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5/3-5/5 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
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Post by Guidas on May 6, 2016 6:37:15 GMT -5
Great win, Hope we don't need more than a couple innings from the pen Friday night.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 6, 2016 8:11:34 GMT -5
He (Owens) punched the ticket on something I noticed watching the at bats against him evolve last evening. He knows exactly what he should be doing - painting the edges - but he's not good enough right now to do it with any consistency. He smears that paint everywhere. He really doesn't offer up much for players to hit, but he doesn't have to for guys to wait him out for a walk. If that happens often enough he's in trouble no matter what.
Just a fancy way of saying he needs better control. What is encouraging is that he knows what the target is. Maybe he gets there once he gets all those limbs synced.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 6, 2016 8:13:04 GMT -5
And now Henry Owens will baffle the White Sox by throwing just as many balls as strikes and not being able to even tell himself which are which as the ball leaves his hand. All I'm asking from him is a 2 run 4 innings "effort" and then we unleach the BP. Can you do this for me Hank? Good call Nostradamus.
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nomar
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Posts: 11,015
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2016 8:18:09 GMT -5
Saw this on Fangraphs: Machado = A-Rod Correa = Chipper Jones Lindor = Nomar Xander = Jeter Seager = Tejada As if Lindor could hold Nomar's jock with the bat.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 8:24:36 GMT -5
Saw this on Fangraphs: Machado = A-Rod Correa = Chipper Jones Lindor = Nomar Xander = Jeter Seager = Tejada As if Lindor could hold Nomar's jock with the bat. Nomar career wRC+: 124 Lindor career wRC+: 127
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2016 8:29:11 GMT -5
As if Lindor could hold Nomar's jock with the bat. Nomar career wRC+: 124 Lindor career wRC+: 127 After 2003, his career took a major nosedive because of injury. Up to that point he had a 134 wRC+. And Lindor's last year was slightly inflated by an unsustainable ISO.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 8:32:18 GMT -5
Nomar career wRC+: 124 Lindor career wRC+: 127 After 2003, his career took a major nosedive because of injury. Up to that point he had a 134 wRC+. And Lindor's last year was slightly inflated by an unsustainable ISO. If a 22 year old Lindor is seven points of wRC+ off Nomar's peak, I think you're making my point for me.
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Post by sibbysisti on May 6, 2016 8:36:52 GMT -5
Nomar's numbers are over a 15 yr. career. Plus, he has a .321 BA in post season play. Linder is still working on that.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2016 8:48:05 GMT -5
After 2003, his career took a major nosedive because of injury. Up to that point he had a 134 wRC+. And Lindor's last year was slightly inflated by an unsustainable ISO. If a 22 year old Lindor is seven points of wRC+ off Nomar's peak, I think you're making my point for me. Not if it isn't sustainable.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2016 8:48:50 GMT -5
JBJ has now played in 101 games of 122 wRC+ baseball over the par calendar year.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 9:00:56 GMT -5
If a 22 year old Lindor is seven points of wRC+ off Nomar's peak, I think you're making my point for me. Not if it isn't sustainable. Maybe it will be and maybe it won't be. But I hope you'll concede that there is a reasonable enough shot of his being a good enough hitter that the possibility shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on May 6, 2016 9:02:04 GMT -5
Not if it isn't sustainable. Maybe it will be and maybe it won't be. But I hope you'll concede that there is a reasonable enough shot of his being a good enough hitter that the possibility shouldn't be dismissed out of hand. I agree, definitely fair.
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Post by sox fan in nc on May 6, 2016 9:03:11 GMT -5
I know it won't happen. Could we temporarily switch JBJ & Betts in the line-up?
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Post by thursty on May 6, 2016 10:03:52 GMT -5
I know it won't happen. Could we temporarily switch JBJ & Betts in the line-up? No, because it's not rational to make decisions based on 100 PAs as opposed to 900.
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Post by mandelbro on May 6, 2016 10:10:35 GMT -5
I know it won't happen. Could we temporarily switch JBJ & Betts in the line-up? I don't think I've ever been less worried about a young Sox player in my life than Mookie Betts.
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Post by mgoetze on May 6, 2016 10:27:09 GMT -5
Wow. Robbie Ross. Just remember folks, NEVER trade starting pitching for a reliever. I agree with this principle. I do not agree that Ranaudo is a starting pitcher.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 12:27:10 GMT -5
Wow. Robbie Ross. Just remember folks, NEVER trade starting pitching for a reliever. I agree with this principle. I do not agree that Ranaudo is a starting pitcher. I presume that the portion of that designation you find objectable is "pitcher?"
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 12:41:01 GMT -5
Pitchers can get by without a great fastball if they have exceptional command. A pitcher can get by without much command if they have exceptional velocity. Basically anyone who gets buy without either throws a trick pitch. Did Cliff Lee have a great fastball? I don't know, I guess it was pretty average-ish, sure. But I know for sure that he walked eighteen pitchers in 212 innings in 2010. Did Nolan Ryan have great control? Certaintly not. But he also threw 98+ consistently and had 80-grade durability. You can't take a player's biggest weakness and find comps based on that while ignoring the strength. We're not holding Owens to a HOF standard, though. Great pitchers have great somethings, usually more than one. Good pitchers have a great one thing, and a lot of passable everything else. Or, they have pretty good a lot of things, but no glaring weakness. Cliff Lee had a LH-average FB (90-91), but outstanding command and a very good CH, and a fairly good slider. Eovaldi and Kelly throw as hard as Ryan, but obviously lack the terrific CB and durability. I think you're WAY oversimplifying. Owens has an average FB, a fantastic CH, and an average SL. What he lacks is sufficient command. He's Glavining the corners, only its 1987 Glavine...nibbling but just missing. He knows enough not to put it down the middle, but is missing the edges for balls. He has the repertoire, not the full use of it. But the pieces are there for a solid, even good, MLB pitcher, provided he can learn to spot the FB. He doesn't need Cliff Lee command to have moderate success, he just needs moderately good command (and I say command, not control, because I think his walks are due to nibbling, not an inability to get the ball over the plate).
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 13:36:27 GMT -5
Of 174 MLB starting pitchers with 70+ IP since the beginning of 2015, Henry Owens ranks fifth worst in terms of percentage of pitches in the strike zone, second worst in terms of first strike percentage and fifth worst in walk rate. It seems pretty generous to claim that his issue is more with command than with control when he has statistically been one of the wildest starting pitchers in baseball since he debuted. It's not just that he's nibbling too much, it's that he can't throw strikes consistently, especially with his fastball. Also, after you get called out for your Cliff Lee comp, maybe not such a good idea to jump to a Tom Glavine comp. Maybe steer clear of HoF-caliber player comps in general.
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Post by jimed14 on May 6, 2016 14:01:41 GMT -5
So to get this straight, we should discount JBJ's and Shaw's results in the majors over the past year, but we should understand that Lindor's and Owens' results in the majors in the last year are indicative of what they will be as major league players.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 14:07:48 GMT -5
Of 174 MLB starting pitchers with 70+ IP since the beginning of 2015, Henry Owens ranks fifth worst in terms of percentage of pitches in the strike zone, second worst in terms of first strike percentage and fifth worst in walk rate. It seems pretty generous to claim that his issue is more with command than with control when he has statistically been one of the wildest starting pitchers in baseball since he debuted. It's not just that he's nibbling too much, it's that he can't throw strikes consistently, especially with his fastball. Also, after you get called out for your Cliff Lee comp, maybe not such a good idea to jump to a Tom Glavine comp. Maybe steer clear of HoF-caliber player comps in general. Honestly, if you somehow read into what I said as comparing Owens to Cliff Lee, I can't help you. I said that their fastball velocity is similar, and that's all. There's an ocean of difference more vast than the Pacific between likening aspects of pitchers' development and/or repertoire, and comparing the whole. This is not the first time you've made that sort of inductive leap.
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Post by jmei on May 6, 2016 14:17:30 GMT -5
So to get this straight, we should ignore JBJ's and Shaw's results in the majors over the past year, but we should understand that Lindor's and Owens' results in the majors in the last year are indicative of what they will be as major league players. I have said exactly zero of these things. To avoid derailing the thread too much, let's focus on Owens. I did not say that Owens could not improve. He absolutely could, and probably will. But, in terms of evaluating his major league performance so far, it is a fact that he has had some of the worst control in the league, and if he doesn't improve, he's not a major league pitcher.
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 14:18:21 GMT -5
Also, I would hope a reasonable person could differentiate between using a well-known example of a pitching style/foible/characteristic with an attached name that someone can recognize and say "oh, yeah, I get that," and the reality-bending Herculean leap of logic required to infer "(I can't believe) he's saying pitcher X is/is going to become pitcher Y." Good grief, send that straw man to Rhodes.
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Post by okin15 on May 6, 2016 14:41:16 GMT -5
and I say command, not control, because I think his walks are due to nibbling, not an inability to get the ball over the plate I don't buy the part about command vs control. He's not nibbling, he's missing big, often by several inches. He may be trying to nibble, but he occasionally takes big bites, and otherwise chomps on air, at least that was the case last night. The other starts were less ghastly, but still pretty wild. You can see his pitches here from last night: www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2016-05-05&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0&season=2016
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2016 15:35:25 GMT -5
and I say command, not control, because I think his walks are due to nibbling, not an inability to get the ball over the plate I don't buy the part about command vs control. He's not nibbling, he's missing big, often by several inches. He may be trying to nibble, but he occasionally takes big bites, and otherwise chomps on air, at least that was the case last night. The other starts were less ghastly, but still pretty wild. You can see his pitches here from last night: www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2016-05-05&team=Red%20Sox&dh=0&season=2016That's a tally of all pitches. In fact, Owens has relatively few "awful" misses...if you go to each pitch, you'll be able to see the pitcher for that particular pitch. What does stand out to me is that Owens got a number of called balls *in* the zone, and has a lot of misses just off the edge. Now, part of the issue is that he's not hitting his spots, which I'm sure encourages umps to perceive him as wild and not give calls in his favor. Part of it is also the ludicrously small strike zone and pretty awful umpiring (essentially no "edge" strikes, and a horrendous number of clear strikes called balls). I'm sure the cold didn't help, either. Owens has his issues, but last night's game was just as much about poor umpiring. Owens can't throw it down the pipe, or he'll get hammered. He took a rational approach, didn't execute on the edges, and got burned for it.
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