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Red Sox agree to trade for Joel Hanrahan
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Post by benfromma on Dec 21, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -5
I love our fans in what we give up to get Hanrahan. They think the Pirates are stupid and hopefully they are,but in the real world they know that Aceves is a head case and that Bailey has health issues. So they may have value in a pkg and they alone will not get a closer who even though our fans devalue has value. I do agree that we shouldn't overpay for a player that we may have for only a year but in order to get that year we must give up some value. So Morales would on the table and someone like Doubront off. A pkg like Morales, Bailey or Aceves and B minor leaguer would have to be offered for Hanrahan. If Hanrahan is added to our bullpen it becomes a strength of our team and maybe one of the better bullpens in the AL.
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Post by jdb on Dec 21, 2012 10:01:37 GMT -5
I just don't think any teams are going to give up to much value for a RP who is set to make 6-7 million and averaged over 5 BBs a game last year. Here is Busters blog this morning. insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8769110/grady-sizemore-joe-saunders-second-tier-free-agents-mlb• The red flag that some other teams see in Joel Hanrahan was the significant increase in walks allowed last season. After surrendering 16 walks in 68.2 innings in 2011, Hanrahan walked 36 in 59.2 innings in 2012, and there is some concern among rival evaluators that the diminished control is a sign of an arm issue -- something that obviously would be explored if Pittsburg arranges a trade. The Pirates have indicated to other teams they are open to trading their closer.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 10:52:25 GMT -5
Hanrahan would be what, the fourth best righty in the bullpen? I hate how the "proven closer" tag makes everyone go ga-ga over a bad pitcher. I was in favor of non-tendering Aceves, so if that's all it took, maybe I would do that deal, but there's no chance Doubront or Morales is on the table.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2012 11:25:32 GMT -5
It's hard to say if last year's high walk rate is a decline in control, or just statistical noise. He walked just a tad over 2 per nine innings the year before. It's hard to judge anything in 60-inning samples. His two-year peripherals and five-year peripherals run close enough to the same that I don't think it's fair to dismiss him because of a mediocre season. There's a solid chance that he's better than Bailey this year, and a very good chance that he's healthier.
The bigger issue I'd have with acquiring Hanrahan is the allocation of resources aspect. If the Red Sox were a bullpen upgrade away from being a championship contender, then sure, take a chance on him him. But the bullpen appears to be an area of real strength, at least on paper. The Red Sox have just have bigger holes, so unless the plan is to flip him to a team in need of a closer (Tigers or Brewers for example), using the resources they have to trade for Hanrahan just wouldn't make a ton of sense.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 11:33:07 GMT -5
Hanrahan is a guy with a career 4.35 BB/9 with only two seasons below 4.5 BB/9. Yes, those were great seasons, but his true talent is likely much closer to 2012 than 2011, given the rest of his career performance. He's also an extreme fly-ball pitcher (40.8% career GB). He's not a terrible reliever, but is far closer to an average one than one you should be giving up real assets for.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 21, 2012 11:38:20 GMT -5
Part of his career line is skewed by him walking nearly seven guys per nine when he came up as a starter. Since '08 when he moved to the pen his walk rate is right at 4.0, which is below average but not at the level where a reliever can't sustain success with it if he does other things well. In Hanrahan's case, he's struck out over 10 per nine innings since moving to the pen. You can carry a high walk rate when you're getting that many swings and misses.
If I was running a team that needed a good reliever, he'd be on my list, but he just doesn't match what the Red Sox need.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Dec 21, 2012 13:53:37 GMT -5
One of the more disappointing aspects here is that only last year Cherington identified his closer and put together a reasonably aggressive package to land him. Now, after a freak injury that doesn't seem to extend from previous injuries, and limited work done in a pretty terrible environment, he feels the need to replace Bailey, and in this instance, with a guy of the same or lesser talent and a year left on his contract.
Given the talent, the control, and the position with all the volatility it carries, if this is more than a check-in or isn't part of something larger, I really don't get it. I think the best you can hope for beyond a somewhat proven closer is to stockpile your bullpen with talent, and, regardless of individual performances last year, you'd had to say they certainly have that, with some intriguing arms hovering in Pawtucket. They're betting on Lester, Buchh, and Doubront taking steps foward and realizing their talents, why not the bullpen too?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 21, 2012 14:03:44 GMT -5
One of the more disappointing aspects here is that only last year Cherington identified his closer and put together a reasonably aggressive package to land him. Now, after a freak injury that doesn't seem to extend from previous injuries, and limited work done in a pretty terrible environment, he feels the need to replace Bailey, and in this instance, with a guy of the same or lesser talent and a year left on his contract. Given the talent, the control, and the position with all the volatility it carries, if this is more than a check-in or isn't part of something larger, I really don't get it. I think the best you can hope for beyond a somewhat proven closer is to stockpile your bullpen with talent, and, regardless of individual performances last year, you'd had to say they certainly have that, with some intriguing arms hovering in Pawtucket. They're betting on Lester, Buchh, and Doubront taking steps foward and realizing their talents, why not the bullpen too? True. Cherington surrendered Lowrie, Reddick, and Miles Head to obtain Melancon and Bailey. I'd hate to see him surrender more talent to acquire Hanrahan, who not only walked too many guys, but also gave up his share of homers as well. Again, I'm not a huge FIP guy necessarily, but the last thing you want your closer to do is walk guys and/or be homerun prone - especially when he walks guys. I read that the Pirates are looking at Iglesias, but at this point, I wouldn't even deal Iglesias for a rental like Hanrahan. Even if he had a good year, you wouldn't give him a qualifying offer as a closer, so he'd walk and Iglesias is under another team's control for six years. I'm not even certain I'd deal him for Aceves. The thing about Aceves is that he would be very valuable in a constant sixth and 7th inning role - as opposed to how he was used last year. I'd rather see the Sox give Bailey another shot at closer, and if he cannot come thru, Tazawa would merit a long look. And it's not out of the question that Melancon cannot be much better than he was last year. I think the Sox have better options that to spend talent/money on a cardiac closer. I've already seen Heathcliffe Slocumb and I even remember Mark Clear. All I can say is no thank you to Hanrahan.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 21, 2012 14:08:27 GMT -5
One of the more disappointing aspects here is that only last year Cherington identified his closer and put together a reasonably aggressive package to land him. Now, after a freak injury that doesn't seem to extend from previous injuries, and limited work done in a pretty terrible environment, he feels the need to replace Bailey, and in this instance, with a guy of the same or lesser talent and a year left on his contract. Well, apparently he doesn't feel that much need because this rumor has gained no traction whatsoever since it was initially reported.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 15:10:46 GMT -5
Hypothetical: Jose Iglesias and miscellaneous parts for Hanrahan and Garrett Jones. Would you make that deal?
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Post by benfromma on Dec 21, 2012 15:34:07 GMT -5
yes, fills two holes
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sdl
Rookie
Who the hell is Stan Papi?
Posts: 135
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Post by sdl on Dec 21, 2012 17:01:41 GMT -5
"Hey Hanrahan! You're wife ............" "I know, I know - she's a .........." HOLY CRAP! I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE THAT THINKS THIS EVERY TIME I HEAR HIS NAME? elguapo, I love you. How much you want to bet he's heard that a few times from a drunk in the stands.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 21, 2012 17:07:23 GMT -5
That's what she said. I like that deal, figuring Iglesias can be a quality SS at an affordable salary for years.
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Post by jioh on Dec 21, 2012 19:55:28 GMT -5
Hypothetical: Jose Iglesias and miscellaneous parts for Hanrahan and Garrett Jones. Would you make that deal? Why would the Pirates trade their closer and a first baseman who hit 27 hrs for a SS who maybe can't hit and miscellaneous parts?
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 20:20:32 GMT -5
John Perrotto @jperrotto Am told #Pirates now targeting #Dodgers SS Dee Gordon and #RedSox SS Jose Iglesias in Hanrahan trade talks now that Liriano is fold.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 21, 2012 20:33:25 GMT -5
Why would the Pirates trade their closer and a first baseman who hit 27 hrs for a SS who maybe can't hit and miscellaneous parts? Why would the Red Sox trade their SS of the future with 6-7 years of cheap control for one year of an above-average reliever and a 31-year-old role player who averaged sub-.800 OPS & 1.5 fWAR in the peak of his career? add - I'm being argumentative, of course - the whole thing depends on what one thinks of Iglesias
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Post by mjammz on Dec 21, 2012 20:44:08 GMT -5
John Perrotto @jperrotto Am told #Pirates now targeting #Dodgers SS Dee Gordon and #RedSox SS Jose Iglesias in Hanrahan trade talks now that Liriano is fold. As the centerpieces of a deal, I would do that. Maybe the Pirates throw in another player or prospect. The Pirates and Red Sox have been active trading partners the past few years, so they know each other well.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 21, 2012 20:48:37 GMT -5
Hypothetical: Jose Iglesias and miscellaneous parts for Hanrahan and Garrett Jones. Would you make that deal? Why would the Pirates trade their closer and a first baseman who hit 27 hrs for a SS who maybe can't hit and miscellaneous parts? Not sure I see the draw for Jones. 2013 will be his age 32 season and for the most part he's been the picture of mediocrity over his career. Would much rather see Logan Morrison, Smoak or someone who is young enough to have the chance to turn into something long term. 1B is lacking in the system, so if we're down to the Garrett Jones' of the world, that's a problem.
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Post by jmei on Dec 21, 2012 20:55:16 GMT -5
Jones is an ideal bench player-- he's left-handed and hits righties well and is passable defensively at 1B and LF/RF. He also costs only $2.5m in 2012 and will be under team control via arbitration-eligibility through 2015, which limits both cost and risk. He's probably a below-average 1B given weak walk rates and bad defense, but as a platoon outfielder and bench player, it's hard to draw 'em up better, at least for the 2013 Red Sox.
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 21, 2012 21:38:55 GMT -5
Wait just a minute.
As I understand it the only thing that we know is that the Sox and Pirates have talked about Hanrahan and an exchange while the Pirates are engaged similarly with other clubs. The Sox (maybe) have offered Aceves while the Pirates (maybe) covet Doubront ...which is not going to happen. Is there more substance to the story? Where does this Iglesias stuff come from?
Regardless, to me Iglesias is the perfect NL shortstop...Great fielder and what NL club cares what he hits within reason. I think "Iggy" and Aceves are extremely vulnerable in any proposed trade....the latter by virtue of attitude which the Sox have been aggressively addressing and the former by failure to show that he can be an every day AL shortstop..especially in the AL East.
Now Bailey is SUSPECT so it makes perfect sense for the Sox to copper their bets. Bailey, when healthy, has mostly pitched well. But what assurance do the Sox have that he will be healthy (and remain that way) and/or that his performance will be at least satisfactory? The Sox need an alternative as fallback or competition. I believe that they have termed their off-season quest to build "quality depth". Hanrahan fits that bill.
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Post by ocdss on Dec 21, 2012 22:05:57 GMT -5
OK, doesn't this... It's hard to say if last year's high walk rate is a decline in control, or just statistical noise. He walked just a tad over 2 per nine innings the year before. It's hard to judge anything in 60-inning samples. ... contradict the reasoning here: The bigger issue I'd have with acquiring Hanrahan is the allocation of resources aspect. If the Red Sox were a bullpen upgrade away from being a championship contender, then sure, take a chance on him him. But the bullpen appears to be an area of real strength, at least on paper. . If relievers are inherently risky because of the small performance samples, then how does it not follow that any construction of said bullpen is also still inherently risky/ variable, even if it looks strong on paper? Would not the logical approach to bullpen building be to constantly try to improve the quality of the arms in the 'pen so you're working with a broader base to talent? It's not like it's even a bad thing if everyone plays up to or exceeds their expected level... On the Sox this is not an issue since the money won't break the bank. All that matters is what they give up in return (and let's face it, the Sox haven't sent anyone they'd miss to the Pirates in awhile).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 21, 2012 22:27:27 GMT -5
Where does this Iglesias stuff come from? The tweet copied above that says the Pirates have targeted Iglesias.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 21, 2012 23:16:25 GMT -5
Where does this Iglesias stuff come from? The tweet copied above that says the Pirates have targeted Iglesias. If the Red Sox were going to trade Iglesias to the Pirates, I'd prefer something from their farm system which has tons of pitching depth (obviously not Cole).
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 22, 2012 1:12:54 GMT -5
OK, doesn't this... It's hard to say if last year's high walk rate is a decline in control, or just statistical noise. He walked just a tad over 2 per nine innings the year before. It's hard to judge anything in 60-inning samples. ... contradict the reasoning here: The bigger issue I'd have with acquiring Hanrahan is the allocation of resources aspect. If the Red Sox were a bullpen upgrade away from being a championship contender, then sure, take a chance on him him. But the bullpen appears to be an area of real strength, at least on paper. . If relievers are inherently risky because of the small performance samples, then how does it not follow that any construction of said bullpen is also still inherently risky/ variable, even if it looks strong on paper? Would not the logical approach to bullpen building be to constantly try to improve the quality of the arms in the 'pen so you're working with a broader base to talent? It's not like it's even a bad thing if everyone plays up to or exceeds their expected level... On the Sox this is not an issue since the money won't break the bank. All that matters is what they give up in return (and let's face it, the Sox haven't sent anyone they'd miss to the Pirates in awhile). I don't see it as a direct contradiction. There is certainly an inherent risk in building a bullpen as you described. However, as I see it, the best way to limit that risk is to ignore small sample variations, put some emphasis on durability, and (as you said) build a broad base of talent. If all else were equal, I'd prefer to have Hanrahan over Bailey, even though Bailey has the superior pure stuff. My point (which I perhaps didn't explain very well, so your criticism is fair) isn't that the Red Sox shouldn't try to improve their bullpen. It's that the Red Sox have already done a fairly good job with their current bullpen construction, doing pretty much exactly what you said. They've built a broad base of talent, with Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Morales, Miller, Breslow, Melancon, and possibly Aceves at the major league level, with Wilson, Mortensen, Carpenter waiting in the wings. The marginal cost of making an improvement -- which might, because of the variance associated with relief pitcher, not turn into a short-term improvement at all -- would be better spent on one of the clear weaknesses of the team. To put it into more concrete terms, I'd be unhappy to see the Red Sox trade Iglesias to solidify the bullpen when the starting rotation and outfield need help.
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Post by jioh on Dec 22, 2012 8:27:18 GMT -5
The tweet copied above that says the Pirates have targeted Iglesias. If the Red Sox were going to trade Iglesias to the Pirates, I'd prefer something from their farm system which has tons of pitching depth (obviously not Cole). Travis Snider? But has never played 1b and is only 6'
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