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Post by James Dunne on Aug 22, 2016 21:55:38 GMT -5
You all know he's not actually reporting to Dunedin, right? They're just giving him a 10-day break late in a long season. They can't just put a healthy pitcher on the DL, and they'd lose him for six more days than they are planning to. You can put a healthy pitcher with options in the minor leagues so that you're not playing with a 24-man roster for 10 days in a pennant race.
It also doesn't affect his service time. He came into the season at 1.069, which means he'll be nowhere near Super Two status but he'd also need to spend about two months in the minors to lose a year of service. This is just maximizing the roster while giving the kid a rest, not an actual demotion.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 22, 2016 22:28:35 GMT -5
Yeah, it's the Blue Jays we're talking about, not the Diamondbacks.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 23, 2016 8:19:57 GMT -5
With 2 HR last night, Sanchez has 8 already and has dethroned Sandy in catchers WAR/game. If his framing is good, this guy is a star, unfortunately. He's not this good of a hitter, but can definitely hit for power in this division.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 23, 2016 9:59:09 GMT -5
Oh yeah, I absolutely agree there. I was just commenting on the apparent lack of options being the cause for Britton to be mentioned. It's slightly less insulting than K-Rod a few years back, but not by much. That's not really the case though, it just looks that way because of the league wide increase in offense this year. Last year Keuchel had a raw ERA of 2.48 last year and an ERA+ of 155; this Cole Hamels has a raw ERA of 2.80 but an ERA+ of 162. The "weak" AL Cy Young class is just a combination of a change in run environment and a lack of the usual voter crutches, i.e. name recognition and gaudy W/L records. I guess you could argue that the increase in offense has more to do with weaker pitchers than stronger hitters, but that's not really the award is it? It's about the best pitcher in a given year, and the best pitchers this year are outperforming their peers by about the same amount as they usually do.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2016 10:13:48 GMT -5
I think it's more to do with WPA being trendy and people trying to outsmart themselves. One of the problems with MVP/Cy Young voting in recent years is that people have figured out pretty well how to quantify value and it makes it boring to some people. You can't realistically argue that Mike Trout isn't the most valuable player in baseball, so someone who is paid to write stuff finds some stat - sometimes even a useful stat when used for its purpose! - that says HEY WAIT MAYBE IT'S SOMEONE ELSE.
Britton's having an awesome year though. I really wonder if he'd turned it around if they'd let him be as a starter. His ground ball rates are so extreme that my gut feeling is that he would have, but that's more my opinion than something I've done a lot of research or digging on.
I'd vote Hamels for Cy Young for entirely selfish reasons. Remember all that talk about how the Red Sox shouldn't trade Vazquez for him because Vazquez was the one with excess value? Because Vazquez 60 games of pitch framing were predictive, but Hamels 1500 innings of outperforming his FIP were not? Oh well. Anyway what I'm trying to say is that voting for Hamels is a vote for me being right, and given the opportunity I'm always going to vote for me being right.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 23, 2016 10:25:58 GMT -5
Yeah the whole WPA argument is kind of ridiculous when the closer roll is essentially designed to maximize WPA. It's like if you had a pinch hitter who only came in with the bases loaded and got excited by his RBIs per PA or something.
Not sure if I'd vote for Hamels right now but he's right there and could be an obvious choice if he finishes strong. And look, any time you want to invest a lot of talent and money in an older starting pitcher, that's a scary proposition and I can see why people would be against it, but yeah, the Hamels deal looks very good for Texas right now.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 23, 2016 10:45:55 GMT -5
Yeah the whole WPA argument is kind of ridiculous when the closer roll is essentially designed to maximize WPA. It's like if you had a pinch hitter who only came in with the bases loaded and got excited by his RBIs per PA or something. Not sure if I'd vote for Hamels right now but he's right there and could be an obvious choice if he finishes strong. And look, any time you want to invest a lot of talent and money in an older starting pitcher, that's a scary proposition and I can see why people would be against it, but yeah, the Hamels deal looks very good for Texas right now. Yep I agree with all of this. I remember reading a thing after Pujols three home run game in the 2011 World Series arguing that it was only like the 236th best performance in WS history by WPA. Which... so what? If he'd struck out instead of homering the first two times, then homered the third when the game was closer because he'd not blown the game open single-handedly, then his WPA would have been higher. WPA is a really, really interesting stat to get down into the details of pitcher leverage and general strategy, but it's just not a measure of value. All of the reasons other than "he's going to regress to his FIP" were legitimate reasons to be wary of a Hamels trade.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 24, 2016 6:51:32 GMT -5
Ivan Nova's 9IP 1ER 1BB 6H 6K last night allows his SSS line to include a 2.87 FIP and 18 K/BB with the Pirates.
And in other news the Yankees have decided to put in place a permanent trade embargo against the Pirates and their voodoo magic with Yankee castaways.
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Post by theolearyfactor on Aug 24, 2016 8:20:14 GMT -5
Ivan Nova's 9IP 1ER 1BB 6H 6K last night allows his SSS line to include a 2.87 FIP and 18 K/BB with the Pirates. And in other news the Yankees have decided to put in place a permanent trade embargo against the Pirates and their voodoo magic with Yankee castaways. Someone in this thread definitely called this (even before the trade happened?).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2016 11:34:41 GMT -5
A 3 team trade of Jeff Francoeur to the Marlins. Seems almost as useless of a waste of time as my posting about it.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 25, 2016 11:44:22 GMT -5
Since the start of 2012, Jeff Francoeur has a -4.8 bWAR. It seems impossible that someone could be that bad for that long and continue to get a spot in the league. When I look around at decent Quad-A guys like Chris Marrero and Ryan Lamarre, and I see a team went and got Francoeur on purpose? Fun fact! There are five players with a higher bWAR this season than Francoeur has for his career which now has totaled 5,606 plate appearances.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
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Post by nomar on Aug 25, 2016 12:00:23 GMT -5
Orioles have to lose with Ubaldo going tonight. The universe demands it.
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Post by DesignatedKyle on Aug 27, 2016 13:41:20 GMT -5
So about this Gary Sanchez kid...
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 27, 2016 15:33:43 GMT -5
Watching the Yankees Orioles game. Are the Yankees this good or are the Orioles this bad?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 27, 2016 21:36:48 GMT -5
So about this Gary Sanchez kid... Really would have been nice if the Yankees rebuilding process had lasted more than three weeks.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 27, 2016 21:54:53 GMT -5
So about this Gary Sanchez kid... Really would have been nice if the Yankees rebuilding process had lasted more than three weeks. It actually took Cashman many months to convince the lesser Steinbreners to push the geritol set off to the shuffleboard court. We should include that pause in the action as part of that rebuild. Sanchez is out of his mind and that won't last, but there's definitely more energy out there. That had to be a hell of an undertaking if they're half as bullheaded as their dad was.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 27, 2016 22:02:37 GMT -5
So about this Gary Sanchez kid... Really would have been nice if the Yankees rebuilding process had lasted more than three weeks. So, they traded away two elite relievers and they haven't missed a beat. Who would've thunk it. Oh, that's right. Only those here who knew that already.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2016 8:05:00 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 28, 2016 8:21:07 GMT -5
Really would have been nice if the Yankees rebuilding process had lasted more than three weeks. So, they traded away two elite relievers and they haven't missed a beat. Who would've thunk it. Oh, that's right. Only those here who knew that already. The Yankees are playing without any modicum of pressure and Gary Sanchez is doing at least his best Kevin Maas impersonation. It's not because the 2016 team if it were in serious contention doesn't need Chapman or Miller. If the games get tight to the point that they really mean making the playoffs or not making them, they'll wish for those games that they had Chapman and Miller, as not all relievers are as interchangeable as you make them sound and the two relievers on the roster who replaced them are nowhere near as good or dominant and if you've been watching the Red Sox blow games with their bullpen lately, you'd understand the difference. Or else perhaps the Sox should shove Tazawa into Kimbrel's role and see if it really matters. Right now the Yankees are playing as a team with absolutely nothing left to lose. That said, the Yankees took full advantage of the premium trade value on relievers and made fantastic deals for the future, deals that any of us, myself included, in here would make at any time given their circumstances. But I'm not going to pretend that losing Miller and Chapman (or even Beltran) has zero impact on the 2016 Yankees the way you make it sound.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 28, 2016 9:21:38 GMT -5
So, they traded away two elite relievers and they haven't missed a beat. Who would've thunk it. Oh, that's right. Only those here who knew that already. The Yankees are playing without any modicum of pressure and Gary Sanchez is doing at least his best Kevin Maas impersonation. It's not because the 2016 team if it were in serious contention doesn't need Chapman or Miller. If the games get tight to the point that they really mean making the playoffs or not making them, they'll wish for those games that they had Chapman and Miller, as not all relievers are as interchangeable as you make them sound and the two relievers on the roster who replaced them are nowhere near as good or dominant and if you've been watching the Red Sox blow games with their bullpen lately, you'd understand the difference. Or else perhaps the Sox should shove Tazawa into Kimbrel's role and see if it really matters. Right now the Yankees are playing as a team with absolutely nothing left to lose. That said, the Yankees took full advantage of the premium trade value on relievers and made fantastic deals for the future, deals that any of us, myself included, in here would make at any time given their circumstances. But I'm not going to pretend that losing Miller and Chapman (or even Beltran) has zero impact on the 2016 Yankees the way you make it sound. I didn't mean to say that Miller and Chapman had zero impact, just that their impact is overblown. In fact, there was a game they blew to the BJs that they probably would've won with those two. But they've won many more simply because they had a better offense. With an elite bullpen, the Yanks were a .500 team. With an above average offense minus the elite bullpen they're a slightly above average team (I think they'll come down to earth a bit, but they'll end up about five games above .500)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 28, 2016 10:39:47 GMT -5
The Yankees are playing without any modicum of pressure and Gary Sanchez is doing at least his best Kevin Maas impersonation. It's not because the 2016 team if it were in serious contention doesn't need Chapman or Miller. If the games get tight to the point that they really mean making the playoffs or not making them, they'll wish for those games that they had Chapman and Miller, as not all relievers are as interchangeable as you make them sound and the two relievers on the roster who replaced them are nowhere near as good or dominant and if you've been watching the Red Sox blow games with their bullpen lately, you'd understand the difference. Or else perhaps the Sox should shove Tazawa into Kimbrel's role and see if it really matters. Right now the Yankees are playing as a team with absolutely nothing left to lose. That said, the Yankees took full advantage of the premium trade value on relievers and made fantastic deals for the future, deals that any of us, myself included, in here would make at any time given their circumstances. But I'm not going to pretend that losing Miller and Chapman (or even Beltran) has zero impact on the 2016 Yankees the way you make it sound. I didn't mean to say that Miller and Chapman had zero impact, just that their impact is overblown. In fact, there was a game they blew to the BJs that they probably would've won with those two. But they've won many more simply because they had a better offense. With an elite bullpen, the Yanks were a .500 team. With an above average offense minus the elite bullpen they're a slightly above average team (I think they'll come down to earth a bit, but they'll end up about five games above .500) The larger point I was trying to make is that there seems to be this school of thought that you simply find the next Andrew Miller and that relievers are so unpredictable that they are practically all interchangeable. This is against another school of thought that relief pitching is so vital that it does make a major difference in who pitches whatever inning and that for a sense of reliability based on track record it's important to make moves to get that perceived advantage. I think the case for these two schools of thought are sometimes stated too simplistically. I think the truth lies in the middle of these two thoughts. There is a big value in dominant relief pitching, what Kimbrel was supposed to represent based on a long established track record (similar to David Price in a way), what Andrew Miller now represents.
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Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2016 9:21:20 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2016 8:18:13 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 3, 2016 14:39:32 GMT -5
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 3, 2016 14:59:35 GMT -5
Someone needs to be fired over this, I'm not even kidding.
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