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Post by chavopepe2 on Dec 14, 2015 9:48:48 GMT -5
Smith was a tad better in 2015. Herrera has a multi-year record of success and is, amazingly, a few months younger. Smith's peripherals are significantly better the past two years. FIP, xFIP, SIERA all heavily favor Smith. Herrera has outperformed his peripherals, which may partly be because of some BABIP skill, but that's harder to rely on IMO. Smith through all of 8 1/3 innings two years ago.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 14, 2015 10:45:51 GMT -5
Smith was a tad better in 2015. Herrera has a multi-year record of success and is, amazingly, a few months younger. Smith's peripherals are significantly better the past two years. FIP, xFIP, SIERA all heavily favor Smith. Herrera has outperformed his peripherals, which may partly be because of some BABIP skill, but that's harder to rely on IMO. Smith's 2014 consisted of 8 1/3 innings. It's really hard to make any definitive statement on a pitcher based on 78 career innings, and I'm just not confortable saying, with certainty, that he's better than Herrera (who is pretty clearly a very good pitcher). Herrera and Smith are close enough statistically that it's well within the range where I'd trust my scouts to make that call. The upgrade to Elias, though (even at the expense of Aro, who I really do like quite a bit), makes the Seattle package the better one. Though we don't know for sure that a Royals deal would've been Miley-for-Herrera straight up. Herrera's three years of control vs. Smith's five is of some importance, though. Having a potential future closer under contract after Kimbrel's runs out has value.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 14, 2015 11:24:17 GMT -5
Smith's peripherals are significantly better the past two years. FIP, xFIP, SIERA all heavily favor Smith. Herrera has outperformed his peripherals, which may partly be because of some BABIP skill, but that's harder to rely on IMO. Smith through all of 8 1/3 innings two years ago. If the Royals weren't on the main stage the past two years, he wouldn't get nearly as much credit as he does still. He's a good, yet unspectacular reliever. I'll take 5 years of Smith over 3 of Herrera. Smith hasn't been tested in situations like Herrera, but I don't think that's enough to just ignore the fact that Herrera has an ERA that is close to half of his SIERA. I think it's fair to say 78 innings total isn't enough of a track record to use definitively, but Smith's minor league numbers (AA and AAA) are impressive in similar ways. Herrera is around average in K% among late inning relievers while walking a similar percentage of batters as Smith has throughout his AA-MLB career. Smith's K's may fall, but he also gets a ton of GB which is a perk that Herrera can't boast either.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Dec 14, 2015 11:39:27 GMT -5
Just glancing at his minor league numbers, he was quite good in a couple of hitter friendly leagues (PCL & California League)....I know he didn't have a massive amount of work in the minors, just saying with his overall body of work, he has some record to go on aside from 2015.
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