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Choose Your Own Adventure: You're Dave Dombrowski!
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 16, 2015 18:24:46 GMT -5
Why is Price the obvious top target? Greinke should be. He's better, doesn't suck in the playoffs and is right handed. With Miley, Rodriguez and Owens we don't want another lefty IF a right handed pitcher is a legit option. Now is rather Price than Zimmerman but that's because I'm not downgrading just to have a righty. Greinke is not better than Price, is older and costs a pick. Greinke furthermore has anxiety issues, while Price is AL East proven.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 20:17:36 GMT -5
Why is Price the obvious top target? Greinke should be. He's better, doesn't suck in the playoffs and is right handed. With Miley, Rodriguez and Owens we don't want another lefty IF a right handed pitcher is a legit option. Now is rather Price than Zimmerman but that's because I'm not downgrading just to have a righty. Greinke is not better than Price, is older and costs a pick. Greinke furthermore has anxiety issues, while Price is AL East proven. The anxiety stuff is infuriating. He mentioned that in 2010. As a much younger guy about to head into free agency, trying to make some big bucks. Since then, he's dominated in the 6th to 7th biggest market in baseball. He's pitched in the postseason. He's gotten married. He's had a kid. He's made enough money to set up generations of his family. Let's not pretend the game of baseball is the same nerve wracking experience it was back then when he was trying to cash in. Let's not forget David Price saying his nerves got to him this year in that really bad postseason start. No one is immune from it. The two are sort of a wash. Greinke is not a max effort guy whatsoever. Seems like someone who will age well. Price seemed to make that shift a little, especially this season after he added a cutter. Price used to be a max effort guy pumping fastballs. Honestly I could care less between the two. Get one of them. 12th pick be damned. One of those two guys being the man the next 3 years while bogaerts betts swihart and erod are all in prime years is good by me.
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Post by geostorm on Nov 16, 2015 20:25:57 GMT -5
I also don't think Sam Travis is the key here. The Braves don't have the DH so trading for Hanley and Travis seems counterproductive. Also, Sam has been raking but I don't think anybody projects him to be as good as Freeman has been. Career OPS+ 126 at very young ages. I like the ATL as a trade partner, but more checking in on potential of adding a controllable RP power arm piece, understanding each carries their own risk, team is willing to take on. From - CWithrow/AVizcaino/MFoltynewicz
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Post by jiant2520 on Nov 16, 2015 21:51:16 GMT -5
I don't think Grienke's anxiety will have any impact on his next deal... nor should it. I think he and Price are fairly equal, however in saying that if I had a choice I'd take Price as to keep our #12 pick... only makes sense. With that said, I would not hesitate to sign Grienke and give up that pick if Price signs elsewhere or just doesn't choose Boston.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 16, 2015 22:41:28 GMT -5
I took a look at the MLBTraderumors for the Braves and it appears that the Braves are also looking to move Tehran. I like Tehran but was disappointed with his 2015 stats but a closer exam says, no drop in velocities, a miserable first half with significant improvement over the second half and a dominant Sept/Oct. He's 24, signed cheap through 2019 with a 2020 option.
Heresy but if I were DD..
Hanley Devers Marrero (Aybar is a rental) Miley cash (difference between Freeman and Hanley's contracts)
for
Freeman Tehran
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 23:33:00 GMT -5
I took a look at the MLBTraderumors for the Braves and it appears that the Braves are also looking to move Tehran. I like Tehran but was disappointed with his 2015 stats but a closer exam says, no drop in velocities, a miserable first half with significant improvement over the second half and a dominant Sept/Oct. He's 24, signed cheap through 2019 with a 2020 option. Heresy but if I were DD.. Hanley Devers Marrero (Aybar is a rental) Miley cash (difference between Freeman and Hanley's contracts) for Freeman Tehran You'd be GM of the decade if you could pull off that trade.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 17, 2015 0:01:37 GMT -5
The Braves have already moved one of the best SS in baseball who was signed to a team friendly long term contract (thru 2020), Simmons, for two young pitching prospects (AA cups of coffee in a weak system) and a rental in Aybar plus the difference in their salaries. Their farm is loaded with pitching but pretty barren in position players. They are clearly thinking 2018/9 or after and looking around, there aren't many teams that have an opening at first base.
Note that Tehran is not your typical high velocity young gun and that he had an off year. He's not an 'ace' but likely significantly better than Miley.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 17, 2015 1:52:37 GMT -5
The Braves have already moved one of the best SS in baseball who was signed to a team friendly long term contract (thru 2020), Simmons, for two young pitching prospects (AA cups of coffee in a weak system) and a rental in Aybar plus the difference in their salaries. Their farm is loaded with pitching but pretty barren in position players. They are clearly thinking 2018/9 or after and looking around, there aren't many teams that have an opening at first base. Note that Tehran is not your typical high velocity young gun and that he had an off year. He's not an 'ace' but likely significantly better than Miley. I just don't see what's attractive about that deal at all to the braves. They get Devers I guess? They have Aybar as a stopgap to Albies, not sure why they need Marrero? They essentially sit him for this year, and then play him next year, and then deal him? Why not just get a prospect they have a future for? Also why would they want Miley as opposed to a prospect like Owens? Teheran and Miley's deals are oddly similar, except Teheran has an extra year on the front for 3.5 million. Why not just keep Teheran if he's better? They're essentially getting worse at pitcher and first, and instead of having control of guys when they could compete, they now are loading up on guys earning salaries when they're not competing. And the only useful prospect from their perspective is Devers?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 17, 2015 2:19:19 GMT -5
Devers is obviously the key piece here.
Albies is 18 and in single A, and Aybar is a one year rental. At the end of next season, Marrero replacing Aybar would represent a considerable payroll savings (Aybar is $8.5m). That would also give them the option of moving Aybar for a prospect this year. They are obviously in wheeling and dealing mode.
I don't see the Sox as likely to consider that trade with Owens vs Miley. My opinion only but Owens and Tehran are similar projected value except that Tehran has more ML experience and therefore less control and a higher floor. Ceilings and likely career numbers seem very similar to me.
Any trade speculation or proposals are just pie in the sky. The topic was what we'd do if we were DD. That's what I'd take a shot at, your mileage may vary and certainly DD's mileage will.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 17, 2015 7:44:56 GMT -5
Greinke is not better than Price, is older and costs a pick. Greinke furthermore has anxiety issues, while Price is AL East proven. The anxiety stuff is infuriating. He mentioned that in 2010. As a much younger guy about to head into free agency, trying to make some big bucks. Since then, he's dominated in the 6th to 7th biggest market in baseball. He's pitched in the postseason. He's gotten married. He's had a kid. He's made enough money to set up generations of his family. Let's not pretend the game of baseball is the same nerve wracking experience it was back then when he was trying to cash in. Let's not forget David Price saying his nerves got to him this year in that really bad postseason start. No one is immune from it. I realize it has almost gotten to be anti-PC to even mention his anxiety, but LA is also the same market that Crawford and Agon does fine in. The media is 1/10th as harsh there as it is in Boston in regards to baseball. To pretend that everything is equal in all markets and that every professional player is identically capable of handling the media is naive.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 17, 2015 8:37:39 GMT -5
The anxiety stuff is infuriating. He mentioned that in 2010. As a much younger guy about to head into free agency, trying to make some big bucks. Since then, he's dominated in the 6th to 7th biggest market in baseball. He's pitched in the postseason. He's gotten married. He's had a kid. He's made enough money to set up generations of his family. Let's not pretend the game of baseball is the same nerve wracking experience it was back then when he was trying to cash in. Let's not forget David Price saying his nerves got to him this year in that really bad postseason start. No one is immune from it. I realize it has almost gotten to be anti-PC to even mention his anxiety, but LA is also the same market that Crawford and Agon does fine in. The media is 1/10th as harsh there as it is in Boston in regards to baseball. To pretend that everything is equal in all markets and that every professional player is identically capable of handling the media is naive. They key here is if Grienke or Price WANTS to come to Boston. With the money, they will probably get similar deals from multiple teams. We may have to overpay to get one of them unless they do want to come here.
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Post by dirtywater on Nov 17, 2015 10:04:34 GMT -5
If anything David Price's anxiety worries me more than Grienke. Let's not forget this guy pretty much had a mental breakdown on Twitter after he got lit up in the playoffs against us.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 17, 2015 10:09:27 GMT -5
Version 2 taking into account the Kimbrel trade:
Sign Heyward 8/176 Re sign Rich Hill 2/10 plus incentives Trade Castillo and Barnes for Trevor Bauer Sign Rajai Davis 1/8
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 17, 2015 10:47:36 GMT -5
Version 2 taking into account the Kimbrel trade: Sign Heyward 8/176 Re sign Rich Hill 2/10 plus incentives Trade Castillo and Barnes for Trevor Bauer Sign Rajai Davis 1/8 Although Heyward would obviously be an upgrade over Castillo, He can turn into Ellsbury in a heartbeat. I don't like these 7-10 year deals. Look around the league, especially with the NYY & Cincinnati, they are financially crippled due to these signings. The teams without them are thriving (for the most part), StL, KC, SF....The only way I give 7 or 8 years is for a young starter such as a Sale & even then I'm not sure. I do like the Hill & Davis signings though. Even with our recent 4 or 5 year deals from last winter, after ONE year they are in the toilet.
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Post by jmei on Nov 17, 2015 10:51:28 GMT -5
Remember, Heyward turned 26 in August. A 10 year deal for him is materially different than the 10 year deal Alex Rodriguez signed at age 32 or even the 10 year deal that Joey Votto signed at age 28.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 17, 2015 11:10:14 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 17, 2015 11:47:17 GMT -5
The Braves have already moved one of the best SS in baseball who was signed to a team friendly long term contract (thru 2020), Simmons, for two young pitching prospects (AA cups of coffee in a weak system) and a rental in Aybar plus the difference in their salaries. Their farm is loaded with pitching but pretty barren in position players. They are clearly thinking 2018/9 or after and looking around, there aren't many teams that have an opening at first base. Note that Tehran is not your typical high velocity young gun and that he had an off year. He's not an 'ace' but likely significantly better than Miley. The biggest issue with your deal is Hanley. There is no realistic scenario where the Braves want him. He's not an asset in any way to them. You'd have to send enough prospects AND money to get Tehran, Freeman and have them take Hanley. They are entertaining moving these players to get prospects and shed salary so "offsetting" Freeman's feel is of no interest to them. You're leaving them with a much lessor player for the same money. Additionally, it's not impossible, but highly unlikely that both get moved in same deal. The Braves want to maximize the return so the Red Sox need to trade enough prospects to get two star players. Basically, build two separate deals and put them together. You don't get a bulk discount. Neither of these players has a bad contract, they would both be sought after on their own.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2015 12:23:32 GMT -5
Assuming that they're at ~$180m right now and plan on having a payroll in the $210m range:
All free agents version: Sign Jeff Samardzija for 4/$70m (+17.5m) Sign Steve Pearce for 2/$15m (+7.5m) Sign Shawn Kelley for 2/$10m (+5m)
Reasonable trades version: Sign Jason Heyward for 8/$200m (+25m) Acquire Danny Salazar for Jackie Bradley Jr. and Henry Owens (-$0.5m) Sign Chris Denorfia for 1/$4m (+4m) Sign David Carpenter for 1/$1.5m (+1.5m)
Extreme trades version: Trade Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, Rafael Devers and Michael Kopech for Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton (+27m) Trade Hanley Ramirez + $33m for Carlos Santana (-7m) Sign Nori Aoki for 2/$14m (+7m) Sign Seung-Hwan Oh for 1/$3m (+3m)
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 19, 2015 16:32:33 GMT -5
Thinks I haven't seen but would like to have happen:
A bid on Maeda and signed to a 4 year 52 million dollar deal. Sign Lincecum to a year 5 million dollar deal with a club option for next season, could turn out to be a good bullpen guy and spot starter A 2 year deal for Iwakuma if the sox forfeit the 12th pick for an OF like Gordon or heyward. Minimal long term spending on SP and preparing a significant contract offer for Otani in 2 years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2015 9:23:59 GMT -5
Assuming that they're at ~$180m right now and plan on having a payroll in the $210m range: All free agents version: Sign Jeff Samardzija for 4/$70m (+17.5m) Sign Steve Pearce for 2/$15m (+7.5m) Sign Shawn Kelley for 2/$10m (+5m) Reasonable trades version: Sign Jason Heyward for 8/$200m (+25m) Acquire Danny Salazar for Jackie Bradley Jr. and Henry Owens (-$0.5m) Sign Chris Denorfia for 1/$4m (+4m) Sign David Carpenter for 1/$1.5m (+1.5m) Extreme trades version: Trade Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, Rafael Devers and Michael Kopech for Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton (+27m) Trade Hanley Ramirez + $33m for Carlos Santana (-7m) Sign Nori Aoki for 2/$14m (+7m) Sign Seung-Hwan Oh for 1/$3m (+3m) Have to say that I think Samardzija for 4 years and 70 million would be a good deal, but I can't give up the 12th pick for a guy that might be a #2 and more likely a #3. That's what makes this year so hard, the #12 pick is not a late first round pick. I just can't see losing that pick for anyone other then an elite player. I would rather throw a bunch more cash at Cueto or go after Kazmir. Heck I would roll the dice on Fister if healthy.
So I think Cueto at 5 years and 130 million is the guy I would go after
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2015 9:40:46 GMT -5
Am I the only one who thinks a salary dump trade with Buchholz, assuming you sign a free agent starter, is best for this team?
Rotation:
Price/Greinke/cueto/Samardzija Porcello E-Rod Miley Kelly/Owens
Is preferable to me than having Bucholz near this team. Not only do I prefer to give Kelly or Owens the innings, but I'd love to see them then spend that money in the bullpen. Hell Jmei can maybe get his ODay binky:
Kimbrel Koji FA: ODay/Soria/Madson Taz Layne Wright Winner of ST competition
To me Buchholz is a black hole wasted salary spot. And I was a Clay guy, big time, but last year broke me. He's useless, potentially hurtful even. Time to move on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 20, 2015 10:05:36 GMT -5
Am I the only one who thinks a salary dump trade with Buchholz, assuming you sign a free agent starter, is best for this team? Rotation: Price/Greinke/cueto/Samardzija Porcello E-Rod Miley Kelly/Owens Is preferable to me than having Bucholz near this team. Not only do I prefer to give Kelly or Owens the innings, but I'd love to see them then spend that money in the bullpen. Hell Jmei can maybe get his ODay binky: Kimbrel Koji FA: ODay/Soria/Madson Taz Layne Wright Winner of ST competition To me Buchholz is a black hole wasted salary spot. And I was a Clay guy, big time, but last year broke me. He's useless, potentially hurtful even. Time to move on. Last year, when he was a nearly three-win player, "broke you?" Even if we assume that he's going to be hurt half the year or something, wouldn't half a season of Buchholz and half a season of, say, Owens be better than the full season of Owens? Also not sure why the Red Sox need a salary dump. They don't need to clear payroll space to make moves or anything.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2015 10:15:49 GMT -5
Am I the only one who thinks a salary dump trade with Buchholz, assuming you sign a free agent starter, is best for this team? Rotation: Price/Greinke/cueto/Samardzija Porcello E-Rod Miley Kelly/Owens Is preferable to me than having Bucholz near this team. Not only do I prefer to give Kelly or Owens the innings, but I'd love to see them then spend that money in the bullpen. Hell Jmei can maybe get his ODay binky: Kimbrel Koji FA: ODay/Soria/Madson Taz Layne Wright Winner of ST competition To me Buchholz is a black hole wasted salary spot. And I was a Clay guy, big time, but last year broke me. He's useless, potentially hurtful even. Time to move on. Yes you are. We aren't a small market team and thus Clays salary won't impact signing an Ace and an elite reliever like ODay. Clay showed you last year when healthy he is still a very good starter. For what Clay made last year and what he did he was still a great value!!! For me having someone like Owens/Kelly as my 6th/7th starter is why I don't mind Clay. If he gets injured or is ineffective we have the depth to cover for him. On the other hand one of these years he is going to stay healthy while pitching well and I want him on my team when he does.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Nov 20, 2015 10:44:09 GMT -5
It may just be me & I could be wrong, but it seems more often than not, guys who sign their last big contract in their early 30's don't have anything more to "strive" for or injuries take over (M Upton, J Bay, Pablo, Pedro, Mike Hampton, Zito, Werth, Crawford, Pujols (to an extent), Josh Hamilton, Sabathia, Johan Santana...ect ect ect ect) Texeira been a wash....Even subconsciously, these guys won't run through a wall for you to save that out, or play through an injury. If I'm an owner, I'd stay way from these "last" contracts & stick with the Porcello type deals or pre-arb guys where they're still playing for something. I know some have worked out, just seems to be a 1 out of 5 at best.
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Post by soxcentral on Nov 20, 2015 10:58:52 GMT -5
Am I the only one who thinks a salary dump trade with Buchholz, assuming you sign a free agent starter, is best for this team? Yes you are No, you're not. Clay may have been a 3 win player in 1/2 a season last year, but what are the odds he does that again this year? He's coming off an elbow injury that was severe enough to shut him down for 3 months. He's never been consistently good, and has the frame of a pitcher who typically breaks down as they get into their 30's. I'm surprised that many of the same people here who are leery of signing pitchers in their 30's are also just as certain Clay is a great bet to return to elite status after an elbow injury, and thus is a huge bargain at $13M. He's a huge risk if you're penciling him into your #1 or 2 slot in the rotation and he's definitely going to limit your ability to get two of a top OF (Heyward, etc), #1 Starter, and additional reliever. Not to mention, trading him now may net you one of those 3 needs while freeing up the cash to do the other two with premium players.
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