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The Long-Term Catcher Dilemma Poll!
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Post by jmei on Sept 14, 2015 17:32:52 GMT -5
I definitely thought Vazquez was a plodder. I'm fairly confident there's at least a half-win difference between the two on that basis (ADD: baserunning) alone.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 14, 2015 17:42:50 GMT -5
I definitely thought Vazquez was a plodder. I'm fairly confident there's at least a half-win difference between the two on that basis (ADD: baserunning) alone. If you extrapolate his baserunning from last year to a full seasons worth of games, he'd easily be among the bottom 20 base runners in the game. Not that I would really do that to a 50 game sample, but just shows that he's definitely a negative on the base paths.
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wbcd
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Post by wbcd on Sept 14, 2015 18:36:42 GMT -5
What the Red Sox are going to do is not up to the Red Sox. If I had to bet, I'd bet that the Red Sox keep both catchers - not because it maximizes value, which it probably doesn't, but because teams won't give the Red Sox fair value because they think the Red Sox have to get rid of one.
In this low-run era it seems that a catcher who can hit has extra value. But if DD can spin Swihart into, say, a cost-controlled top of the rotation starter or some similar piece or pieces, then great. Maybe it will happen but I think that it is more likely it won't.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 14, 2015 18:43:02 GMT -5
Swihart has 0.3 bWAR this year with a .382 BABIP in 70 games.
Vazque had 1.1 bWAR last year with a .283 BABIP (which is probably about right) in 55 games.
Neither of those include pitch framing, where Vazquez has a pretty clear edge. To be fair, that was Swihart's age 23 season and Vazquez' age 24 season.
I know someone will list fWAR and how it's the opposite, but I don't know who actually believes that Swihart is almost as good as Vazquez defensively which happens to make up most of his fWAR with the rest baserunning. And neither WAR adjusts for BABIP.
Where is Swihart's offensive improvement going to come from? He has a .382 BABIP and a 93 wRC+. He's never walked a lot and probably won't be a huge power guy either. The likely drop in his BABIP is going to be hard to overcome other than by dropping the K-rate a lot. But I don't see him hitting much higher than he is now with that profile unless he starts hitting a lot more extra base hits.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 14, 2015 23:21:10 GMT -5
I think Swihart has a lot more potential power growth than you're giving him credit for, it's not like he showed none in the minors, he had a .134 ISO in A, .130 in A+ and .187 in AA, he also walked more in the minors. I'd give him time before you say he can't improve offensively. Also baserunning certainly does narrow that bWAR gap significantly, and the fielding component you're talking about actually favors Vazquez (Swihart just has a larger positional bonus from more PT).
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Post by cologneredsox on Sept 15, 2015 4:38:35 GMT -5
I think Swihart has a lot more potential power growth than you're giving him credit for, it's not like he showed none in the minors, he had a .134 ISO in A, .130 in A+ and .187 in AA, he also walked more in the minors. I'd give him time before you say he can't improve offensively. Also baserunning certainly does narrow that bWAR gap significantly, and the fielding component you're talking about actually favors Vazquez (Swihart just has a larger positional bonus from more PT). To help the argument: Don't we forget that Swihart always improved after a longer adjustment period? To my recollection both offensively and defensively. As long as we can expect that to happen (and the scouts still seem to believe that can be expected), why would we rush and decide about an unfinished product? Plus the written doubts about Vasquez, which are a) he'll be the hitter Eric thinks he's going to be and b) he recovers from his injury and reaches the same defensive hights he has shown. Additionally: If both reach their ceiling: Are we really sure it would not be the best option to keep them both? Couldn't that be a win-win solution? I'm not saying we should hold on to them no matter what. Give me those pitchers mentioned in one of the previous posts. But I as well doubt they will be given to us. Point is: Both the expectations about either player aren't clear yet and (at least to me) the benefit of having both. As long as both aspects are so unclear, I'd be cautious to move to soon.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2015 6:26:52 GMT -5
I think Swihart has a lot more potential power growth than you're giving him credit for, it's not like he showed none in the minors, he had a .134 ISO in A, .130 in A+ and .187 in AA, he also walked more in the minors. I'd give him time before you say he can't improve offensively. Also baserunning certainly does narrow that bWAR gap significantly, and the fielding component you're talking about actually favors Vazquez (Swihart just has a larger positional bonus from more PT). To help the argument: Don't we forget that Swihart always improved after a longer adjustment period? To my recollection both offensively and defensively. As long as we can expect that to happen (and the scouts still seem to believe that can be expected), why would we rush and decide about an unfinished product? Plus the written doubts about Vasquez, which are a) he'll be the hitter Eric thinks he's going to be and b) he recovers from his injury and reaches the same defensive hights he has shown. Additionally: If both reach their ceiling: Are we really sure it would not be the best option to keep them both? Couldn't that be a win-win solution? I'm not saying we should hold on to them no matter what. Give me those pitchers mentioned in one of the previous posts. But I as well doubt they will be given to us. Point is: Both the expectations about either player aren't clear yet and (at least to me) the benefit of having both. As long as both aspects are so unclear, I'd be cautious to move to soon. Last post on this, but Vazquez also improves after a longer adjustment period at each level. I think Swihart has to improve quite a bit more to surpass Vazquez when you factor in the already unsustainable BABIP. Once again, that's assuming Vazquez recovers completely in this hypothetical suspend your disbelief scenario.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 15, 2015 7:13:28 GMT -5
Still, the dilemma is that we don't know how healthy Vazquez will be and whether he will return to his former self, defensively especially, and even if he does, how long it would take to fully recover.
It's such an important position, I don't think you can anything until you can better assess CVaz post TJ. That likely means keeping them both another year and evaluating the situation during (and likely after) the 2016 season.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 15, 2015 8:57:26 GMT -5
@eric: I think you're relying too much on the accuracy of framing WAR in your evaluation of CV. There are only a few people I'd trade Swihart for this offseason. I could get behind involving him in a Archer, Sale or Fernandez trade, all of which are improbable. Realistically, I would think keeping him makes the most sense, at least for one more season as CV gets re acclimated and gets the chance to prove he can hit and still has a cannon. What about someone like Carlos Carrasco or Jose Quintana? I think that is a more feasible trade target for Swihart, although I think we would still be on the light side. Like I said before, the biggest factor in my eyes is who are you getting back in return. If it's Tyson Ross I'm taking a hard pass and letting them develop, if it's on of the guys listed above I'm very interest.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 15, 2015 9:01:50 GMT -5
i don't get why, if CV is so much more valuable as a catcher because of his pitch framing/def etc, then why would anyone think that the redsox are going to get a ton for BS if he is more of a hitting catcher as opposed to having really good catching qualities? Are the redsox the only ones in the MLB that think this way lol?
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 15, 2015 9:03:40 GMT -5
Like why are we not assuming that every other team isn't thinking this exact same way and they don't even want BS for that reason?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2015 9:09:34 GMT -5
Like why are we not assuming that every other team isn't thinking this exact same way and they don't even want BS for that reason? Because there aren't enough good young catchers to go around.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2015 9:23:08 GMT -5
Like why are we not assuming that every other team isn't thinking this exact same way and they don't even want BS for that reason? Because there aren't enough good young catchers to go around. This is not an adequate response to his question, since we're considering a scenario in which they are trading a good young catcher nonetheless and it's just a question of which one they should move. The real answer to that question is that many folks believe that the market doesn't adequately value pitch framing. Part of that is that there are likely some GMs who don't buy into the metrics, and recent transactions suggest that you can pick up a good-framing-catcher for cheaper than his pitch framing stats suggest he should be worth (e.g., the recent trades for Francisco Cervelli, Yasmani Grandal, Miguel Montero, Hank Conger). Of course, the real question that raises is whether the publicly-available framing metrics are accurate. If they were, you'd think there would be more of a bidding war for guys like Cervelli or Conger among the enlightened teams, or that someone would pick up Jose Molina despite his being an offensive black hole.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2015 9:34:26 GMT -5
Because there aren't enough good young catchers to go around. This is not an adequate response to his question, since we're considering a scenario in which they are trading a good young catcher nonetheless and it's just a question of which one they should move. The real answer to that question is that many folks believe that the market doesn't adequately value pitch framing. Part of that is that there are likely some GMs who don't buy into the metrics, and recent transactions suggest that you can pick up a good-framing-catcher for cheaper than his pitch framing stats suggest he should be worth (e.g., the recent trades for Francisco Cervelli, Yasmani Grandal, Miguel Montero, Hank Conger). Of course, the real question that raises is whether the publicly-available framing metrics are accurate. If they were, you'd think there would be more of a bidding war for guys like Cervelli or Conger among the enlightened teams, or that someone would pick up Jose Molina despite his being an offensive black hole. Why isn't my answer enough? If Christian Vazquez' career ended, we'd be pretty damn thrilled to still have Swihart. We're debating over two very good young catchers. Most teams would be quite happy to have either one of them. If we're trading one of them, teams would be interested in either.
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Post by jmei on Sept 15, 2015 9:49:30 GMT -5
This is not an adequate response to his question, since we're considering a scenario in which they are trading a good young catcher nonetheless and it's just a question of which one they should move. The real answer to that question is that many folks believe that the market doesn't adequately value pitch framing. Part of that is that there are likely some GMs who don't buy into the metrics, and recent transactions suggest that you can pick up a good-framing-catcher for cheaper than his pitch framing stats suggest he should be worth (e.g., the recent trades for Francisco Cervelli, Yasmani Grandal, Miguel Montero, Hank Conger). Of course, the real question that raises is whether the publicly-available framing metrics are accurate. If they were, you'd think there would be more of a bidding war for guys like Cervelli or Conger among the enlightened teams, or that someone would pick up Jose Molina despite his being an offensive black hole. Why isn't my answer enough? If Christian Vazquez' career ended, we'd be pretty damn thrilled to still have Swihart. We're debating over two very good young catchers. Most teams would be quite happy to have either one of them. If we're trading one of them, teams would be interested in either. No one is disputing that teams will be interested in both of them. The question is that if the Red Sox were to trade one, who should it be? An important ancillary question is: which catcher other teams will be more interested in? The argument I've seen a lot is that the Red Sox should trade Swihart because they can't get adequate value for Vazquez. That's the point that justinp123 is pushing back against-- how do we know that they can't get adequate value for Vazquez in a trade?
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2015 9:53:08 GMT -5
Why isn't my answer enough? If Christian Vazquez' career ended, we'd be pretty damn thrilled to still have Swihart. We're debating over two very good young catchers. Most teams would be quite happy to have either one of them. If we're trading one of them, teams would be interested in either. No one is disputing that teams will be interested in both of them. The question is that if the Red Sox were to trade one, who should it be? An important ancillary question is: which catcher other teams will be more interested in? The argument I've seen a lot is that the Red Sox should trade Swihart because they can't get adequate value for Vazquez. That's the point that justinp123 is pushing back against-- how do we know that they can't get adequate value for Vazquez in a trade? I didn't take that from this post. I'm just nitpicking, like everyone else so that's about enough of that for me.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 15, 2015 9:56:42 GMT -5
I voted C - but the decision really needs to wait until we see Vazquez's recovery from TJ surgery (see Wieters, Matt).
Also depends on what new GM values most behind the plate, offense or defense.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 15, 2015 9:59:22 GMT -5
Here is a scenario. What if neither get traded right away because of the same reasons we picking on catcher or the other? Neither has seen enough MLB time in order to get an accurate idea of how their skills will play out in the bigs.
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Post by justinp123 on Sept 15, 2015 10:00:31 GMT -5
So DD holds onto both for that exact reason. Give them both some more time in the majors and see what they really have in both.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 15, 2015 10:01:26 GMT -5
Here is a scenario. What if neither get traded right away because of the same reasons we picking on catcher or the other? Neither has seen enough MLB time in order to get an accurate idea of how their skills will play out in the bigs. I kind of feel like those complaining about this poll haven't read it. Just about every option states something similar to waiting a year or two before deciding and also "assuming Vazquez' recovery". If you can't deal with hypothetical questions, don't answer them.
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