SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by dirtywater on Nov 6, 2015 9:23:54 GMT -5
I agree that they should avoid high end FA relievers at all costs. They just do not work out. I'd rather they take a chance on some middling to struggling starting pitcher or starting pitching prospect that maybe they can acquire for cheap and convert him to the bullpen.
My candidates would include guys like (and trust me I'm spitballin'):
Jeremy Hellickson Alfredo Simon Vance Worley Eddie Butler Drew Pomeranz Bud Norris (gulp) Felix Doubront (double gulp)
I think most of these guys could be acquired relatively on the cheap and could produce in a bullpen role (now shun me)
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2015 10:31:37 GMT -5
I think too much is made of relief pitchers being volatile. The really good ones aren't that volatile. It's not as if putting a good bullpen together is a matter of total luck and the only strategy is to buy low on guys that weren't good last year.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater on Nov 6, 2015 10:51:10 GMT -5
Every narrative in moderation I guess. Pomeranz has actually been pretty good for Oakland. Wonder if he'd be available.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 6, 2015 11:52:35 GMT -5
I think too much is made of relief pitchers being volatile. The really good ones aren't that volatile. It's not as if putting a good bullpen together is a matter of total luck and the only strategy is to buy low on guys that weren't good last year. I'm not sure we can keep this "buy low" thing up. It worked in 2013, but I can't remember where it has worked since (I'm sure someone will give me an example where it has). Even when we tried to just get a decent guy (Varvaro, Craig, jury still out on Kelly, Porcello) it hasn't worked out.....Miley was neutral....De La Rosa maybe could have gotten us the same performance. I agree on the volatile note. If you've been good for more than a few years, they're probably going to stay good for a few more, obviously there are exceptions, but most of those implosions have been older guys.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 6, 2015 12:22:31 GMT -5
I think too much is made of relief pitchers being volatile. The really good ones aren't that volatile. It's not as if putting a good bullpen together is a matter of total luck and the only strategy is to buy low on guys that weren't good last year. For shiggles, I just compared the 2015 and 2013 Fangraphs leaderboards for relievers sorted by WAR. 8 names are on both top 30 lists. For comparison's sake, 9 starters were on both starter lists, although they trended much more toward the top - Kershaw, Price, Scherzer, Sale - than the relievers did, where it was a lot more random (although I note that three of the 2013 top five were Koji, Greg Holland, and Joe Nathan, so maybe that's because of injury too). Based on the eyeball test, it looks more that the relievers who were on the 2013 list tended more to fall off the map entirely - guys like Ryan Cook, Danny Farquhar, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, etc. - than the starters did, where many of the guys who didn't return in 2015's list struck me more as falling back into #3-ish starter types, like . But again, that's just eyeballing it. Anyway, I'm sure there's a better study of this, but just by doing it quickly, my takeaway is that you may have a point in general that it's a bit overstated, but I do think there is reason to be cautious before just going out and throwing money at the setup men du jour.
|
|
|
Post by dirtywater on Nov 6, 2015 12:41:10 GMT -5
Ok I am not proposing the Sox just go out and get reclamation projects for the bullpen and hope for the best. But I'd much rather see experimentation that's all. I think this is an underrated aspect. Try young guys like Owens / Johnson / Aro / Light / Barnes as well. Sox seem to be afraid of moving higher level starting pitching prospects in the bullpen. I feel like when teams acquire a veteran reliever by trade or free agency, they tend to ride him out a lot longer than they probably should because they are invested (sunk cost). re: Mujica. I just hate being handcuffed to bad relievers. Seems like it happens with the Sox all the time. When a team uses castoffs, former starters and young players you can mix and match to your heart's desire by making the proper promotions/demotions/DFAs without worrying about sunk costs. It allows teams to mix and match to find relievers and combinations that work instead of sticking with your guys because the FO made put some extra money into the performance. This is why small market teams always seem to have good bullpens, imo.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 6, 2015 12:50:29 GMT -5
I think too much is made of relief pitchers being volatile. The really good ones aren't that volatile. It's not as if putting a good bullpen together is a matter of total luck and the only strategy is to buy low on guys that weren't good last year. For shiggles, I just compared the 2015 and 2013 Fangraphs leaderboards for relievers sorted by WAR. 8 names are on both top 30 lists. For comparison's sake, 9 starters were on both starter lists, although they trended much more toward the top - Kershaw, Price, Scherzer, Sale - than the relievers did, where it was a lot more random (although I note that three of the 2013 top five were Koji, Greg Holland, and Joe Nathan, so maybe that's because of injury too). Based on the eyeball test, it looks more that the relievers who were on the 2013 list tended more to fall off the map entirely - guys like Ryan Cook, Danny Farquhar, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, etc. - than the starters did, where many of the guys who didn't return in 2015's list struck me more as falling back into #3-ish starter types, like . But again, that's just eyeballing it. Anyway, I'm sure there's a better study of this, but just by doing it quickly, my takeaway is that you may have a point in general that it's a bit overstated, but I do think there is reason to be cautious before just going out and throwing money at the setup men du jour. I guess the point I was making is that I don't expect Kimbrell or Chapman to be replacement level next year. They might be 3-4 years from now, but they've been really damn good for 4-5 years so I expect them to continue for a little bit longer. I'd even add Papelbon to that list though I'd be really careful right now given his age. There are a lot who vary greatly year to year, but the elite ones seem to be elite for 4-5 years or more especially considering the ones under 30. Obviously that doesn't account for injuries like with Bailey or Hanrahan, but the writing was on the wall with those guys. I'd be a lot more careful with the guys who were elite for a very short period of time and would not give up a lot or hand out a huge contract to those kinds of relief pitchers. Francisco Rodney is actually a good example, who first became good at age 35. Brian Wilson who only had two good seasons in his career is another example. 1-2 years of relief pitching is still a pretty small sample in terms of pitching. 4-5 years isn't. This brings up another point in that I don't believe the stats used to judge relief pitchers are all that great. A relief pitcher that gives up 8 runs in one game with 7 scoreless games is a lot better than a relief pitcher that gives up 1 run in each of 8 games. You need some new stats to judge relief pitchers IMO. You could do this for starters as well actually.
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,797
|
Post by mobaz on Nov 6, 2015 15:34:54 GMT -5
Ok I am not proposing the Sox just go out and get reclamation projects for the bullpen and hope for the best. But I'd much rather see experimentation that's all. I think this is an underrated aspect. Try young guys like Owens / Johnson / Aro / Light / Barnes as well. Sox seem to be afraid of moving higher level starting pitching prospects in the bullpen. I feel like when teams acquire a veteran reliever by trade or free agency, they tend to ride him out a lot longer than they probably should because they are invested (sunk cost). re: Mujica. I just hate being handcuffed to bad relievers. Seems like it happens with the Sox all the time. When a team uses castoffs, former starters and young players you can mix and match to your heart's desire by making the proper promotions/demotions/DFAs without worrying about sunk costs. It allows teams to mix and match to find relievers and combinations that work instead of sticking with your guys because the FO made put some extra money into the performance. This is why small market teams always seem to have good bullpens, imo. The Tigers let a young Drew Smyly bounce a little, so I wonder if DDo is more likely to put Owens or Johnson in a swingman or relief role, knowing it's not necessary permanent.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 6, 2015 22:37:27 GMT -5
I hope we target O'Day, really want him.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 6, 2015 22:46:46 GMT -5
I agree that they should avoid high end FA relievers at all costs. They just do not work out. I'd rather they take a chance on some middling to struggling starting pitcher or starting pitching prospect that maybe they can acquire for cheap and convert him to the bullpen. My candidates would include guys like (and trust me I'm spitballin'): Jeremy Hellickson Alfredo Simon Vance Worley Eddie Butler Drew Pomeranz Bud Norris (gulp) Felix Doubront (double gulp) I think most of these guys could be acquired relatively on the cheap and could produce in a bullpen role (now shun me) Initial thoughts: -I don't think Pomeranz would be cheap. At least not dumpster cheap. -I have a better chance of pitching for John Farrell than Felix Doubront does. -Signing Bud Norris would be a direct insult to half the players in the locker room. I wouldn't hire him to clean the toilets. -Vance Worley on the cheap isn't a bad idea at all. He's a guy I think profiles well as a swingman.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Nov 7, 2015 1:37:38 GMT -5
I hope we target O'Day, really want him. Seems like a lot of teams would be interested in him as well. He is definitely one to watch in free agency. I still think we match up well with San Diego as a trading partner. I would love to get Kimbrell,quackenbach and a starter from them in a trade or trades. Kimbrell should be lights out as our closer. Uehara could split the eighth with tawaza and save both their arms. And I just like quackenbach as a guy about to put it all together.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 7, 2015 8:04:08 GMT -5
The price on Kimbrel is pretty high, not sure I'm willing to meet it.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Nov 7, 2015 8:03:52 GMT -5
Obviously that doesn't account for injuries like with Bailey or Hanrahan, but the writing was on the wall with those guys. I'm not sure what you're referring to with that last bit about writing on the wall. Bailey was 28 when they traded for him, and in the three years prior, he put up a 174 IP, 2.07 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 2.90 SIERA line. Hanrahan was 31 when they traded for him, and in the three years prior, he put up a 198 IP, 2.73 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 2.88 SIERA line. Now, neither of those match Chapman or Kimbrell's historic levels of performance in recent years, but it'd be hard to argue that they were anything but elite relievers with a multi-year track record of success.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2015 8:27:01 GMT -5
In the two years before trading for him, Hanrahan had thrown 128 1/3 innings with a 167 ERA+ and 3.7 bWAR. In the last two seasons, Kimbrel has thrown 121 innings with a 175 ERA+ and a 3.8 bWAR.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 7, 2015 11:32:43 GMT -5
For shiggles, I just compared the 2015 and 2013 Fangraphs leaderboards for relievers sorted by WAR. 8 names are on both top 30 lists. For comparison's sake, 9 starters were on both starter lists, although they trended much more toward the top - Kershaw, Price, Scherzer, Sale - than the relievers did, where it was a lot more random (although I note that three of the 2013 top five were Koji, Greg Holland, and Joe Nathan, so maybe that's because of injury too). Based on the eyeball test, it looks more that the relievers who were on the 2013 list tended more to fall off the map entirely - guys like Ryan Cook, Danny Farquhar, Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, etc. - than the starters did, where many of the guys who didn't return in 2015's list struck me more as falling back into #3-ish starter types, like . But again, that's just eyeballing it. Anyway, I'm sure there's a better study of this, but just by doing it quickly, my takeaway is that you may have a point in general that it's a bit overstated, but I do think there is reason to be cautious before just going out and throwing money at the setup men du jour. I guess the point I was making is that I don't expect Kimbrell or Chapman to be replacement level next year. They might be 3-4 years from now, but they've been really damn good for 4-5 years so I expect them to continue for a little bit longer. I'd even add Papelbon to that list though I'd be really careful right now given his age. There are a lot who vary greatly year to year, but the elite ones seem to be elite for 4-5 years or more especially considering the ones under 30. Obviously that doesn't account for injuries like with Bailey or Hanrahan, but the writing was on the wall with those guys. I'd be a lot more careful with the guys who were elite for a very short period of time and would not give up a lot or hand out a huge contract to those kinds of relief pitchers. Francisco Rodney is actually a good example, who first became good at age 35. Brian Wilson who only had two good seasons in his career is another example. 1-2 years of relief pitching is still a pretty small sample in terms of pitching. 4-5 years isn't. This brings up another point in that I don't believe the stats used to judge relief pitchers are all that great. A relief pitcher that gives up 8 runs in one game with 7 scoreless games is a lot better than a relief pitcher that gives up 1 run in each of 8 games. You need some new stats to judge relief pitchers IMO. You could do this for starters as well actually. Dombrowski made my point for me, along with other points. From 108 Stitches:
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Nov 7, 2015 11:36:30 GMT -5
Joaquin Soria should be of interest to our GM who is seeking power arms. He once traded for him for the Tigers. Had a 2.53 era last season with 1K per inning, 24 saves, 11 holds stat line.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2015 12:30:37 GMT -5
Soria just didn't look very sharp to me when I saw him with the Tigers, but his numbers seemed to take a real step forward with the Pirates. Chances are it was a small-sample mirage, but Searage is one of the better pitching coaches around. If there was a minor adjustment that needed to be made he was probably in the right place to make it. The other issue with Soria is how much of a Proven CloserTM boost he will get on the market.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 8, 2015 12:16:25 GMT -5
Soria's a tricky case. In both 2014 and 2015, he looked incredibly mediocre with Detoit -- he was missing less bats than ever and couldn't keep the ball in the park. But similar to the beginning of 2014 with Texas, he looked absolutely dominant in Pittsburgh. Something that caught me off guard after seeing he posted his lowest K% in 2015: he was throwing harder than ever, averaging 92 on the fastball after his 90.7 and 90.3 showings in 2013 and 2014.
Do you offer him $16m/2 years, knowing you can't be shocked if you get a ~3.50-4.00 FIP pitcher out of it? Worth noting that he's completely neutralized RHB's the last couple seasons -- not quite O'Day status, but far better than a healthy/rested Tazawa.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 8, 2015 12:30:16 GMT -5
Anthony Varvaro is a case of someone you can't count on heading into the season, but who could be a bargain if he's able to return to form following the surgery. I was pleased to see the Sox retain him, and while he's arb-eligible, they should be able to sign him for a rather low rate. Let's not forget, this was a guy with a couple seasons mowing down LHB's, while still holding his own vs. RHB's. Layne may be a fine LOOGY, but he's un-pitchable against righties, as he either gives up shot after shot to them, or walks them at an unacceptable rate.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Nov 8, 2015 15:38:58 GMT -5
The price on Kimbrel is pretty high, not sure I'm willing to meet it. Depends is we use FA to sign Price/Zimmerman/Cueto/Greinke. If so, I would be more willing to more some of the farm for Kimbrel or Chapman.
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Nov 8, 2015 15:54:13 GMT -5
I'm not sure we can sign all those guys
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Nov 8, 2015 16:14:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure we can sign all those guys Im referring to signing one of those guys rather than having to acquire a front line starter through trade. If we have to use 3-4 trade pieces to acquire starting pitching I would be more reluctant to further deplete the farm system to acquire a top end closer. But if we can sign a legit front end starter though FA, then I think it makes sense to use are farm depth to bring in Chapman or Kimbrel
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Nov 8, 2015 16:43:51 GMT -5
Pretty sure he was joking...
And how much of the farm would we need to sell for a closer? I feel like Marrero and one more good piece would be enough to land one of them, especially Chapman who only has a year of control left.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 8, 2015 16:48:09 GMT -5
Pretty sure he was joking... And how much of the farm would we need to sell for a closer? I feel like Marrero and one more good piece would be enough to land one of them, especially Chapman who only has a year of control left. It would depend on how good the piece is. It's debatable whether Marrero will hit enough to allow him to be regular SS. He might only be a utility man. I would think it would cost a lot more than that to land Chapman. The lot more might be a starter like Owens or a CF like Margot. That might do it, but even then there could be other clubs that can beat a package of Margot or Owens and Marrero.
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Nov 8, 2015 17:09:13 GMT -5
I'm not sure we can sign all those guys "Okay everyone, we know last year's 'five aces' were kind of a flop.. This year, however..."
|
|
|