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How do you improve the Red Sox
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2016 10:32:26 GMT -5
Fangraphs projects the Red Sox to go .547 the rest of the way, which is the highest projected rest-of-season record of any AL team ( link). The heavy slate of road games is balanced by the fact that they have a relatively easy strength of schedule the rest of the way (they've played the second-hardest schedule in the AL to date (including a lot of divisional games against the Blue Jays and Orioles) but have the fifth-easiest schedule going forward ( link)). Well, here comes a nice small sample to means test the "strength of schedule" theory, which I have long disputed for a variety of reasons, not the least of which team play can often be quite dynamic over short stretches (see the Braves recent games vs. the Mets), a quality starting pitcher (or two) on the "weak" team can be encountered, and - perhaps germane to this particular discussion - one's own team could be experiencing a funk/regression. All that said, here is Tampa, losers of 11 straight. Sox should at minimum take 2 and reasonably, given their Fangraphs projection as the best AL team for the rest of the way, all three. Yes? Yes, unexpected things can happen in small sample sizes. The spread in true talent level in baseball is very slim and the best team in the league is not that much better than the worst team in the league. There is never such a thing as "X team should at minimum beat Y team two of out three." That's what makes the games worth watching.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2016 10:32:53 GMT -5
More generally, I think the concern over the bullpen is a little overwrought. Kimbrel is still one of the better relievers in the league, Tazawa is a fine (if middle-of-the-pack) setup man, Uehara's peripherals are still elite (seventh-best strikeout rate in the league among relievers, 2.34 SIERA) and despite the increasing susceptibility to home runs, he's still at least an above-average reliever, Ross has been excellent against both righties and lefties, and Hembree has been elite versus RHH (2.10 FIP this year; 3.16 FIP career). Those five guys form the core of an above-average bullpen. Fangraphs, for instance, projects them as the third-best bullpen in the league going forward. Even if you think their Uehara projection is a little bullish, it's still top half of the league. That's not to say that they can't or shouldn't improve the bullpen, but I think it's an exaggeration to say that the bullpen is the weakest part of their team. LF, fourth/fifth starter, and 3B/1B are much bigger needs in my mind, and I think the value proposition of upgrading those spots is much better compared to the bullpen. My sense (not based on any data) is that, because pretty much every team could use a bullpen upgrade at the deadline, relievers are among the most expensive players to acquire at the deadline. Plus, there are non-acquisition moves they can make to improve the bullpen. For instance, the coaching staff/front office could stop deluding themselves into thinking Matt Barnes is one of their better relievers (despite the velocity, he isn't-- struggles with command and control). Or they could upgrade Layne's spot in the bullpen with someone who might be able to provide more length (Martin, Light, maybe even Kelly). Or Farrell could actually use Robbie Ross, Jr.
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2016 10:36:46 GMT -5
More generally, I think the concern over the bullpen is a little overwrought. Kimbrel is still one of the better relievers in the league, Tazawa is a fine (if middle-of-the-pack) setup man, Uehara's peripherals are still elite (seventh-best strikeout rate in the league among relievers, 2.34 SIERA) and despite the increasing susceptibility to home runs, he's still at least an above-average reliever, Ross has been excellent against both righties and lefties, and Hembree has been elite versus RHH (2.10 FIP this year; 3.16 FIP career). Those five guys form the core of an above-average bullpen. Fangraphs, for instance, projects them as the third-best bullpen in the league going forward. Even if you think their Uehara projection is a little bullish, it's still top half of the league. That's not to say that they can't or shouldn't improve the bullpen, but I think it's an exaggeration to say that the bullpen is the weakest part of their team. LF, fourth/fifth starter, and 3B/1B are much bigger needs in my mind, and I think the value proposition of upgrading those spots is much better compared to the bullpen. My sense (not based on any data) is that, because pretty much every team could use a bullpen upgrade at the deadline, relievers are among the most expensive players to acquire at the deadline. Plus, there are non-acquisition moves they can make to improve the bullpen. For instance, the coaching staff/front office could stop deluding themselves into thinking Matt Barnes is one of their better relievers (despite the velocity, he isn't-- struggles with command and control). Or they could upgrade Layne's spot in the bullpen with someone who might be able to provide more length (Martin, Light, maybe even Kelly). Or Farrell could actually use Robbie Ross, Jr. I don't like to blame Farrell for everything, and it's true that bad luck also has something to do with it. But when your bullpen is top five in WAR but middle of the pack in win probability added, some of it is on the manager for not using your best relievers in the highest-leverage situations.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2016 11:01:28 GMT -5
Ah, gotcha. I'd say this though: anecdotal evidence is generalizing a hypothesis and strengthening it to a "proven theory" or truism based on personal experience. What I'm pointing out isn't anecdotal, because I'm not generalizing. I'm giving examples that disprove a theory, i.e that good/consistent pitching is required to win in the postseason. Disproving a theory only requires one example. But even so, on balance, which of the last 15 WS-winning teams won with pitching, and which ones won with offense? Or both? And Eric makes a good point: a pitcher who goes 6 innings, giving up 3 runs each time as your #4 starter is less likely to assure you two wins than is the guy who gives up 2 runs twice and 5 the third time. So unless you're talking consistent *excellence*, consistency is probably a detriment. *Peak* talent might actually be more crucial. When I have a minute I'm going to put Teheran's game data in a spreadsheet, along with all the Sox starters. My guess is that Teheran will have the highest "confidence level" of giving up the fewest runs in any given game.* Of course, I don't propose that I have a large enough data set to prove anything. I'm just saying that's all I mean by "consistency". I feel like you and ericmvan may be using the word in another sense, which is also quite valid, while I'm thinking quite narrowly of: "consistency == confidence level". (And as a GM, consistency qua confidence level matters, IMHO.) ADD:*Technically, the definition I am thinking of is, "the probability that the value of a parameter falls within a specified range of values." As a corollary, I suspect the "confidence level" will be quite low that Buch or Erod will allow as few runs as Teheran in any given game. To do the latter, you would, as even just a reasonable approximation, overlay Teheran's batted ball charts over Fenway, and recalculate his numbers. Of course, even that's a poor approximation because of the difference in defensive play. But, as a known FIP-beater, it would be informative. Because, at the least, you could make some guesses as to how well his strategy/style would play in Fenway. My guess is, not very well. I understand your point regarding confidence level (which I interpret as consistent *quality*), however there are several issues here. The prime issue is Teheran in Fenway, and the AL East. I'm not disputing that Teheran is a consistently above-average pitcher in Turner...I'm saying that it's highly unlikely that he performs near that level in Boston. His performance against the AL in his career has been very bad. Being in a park where fly balls become doubles might even cause him to lose the one attribute that makes him a good pitcher. I personally think that it would, but I can't prove it. My point is that, as much confidence as we might have in his performance in Atlanta, there is massive ambiguity about how that performance will translate, which abrogates that confidence, if not on the basis of consistency but quality.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2016 11:03:25 GMT -5
Or Farrell could actually use Robbie Ross, Jr. I don't like to blame Farrell for everything, and it's true that bad luck also has something to do with it. But when your bullpen is top five in WAR but middle of the pack in win probability added, some of it is on the manager for not using your best relievers in the highest-leverage situations. Part of that has been Uehara specifically underperforming. It's hard call on when to move someone like that out of a high-leverage role - you don't want to disregard several years of excellent work because he gave up a few extra homers over 25 innings. But yeah, the Red Sox haven't beaten their pythagorean record now in six years and it seems like more than bad luck. Anyhow, Teheran would improve the Red Sox and his team-friendly contract means there is some value there. Not Benintendi-level value but certainly worth anyone in the second tier, easily. I just don't buy the old argument about it being so hard to pitch in the AL East. The Yankees and Rays really stink at hitting. Baltimore and Toronto are tough, but they are going to be tough for any pitcher. Remember when Cole Hamels wouldn't be able to pitch in the AL? Good times, good times. And don't dare quote me his FIP. Hamels has been outperforming his peripherals since Jason Groome was in the second grade.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 27, 2016 11:12:32 GMT -5
If the season ended today Boston is the top wildcard team. This after playing overall poor baseball for the last 10 days or so. The sky is not falling. There is absolutely no reason to trade any of the big 4, hopefully soon to be big 5 in this system. Look at Baltimore's staff. Yankees. Houston, KC, etc. On paper are they any better than ours? It's a marathon not a sprint. IMO, my only move I consider right now, is firing JF and riding this season out with TL instead. JF has had plenty of time to prove himself here and in Toronto and aside from the year he replaced the a$$ clown that was BV he has just proven he doesn't win. The team played better for TL last year. RS will make a deadline trade probably, but it will involve secondary pieces for a BP arm maybe. Totally random here, but IMO Chavis is way undervalued on this site. The improvement he has made in one off-season is impressive. The power is legit and looks like he might not struggle to make contact. Good point on the Baltimore staff. Right now, I'd take our SP staff as a whole. After Tillman, it gets real thin real fast. Right now, they are hitting like we were in May, just bludgeoning everyone. They have to come down to earth one day.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 27, 2016 11:13:35 GMT -5
Farrell went 8 days without using Ross, one of the best relievers. If anything, what Guidas said was an understatement.
The easiest way to improve this team is by canning both Farrell and Willis.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2016 11:24:34 GMT -5
I don't like to blame Farrell for everything, and it's true that bad luck also has something to do with it. But when your bullpen is top five in WAR but middle of the pack in win probability added, some of it is on the manager for not using your best relievers in the highest-leverage situations. Part of that has been Uehara specifically underperforming. It's hard call on when to move someone like that out of a high-leverage role - you don't want to disregard several years of excellent work because he gave up a few extra homers over 25 innings. But yeah, the Red Sox haven't beaten their pythagorean record now in six years and it seems like more than bad luck. Anyhow, Teheran would improve the Red Sox and his team-friendly contract means there is some value there. Not Benintendi-level value but certainly worth anyone in the second tier, easily. I just don't buy the old argument about it being so hard to pitch in the AL East. The Yankees and Rays really stink at hitting. Baltimore and Toronto are tough, but they are going to be tough for any pitcher. Remember when Cole Hamels wouldn't be able to pitch in the AL? Good times, good times. And don't dare quote me his FIP. Hamels has been outperforming his peripherals since Jason Groome was in the second grade. I agree with a lot of what you said, but re: Teheran in the AL East, it's not the AL East as a collection of teams, to me, but the absolutely atrocious fit of an extreme fly ball pitcher who relies on pop-ups to beat his FIP. His style is just really bad for Fenway, Rogers, Camden, and Yankee Stadium. NY may not be able to hit now, but send them a soft-throwing RH fly ball pitcher? Ugh. The worst part is that, if the Sox did get him (and I could understand and grudgingly accept a trade from outside the top-5), he'd probably lose a fair amount of trade value after getting rocked. Then they'd ship him to FL or SF for close to nothing, and he'd be good again.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2016 11:29:16 GMT -5
I don't like to blame Farrell for everything, and it's true that bad luck also has something to do with it. But when your bullpen is top five in WAR but middle of the pack in win probability added, some of it is on the manager for not using your best relievers in the highest-leverage situations. Part of that has been Uehara specifically underperforming. It's hard call on when to move someone like that out of a high-leverage role - you don't want to disregard several years of excellent work because he gave up a few extra homers over 25 innings. But yeah, the Red Sox haven't beaten their pythagorean record now in six years and it seems like more than bad luck. Anyhow, Teheran would improve the Red Sox and his team-friendly contract means there is some value there. Not Benintendi-level value but certainly worth anyone in the second tier, easily. I just don't buy the old argument about it being so hard to pitch in the AL East. The Yankees and Rays really stink at hitting. Baltimore and Toronto are tough, but they are going to be tough for any pitcher. Remember when Cole Hamels wouldn't be able to pitch in the AL? Good times, good times. And don't dare quote me his FIP. Hamels has been outperforming his peripherals since Jason Groome was in the second grade. Also, Hamels is a career FIP-beater by a tenth of a point, not a full point. He's also riding an 87% strand rate. He's been fairly lucky (except with the HR).
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2016 11:33:43 GMT -5
He's outperformed his FIP by .3 this decade. He'll regress some to his mean, sure. His really, really valuable mean.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 27, 2016 11:38:52 GMT -5
He's outperformed his FIP by .3 this decade. He'll regress some to his mean, sure. His really, really valuable mean. Bogaerts plus Betts valuable? If you're not careful, you'll start sounding like Nick Cafardo hahaha!
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2016 11:45:55 GMT -5
No, but I argued before last year that I'd have done it for Swihart and Owens, for which people thought I was crazy. Of course, if they'd traded for Hamels, I don't know that the money would've been there to sign Price.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2016 12:07:47 GMT -5
No, but I argued before last year that I'd have done it for Swihart and Owens, for which people thought I was crazy. Of course, if they'd traded for Hamels, I don't know that the money would've been there to sign Price. I seem to recall that at one point this was the ask along with another piece - many theorized Margot, Of course with Amaro standing at !st base one night you'd think a reporter would try to confirm now. I doubt Amaro would be forthcoming but couldn't hurt to put forth a few packages and see what he says he would've (or did) say last year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2016 12:58:28 GMT -5
Can we acknowledge how absurd it is that anyone is already bailing on Eduardo Rodriguez as even being a potentially decent starter this year? The guy is 23 and missed all of spring training and has been back for all of 3 starts...little soon to be throwing him in the mix with Clay Buchholz, no? Honestly with Holt back in left, Eduardo finding his form a little bit, and the addition of one solid bullpen arm, there's no reason to believe that what we've been seeing recently will hold up for the rest of the year. It's a long season- every team has ups and downs, but if you take a step back, we still have the best offense in the league, we have Price, Wright and Porcello, who have all been pretty good, with the exception of Price's last start and his early season hiccups, and Rodriguez, who should round into form as the season goes on. If we can't find a viable number 5 guy out of Kelly, Clay, or the system (and admittedly, none of them look particularly appealing right now) then maybe we go to the trade market, but there's little reason to believe that we'd be dealing a top prospect to acquire a no. 5 starter. Kinda makes one wish we could undo the Miley deal right now, but life goes on I would say E-Rod is kind of the key to what happens next month. I think after he got injured, he returned and changed his delivery because it was uncomfortable for him to pitch the way he had normally pitched. The results were pretty awful so now he's going back to what he was before. The initial results were encouraging even though he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. He had the Ks going, his control was better and he wasn't that easy to hit. If the Red Sox get a very encouraging performance from him next month, good enough that makes you pretty confident that you'd want him to be one of your post-season starters, then the Sox are in a position where they really don't have to make a big move, and I think if that's the case, a lot of us will breathe a sigh of relief. I think we can agree that in a 7 game series, we'd be cool with sending David Price and Steven Wright out twice and don't have to think too much about it, even with Price's struggles last time. Porcello, I'd prefer to see once in that type of Series as I see him more as a #4 on a really good team, but he's hardly Al Nipper starting Game 4 of the World Series. He's a quality 4 or an OK 3 if it got down to it. If E-Rod can be that #3 guy that he resembled last season, that's a guy you'd want to ideally give two starts to in a 7 game series. And even better, his innings are down this year, so he could actually be at peak performance by time October rolls around. That would make a guy like him very dangerous - if he's right. In that scenario, all you need to do is upgrade the Buchholz/Kelly/O'Sullivan/Owens/Elias spot to something that is terrifying horrible. That places the bar much lower and insures that Moncada/Benintendi/Espinoza/Devers/Kopech and many others remain in the Red Sox organization. If E-Rod fails to convey that confidence going forward by his performance over the next month, then the Red Sox are in big trouble and they're probably going to lose Devers, Espinoza or Kopech, and other valuable prospects to get Teheran, as the Braves know that quality starting pitching is limited on the market, and with Vizcaino as part of the deal, they can pretty much name their price - somebody will meet in - and there's a good chance that somebody will be Dombrowski, who'll be listening pretty closely to Frank Wren. So either they get a #3 masquerading as a #1/#2 right now or they lower the bar to get somebody who doesn't totally suck. Big difference. E-Rod is the guy that I would think would sway that decision. We know it won't be Buchholz, who has been absolutely awful and it won't be Kelly, who will never be what we hoped he'd be either. One thing is for sure, if E-Rod struggles next month, then Dombrowski is looking at a scenario where he will be forced into a trade where the cost will be quite painful. I don't want him to pay that price even if E-Rod pitches like Buchholz. But with two last place finishes, Ortiz's final season going on, and a mandate from his bosses to get them to the playoffs, I have no doubt Dombrowski will make his move (and two of the big 4 will go). If E-Rod doesn't re-establish himself, they won't have the starting pitching (which has been pretty awful all season long) to go far in the playoffs even if they do get there as one of the Wild Cards. Please E-Rod, save us from having this happen!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2016 13:02:27 GMT -5
Farrell went 8 days without using Ross, one of the best relievers. If anything, what Guidas said was an understatement. The easiest way to improve this team is by canning both Farrell and Willis. Last season Lovullo had no bullpen and leaned heavily on Ross. And Ross responded and pitched well. How in the world does Farrell not use him consistently? Lovullo would normally have input on this, you'd think? I'd think if Lovullo was running the team, Ross wouldn't rot away in occasional meaningless games. As far as improving the pen, I'd like to see if Janssen has anything left. I'm dubious about his control, but perhaps Light should get a look as well. Layne's spot on the team makes no sense at this point. I would also think that Hembree should get a chance at higher leverage outings as well. Barnes at this point, should be long relief. He's actually not bad in 3 inning type stints. But Farrell uses him as his Koji/Tazawa backup. I don't like the way Farrell runs the bullpen either.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 27, 2016 13:14:35 GMT -5
Can we acknowledge how absurd it is that anyone is already bailing on Eduardo Rodriguez as even being a potentially decent starter this year? The guy is 23 and missed all of spring training and has been back for all of 3 starts...little soon to be throwing him in the mix with Clay Buchholz, no? Honestly with Holt back in left, Eduardo finding his form a little bit, and the addition of one solid bullpen arm, there's no reason to believe that what we've been seeing recently will hold up for the rest of the year. It's a long season- every team has ups and downs, but if you take a step back, we still have the best offense in the league, we have Price, Wright and Porcello, who have all been pretty good, with the exception of Price's last start and his early season hiccups, and Rodriguez, who should round into form as the season goes on. If we can't find a viable number 5 guy out of Kelly, Clay, or the system (and admittedly, none of them look particularly appealing right now) then maybe we go to the trade market, but there's little reason to believe that we'd be dealing a top prospect to acquire a no. 5 starter. Kinda makes one wish we could undo the Miley deal right now, but life goes on I would say E-Rod is kind of the key to what happens next month. I think after he got injured, he returned and changed his delivery because it was uncomfortable for him to pitch the way he had normally pitched. The results were pretty awful so now he's going back to what he was before. The initial results were encouraging even though he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. He had the Ks going, his control was better and he wasn't that easy to hit. If the Red Sox get a very encouraging performance from him next month, good enough that makes you pretty confident that you'd want him to be one of your post-season starters, then the Sox are in a position where they really don't have to make a big move, and I think if that's the case, a lot of us will breathe a sigh of relief. I think we can agree that in a 7 game series, we'd be cool with sending David Price and Steven Wright out twice and don't have to think too much about it, even with Price's struggles last time. Porcello, I'd prefer to see once in that type of Series as I see him more as a #4 on a really good team, but he's hardly Al Nipper starting Game 4 of the World Series. He's a quality 4 or an OK 3 if it got down to it. If E-Rod can be that #3 guy that he resembled last season, that's a guy you'd want to ideally give two starts to in a 7 game series. And even better, his innings are down this year, so he could actually be at peak performance by time October rolls around. That would make a guy like him very dangerous - if he's right. In that scenario, all you need to do is upgrade the Buchholz/Kelly/O'Sullivan/Owens/Elias spot to something that is terrifying horrible. That places the bar much lower and insures that Moncada/Benintendi/Espinoza/Devers/Kopech and many others remain in the Red Sox organization. If E-Rod fails to convey that confidence going forward by his performance over the next month, then the Red Sox are in big trouble and they're probably going to lose Devers, Espinoza or Kopech, and other valuable prospects to get Teheran, as the Braves know that quality starting pitching is limited on the market, and with Vizcaino as part of the deal, they can pretty much name their price - somebody will meet in - and there's a good chance that somebody will be Dombrowski, who'll be listening pretty closely to Frank Wren. So either they get a #3 masquerading as a #1/#2 right now or they lower the bar to get somebody who doesn't totally suck. Big difference. E-Rod is the guy that I would think would sway that decision. We know it won't be Buchholz, who has been absolutely awful and it won't be Kelly, who will never be what we hoped he'd be either. One thing is for sure, if E-Rod struggles next month, then Dombrowski is looking at a scenario where he will be forced into a trade where the cost will be quite painful. I don't want him to pay that price even if E-Rod pitches like Buchholz. But with two last place finishes, Ortiz's final season going on, and a mandate from his bosses to get them to the playoffs, I have no doubt Dombrowski will make his move (and two of the big 4 will go). If E-Rod doesn't re-establish himself, they won't have the starting pitching (which has been pretty awful all season long) to go far in the playoffs even if they do get there as one of the Wild Cards. Please E-Rod, save us from having this happen! Your 1st sentence says it all. If E-Rod spits the bit, we would have a huge problem. In Detroit, DD was under the pressure of his elderly owner who wanted a ring, no matter what. I am hoping (and praying) that he doesn't throw these top prospects even for a Gray type. He may becoming Anibal Sanchez soon. Trade for a "decent" #5 (Hellickson type) & LHH OF. Just don't trade your future for them.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 27, 2016 13:38:55 GMT -5
Other than possibly Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray, there really doesn’t appear to be any TOR starters available in the trade market, and it sure seems that this year is an extreme seller’s market, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Neither Miami nor Oakland are in a position where they feel like they need to deal Fernandez or Gray, they will almost certainly listen, as they should, but I don’t think either will even consider any deal that is not a massive overpay.
Short of acquiring Fernandez or Gray, I don’t think there is another starter available that can impact the Red Sox this year in a manner that would dramatically improve our chances of winning the World Series. To me if David Price doesn’t start pitching like David Freakin Price, and E-Rod doesn’t turn things around and least pitch like he did last year, nothing short of Fernandez or Gray is going to get the Sox to the World Series, and conversely if Price and E-Rod get it going, I don’t think that adding a middle of the rotation type pitcher is going to move the needle significantly for the Sox.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,897
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Post by nomar on Jun 27, 2016 13:44:00 GMT -5
"Sonny Gray and Jose Fernandez" is like saying "Rick Porcello and Clayton Kershaw".
I'd rather have Eickhoff than Gray and he'd probably come at a fraction of the price.
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Post by deepjohn on Jun 27, 2016 13:49:01 GMT -5
When I have a minute I'm going to put Teheran's game data in a spreadsheet, along with all the Sox starters. My guess is that Teheran will have the highest "confidence level" of giving up the fewest runs in any given game.* Of course, I don't propose that I have a large enough data set to prove anything. I'm just saying that's all I mean by "consistency". I feel like you and ericmvan may be using the word in another sense, which is also quite valid, while I'm thinking quite narrowly of: "consistency == confidence level". (And as a GM, consistency qua confidence level matters, IMHO.) ADD:*Technically, the definition I am thinking of is, "the probability that the value of a parameter falls within a specified range of values." As a corollary, I suspect the "confidence level" will be quite low that Buch or Erod will allow as few runs as Teheran in any given game. To do the latter, you would, as even just a reasonable approximation, overlay Teheran's batted ball charts over Fenway, and recalculate his numbers. Of course, even that's a poor approximation because of the difference in defensive play. But, as a known FIP-beater, it would be informative. Because, at the least, you could make some guesses as to how well his strategy/style would play in Fenway. My guess is, not very well. I understand your point regarding confidence level (which I interpret as consistent *quality*), however there are several issues here. The prime issue is Teheran in Fenway, and the AL East. I'm not disputing that Teheran is a consistently above-average pitcher in Turner...I'm saying that it's highly unlikely that he performs near that level in Boston. His performance against the AL in his career has been very bad. Being in a park where fly balls become doubles might even cause him to lose the one attribute that makes him a good pitcher. I personally think that it would, but I can't prove it. My point is that, as much confidence as we might have in his performance in Atlanta, there is massive ambiguity about how that performance will translate, which abrogates that confidence, if not on the basis of consistency but quality. Well, the overlays may not "prove" anything since flyballs are flukey, and you can't expect that his flyballs in the future will be the same as his flyballs in the past. But I superimposed an overlay showing that (as I see it) about 11 outs might have been hits, and 3 or 4 hits might have been outs. If there were 8 additional hits, it would not have affected his results much, since he's had 414 TBF (and some of the homers to left in Atlanta might have been wall balls in Fenway).
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Post by deepjohn on Jun 27, 2016 14:05:49 GMT -5
I would say E-Rod is kind of the key to what happens next month. I think after he got injured, he returned and changed his delivery because it was uncomfortable for him to pitch the way he had normally pitched. The results were pretty awful so now he's going back to what he was before. The initial results were encouraging even though he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings. He had the Ks going, his control was better and he wasn't that easy to hit. If the Red Sox get a very encouraging performance from him next month, good enough that makes you pretty confident that you'd want him to be one of your post-season starters, then the Sox are in a position where they really don't have to make a big move, and I think if that's the case, a lot of us will breathe a sigh of relief. I think we can agree that in a 7 game series, we'd be cool with sending David Price and Steven Wright out twice and don't have to think too much about it, even with Price's struggles last time. Porcello, I'd prefer to see once in that type of Series as I see him more as a #4 on a really good team, but he's hardly Al Nipper starting Game 4 of the World Series. He's a quality 4 or an OK 3 if it got down to it. If E-Rod can be that #3 guy that he resembled last season, that's a guy you'd want to ideally give two starts to in a 7 game series. And even better, his innings are down this year, so he could actually be at peak performance by time October rolls around. That would make a guy like him very dangerous - if he's right. In that scenario, all you need to do is upgrade the Buchholz/Kelly/O'Sullivan/Owens/Elias spot to something that is terrifying horrible. That places the bar much lower and insures that Moncada/Benintendi/Espinoza/Devers/Kopech and many others remain in the Red Sox organization. If E-Rod fails to convey that confidence going forward by his performance over the next month, then the Red Sox are in big trouble and they're probably going to lose Devers, Espinoza or Kopech, and other valuable prospects to get Teheran, as the Braves know that quality starting pitching is limited on the market, and with Vizcaino as part of the deal, they can pretty much name their price - somebody will meet in - and there's a good chance that somebody will be Dombrowski, who'll be listening pretty closely to Frank Wren. So either they get a #3 masquerading as a #1/#2 right now or they lower the bar to get somebody who doesn't totally suck. Big difference. E-Rod is the guy that I would think would sway that decision. We know it won't be Buchholz, who has been absolutely awful and it won't be Kelly, who will never be what we hoped he'd be either. One thing is for sure, if E-Rod struggles next month, then Dombrowski is looking at a scenario where he will be forced into a trade where the cost will be quite painful. I don't want him to pay that price even if E-Rod pitches like Buchholz. But with two last place finishes, Ortiz's final season going on, and a mandate from his bosses to get them to the playoffs, I have no doubt Dombrowski will make his move (and two of the big 4 will go). If E-Rod doesn't re-establish himself, they won't have the starting pitching (which has been pretty awful all season long) to go far in the playoffs even if they do get there as one of the Wild Cards. Please E-Rod, save us from having this happen! Your 1st sentence says it all. If E-Rod spits the bit, we would have a huge problem. In Detroit, DD was under the pressure of his elderly owner who wanted a ring, no matter what. I am hoping (and praying) that he doesn't throw these top prospects even for a Gray type. He may becoming Anibal Sanchez soon. Trade for a "decent" #5 (Hellickson type) & LHH OF. Just don't trade your future for them. I actually see it the other way around. If E-Rod spits the bit, then the team will be so bad that a trade for Teheran will not be enough to save it, and the team will be forced to punt. But if E-Rod shows enough that he can consistently hold down the 3-4-5 position with Wright and Porcello, then DDo will take out the big guns and trade for Teheran, giving the team two " consistent aces"* who should match up with anyone. And Wright would also be a consistent ace, if you didn't have to worry about his unearned runs. This year's Teheran is (so far) approximately Chris Sale, at about $5m per year. What a deal! What's the over/under for selling high on Benny Baseball anyone, as they (so far) did with Margot? *(My) Definition of "consistent ace": relatively high confidence level of throwing six innings and allowing 1 run.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Jun 27, 2016 14:36:07 GMT -5
I wouldn't even open trade talks about Benintendi until it involved Chris Sale, and then I'd still be reluctant to pull the trigger. If Atlanta turned Miller into Swanson/Inciarte/Blair then Teheran into Benintendi and others, I'd swear they're cheating somehow.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 27, 2016 15:23:02 GMT -5
“@jcmccaffrey: Workman will remain with Red Sox this week in Tampa working out. No announcement yet on when he’ll start a rehab assignment but he’s close.”
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2016 15:47:17 GMT -5
Other than possibly Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray, there really doesn’t appear to be any TOR starters available in the trade market, and it sure seems that this year is an extreme seller’s market, especially when it comes to starting pitching. Neither Miami nor Oakland are in a position where they feel like they need to deal Fernandez or Gray, they will almost certainly listen, as they should, but I don’t think either will even consider any deal that is not a massive overpay. Short of acquiring Fernandez or Gray, I don’t think there is another starter available that can impact the Red Sox this year in a manner that would dramatically improve our chances of winning the World Series. To me if David Price doesn’t start pitching like David Freakin Price, and E-Rod doesn’t turn things around and least pitch like he did last year, nothing short of Fernandez or Gray is going to get the Sox to the World Series, and conversely if Price and E-Rod get it going, I don’t think that adding a middle of the rotation type pitcher is going to move the needle significantly for the Sox. He's injured right now (what's new?), but he's been pitching like a TOR starter, and I'd say Rich Hill is very much available in a deal from Oakland. Beane will want a lot, but he won't fetch in a deal for Hill what it would cost for Gray (despite how lousy he's been), Fernandez (Miami is over .500 and well within striking distance - they're looking to add pitching, not subtract Fernandez), Teheran, or Sale (the White Sox are still in it - they're not trading him either). I actually think the fact that Rich Hill is injured could really work well considering that it's keeping his innings down. If/when he gets healthy again, I'm less worried about him hitting a wall fatigue-wise. He'd be my #1 target if I were Dombrowski. Hill should not cost you any of the top 5 prospects, although Beane I'm sure will ask.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Jun 27, 2016 15:51:53 GMT -5
What are your guys thoughts on acquiring Gio Gonzalez? MLBRumors suggested he might be on the chopping block when Strasburg comes back if Giolito pitches well. He may be a good buy-low candidate considering his FIP and history.
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Post by trotfan on Jun 27, 2016 16:31:14 GMT -5
I wouldn't even open trade talks about Benintendi until it involved Chris Sale, and then I'd still be reluctant to pull the trigger. If Atlanta turned Miller into Swanson/Inciarte/Blair then Teheran into Benintendi and others, I'd swear they're cheating somehow. I love Sale but would prefer Fernandez .
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