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possible Red Sox and Braves blockbuster
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 28, 2016 12:15:07 GMT -5
I do not think you get Teheran with out giving up a player from the active roster. Shaw? Shaw would be interesting with some lower piece(s) for Teheran. I believe we could backfill corner IF fairly easily. Marco Hernandez wouldn't embarrass himself there. TBO, I don't think Chris Marrero would be a huge downgrade @ 1B in case Hanley goes down. (Shaw--Owens--Chavis).
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 13:48:42 GMT -5
Dombrowski has a history of trading elite prospects for elite players. But he isn't a guy who overpays for mediocre guys to plug holes. If he trades the core four, I'm confident it won't be for a guy like Teheran who is more a mid-rotation type.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2016 14:09:54 GMT -5
Dombrowski has a history of trading elite prospects for elite players. But he isn't a guy who overpays for mediocre guys to plug holes. If he trades the core four, I'm confident it won't be for a guy like Teheran who is more a mid-rotation type. He goes after all types in my opinion. He went after Sanchez and Fister in Detroit, not guys I would call elite. He goes after best available players and it doesn't look like any elite pitchers will be available this year. Quick question if Miley is a #3 how is Teheran mid rotation type?
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 14:35:57 GMT -5
The Tigers didn't give up a top 100 prospect (or a young player with comparable value) in the Fister trade. They did give up Justin Turner (who was BA #29) in the Sanchez trade, but the real draw in the deal for the Tigers was Omar Infante, who has put up 2.2 fWAR in the first half that year and had another cheap year of team control the following year.
Since 2014: Miley: 99 xFIP- Teheran: 103 xFIP-
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Post by byunghyunjim on Jun 28, 2016 19:55:35 GMT -5
Since 2014: Miley: 99 xFIP- Teheran: 103 xFIP- Oh okay
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2016 20:08:36 GMT -5
If DD made a deal like the Marlins trade, this board would want him fired. He will trade elite prospects for non elite players, though he does prefer trading for elite ones.
On to xFIP- it's funny because when you explained to me why Miley was a #3, which included link to article about #3 pitchers you never once used an advance stat. It was all about innings, starts and league average ERA.
According to xFIP- Teheran is only 2% better than a average pitcher this year. I find that very hard to believe. He has pitched 106 innings, giving up 70 hits, 99Ks, 24 BB, 2.46 ERA, and .89 WHIP. The big worry is 13 HR though.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 28, 2016 20:38:24 GMT -5
If DD made a deal like the Marlins trade, this board would want him fired. He will trade elite prospects for non elite players, though he does prefer trading for elite ones. On to xFIP- it's funny because when you explained to me why Miley was a #3, which included link to article about #3 pitchers you never once used an advance stat. It was all about innings, starts and league average ERA. According to xFIP- Teheran is only 2% better than a average pitcher this year. I find that very hard to believe. He has pitched 106 innings, giving up 70 hits, 99Ks, 24 BB, 2.46 ERA, and .89 WHIP. The big worry is 13 HR though. You have to consider the parks he pitches in and the division and league he pitches in. So it's not that hard to believe. Any pitchers in the NL East are suspect. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the entire league. The Nationals are 14th and the Marlins are 20th.
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Post by byunghyunjim on Jun 28, 2016 20:45:43 GMT -5
Pure lunacy going on in here now
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on Jun 28, 2016 21:00:56 GMT -5
I do not think you get Teheran with out giving up a player from the active roster. Shaw? Shaw would be interesting with some lower piece(s) for Teheran. I believe we could backfill corner IF fairly easily. Marco Hernandez wouldn't embarrass himself there. TBO, I don't think Chris Marrero would be a huge downgrade @ 1B in case Hanley goes down. (Shaw--Owens--Chavis). As another sox fan living in NC, I am deeply embarrassed by how little thought you are giving to the endless series of implausible claims you are making. I literally am worried that people I went to school with might read you and think it is me. I appreciate your interest and enthusiasm, but it's actually possibly to type up a post and then before hitting "create post" think for a second whether what you're saying make any sense. Sometimes writing half as much is twice as good.
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Post by jmei on Jun 28, 2016 21:14:57 GMT -5
On to xFIP- it's funny because when you explained to me why Miley was a #3, which included link to article about #3 pitchers you never once used an advance stat. It was all about innings, starts and league average ERA. According to xFIP- Teheran is only 2% better than a average pitcher this year. I find that very hard to believe. He has pitched 106 innings, giving up 70 hits, 99Ks, 24 BB, 2.46 ERA, and .89 WHIP. The big worry is 13 HR though. I've consistently cited to Miley's advanced stats (see, e.g., here). Teheran has consistently posted mediocre walk/strikeout/ground ball rates, and his success comes via suppressing hits on balls in play. That's a tenuous skill set to rely on.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 28, 2016 21:44:19 GMT -5
Of all the ridiculous things I've read on these forums during the Red Sox recent swoon, the idea that jmei never referenced Wade Miley's xFIP is by far the most outlandish. It's like claiming the Romans didn't grow grapes or that beef doesn't come from cows or something.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2016 22:19:47 GMT -5
If DD made a deal like the Marlins trade, this board would want him fired. He will trade elite prospects for non elite players, though he does prefer trading for elite ones. On to xFIP- it's funny because when you explained to me why Miley was a #3, which included link to article about #3 pitchers you never once used an advance stat. It was all about innings, starts and league average ERA. According to xFIP- Teheran is only 2% better than a average pitcher this year. I find that very hard to believe. He has pitched 106 innings, giving up 70 hits, 99Ks, 24 BB, 2.46 ERA, and .89 WHIP. The big worry is 13 HR though. You have to consider the parks he pitches in and the division and league he pitches in. So it's not that hard to believe. Any pitchers in the NL East are suspect. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the entire league. The Nationals are 14th and the Marlins are 20th. XFIP- only accounts for park and league, your Division isn't taken into account. MLB average ERA is currently 4.18, with national league and American league being almost the same (4.1 2 to 4.24). So Teherans home park saves him 1.6 runs on his ERA. That's a 40% increase and doesn't make sense when looking at deep John's breakdown of hits Teheran has allowed and outs this year. I don't buy it, would make a little more sense if Division was taken into account.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 28, 2016 22:36:15 GMT -5
On to xFIP- it's funny because when you explained to me why Miley was a #3, which included link to article about #3 pitchers you never once used an advance stat. It was all about innings, starts and league average ERA. According to xFIP- Teheran is only 2% better than a average pitcher this year. I find that very hard to believe. He has pitched 106 innings, giving up 70 hits, 99Ks, 24 BB, 2.46 ERA, and .89 WHIP. The big worry is 13 HR though. I've consistently cited to Miley's advanced stats (see, e.g., here). Teheran has consistently posted mediocre walk/strikeout/ground ball rates, and his success comes via suppressing hits on balls in play. That's a tenuous skill set to rely on. We've had that discussion like 3 times and that wasn't the one I was referring, but I was wrong in another post you sure did. Teheran also has out performed his xFIP for 4 straight years. At what point do you have to think that xFIP just doesn't predict a pitcher like Teheran that well?
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Post by larrycook on Jun 29, 2016 0:06:41 GMT -5
Norris starting to throw well for Atlanta.
Seems we could get him for some non prime time prospects.
He has to be better than our current pool of candidates.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2016 6:23:45 GMT -5
You have to consider the parks he pitches in and the division and league he pitches in. So it's not that hard to believe. Any pitchers in the NL East are suspect. The Braves, Phillies and Mets are the 3 lowest scoring teams in the entire league. The Nationals are 14th and the Marlins are 20th. XFIP- only accounts for park and league, your Division isn't taken into account. MLB average ERA is currently 4.18, with national league and American league being almost the same (4.1 2 to 4.24). So Teherans home park saves him 1.6 runs on his ERA. That's a 40% increase and doesn't make sense when looking at deep John's breakdown of hits Teheran has allowed and outs this year. I don't buy it, would make a little more sense if Division was taken into account. I wasn't really talking about xFIP-. I was talking about how he shouldn't be considered unless the price is cheaper than expected. There should be some kind of stat that adjusts for division. Somewhere around 2/3rds of games a team plays is against its own division. Going from the NL East to AL East is a bigger adjustment than most moves.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,796
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Post by nomar on Jun 29, 2016 8:26:58 GMT -5
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jun 29, 2016 10:10:24 GMT -5
We've had that discussion like 3 times and that wasn't the one I was referring, but I was wrong in another post you sure did. Teheran also has out performed his xFIP for 4 straight years. At what point do you have to think that xFIP just doesn't predict a pitcher like Teheran that well?Last season he had a 4.04 ERA and 4.19 xFIP so it was pretty close. This season he's allowing a .209 BABIP, the best he's ever done over a full season is .267, and that year was sandwiched between two seasons at .288 each. He's also sporting his best strand rate ever. Just last season he didn't outperform his peripherals, and he looked like a bottom of the rotation guy. It's not like he put up a 4+ ERA and had bad luck, he earned that. The question is how much is he earning this very good season, and how predictive is it going forward. It's reasonable to think in the short term he might continue to outperform his peripherals, but it's not reasonable to think it'll happen to the degree he's experiencing this season, and certainly not reasonable to think he will continue to do this indefinitely. Matt Cain used to be the poster boy for outperforming his peripherals, he consistently did it for eight seasons, but now he has four consecutive seasons of having an ERA higher than his xFIP.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 29, 2016 10:45:17 GMT -5
Shaw would be interesting with some lower piece(s) for Teheran. I believe we could backfill corner IF fairly easily. Marco Hernandez wouldn't embarrass himself there. TBO, I don't think Chris Marrero would be a huge downgrade @ 1B in case Hanley goes down. (Shaw--Owens--Chavis). As another sox fan living in NC, I am deeply embarrassed by how little thought you are giving to the endless series of implausible claims you are making. I literally am worried that people I went to school with might read you and think it is me. I appreciate your interest and enthusiasm, but it's actually possibly to type up a post and then before hitting "create post" think for a second whether what you're saying make any sense. Sometimes writing half as much is twice as good. Sorry man. With the Shaw thing, I think he has some value. I know he had a good night last night, I just don't see it sustainable & that he has holes in his swing. Personally I would consider moving him with pieces to get Teheran as a 4th starter. If you don't agree with that, ok. I just don't believe it will take our top prospects to gets him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 29, 2016 10:50:16 GMT -5
As another sox fan living in NC, I am deeply embarrassed by how little thought you are giving to the endless series of implausible claims you are making. I literally am worried that people I went to school with might read you and think it is me. I appreciate your interest and enthusiasm, but it's actually possibly to type up a post and then before hitting "create post" think for a second whether what you're saying make any sense. Sometimes writing half as much is twice as good. Sorry man. With the Shaw thing, I think he has some value. I know he had a good night last night, I just don't see it sustainable & that he has holes in his swing. Personally I would consider moving him with pieces to get Teheran as a 4th starter. If you don't agree with that, ok. I just don't believe it will take our top prospects to gets him. And then you need a starting 3B/1B so add that to the cost of Tehran.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jun 29, 2016 11:21:02 GMT -5
It does leave a hole at CI. I know Marco Hernandez is not Shaw. He has hit .330 in Pawtucket. IMO himself and Teheran as your #4 for a few years is better than Shaw & Elias/Buch/Owens or whoever as your #4. Holt is coming back & can spell either 1st or 3rd the rest of the year. Next year Moncada & Travis should be ready.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 29, 2016 12:13:14 GMT -5
I do not think you get Teheran with out giving up a player from the active roster. Shaw? Yeah the Braves probably care more about winning today than in 3-5 years. Eh, it's an idea. Shaw is only in his first full season. He has plenty of control left. He could also be flipped for prospects if the Braves wanted to take that route. I'm guessing that they see themselves back to .500 in two years, once Albies, Swanson, etc are up at the MLB level and have a little experience. Shaw would still be cheap and in his prime then. Of course, trading him would create a giant hole on the Sox that they're already having some trouble with (no LF=no Holt super utility=no backup 3b).
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Post by telson13 on Jun 29, 2016 12:23:45 GMT -5
Also, for all of the Teheran talk re: his outperformance of FIP/xFIP, I'll leave this here again: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-julio-teheran-an-ace/Spoiler alert: he's not that good, and would be a disaster with Fenway as his home park and frequent visits to the launching pads of Camden and Rogers, and the short porch of the Stadium.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2016 12:28:01 GMT -5
We've had that discussion like 3 times and that wasn't the one I was referring, but I was wrong in another post you sure did. Teheran also has out performed his xFIP for 4 straight years. At what point do you have to think that xFIP just doesn't predict a pitcher like Teheran that well?Last season he had a 4.04 ERA and 4.19 xFIP so it was pretty close. This season he's allowing a .209 BABIP, the best he's ever done over a full season is .267, and that year was sandwiched between two seasons at .288 each. He's also sporting his best strand rate ever. Just last season he didn't outperform his peripherals, and he looked like a bottom of the rotation guy. It's not like he put up a 4+ ERA and had bad luck, he earned that. The question is how much is he earning this very good season, and how predictive is it going forward. It's reasonable to think in the short term he might continue to outperform his peripherals, but it's not reasonable to think it'll happen to the degree he's experiencing this season, and certainly not reasonable to think he will continue to do this indefinitely. Matt Cain used to be the poster boy for outperforming his peripherals, he consistently did it for eight seasons, but now he has four consecutive seasons of having an ERA higher than his xFIP. Last 4 years Teherans era is 3.15 and xFIP is 3.92, only last year is it even close. Look at Porcello who has under performed for what 4 straight years. Sonny Gray who before injury out performed for 2 and 1/2 years to start career. Now in very limited sample size I would argue that we can expect Teheran to out perform his peripherals in future seasons, just like I will predict Porcello to under perform. With Cain you help prove my point for 8 straight years he out performed his peripherals. He then started to breakdown and became a different pitcher and now under performs for 4 straight years. Hence why I don't trust advanced stats like xFIP and xFIP-. In general they can be useful, but shouldn't be used as an end all like many people like to use them.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jun 29, 2016 12:44:33 GMT -5
Also, for all of the Teheran talk re: his outperformance of FIP/xFIP, I'll leave this here again: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-julio-teheran-an-ace/Spoiler alert: he's not that good, and would be a disaster with Fenway as his home park and frequent visits to the launching pads of Camden and Rogers, and the short porch of the Stadium. That article says chances are Teheran will most likely continue to out perform his peripherals for next 3 years. I don't think anyone on this board thinks we would be getting an ACE. Not sure how you think that article says he's not that good, just that's he's not an ACE.
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Post by jmei on Jun 29, 2016 12:50:12 GMT -5
The article says he'd be about a 4.00 ERA guy in the AL and describes him as "a quality mid-rotation arm." This whole line of discussion started when you reacted to my calling Teheran a "mid-rotation arm."
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