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Post by ethanbein on Mar 1, 2016 12:00:08 GMT -5
Rijo is going to surprise a lot of people this year. I think I'm about to start up the Rijo bandwagon, if anyone wants to hop on now. He's criminally underrated, imo. EDIT: Realized that 13th-best 2B prospect in baseball is far from 'criminally' underrating a guy. I just think people sleep on him. Maybe Dubon has a better shot at being an MLB player because he has the better utility profile, but I think Rijo's ceiling is much higher. I think people forget he's basically as age-advanced as Devers and has been an above-average hitter at a minimum at every level, while being at least a capable second baseman. I know he's got a funky swing, but I like him a lot as a sleeper.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 1, 2016 12:12:02 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 1, 2016 12:43:40 GMT -5
The top 17 SS made the top 100. This list suggests Marrero was just outside their top 100. That's... strange.
I get that there's something to proximity, but it's not like he's got a starter floor.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 1, 2016 14:08:06 GMT -5
The top 17 SS made the top 100. This list suggests Marrero was just outside their top 100. That's... strange. I get that there's something to proximity, but it's not like he's got a starter floor. They seem pretty enamored of his defense, though. I suppose in today's offensive environment they see him as a pretty likely second-division starter. Even if he's a .230/.290/.320 or so hitter, he's still probably an above-replacement level player, and would probably start right now for 3-4 teams. If he's a .260/.320/.380 hitter, he's a well-above-average SS provided his defense continues to be plus-or-better. Hey, hopefully he hits at Pawtucket and somebody needs a SS in June.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 1, 2016 15:31:07 GMT -5
The top 17 SS made the top 100. This list suggests Marrero was just outside their top 100. That's... strange. I get that there's something to proximity, but it's not like he's got a starter floor. They seem pretty enamored of his defense, though. I suppose in today's offensive environment they see him as a pretty likely second-division starter. Even if he's a .230/.290/.320 or so hitter, he's still probably an above-replacement level player, and would probably start right now for 3-4 teams. If he's a .260/.320/.380 hitter, he's a well-above-average SS provided his defense continues to be plus-or-better. Hey, hopefully he hits at Pawtucket and somebody needs a SS in June. All of his offensive projections peg him in the 68 to 71 wRC+, as far as I can tell, and when you add his defense, he's definitely one of the top 30 SS in baseball. He's basically last year's Jordy Mercer with better defense, and Mercer ranked 24th last year in fWAR/600 PA. The thing is, like in certain scenes in Being John Malkovich, there's almost no distance between his ceiling and his floor. Nobody feels they need the 23rd or 26th best SS in baseball until they realize the guy they have is worse, and that they need an upgrade to contend. Now, if he makes progress with the bat, he can become more of a trade chip. I'd like to see him as a piece of some significance in the inevitable big deal(s) of next winter. But there's a decent chance that even the 0.8 - 0.9 WAR version is a significant upgrade to a contender at the deadline -- since Mercer is still the Bucs' starting SS.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 2, 2016 12:12:33 GMT -5
Yeah, I guess you guys are right.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 2, 2016 12:39:44 GMT -5
I think Marrero should stick around as Xander insurance instead of trading him before his options are up. If Xander is out for a month or two, I wouldn't want anyone else in the organization playing SS every day. And it's really difficult to trade for one with options.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 2, 2016 12:57:23 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 3, 2016 11:02:48 GMT -5
If Chavis rights his ship, he moves way up, and if Devers continues to develop his hit tool and power, he will have what put Gallo at #1. So, including the possiility of Moncada moving to 3B, that particular revolving door can stop chasing its tail. With most positions covered by top talent for a decade, this developing Sox team could contend for a decade, late-90's NYFY style, but moreso.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 3, 2016 12:18:41 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on Mar 3, 2016 13:56:59 GMT -5
That's a big gap between Benintendi and Margot. They are basically the same age, and the former played at a lower level last year. While Benny's numbers were better, Margot was no slouch, and very age advanced.
I'm assuming/hoping there is some scouting reason for this, and not just the shiny new toy with stud results look.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 4, 2016 10:26:25 GMT -5
I was curious: how many teams have had 4 top 20 BA prospects? The Sox turn out to be the sixth. Our quartet is far and away the youngest.
1992 Braves: 4 Chipper Jones, 8 Ryan Klesko, 13 Mark Wohlers, 19 Mike Kelly. 21.6 average age. 1993 Expos: 3 Cliff Floyd, 6 Wil Cordero, 15 Rondell White, 17 Tavo Alvarez. 21.4 if you trust Cordero's age, but I'm convinced he was 2 years older, so it's 21.10. 2008 Rays: 2 Evan Longoria, 10 David Price, 15 Jake McGee, 17 Wade Davis. 22.7. 2011 Royals: 8 Eric Hosmer, 9 Mike Moustakas, 10 Wil Myers, 18 John Lamb. 21.6. 2015 Cubs: 1 Kris Bryant, 3 Addison Russell, 12 Jorge Soler, 19 Kyle Schwarber. 22.8, but also the best set of rankings. 2016 Red Sox: 3 Yoan Moncada, 15 Andrew Benintendi, 18 Rafael Devers, 19 Anderson Espinoza. 20.3, but the least impressive set of rankings.
Of all of these 25 players, Moncada is 8th youngest, Devers the only guy to make the top 20 from his age 18 season, and Espinoza the only guy to do so from his age 17.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 4, 2016 19:58:55 GMT -5
I was curious: how many teams have had 4 top 20 BA prospects? The Sox turn out to be the sixth. Our quartet is far and away the youngest. 1992 Braves: 4 Chipper Jones, 8 Ryan Klesko, 13 Mark Wohlers, 19 Mike Kelly. 21.6 average age. 1993 Expos: 3 Cliff Floyd, 6 Wil Cordero, 15 Rondell White, 17 Tavo Alvarez. 21.4 if you trust Cordero's age, but I'm convinced he was 2 years older, so it's 21.10. 2008 Rays: 2 Evan Longoria, 10 David Price, 15 Jake McGee, 17 Wade Davis. 22.7. 2011 Royals: 8 Eric Hosmer, 9 Mike Moustakas, 10 Wil Myers, 18 John Lamb. 21.6. 2015 Cubs: 1 Kris Bryant, 3 Addison Russell, 12 Jorge Soler, 19 Kyle Schwarber. 22.8, but also the best set of rankings. 2016 Red Sox: 3 Yoan Moncada, 15 Andrew Benintendi, 18 Rafael Devers, 19 Anderson Espinoza. 20.3, but the least impressive set of rankings. Of all of these 25 players, Moncada is 8th youngest, Devers the only guy to make the top 20 from his age 18 season, and Espinoza the only guy to do so from his age 17. Important to note that it's not like every single one of these guys panned out either, for everyone getting set to pencil in all four Sox guys into a future lineup. I've never even heard of Kelly or Alvarez. While McGee and Davis became a good and a great late-inning arm, that's not what you're hoping for from a top 20 guy probably. And Lamb doesn't look like he's that special. We'll see what happens with the Cubs and Sox guys.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 4, 2016 20:36:36 GMT -5
And a year from now they will STILL be the youngest group by.1 year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 4, 2016 23:17:12 GMT -5
I was curious: how many teams have had 4 top 20 BA prospects? The Sox turn out to be the sixth. Our quartet is far and away the youngest. 1992 Braves: 4 Chipper Jones, 8 Ryan Klesko, 13 Mark Wohlers, 19 Mike Kelly. 21.6 average age. 1993 Expos: 3 Cliff Floyd, 6 Wil Cordero, 15 Rondell White, 17 Tavo Alvarez. 21.4 if you trust Cordero's age, but I'm convinced he was 2 years older, so it's 21.10. 2008 Rays: 2 Evan Longoria, 10 David Price, 15 Jake McGee, 17 Wade Davis. 22.7. 2011 Royals: 8 Eric Hosmer, 9 Mike Moustakas, 10 Wil Myers, 18 John Lamb. 21.6. 2015 Cubs: 1 Kris Bryant, 3 Addison Russell, 12 Jorge Soler, 19 Kyle Schwarber. 22.8, but also the best set of rankings. 2016 Red Sox: 3 Yoan Moncada, 15 Andrew Benintendi, 18 Rafael Devers, 19 Anderson Espinoza. 20.3, but the least impressive set of rankings. Of all of these 25 players, Moncada is 8th youngest, Devers the only guy to make the top 20 from his age 18 season, and Espinoza the only guy to do so from his age 17. Important to note that it's not like every single one of these guys panned out either, for everyone getting set to pencil in all four Sox guys into a future lineup. I've never even heard of Kelly or Alvarez. While McGee and Davis became a good and a great late-inning arm, that's not what you're hoping for from a top 20 guy probably. And Lamb doesn't look like he's that special. We'll see what happens with the Cubs and Sox guys. Mike Kelly was the 2nd overall pick in the '91 draft out of ASU and had a good 35 games in high-A at age 21. I'd have to dig into my BA back issues to find a scouting report. He moved up the ladder with OK numbers and was still the #58 prospect two years later after his first AAA season. The Braves in those days had McGriff at 1B, Klesko in LF, and Justice in RF, so he was very much blocked. Edit: IIRC, he had a very strong second half that year, and I recall thinking it was criminal that he was sent back to AAA when he had nothing left to prove, and although his numbers were a bit better than his overall numbers the year before, it seemed like regression. IIRC again, he was vocally not happy about it. (I left that whole narrative out originally because the stats didn't back it up, until I remembered {or invented!} the strong second half bit.) He ended up with the Reds in '97 and on August 8 was hitting .294 / .342 / .549 in 111 PA, having worked his way into a crowded corner OF mix. Naturally, he got 40 PA in the last 49 games and hit .289 / .325 / .526. Total Zone says he was a good defender in a corner. The expansion Devil Rays targeted him in a trade, gave him regular PT, and he had an 808 OPS in mid-May. He then hit hit .224 / .280/ .373 in 219 PA the rest of the way and that was basically it for his MLB career. Hard to say what happened, and whether those very solid 235 PA at ages 27 and 28 were his true talent emerging briefly or just a fluke. He had a couple of very good years in the PCL afterwards but never got another chance.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 4, 2016 23:39:29 GMT -5
I remembered Kelly as a prospect, but not Tavo Alvarez. I don't think he would have been ranked that high today.
He was a second round pick out of HS and in his second year at age 20 he went 17-5, 1.84 across high-A and a bit in AA. But in high-A he dominated by walking 45% less than league average and giving up 0 HR in 332 times made contact, while fanning 11% fewer than league average. You can guess that he had a great sinker but couldn't miss bats. After going 52, 153, 186 innings, he was hit hard the next year and appeared to miss the last third of the season, fell off the top 100, and missed all of 1994 and what looks like half of '95. His '95 ml starts went well, he got called up and got hammered in 8 starts and was never even a mediocre AAA guy after that. Way too common a story back then.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 5, 2016 3:03:54 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Mar 5, 2016 14:10:17 GMT -5
I think Marrero should stick around as Xander insurance instead of trading him before his options are up. If Xander is out for a month or two, I wouldn't want anyone else in the organization playing SS every day. And it's really difficult to trade for one with options. I kinda think the same way, because Holt and Hanley aren't very good options. But they do have Marco Hernandez, who's solid defensively, and Mauricio Dubon, who's certainly a capable SS but got moved because of Guerra. I'm liking Dubon more and more, I hope they move him back to SS now that Guerra is gone. He's only 21, hit .288 with a little pop and some discipline (plus 30 swipes), and has the arm and range for SS. If he keeps developing like he has, but as a SS, that's a pretty nice player right there.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 5, 2016 14:11:38 GMT -5
Yeah, they're all about signing CFs with offensive upside and then moving them. Which I like.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 5, 2016 14:21:56 GMT -5
I remembered Kelly as a prospect, but not Tavo Alvarez. I don't think he would have been ranked that high today. He was a second round pick out of HS and in his second year at age 20 he went 17-5, 1.84 across high-A and a bit in AA. But in high-A he dominated by walking 45% less than league average and giving up 0 HR in 332 times made contact, while fanning 11% fewer than league average. You can guess that he had a great sinker but couldn't miss bats. After going 52, 153, 186 innings, he was hit hard the next year and appeared to miss the last third of the season, fell off the top 100, and missed all of 1994 and what looks like half of '95. His '95 ml starts went well, he got called up and got hammered in 8 starts and was never even a mediocre AAA guy after that. Way too common a story back then. Ah, the days of Jeff McNeely and Frankie Rodriguez. The Sox had a control artist back then who had pretty amazing numbers at Winter Haven, but he disappeared in Trenton. Can't remember his name, but I was pretty excited back then, buying my BAs in college and reading Gammons. I remember Kelly as being billed as Eric Davis V2.0, but he got yanked around a lot, never really panned out. Weird...the expansion draft. Blast from the past.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 5, 2016 15:11:46 GMT -5
I remembered Kelly as a prospect, but not Tavo Alvarez. I don't think he would have been ranked that high today. He was a second round pick out of HS and in his second year at age 20 he went 17-5, 1.84 across high-A and a bit in AA. But in high-A he dominated by walking 45% less than league average and giving up 0 HR in 332 times made contact, while fanning 11% fewer than league average. You can guess that he had a great sinker but couldn't miss bats. After going 52, 153, 186 innings, he was hit hard the next year and appeared to miss the last third of the season, fell off the top 100, and missed all of 1994 and what looks like half of '95. His '95 ml starts went well, he got called up and got hammered in 8 starts and was never even a mediocre AAA guy after that. Way too common a story back then. Ah, the days of Jeff McNeely and Frankie Rodriguez. The Sox had a control artist back then who had pretty amazing numbers at Winter Haven, but he disappeared in Trenton. Can't remember his name, but I was pretty excited back then, buying my BAs in college and reading Gammons. I remember Kelly as being billed as Eric Davis V2.0, but he got yanked around a lot, never really panned out. Weird...the expansion draft. Blast from the past. Brian Barkley? Good year at Sarasota in '95, bad one in Trenton in '96, got a '98 cup of coffee in MLB based on no apparent merit. That's the closest guy I could find that fit that description, and whose name I recognized. Rafael Orellano is another. The truly amazing Winter Haven year (from our primitive perspectives then; his SO/BB was meh) was Josias Manzanillo at age 18 in 1986. He blew out his elbow the next year in New Britain, but eventually had a career as a set-up guy. Edit: Of course, from a bit later, Juan Pena sort of fits that description (Sarasota '97, Trenton '98, but he always fanned a ton of guys despite not throwing hard). I recall that he struggled with arm trouble his whole ml career, so his season numbers are all a little misleading. He had great stretches while he was healthier. And a career 13 9 1 1 3 1 15 line in MLB before TJ surgery which he never adequately recovered from.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 5, 2016 16:54:12 GMT -5
Ah, the days of Jeff McNeely and Frankie Rodriguez. The Sox had a control artist back then who had pretty amazing numbers at Winter Haven, but he disappeared in Trenton. Can't remember his name, but I was pretty excited back then, buying my BAs in college and reading Gammons. I remember Kelly as being billed as Eric Davis V2.0, but he got yanked around a lot, never really panned out. Weird...the expansion draft. Blast from the past. Brian Barkley? Good year at Sarasota in '95, bad one in Trenton in '96, got a '98 cup of coffee in MLB based on no apparent merit. That's the closest guy I could find that fit that description, and whose name I recognized. Rafael Orellano is another. The truly amazing Winter Haven year (from our primitive perspectives then; his SO/BB was meh) was Josias Manzanillo at age 18 in 1986. He blew out his elbow the next year in New Britain, but eventually had a career as a set-up guy. Edit: Of course, from a bit later, Juan Pena sort of fits that description (Sarasota '97, Trenton '98, but he always fanned a ton of guys despite not throwing hard). I recall that he struggled with arm trouble his whole ml career, so his season numbers are all a little misleading. He had great stretches while he was healthier. And a career 13 9 1 1 3 1 15 line in MLB before TJ surgery which he never adequately recovered from. Wow, those are some *names*. It was earlier, though, like '92-'93. Never as highly regarded as that group. I remember all of those guys, though. Manzanillo made A-ball at 17. And Barkley was a pretty highly regarded lefty, at least by Gammons. Didn't Pena have a splitter? I remember him barely hitting 90 (though, to be fair, that was league average), and having injury trouble, but yeah, lots of Ks and he made the majors young (22?) Nah, this guy was a nobody, like a 30th round pick, never more than an a one-year anomaly. Probably old for the league, too. Won like 15 games with a low-2 ERA. Classic stat-line scouting by me. I'm going to have to look him up...I think it was Winter Haven. Might've been Carolina league though. It's pretty amazing how much scouting (and metrics) have evolved in 25 years.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Mar 5, 2016 18:43:55 GMT -5
To think the big 4 will likely all still be prospects by this time next year too. The cumulative ranking of all 4 could be ever higher next year, and Kopech might be in there next year too with a strong showing and a full season. Kopech in the top 20 might be a stretch but I can easily see him a top 50 prospect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 5, 2016 19:27:03 GMT -5
Brian Barkley? Good year at Sarasota in '95, bad one in Trenton in '96, got a '98 cup of coffee in MLB based on no apparent merit. That's the closest guy I could find that fit that description, and whose name I recognized. Rafael Orellano is another. The truly amazing Winter Haven year (from our primitive perspectives then; his SO/BB was meh) was Josias Manzanillo at age 18 in 1986. He blew out his elbow the next year in New Britain, but eventually had a career as a set-up guy. Edit: Of course, from a bit later, Juan Pena sort of fits that description (Sarasota '97, Trenton '98, but he always fanned a ton of guys despite not throwing hard). I recall that he struggled with arm trouble his whole ml career, so his season numbers are all a little misleading. He had great stretches while he was healthier. And a career 13 9 1 1 3 1 15 line in MLB before TJ surgery which he never adequately recovered from. Wow, those are some *names*. It was earlier, though, like '92-'93. Never as highly regarded as that group. I remember all of those guys, though. Manzanillo made A-ball at 17. And Barkley was a pretty highly regarded lefty, at least by Gammons. Didn't Pena have a splitter? I remember him barely hitting 90 (though, to be fair, that was league average), and having injury trouble, but yeah, lots of Ks and he made the majors young (22?) Nah, this guy was a nobody, like a 30th round pick, never more than an a one-year anomaly. Probably old for the league, too. Won like 15 games with a low-2 ERA. Classic stat-line scouting by me. I'm going to have to look him up...I think it was Winter Haven. Might've been Carolina league though. It's pretty amazing how much scouting (and metrics) have evolved in 25 years. There was a 24th round pick out of BC who went 12-9 with a 2.16 ERA with Lynchburg in 1991, with 103 SO and 34 BB in 174 IP. He then had a 5.32 ERA in New Britain, going 3-20. If this is your man, it's no wonder you can't remember his name. Tim Smith!
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Post by telson13 on Mar 6, 2016 16:07:46 GMT -5
Wow, those are some *names*. It was earlier, though, like '92-'93. Never as highly regarded as that group. I remember all of those guys, though. Manzanillo made A-ball at 17. And Barkley was a pretty highly regarded lefty, at least by Gammons. Didn't Pena have a splitter? I remember him barely hitting 90 (though, to be fair, that was league average), and having injury trouble, but yeah, lots of Ks and he made the majors young (22?) Nah, this guy was a nobody, like a 30th round pick, never more than an a one-year anomaly. Probably old for the league, too. Won like 15 games with a low-2 ERA. Classic stat-line scouting by me. I'm going to have to look him up...I think it was Winter Haven. Might've been Carolina league though. It's pretty amazing how much scouting (and metrics) have evolved in 25 years. There was a 24th round pick out of BC who went 12-9 with a 2.16 ERA with Lynchburg in 1991, with 103 SO and 34 BB in 174 IP. He then had a 5.32 ERA in New Britain, going 3-20. If this is your man, it's no wonder you can't remember his name. Tim Smith! That's him. Lynchburg...well, at least I was right about high A. Tim Smith...damn, I didn't realize he was that bad in AA. I also said Trenton, which is silly because every good Sox fan should remember what a cavern Beehive was, given that Mo Vaughn only hit 8 taters there, and Bagwell 4. You made my weekend with that ID. And "Super" was good, just finished it. Ellen Page is great...TPB alum. After the draft, presuming there are no significant MLB graduations, and if the top-5 keep up their development, is this the best minor league talent the Sox have had? They could have 5-6 top-50s by mid season.
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