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2016 Red Sox Spring Training News/Discussion
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 22, 2016 11:53:04 GMT -5
It's easy to figure out how well JBJ has to hit lefties to be as good a CF as Young.
Young has a career 122 wRC+ against LHP and a 123 his last 3 years, weighted 3-4-5, so that's not in doubt.
That's 15.8 runs above average per 600 PA, and 600 PA happens to be what you'd project over 150 games from a guy hitting 8th for a team with a great offense. If we're really talking about 590 PA, that error will be swamped by our errors of defensive estimates, so we're good.
JBJ has been +13 in CF per 150 games. You get +10 if you throw in his RF and LF adjusted, but no one thinks that's relevant.
Young has been -22 in CF but just -11 if you throw in RF and LF adjusted, and some of that may be real. Call it -17 plus or minus 5.
So the defensive difference is 30 runs, give or take 5.
So if JBJ is -14 runs on offense, give or take 5, it's a wash.
-14 runs on offense is an 81 wRC+. -9 runs is 87 or 88.
Bradley is a career 92 L, 65 R, overall 74, which gives him a -14% career split in 260 PA (you have to convert the wRC+ to wOBA). Add 1000 PA at the league average of 10% (2006-12), and you get 5% true estimate. He was bigger than that in the minors, maybe, but his 2015 approach seems to have minimized that, so let's run with this.
Steamer projects him for a 97 wRC+, but the FG fans, who know to discount 2014, have him at 111. But even if you take the Steamer, he has a 90 wRC+ versus LHP. Even with a league-average split, it's 84.
So, to justify this, you need to use the best credible take on Young's CF defense, which yields an 87 or 88 rather than 81 as what JBJ needs to hit, and and the worst possible take on JBJ's LHP offense, where his reverse split is a complete mirage and 2014 matters in his projection, yielding an 84 as what he puts up. It's a complete stretch. Just split the difference between this extreme case and our best guess about Young's defense and JBJ's platoon split, while keeping the ugly Steamer projection, and you get 84 as what JBJ needs to hit to justify a platoon, and 87 as what he puts up. In an average park against an average LHP, it's an overall downgrade to play Young in CF versus LHP.
I'll run the numbers for Young in an OF corner next, but the starting point is that it seems to save you 7 runs on defense, which is about 10 points of wRC+. That makes it a wash with the Steamer projection, but not with the more realistic fan one.
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Post by mandelbro on Feb 22, 2016 12:17:02 GMT -5
It makes me question the need for signing Young; I know he's great depth in case of injury to JBJ or Betts and he probably can easily match what we would like to see out of Castillo if he isn't cutting it, but how much value does he have without one of those things happening?You have to significantly downgrade the defense for him to play over JBJ, who doesn't have really any platoon split and the one guy who deserves to be platooned (Castillo) also bats RH. I'd file it under #SpringTrainingProblems personally. If none of those things happens? Then we have a fantastic outfield and we're winning baseball games. One of those things will most likely happen. Castillo struggled a lot last year. Jackie is a total wild card at the plate. IMO Young's addition is more about minimizing risk and downside than improving the best-case scenario. I can get behind that seeing how the OF turned out the last two years.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 22, 2016 12:23:00 GMT -5
It makes me question the need for signing Young; I know he's great depth in case of injury to JBJ or Betts and he probably can easily match what we would like to see out of Castillo if he isn't cutting it, but how much value does he have without one of those things happening?You have to significantly downgrade the defense for him to play over JBJ, who doesn't have really any platoon split and the one guy who deserves to be platooned (Castillo) also bats RH. I'd file it under #SpringTrainingProblems personally. If none of those things happens? Then we have a fantastic outfield and we're winning baseball games. One of those things will most likely happen. Castillo struggled a lot last year. Jackie is a total wild card at the plate. IMO Young's addition is more about minimizing risk and downside than improving the best-case scenario. I can get behind that seeing how the OF turned out the last two years. The problem is in how much time it takes to figure out and I fully expect for it to extend well into the regular season. Farrell doesn't make me confident that it will be quickly. But he already seems to be leaning towards Young over JBJ, Shaw in LF (even vs. RHP if I had to guess) or Holt anywhere in OF. I'm also expecting way too long leashes for Hanley and Pablo because Farrell has his favorites and is stubborn to recognize when they're not working out. It's clear that Farrell has labeled Young as someone who is very important to get regular reps, unlike everyone else who he'll be taking time from. He has already committed to playing him vs. RHP. Reminds me of Gomes already.
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Post by larrycook on Feb 22, 2016 14:10:19 GMT -5
It makes me question the need for signing Young; I know he's great depth in case of injury to JBJ or Betts and he probably can easily match what we would like to see out of Castillo if he isn't cutting it, but how much value does he have without one of those things happening?You have to significantly downgrade the defense for him to play over JBJ, who doesn't have really any platoon split and the one guy who deserves to be platooned (Castillo) also bats RH. I'd file it under #SpringTrainingProblems personally. If none of those things happens? Then we have a fantastic outfield and we're winning baseball games. One of those things will most likely happen. Castillo struggled a lot last year. Jackie is a total wild card at the plate. IMO Young's addition is more about minimizing risk and downside than improving the best-case scenario. I can get behind that seeing how the OF turned out the last two years. I agree. We have no idea what we have with Castillo, still. He seems too tightly built and it looks like he strains a muscle every time he climbs the dugout stairs.
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Post by templeusox on Feb 22, 2016 23:53:03 GMT -5
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Post by dirtywater43 on Feb 23, 2016 6:53:33 GMT -5
The most important in 40 years? I don't think that's the case at all. Nomar, Pedro, Ortiz, Boggs, Clemens, Pedrioa, Lester, Betts, and Xander, is he more important than all of them? I don't think he's even close. In fact, I wouldn't even call him the most important prospect in this minor league system. I would call Espinoza way more important. Does Benintendi not being at major league camp decrease his chances of making the major league roster this year? That's what I wonder, I'm not sure. Maybe that's a good thing too though.
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Post by notguilty on Feb 23, 2016 8:15:53 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Feb 23, 2016 9:09:59 GMT -5
You must be new-- just temple being temple.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Feb 23, 2016 12:20:29 GMT -5
Damn Farrell is such a downer. Only good news is if he just keeps penciling in players based on their service time and we win 80 games or less again they will just can him and we can move on.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 23, 2016 12:23:20 GMT -5
Damn Farrell is such a downer. Only good news is if he just keeps penciling in players based on their service time and we win 80 games or less again they will just can him and we can move on. I hope it happens quickly. Lovullo is much better and he's there waiting for the job.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Feb 23, 2016 12:34:44 GMT -5
He's probably exaggerating a little bit (or maybe a lot) in his post above, but temple's been consistently touting the Nintendo man as the top Red Sox prospect in his posts. I would like to see Benintendi playing full time in Portland to start the year and then let's see how things progress. There is no reason to send him back to Greenville.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Feb 23, 2016 12:39:55 GMT -5
He's probably exaggerating a little bit (or maybe a lot) in his post above, but temple's been consistently touting the Nintendo man as the top Red Sox prospect in his posts. I would like to see Benintendi playing full time in Portland to start the year and then let's see how things progress. There is no reason to send him back to Greenville. It's either Salem or Portland but it's safe to bet that he won't be playing in GVL again.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Feb 23, 2016 19:47:05 GMT -5
Gammons latest drops that Dombrowski offered Darren O'Day his biggest offer of the offseason, but that it was conditional on the Kimbrel deal.
edit: also, he mentions that Allen Craig has a new approach, and looks "exceptional"
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Post by templeusox on Feb 23, 2016 21:38:55 GMT -5
edit: also, he mentions that Allen Craig has a new approach, and looks "exceptional" Man I love Spring Training.
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Post by beany24 on Feb 23, 2016 21:58:29 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me when the ML ST camp starts? What their report date is?
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 24, 2016 9:44:31 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo
Ruben Amaro:"Now I know my scouts did a great job and we asked for the right players for Hamels(Swihart, Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts)."
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Post by soxfanatic on Feb 24, 2016 13:03:26 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Feb 24, 2016 13:14:44 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Feb 24, 2016 13:38:51 GMT -5
I tried to segregate all the Pablo/Hanley posts and move them to their own thread. Let's try to keep any posts on those guys to that thread. Thanks.
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Post by soxcentral on Feb 24, 2016 14:29:56 GMT -5
I tried to segregate all the Pablo/Hanley posts and move them to their own thread. Let's try to keep any posts on those guys to that thread. Thanks. Wait, there are other players in camp too?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 24, 2016 14:41:03 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me when the ML ST camp starts? What their report date is? I know players invited to the minicamp report today. Usually mid-March for everyone else. FWIW,the SP.com contingent reports 3/16-20.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Feb 24, 2016 19:13:11 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me when the ML ST camp starts? What their report date is? I know players invited to the minicamp report today. Usually mid-March for everyone else. FWIW,the SP.com contingent reports 3/16-20. Are you all in shape? Are your gloves broken in?Edit: Typo
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Post by sox fan in nc on Feb 25, 2016 10:15:36 GMT -5
Damn Farrell is such a downer. Only good news is if he just keeps penciling in players based on their service time and we win 80 games or less again they will just can him and we can move on. I hope it happens quickly. Lovullo is much better and he's there waiting for the job. I'm curious how much pull DD or Hazen has in the decision making for who plays, who starts, ect.....or is it like "Moneyball" where the manager just tells them it's his decision, end of story. I would imagine as a long time baseball man, DD can't just sit back & let Farrell run his team into the ground & do nothing about it.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 25, 2016 11:44:49 GMT -5
Probably just a simple math error, or maybe temple forgot Ted Williams retired over 50 years ago, not 40.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Feb 27, 2016 9:47:43 GMT -5
It's way too early to get either optimistic or pessimistic about Hanley at first, but this was at least a little encouraging to me: I saw another report that he fired a ball into the dugout after another error ... it'll have some rough patches, but I feel like as long as he gets pissed off and annoyed at his miscues, maybe he'll be ok by Opening Day. We'll see. He's got the hands for it.
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