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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 10:04:36 GMT -5
I don't understand what they're doing. So Castillo is on this team . . . why? Neither Shaw nor Sandoval are middle infielders (hell, they're not even really 3B). Unless there's another shoe to drop
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2016 10:06:30 GMT -5
There's no rational analysis that James Shields, a 3 WAR pitcher, is better than Joe Kelly or Henry Owens. Right. I WAS AS CAREFUL AS I COULD POSSIBLY BE TO NOT MAKE ANY SUCH ASSERTION.Any true statement can be turned into a ridiculous one by removing all of the critical qualifying phrases. "There's no rational analysis where a wealthy businessman with narcissistic personality disorder would make a good president who could be trusted to protect civil liberties." "No wealthy businessman could be a good president. Right." That's pretty much precisely the quality of response you just gave. Shields pitching half his games in Fenway is not the same as Shields in the abstract. (Just think Bill Mueller in reverse.) Even worse, the difference between the best outcome from among five candidates and an unspecified combination of two outcomes is enormous. You have a 56% chance that one of the five pitchers will pitch at his 85th percentile projection. I'm willing to take the fractional hit in WAR as we figure out which one of the five guys is the best in return for not paying Shields' salary and suffering a likely downgrade to boot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 29, 2016 10:09:26 GMT -5
Posted this in the Spring Training Game Day Thread. Meant to post it here - This makes good sense in the short-term, as they're trying to get off to the crucial good start. If it lasts past that time period, it's a huge blunder. The upgrade of Holt over Castillo vs. RHP, which is probably on the order of 1 win over the whole season, is not worth destroying Castillo's chance to demonstrate that he's the better option, or become it.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 29, 2016 10:10:30 GMT -5
I don't understand what they're doing. So Castillo is on this team . . . why? Neither Shaw nor Sandoval are middle infielders (hell, they're not even really 3B). Unless there's another shoe to drop Castillo has options. They don't need to do anything drastic. Just send him to AAA with the expectation that he earn some playing time. Demonstrating some ability to run the bases, and to put balls in play that aren't pulled grounders would be a start.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 29, 2016 10:17:19 GMT -5
Who is this guy and what has he done with John Farrell?
On a serious note, who is the backup infielder now?
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Post by notguilty on Mar 29, 2016 10:21:08 GMT -5
OMG..The Red Sox are planning to play the players that give them the best chance to win at a given point in time! No "we know he's terrible, but his track record is great", "he's a veteran", "he's got a big contract so you've got to play him", etc. Somewhat reasonable excuses that meant you kept the better players on the bench or in the minors. I think that kind of complacency has really killed this team over the past two years.
Now, maybe you trade a Panda or a Castillo and they go on to flourish elsewhere. But if that's the price to pay to get rid of complacency, I'll take it.
Man, managing for your job is quite something.
John Farrell feeling like the rest of us, actually having to perform to keep our jobs. Welcome to our world, John.
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 29, 2016 10:22:09 GMT -5
Who is this guy and what has he done with John Farrell? On a serious note, who is the backup infielder now? Yeah, this is the bigger issue with Holt being the strong side of the platoon in LF. We need a guy to play SS or 2B in a pinch. I vote Hanley.
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Post by mgoetze on Mar 29, 2016 10:26:04 GMT -5
On a serious note, who is the backup infielder now? The backup infielder is "Sub in a new LF off the bench and Brockstar takes the infield spot that's vacant."
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 10:28:01 GMT -5
I've heard nothing from the Red Sox themselves suggesting that they're going to send Castillo down. And if you send him down, who do you replace him with? I guess Marrero could handle the defensive side, but he's a blackhole offensively. This sure sounds like poor roster construction; again, unless something's coming soon
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 10:28:56 GMT -5
On a serious note, who is the backup infielder now? The backup infielder is "Sub in a new LF off the bench and Brockstar takes the infield spot that's vacant." But then you're weakening yourself at two positions
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Post by mandelbro on Mar 29, 2016 10:34:22 GMT -5
I've heard nothing from the Red Sox themselves suggesting that they're going to send Castillo down. And if you send him down, who do you replace him with? I guess Marrero could handle the defensive side, but he's a blackhole offensively. This sure sounds like poor roster construction; again, unless something's coming soon And Marrero is a black hole offensively.... like Castillo. Like I said before, this is why I didn't understand the choice of Chris Young. Carrying two outfielders who don't play against RHP, just in different flavors (one with proportionally more bat and less glove than the other) is redundant. They should have sought a LHH to play in the outfield with Castillo. As for fixing it... we'll see what happens. Long-term, Benintendi going gangbusters would be a neat solution.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 10:42:45 GMT -5
Well at least there's this: Farrell: "If Young & Castillo are on field at same time, Castillo probably in CF"
That's progress I guess
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Post by bookiemetts on Mar 29, 2016 10:43:40 GMT -5
This is starting to get very interesting lol. There's a fangraphs article talking about this and Dave Cameron thinks the most logical places for Rusney are the Padres, Brewers and Phillies.
One other crazy thing: does anyone think Castillo can still play the infield?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 29, 2016 10:45:53 GMT -5
If Castillo is going to have value it's going to be through his glove. Moving him to the infield makes no sense to me.
Castillo will get his chances to earn more time regardless of what Farrell has said today. It's up to him to play great defense and try to rework his mechanics a bit at the plate.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 10:51:44 GMT -5
Re Benintendi: I was thinking about this. assume that through April, you've got whoever is in LF and JBJ struggling (certainly possible, if not probable) and Benintendi pulls a Mookie in 2014 at Portland (yes, AB would be doing it at Salem, and not that probable as Mookie was Ricky Henderson in April 2014).
Would you consider bringing Benintendi up to platoon with Young? I'd be awfully tempted
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Mar 29, 2016 11:00:21 GMT -5
I won't! If he's with the big club, he needs to play all the time! If he's that good to force their hand, why would you mess with his development?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 29, 2016 11:05:56 GMT -5
I won't! If he's with the big club, he needs to play all the time! If he's that good to force their hand, why would you mess with his development? This. He needs consistent time and if you rush him at all there's too high of a chance that the marginal upgrade from "X" to Benintendi isn't worth risking stunting any development.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 11:09:05 GMT -5
well, the LH side of a platoon + spelling for days off/injuries = 75% of playing time
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Post by mgoetze on Mar 29, 2016 11:20:54 GMT -5
well, the LH side of a platoon + spelling for days off/injuries = 75% of playing time Every once in a while, I go to Rusney's FG Player Page to reassure myself that yes, he is indeed a RHH. Listening to Farrell and some people on this board, you'd never know it.
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Post by jdb on Mar 29, 2016 11:28:20 GMT -5
I feel like there's going to be a roster shake up. It started last week saying high priced guys aren't going to start unless they earn it, SD scouting Panda and our utility IF is now going to get the majority of ABs in LF.
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Post by jrffam05 on Mar 29, 2016 11:37:02 GMT -5
Sandoval and Castillo for Logan Allen straight up Fixed that for myself.
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 11:37:05 GMT -5
well, the LH side of a platoon + spelling for days off/injuries = 75% of playing time Every once in a while, I go to Rusney's FG Player Page to reassure myself that yes, he is indeed a RHH. Listening to Farrell and some people on this board, you'd never know it. and not just any RHH; one with a 69+/112+ career split (Young is 83+/122+)
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Post by jmei on Mar 29, 2016 11:45:22 GMT -5
Every once in a while, I go to Rusney's FG Player Page to reassure myself that yes, he is indeed a RHH. Listening to Farrell and some people on this board, you'd never know it. and not just any RHH; one with a 69+/112+ career split (Young is 83+/122+) Castillo's split is in all of 329 total MLB PAs, which is a really small sample to be making significant conclusions based on observed platoon splits. In an additional 172 minor league PAs, he had a much smaller platoon split (.722 wOBA versus L, .656 wOBA versus R).
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Post by thursty on Mar 29, 2016 11:58:53 GMT -5
Oh and I'm sure that you've done the necessary analysis to determine when splits stabilize, right? Sometimes I really wish SSS issue (and it is an issue) hadn't made itself known to the statistically illiterate. Let's say that the #s stabilize after 800 PAs. That *does not mean* you can ignore the first 799 PAs, however facile that might be.
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Post by jmei on Mar 29, 2016 12:03:32 GMT -5
Oh and I'm sure that you've done the necessary analysis to determine when splits stabilize, right? Sometimes I really wish SSS issue (and it is an issue) hadn't made itself known to the statistically illiterate. Let's say that the #s stabilize after 800 PAs. That *does not mean* you can ignore the first 799 PAs, however facile that might be. I'm not saying you ignore his play to date. I'm saying that you cannot conclude that he's strictly a platoon player based on his play to date.
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