versus lefties. I don't think a guy who has mashed lefties throughout his career just forgot how to hit lefties overnight, and once that rebounds, his overall offensive performance should look closer to 2011 than 2012. (c) He's a better defender than many may realize at 1B. His experience at catcher means he has soft hands and a good arm and the only area he struggles is with range. Playing next to Pedroia might ameliorate some of that. BR has him as an average defender at 1B and Fangraphs has him at a -3.4 UZR/150 there. (d) There were no better options. The farm system has no viable short- or long-term solutions and LaRoche is the only above-average free agent. Youkilis might have been a decent buy-low candidate, but he's three years older than Napoli and even a move back to 1B is unlikely to turn back time. You got Napoli at reasonable years and reasonable money, and even if you can't get excited about it, it's hard to argue that there was any alternative that would have made more sense.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 13:57:29 GMT -5
For forcasting purposes you should pretend that extreme outliers didn't occur unless you have some reasonable basis to assume that the will reoccur. Using a three year sample isn't cherry picking at all. However using a data set that is skewed by one data point implicitly assumes that the data point will reoccur in the next three years.
Fangraphs has 1B as a negative adjustment to WRAA while it has C as a positive adjustment. The net difference is 25 runs, or 2.5 WAR per 162 games at 1B as opposed to catcher. Napoli has played some 1B during his time and that is reflected in the WAR you see on fangraphs.
Napoli has played roughly three full seasons behind the plate so that's 7.5 WAR (2.5*3) that were added by him playing catcher as opposed to 1B for his career. Divide that by his total PAs and multiply that by 600 you get to 1.7 WAR per 600 PAs. That is the total value that Napoli has accured throughout his career, including 2011 from playing catcher as opposed to 1B.
To combine the two factors you have to take out 2011 catching.
The Bill James projection is for 500 PAs and they do project WRAA so you don't have to try to scale the W/OBA or make your own assumptions about league average WOBA. James projects a WAR of 2.6 if you assume that he plays 1B at an average rate. If he plays as badly as he did last year....he's a .6 WAR player.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 4, 2012 13:57:45 GMT -5
I love the signing, in my opinion there was no FA out there this season that better fit our plans. Short term, relatively cheap, fills the holes we need, (1b, C, middle order hitter), doesn't cost a draft pick, great OBP, SLG, and ISO %, and also has a high ceiling. Hey if he plays like he did in 2011 we will be wishing we signed him to a 4th year. Looking at the FA market the only other option was LaRoche, who is older, more expensive, and would cost a draft pick. This also gives us a monopoly on the catcher trade market
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 4, 2012 14:07:14 GMT -5
I love the signing, in my opinion there was no FA out there this season that better fit our plans. Short term, relatively cheap, fills the holes we need, (1b, C, middle order hitter), doesn't cost a draft pick, great OBP, SLG, and ISO %, and also has a high ceiling. Hey if he plays like he did in 2011 we will be wishing we signed him to a 4th year. Looking at the FA market the only other option was LaRoche, who is older, more expensive, and would cost a draft pick. This also gives us a monopoly on the catcher trade market This Sent from my SGH-T999 using proboards
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 4, 2012 14:09:02 GMT -5
...If he plays as badly as he did last year....he's a .6 WAR player. If we're going to go with robust statistics, you'll want to throw that out as well based on the .179 BABIP against lefthanders. That's a bit of an outlier also.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 4, 2012 14:20:09 GMT -5
I love the signing, in my opinion there was no FA out there this season that better fit our plans. Short term, relatively cheap, fills the holes we need, (1b, C, middle order hitter), doesn't cost a draft pick, great OBP, SLG, and ISO %, and also has a high ceiling. Hey if he plays like he did in 2011 we will be wishing we signed him to a 4th year. Looking at the FA market the only other option was LaRoche, who is older, more expensive, and would cost a draft pick. This also gives us a monopoly on the catcher trade market That's the thing. If there was a 26 year old 1b on the market who was a dead-solid lock to hit .300/.400/.550, sure, give that guy his $200m. But there isn't. I feel like this is the fifth or sixth time I've rephrased this sentence, but again, the Sox had a black hole at first base and they signed probably the best available option for roughly market rate. And yeah Napoli isn't perfect, but that's why you're able to get him on a three year deal. I know we all want the superstars. I want them too. But solid regulars are a part of any good team, too.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 14:29:18 GMT -5
...If he plays as badly as he did last year....he's a .6 WAR player. If we're going to go with robust statistics, you'll want to throw that out as well based on the .179 BABIP against lefthanders. That's a bit of an outlier also. The above quote had to do with Napoli's fielding. I'm not sure what a BABIP has to do with his fielding.
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Post by feez732 on Dec 4, 2012 14:35:14 GMT -5
For forcasting purposes you should pretend that extreme outliers didn't occur unless you have some reasonable basis to assume that the will reoccur. Using a three year sample isn't cherry picking at all. However using a data set that is skewed by one data point implicitly assumes that the data point will reoccur in the next three years. Just because people refer to a year like Napoli's 2011 as an outlier doesn't mean it would actually pass the test for one in a statistical sense. You can't just chuck it out because it looks different to you. That's not just foolish, but intellectually dishonest.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 4, 2012 14:35:52 GMT -5
If we're going to go with robust statistics, you'll want to throw that out as well based on the .179 BABIP against lefthanders. That's a bit of an outlier also. The above quote had to do with Napoli's fielding. I'm not sure what a BABIP has to do with his fielding. My apology. Didn't read far enough into the entire post.
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2012 14:45:03 GMT -5
For forcasting purposes you should pretend that extreme outliers didn't occur unless you have some reasonable basis to assume that the will reoccur. Using a three year sample isn't cherry picking at all. However using a data set that is skewed by one data point implicitly assumes that the data point will reoccur in the next three years. You just can't ignore data when all we have is limited sample sizes to begin with. I'm not "implicitly assum[ing] that the data point will reoccur" but rather taking a larger sample size rather than relying on the beginning and end of seasons as arbitrary endpoints. Player performance naturally fluctuates, and the best way to minimize the skewing effects of outliers is not to ignore them entirely, but to use a larger sample size. I've used both three-year and career stats in an attempt to do so, which I think is good enough for our rudimentary projection efforts in this thread. Also, as I noted above, 2012 is just as much of an "extreme outlier" as 2012 or 2010 were. He had a good BABIP year in 2011 and he probably won't repeat that year's low strikeout rate, but he had a bad BABIP in 2010 and 2012 and his strikeout rate ticced up last year despite little change in his plate discipline profile. Choosing to label 2011 as an "extreme outlier" is probably more arbitrary and obfuscating than relying on a three-year sample. Come on now, you're too smart to honestly be suggesting that we just pretend 2011 didn't happen. You can make a good enough argument against Napoli without relying on this point. At 2.3 WAR for 2013 (2.6 WAR and assuming -3 runs at 1B defensively), assuming a .5 WAR decline per year, $5.5m per WAR, and 5% inflation, Napoli's deal comes out as an overpay of a few million dollars. Keep in mind that's a pessimistic projection both with regards to his triple-slash and his playing time. I'm just going to ignore the .6 WAR bit (a) since you're projecting on the basis of 26 games started at 1B and 207 defensive innings for a stat (UZR) that takes roughly 450 games played or 4000 defensive innings to stabilize, (b) ignoring the fact that Napoli has 837 defensive innings at 1B prior to 2012 and a cumulative -3.4 UZR/150, and (c) ignoring the fact that there has literally never been a first baseman who is, true talent-wise, as bad defensively as to be "worth" -20 runs per season. In fact, there has literally never been a first baseman who is, true talent wise, as bad as -10 runs defensively per season. Look, dude, if you're not going to be intellectually honest, I'm just not going to argue with you any more. It's fine if we disagree, just don't try and manipulate stats to work things in your favor.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 15:01:38 GMT -5
I'd disagree with that but it's worth looking at what the real options were. Of the options you stated, I would have taken a flier on Youkilis for one year to see if he can be healthy and rebound. I agree that Napoli is a better player today, but when you've just lost 93 games, overpaying for a non-star doesn't seem like a good option.
The other option and one I thought they'd go for would be trading for Kendry's Morales. He doesn't seem to have much of a place in LAA with Pujols at 1B and Trumbo most likely at DH. For Morales there is a reasonable chance that he rebounds to his old self and if he does, you skate away with a draft pick next year. If he doesn't he walks away.
Prior to 2011 his W/OBA over roughly 1800 PAs was .356. That's only 7 points higher than his W/OBA in 2012. 2012 was likely a little lower than what you would expect from Napoli, but still pretty good considering that his W/OBA over his first 1800 PAs included just two seasons in which he played over 100 games and didn't include fatigue.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 15:02:57 GMT -5
The above quote had to do with Napoli's fielding. I'm not sure what a BABIP has to do with his fielding. My apology. Didn't read far enough into the entire post. Not to worry.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 15:43:27 GMT -5
It's not a projection just an illustration.
Napoli has never played a full season at 1B so it's impossible to tell at least from the statistics how much his fielding would be worth there. Further, UZR doesn't work very well with 1B as you know. Given the scouting reports I think it's fair to say that he'd be below average at the position.
I think you are getting way to worked up over projections of a baseball player.
I don't think I was intellectually dishonest in my argument. My overall argument is that at age 31 you are talking about a guy who is realistically a 2-2.5 WAR player in what should be the best season of his contract. To pay a guy like that $40M, seems like a huge risk to me.
I do think we've reached the conclusion of this discussion though don't you?
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 16:18:04 GMT -5
It's not a projection just an illustration. Napoli has never played a full season at 1B so it's impossible to tell at least from the statistics how much his fielding would be worth there. Further, UZR doesn't work very well with 1B as you know. Given the scouting reports I think it's fair to say that he'd be below average at the position. I think you are getting way to worked up over projections of a baseball player. I don't think I was intellectually dishonest in my argument. My overall argument is that at age 31 you are talking about a guy who is realistically a 2-2.5 WAR player in what should be the best season of his contract. To pay a guy like that $40M, seems like a huge risk to me. I do think we've reached the conclusion of this discussion though don't you? I have to disagree with your conclusion that he is a 2 to 2.5 win player next year. The numbers show that when catchers move to first base, their bats improve. Additionally, Napoli is likely to play more games if he moves off catcher. 2.5 WAR is being somewhat pessimistic.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 17:31:15 GMT -5
I don't know of anyone who's studied this but I think that this is way overstated. Annecdotally in looking at Victor Martinez, who went from 126 games caught to 26 between 2010 and 2011 and saw his W/OBA improved by all of 5 points.
I'd imagine that any actual study of this really can't be more observational as most catchers aren't good enough hitters to play 1B and those that are mostly move to 1B towards the end of their careers so there are likely very few comparables....however if you have a link to such a study I'd be happy to take a look.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 4, 2012 22:19:48 GMT -5
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