SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
SoxProspects Rankings Discussion
|
Post by wskeleton76 on May 1, 2016 2:05:18 GMT -5
Sam Travis is only bat player.
5.6 BB% 25.8 K% 48.3 GB%
His approach needs lots of works. He can't drive the ball enough. Hard to believe why he is highly regarded.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
Member is Online
|
Post by radiohix on May 1, 2016 8:13:37 GMT -5
Sam Travis is only bat player. 5.6 BB% 25.8 K% 48.3 GB% His approach needs lots of works. He can't drive the ball enough. Hard to believe why he is highly regarded. His defense is also below average.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 1, 2016 10:16:17 GMT -5
Let's see. Travis is 22 and has gotten to AAA in his third season and where he is one of the best hitters on the team. His .289 BA is the lowest average he has had so far as is his .760 OPS. His BB/K ratio in his career so far is much better than the SSS at Pawtucket this season. At Scottsdale last fall he hit .344 with a .900 OPS, 9 BB and 19 Ks in 102 ABs. He has been an exceptional hitter at every level against every type of competition and he works hard to improve. That's why he is highly regarded, particularly within the Sox organization.
According to various reports I have read he has real power but hasn't developed the lift in his swing yet.
Also, the scouting report on him on this site seems considerably out of date. It concludes he could move quickly through the low minors. He did that real quick. On the other hand, the roster projections for 2017 have him the starting 1B for the Sox.
|
|
|
Post by wskeleton76 on May 1, 2016 10:51:01 GMT -5
According to various reports I have read he has real power but hasn't developed the lift in his swing yet. His raw power may be 55 or better but not 70. Little lift in his swing is a serious problem. Lars Anderson and Garin Cecchini also had some pop but failed to learn how to lift the ball in the end.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 1, 2016 11:09:05 GMT -5
I don't think Anderson and Cecchini are comparables. Anderson's best year was at Lancaster and it wasn't a lack of power that sunk his career. He just couldn't hit the better pitching at the higher levels. Cecchini is a bit more of a mystery. He seemed to have the hit tool and then lost it. Again, lack of power was not his downfall. He simply stopped hitting at all.
On the other hand, Travis has been very consistent right up through the minors. If he can hit .300 in the majors with a +.800 OPS, and there is no reason to believe that is unlikely, the odds are very good he will play somewhere.
However, I think it is more likely that Shaw will be the starting 1B when and if Sandoval comes back and can play reasonably well, or if Moncada can play 3B.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2016 11:35:08 GMT -5
I don't think Anderson and Cecchini are comparables. Anderson's best year was at Lancaster and it wasn't a lack of power that sunk his career. He just couldn't hit the better pitching at the higher levels. Cecchini is a bit more of a mystery. He seemed to have the hit tool and then lost it. Again, lack of power was not his downfall. He simply stopped hitting at all. On the other hand, Travis has been very consistent right up through the minors. If he can hit .300 in the majors with a +.800 OPS, and there is no reason to believe that is unlikely, the odds are very good he will play somewhere. However, I think it is more likely that Shaw will be the starting 1B when and if Sandoval comes back and can play reasonably well, or if Moncada can play 3B. This has been discussed a lot, but Cecchini's lack of power is what did him in. He couldn't walk by being passive anymore while moving up so he changed his approach and tried to sell out for more power. That ruined his swing, but his tools were never going to translate to the majors without some combination of power and contact. He didn't have enough contact to cover for the lack of power.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 1, 2016 12:15:49 GMT -5
There are very, very few prospects that you can reasonably project to hit .300 in the majors. That's roughly a 70 hit tool, which most outlets will give to maybe a half-dozen or a dozen prospects in all of the minors at any given time. Maybe Travis keeps improving and gets there, but that's certainly not the consensus opinion on his hit tool as of right now. It's more like a 55 or a 60 (and that might be optimistic; Fangraphs gives him a 50+, for instance), which is in the .270 to .280 range.
If he does that with the patience and power he's shown in the minors, it's something like a .280/.340/.420 line. That's still very good, but it's not an .800 OPS and would be a little below-average for a 1B.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 1, 2016 14:58:07 GMT -5
I am somewhat leery of absolute projections of minor league players, especially young ones. I don't think the projections for Travis Shaw were anywhere close to what he is doing in the majors. He was not a highly ranked prospect and many people up to the time he reached the majors - and even after - did not believe he could be a regular, to say nothing of being an exceptional hitter and generally a quite good all around player.
I don't dispute that years of experience and correlating data and performance should yield projection results that turn out to be reasonably accurate for most players. But there always are notable exceptions, both ways.
Any list of top 100 prospects in any year five to 15 years ago will have many highly ranked players who never made it, or barely made it and others who outperformed their projections.
Some individuals have the ability and the drive to improve as they gain experience and move up and they become much better than anyone expected. This is not just true in baseball. It is my experience that it is the case with most occupations. Shaw certainly has. Betts has as well. From what I have read about Travis he may be another with that ability and clearly his rank on this board shows a lot of people believe that could be the case.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 1, 2016 15:02:45 GMT -5
This has been discussed a lot, but Cecchini's lack of power is what did him in. He couldn't walk by being passive anymore while moving up so he changed his approach and tried to sell out for more power. That ruined his swing, but his tools were never going to translate to the majors without some combination of power and contact. He didn't have enough contact to cover for the lack of power. I guess I missed that discussion because I was not aware of what he did, just of what his stats show - a real drop-off after some pretty decent performances. and I also remember some analysts saying he had outstanding hitting potential.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 1, 2016 15:31:42 GMT -5
I am somewhat leery of absolute projections of minor league players, especially young ones. I don't think the projections for Travis Shaw were anywhere close to what he is doing in the majors. He was not a highly ranked prospect and many people up to the time he reached the majors - and even after - did not believe he could be a regular, to say nothing of being an exceptional hitter and generally a quite good all around player. I don't dispute that years of experience and correlating data and performance should yield projection results that turn out to be reasonably accurate for most players. But there always are notable exceptions, both ways. Any list of top 100 prospects in any year five to 15 years ago will have many highly ranked players who never made it, or barely made it and others who outperformed their projections. Some individuals have the ability and the drive to improve as they gain experience and move up and they become much better than anyone expected. This is not just true in baseball. It is my experience that it is the case with most occupations. Shaw certainly has. Betts has as well. From what I have read about Travis he may be another with that ability and clearly his rank on this board shows a lot of people believe that could be the case. To be clear, what I posted had nothing to do with projection systems in the Steamer, ZiPS, PECOTA, etc. sense. It had to do with scouting reports, all of which suggest that while Travis has a good hit tool, he doesn't have a great hit tool. Certainly, scouting reports are far from absolutely accurate. But you said "If he can hit .300 in the majors with a +.800 OPS, and there is no reason to believe that is unlikely"-- my point was that there is plenty of reason to believe that is unlikely. He has to substantially outperform his current scouting reports, and while that is certainly possible, it is also certainly an unlikely outcome.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on May 1, 2016 18:20:28 GMT -5
OK, I misunderstood. You make a good point. I have more faith in professional scouting reports than I do in projections.
|
|
|
Post by pokeyreesespieces on May 1, 2016 20:33:00 GMT -5
OK, I misunderstood. You make a good point. I have more faith in professional scouting reports than I do in projections. where are these "professional scouting reports"?
|
|
dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
|
Post by dd on May 31, 2016 16:25:20 GMT -5
Details
Summary:- No changes in the top 7.
- Travis Lakins moved up a spot to # 8.
- Marco Hernandez is up 2 positions at # 9.
- Luis Alexander Basabe fell from 8 to 11.
- Mauricio Dubon and Pat Light up 1 and 2 respectively coming in at 13 & 14.
- Trey Ball up from 17 to 15.
- Deven Marrero dropped to 17, down 5, and his grade also fell to 4,4-4.5.
- Kyle Martin is in the top 20 for the first time at # 18, up by 3.
- Ditto Josh Ockimey at # 20, up from 26.
- Raniel Raudes is 23rd, up 4.
- Luis Alejandro Basabe rose 6 spots coming in at 24.
- Williams Jerez fell from 18 to 25.
- Luis Ysla down from 22 to 27.
- Jalen Beeks also dow, from 25 to 29.
- Jake Cosart, who was 24th last spring but fell to # 60 by October, is slowly rising again. He up to # 31 this month.
- Henry Ramos up from 35 to 32 but he's got a very long way to reach his peak ranking of 17 two years ago.
- Wendell Rijo at # 34, down 6.
- Marc Brakeman at # 36, down 4.
- Jordan Procyshen moved up from 40 to 37.
- Tate Matheny up from 48 to 41.
- Jake Romanski up 5 to # 46.
- Victor Diaz fell from 38 to 47.
- Justin Haley returned to the top 60 at # 57 for the first time since he was 58th back in February.
- Bobby Poyner is the big gainer this month. He was ranked for the first time last month at 60 and moved up 10 to # 50.
- Dropping out of the top 60 was Lorenzo Cedrola, # 59 last month.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on May 31, 2016 19:52:37 GMT -5
I am a big fan of poyner. Kudos for bumping him up.
|
|
|
Post by Mike Andrews on May 31, 2016 19:59:40 GMT -5
Haley was actually added to the top 60, not dropped. The only drop was Lorenzo Cedrola who just fell out.
Sent from my smart phone
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 2, 2016 9:47:39 GMT -5
Here's a good question: how long you should wait before you decide that extraordinary, eye-popping performance by a guy with a big bonus isn't some sort of fluke?
After 206 PA, Josh Ockimey is the fourth best qualified hitter in the entire minor leagues by wRC+. Exclude the two guys in AAA who are 26 and 31, and he's second to Alex Bregman.
If you'd predicted that at season's start, you would have been mocked or institutionalized.
Imagine DDo calling a fellow exec to acquire a spare part, or discussing an extra piece for a blockbuster.
"Who would you rather have, Billy, Kyle Martin or Josh Ockimey?" You have to add a rim shot to that to make it a credible sentence.
Ockimey should be 13th.
See Mookie's thread for a case study of a similar breakout. I'm not saying that Ockimey will even make MLB, let alone be a superstar, but the comp establishes that his ceiling as a power hitter is attainable, and guys with his entirely credible power ceiling, based on jaw-dropping performance, do not rank behind any relief pitching prospects, inconsistent potential back-of-rotation starters, or a possible second-division starting SS who seems likelier to be a backup. Power like that has become the game's rarest commodity.
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Jun 2, 2016 10:48:56 GMT -5
Does it make me a bad person that I literally had never heard of Lorenzo Cedrola before now?
There's plenty of time to do it next month, and I'm all about not overreacting to small samples, but I do strongly suspect Ockimey's going to be higher in the next list. Still SSS, but literally every stat looks better for him to a significant degree.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2016 14:47:04 GMT -5
Ockimey has risen 17 spots from the start of the season, most in the system. The only comparable jumps are guys who are still in the back half of the list, where each spot isn't quite as meaningful.
He's still trending upward. Personally, I've got him 16th, so I'm on board the bandwagon, but I'm fine with 20 for now because the trend is upward and he's going to keep climbing if he keeps hitting.
For what it's worth, he's hitting great, but the 1B-only profile is a tough one, and he's not great defensively. It's also not like he's super young for the league - consider that he effectively is a year older than the Basabes, for example.
I like what he's doing. He's going to keep rising. Relax. We don't just completely crumple up a guy's entire history and throw it out based on 2 months of data.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jun 2, 2016 15:26:39 GMT -5
Here's a good question: how long you should wait before you decide that extraordinary, eye-popping performance by a guy with a big bonus isn't some sort of fluke? After 206 PA, Josh Ockimey is the fourth best qualified hitter in the entire minor leagues by wRC+. Exclude the two guys in AAA who are 26 and 31, and he's second to Alex Bregman. If you'd predicted that at season's start, you would have been mocked or institutionalized. Imagine DDo calling a fellow exec to acquire a spare part, or discussing an extra piece for a blockbuster. "Who would you rather have, Billy, Kyle Martin or Josh Ockimey?" You have to add a rim shot to that to make it a credible sentence. Ockimey should be 13th. See Mookie's thread for a case study of a similar breakout. I'm not saying that Ockimey will even make MLB, let alone be a superstar, but the comp establishes that his ceiling as a power hitter is attainable, and guys with his entirely credible power ceiling, based on jaw-dropping performance, do not rank behind any relief pitching prospects, inconsistent potential back-of-rotation starters, or a possible second-division starting SS who seems likelier to be a backup. Power like that has become the game's rarest commodity. I sometimes take MLB.com's rankings with a grain salt....but credit to them for placing Ockimey at #16 before the season even began.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 2, 2016 16:28:48 GMT -5
Ockimey has risen 17 spots from the start of the season, most in the system. The only comparable jumps are guys who are still in the back half of the list, where each spot isn't quite as meaningful. He's still trending upward. Personally, I've got him 16th, so I'm on board the bandwagon, but I'm fine with 20 for now because the trend is upward and he's going to keep climbing if he keeps hitting. For what it's worth, he's hitting great, but the 1B-only profile is a tough one, and he's not great defensively. It's also not like he's super young for the league - consider that he effectively is a year older than the Basabes, for example. I like what he's doing. He's going to keep rising. Relax. We don't just completely crumple up a guy's entire history and throw it out based on 2 months of data. I actually have no problem with this. The conservatism of breakouts is part of the site's DNA. If folks want to reframe it as my personal argument, they can. The one thing I think the site consistently gets wrong is the replacement of relief prospects. They're all usually a handful of spots higher than they deserve to be. It's function of overrating the value of all relievers, rather than anything to do with prospects per se. Here's a good question: how long you should wait before you decide that extraordinary, eye-popping performance by a guy with a big bonus isn't some sort of fluke? After 206 PA, Josh Ockimey is the fourth best qualified hitter in the entire minor leagues by wRC+. Exclude the two guys in AAA who are 26 and 31, and he's second to Alex Bregman. If you'd predicted that at season's start, you would have been mocked or institutionalized. Imagine DDo calling a fellow exec to acquire a spare part, or discussing an extra piece for a blockbuster. "Who would you rather have, Billy, Kyle Martin or Josh Ockimey?" You have to add a rim shot to that to make it a credible sentence. Ockimey should be 13th. See Mookie's thread for a case study of a similar breakout. I'm not saying that Ockimey will even make MLB, let alone be a superstar, but the comp establishes that his ceiling as a power hitter is attainable, and guys with his entirely credible power ceiling, based on jaw-dropping performance, do not rank behind any relief pitching prospects, inconsistent potential back-of-rotation starters, or a possible second-division starting SS who seems likelier to be a backup. Power like that has become the game's rarest commodity. I sometimes take MLB.com's rankings with a grain salt....but credit to them for placing Ockimey at #16 before the season even began. Ooh, I forgot that. He's a Callis fave, then, and that's worth putting some stock into.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 2, 2016 17:14:04 GMT -5
I actually agree with the reliever point and that's something we've realized over the past year or two. However, at this particular point in time, I think the presence of so many relievers in the 13-31 range (8 of them plus Beeks, who projects as one) is a comment on how weak the depth is there. Consider that the SP ranking at this point is basically Espinoza, Kopech, Johnson... then plummets to the Ball, Stankiewicz and Acosta, Raudes tier, although R2 is also rising. And those seven are essentially the ENTIRE list of guys who project as MLB starters potentially, with maybe Wilkerson as an up and down guy. If that's the case, you either have a lot of relievers, current or projected, on your list or you just don't have any pitchers.
As for the Callis list, he loves those projectable high school types. Recall that he was the leader in the Lars Anderson bandwagon.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Jun 2, 2016 22:27:59 GMT -5
Speier also had Ockimey at #23 before the season started....also fairly aggressive and influenced by reports he had received at instructs.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 28, 2016 8:51:26 GMT -5
Didn't know where else to put this but I wanted to share. For whatever reason I have a copy of the rankings on my google drive from 9/21/12
Mookie Betts was #61, he had actually dropped there from 59 and a high of 44 earlier in the year. Also of note, Steven Wright also saw his stock drop down to 44.
And because he got promoted to the big league club this week, Mike Meyers was at 62.
Sometimes you just never know...
|
|
|
Post by borisman on Jun 28, 2016 10:12:46 GMT -5
Didn't know where else to put this but I wanted to share. For whatever reason I have a copy of the rankings on my google drive from 9/21/12 Mookie Betts was #61, he had actually dropped there from 59 and a high of 44 earlier in the year. Also of note, Steven Wright also saw his stock drop down to 44. And because he got promoted to the big league club this week, Mike Meyers was at 62. Sometimes you just never know... So, 44 is the magic number? Brentz is currently there now. We should call him up. Maybe he'll start tearing it up.
|
|
|
Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 28, 2016 10:24:24 GMT -5
Didn't know where else to put this but I wanted to share. For whatever reason I have a copy of the rankings on my google drive from 9/21/12 Mookie Betts was #61, he had actually dropped there from 59 and a high of 44 earlier in the year. Also of note, Steven Wright also saw his stock drop down to 44. And because he got promoted to the big league club this week, Mike Meyers was at 62. Sometimes you just never know... So, 44 is the magic number? Brentz is currently there now. We should call him up. Maybe he'll start tearing it up.If only it was that simple.
|
|
|