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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 6:32:26 GMT -5
He gives up the long ball in the NL, so how do you think he does in the AL East? I'm not paying the price for someone who would be worse than he is now. You can say the same thing about any pitcher from NL going to AL East. He currently has the best HR rate of his career and is projected to give up 21 HR this year in 205 innings. He gave up 4 HR in first 3 starts and 1 HR in his last 5 starts. He looks to be pitching better then he ever has this year. You can really say the same thing even more about any flyball and HR prone pitcher. That's why we didn't try to sign or trade for Shields. That's also why he had no interest in going to an AL East team.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 6:57:50 GMT -5
You can say the same thing about any pitcher from NL going to AL East. He currently has the best HR rate of his career and is projected to give up 21 HR this year in 205 innings. He gave up 4 HR in first 3 starts and 1 HR in his last 5 starts. He looks to be pitching better then he ever has this year. You can really say the same thing even more about any flyball and HR prone pitcher. That's why we didn't try to sign or trade for Shields. That's also why he had no interest in going to an AL East team. He's a ground ball pitcher for last two years. Shields would have come to Sox in two seconds if they gave him contract Padres did. Sox didn't go after Shields do to age and contract length.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 7:03:30 GMT -5
You can really say the same thing even more about any flyball and HR prone pitcher. That's why we didn't try to sign or trade for Shields. That's also why he had no interest in going to an AL East team. He's a ground ball pitcher for last two years. Shields would have come to Sox in two seconds if they gave him contract Padres did. Sox didn't go after Shields do to age and contract length. SMH
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 19, 2016 7:29:32 GMT -5
Not sure which one we could obtain, but I think I'd flip Swihart for either Jimmy Nelson or Teheran. Both young & controlled through 2020. Right now I think we're just OK with our SP depth. I could be wrong, but I sense there is a serious drop-off after 5 or 6, meaning we are 1 injury (which will happen) away from trouble.
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Post by ajs1994 on May 19, 2016 10:18:52 GMT -5
You can really say the same thing even more about any flyball and HR prone pitcher. That's why we didn't try to sign or trade for Shields. That's also why he had no interest in going to an AL East team. He's a ground ball pitcher for last two years. Shields would have come to Sox in two seconds if they gave him contract Padres did. Sox didn't go after Shields do to age and contract length. Teheran has not been a ground ball pitcher the past two years. He was at 39.5% last year, which was the 15th lowest of qualified starters last year (which is a sample size of 77). This year he's at 44%, which has him pretty much middle of the pack (44th lowest of 99 qualifying starters). This is still somewhat small sample size territory, so it could go up or down (It went up 2% with his last start, for instance). I want no part of Teheran. His velocity is down to 90.0 this year, his swinging strike rate is also down from last year, when he was mediocre. I don't trust him to be much more than a slightly above replacement level pitcher going forward.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 11:37:43 GMT -5
He's a ground ball pitcher for last two years. Shields would have come to Sox in two seconds if they gave him contract Padres did. Sox didn't go after Shields do to age and contract length. Teheran has not been a ground ball pitcher the past two years. He was at 39.5% last year, which was the 15th lowest of qualified starters last year (which is a sample size of 77). This year he's at 44%, which has him pretty much middle of the pack (44th lowest of 99 qualifying starters). This is still somewhat small sample size territory, so it could go up or down (It went up 2% with his last start, for instance). I want no part of Teheran. His velocity is down to 90.0 this year, his swinging strike rate is also down from last year, when he was mediocre. I don't trust him to be much more than a slightly above replacement level pitcher going forward. Well when your ground ball rate is higher then your fly ball rate I would say your a ground ball pitcher.
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Post by ajs1994 on May 19, 2016 12:48:32 GMT -5
Teheran has not been a ground ball pitcher the past two years. He was at 39.5% last year, which was the 15th lowest of qualified starters last year (which is a sample size of 77). This year he's at 44%, which has him pretty much middle of the pack (44th lowest of 99 qualifying starters). This is still somewhat small sample size territory, so it could go up or down (It went up 2% with his last start, for instance). I want no part of Teheran. His velocity is down to 90.0 this year, his swinging strike rate is also down from last year, when he was mediocre. I don't trust him to be much more than a slightly above replacement level pitcher going forward. Well when your ground ball rate is higher then your fly ball rate I would say your a ground ball pitcher. Lol so every starter by your definition save 7 or 8 in any given year is a ground ball pitcher. Got it. I would venture most people would define a ground pitcher as someone who gets more ground balls in the aggregate than their peers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 19, 2016 13:16:30 GMT -5
Well when your ground ball rate is higher then your fly ball rate I would say your a ground ball pitcher. Lol so every starter by your definition save 7 or 8 in any given year is a ground ball pitcher. Got it. I would venture most people would define a ground pitcher as someone who gets more ground balls in the aggregate than their peers. Well 2 of the top 10 ten pitchers in fwar and 3 out of 15 currently have higher FB to GB ratio, so I find it very hard to believe it's 7 or 8 pitchers, but can't find those stats.
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Post by ajs1994 on May 19, 2016 16:22:21 GMT -5
Lol so every starter by your definition save 7 or 8 in any given year is a ground ball pitcher. Got it. I would venture most people would define a ground pitcher as someone who gets more ground balls in the aggregate than their peers. Well 2 of the top 10 ten pitchers in fwar and 3 out of 15 currently have higher FB to GB ratio, so I find it very hard to believe it's 7 or 8 pitchers, but can't find those stats. Last year, 13 of the 78 qualifying starters had a higher fly ball rate than ground ball rate, several of which were within a single percentage point. So by that measure, there were 13 starters who were fly ball pitchers, versus 65 ground ball pitchers. It still seems like an odd distinction to make versus how they actually compare to their peers, and I don't think how most would term a ground ball pitcher versus a fly ball pitcher.
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Post by jimed14 on May 19, 2016 16:56:08 GMT -5
In any event, Teheran would be much worse in the AL East than he is in Atlanta, which is indicated by every league adjusted stat you look at. And that's mostly because of his fly ball rate being higher than other pitchers.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2016 17:15:31 GMT -5
Not sure which one we could obtain, but I think I'd flip Swihart for either Jimmy Nelson or Teheran. Both young & controlled through 2020. Right now I think we're just OK with our SP depth. I could be wrong, but I sense there is a serious drop-off after 5 or 6, meaning we are 1 injury (which will happen) away from trouble. I'm warming to the Jimmy Nelson idea, although I think Swihart is too much to give up. Then again, that may be what's needed. I think Nelson has #2 upside, and he learns quickly. He's got five pitches and mixes them well. He's GB-heavy, meaning he probably translates well to Fenway. And, he produces weak contact, also suggesting good inter league translation.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2016 17:21:18 GMT -5
And Teheran would almost assuredly get shelled in the AL East. He gives up a ton of fly balls when compared to league average. That's especially bad in Fenway with the wall, against lefties in NY, and in general in Camden, which is HR heaven. He's as bad a fit for the Sox as Nelson is arguably a good fit. Plus, he'd likely cost more due to his longer track record.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 20, 2016 8:21:52 GMT -5
OK with skipping on Teheran, wasn't aware of his fly ball stats. DD should be on the phone with Milwaukee now, not June 30th. They are out of it now. E-Rod's knee, imo, will keep him out for a good chunk of the year. The division can be thrown away over the next 6 weeks. Swihart for Nelson is a win win.
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Post by ajs1994 on May 20, 2016 22:16:11 GMT -5
OK with skipping on Teheran, wasn't aware of his fly ball stats. DD should be on the phone with Milwaukee now, not June 30th. They are out of it now. E-Rod's knee, imo, will keep him out for a good chunk of the year. The division can be thrown away over the next 6 weeks. Swihart for Nelson is a win win. Yeah if Teheran were striking lots of guys out I'd be fine with the fly ball tendencies, but I don't love a fly ball/command profile without tremendous stuff. To me there's no perfect answer. Fun exercise: Player A: 7.37 k/9, 3.28 bb/9 .320 babip 46%gb rate 4.18 FIP 4.08 xFIP Player B: 7.51 k/9, 3.30 bb/9 .285 babip 51% gb rate 4.10 FIP 4.06 xFIP Player A is Joe Kelly. Player B is Jimmy Nelson. I'm not saying Joe Kelly is as good as Jimmy Nelson (Nelson is much more efficient with his pitch counts and able to go deeper into games) but to me the difference is probably isn't significant, and I'm no big fan of Joe Kelly. I'd love to add a 5th starter, but I'd like a substantive upgrade.
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