ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 5, 2016 10:22:53 GMT -5
We lose this game without a 4th/5th starter as GOOD as Pomeranz. Yeah, he walked too many. Yeah, it wasn't a gem. However, hanging on to Espinoza, means we lose games like this often between now and October 1st.....and in this race, it means we miss the playoffs and send Papi into retirement with a whimper. Sometimes you pitch to a 6.30 FIP and you get a 3.00 ERA return. It happens because it's baseball. It's why his outing last night was reminiscent of Dice-K. Dice-K, in his first year with the Sox, won as many as four games when the offense scored 2 or less runs. Guys who walk a lot of batters relative to their percentage of strikes thrown tend to have lower BABIPs. They're pitching to the edges of the zone in order to induce weak contact. FIP starts to fail a bit for these guys. Pomeranz currently has an .105 BB rate (from FG) versus an expected .085 based on his Str%, a difference which ranks him in the top 6% of SP (2010-2015). Last night's game was just an extreme example.
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Post by tjb21 on Aug 5, 2016 10:26:39 GMT -5
This team will be the end of me.
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Post by bosox81 on Aug 5, 2016 10:31:43 GMT -5
Sometimes you pitch to a 6.30 FIP and you get a 3.00 ERA return. It happens because it's baseball. It's why his outing last night was reminiscent of Dice-K. Dice-K, in his first year with the Sox, won as many as four games when the offense scored 2 or less runs. Guys who walk a lot of batters relative to their percentage of strikes thrown tend to have lower BABIPs. They're pitching to the edges of the zone in order to induce weak contact. FIP starts to fail a bit for these guys. Pomeranz currently has an .105 BB rate (from FG) versus an expected .085 based on his Str%, a difference which ranks him in the top 6% of SP (2010-2015). Last night's game was just an extreme example. I'm not going to argue that Pomeranz will generally outperform his peripherals due to a low BABIP. But I was responding to teh assertion that we would've lost this game without someone as "GOOD" as Pomeranz. Even Dice-K had better games results-wise than this one.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 5, 2016 13:01:16 GMT -5
Well, if you have a lot of games like this one it sure is bad for you as pitcher, but as a single game where you didn't have it and walked everyone and yet got away with 6 strong innings? I'll take it everytime.
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 5, 2016 13:11:35 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 5, 2016 21:29:10 GMT -5
The last two games were, again, close as the first had been. Lots of reasons for this, but they've been laid out quite well. Safeco is not Fenway is a big one. None of the West coast parks are big run producers at night, for reasons we've discussed in the past.
Iwakuma subdued the offense as he's done to many other teams over the last few years. Some of the commentary about the Sox not being able to go up against bad pitching is just completely off the mark. Look at Seattle's record, and read jmei's link to Diaz' numbers. Inform yourselves, people. It's also silly to expect the offense to score 5+ runs a game on an everyday basis. That isn't going to happen.
Interesting to read that there are questions about Pomeranz' health. He has very good stuff as 9+ Ks/9 testifies, and he generates a lot of swings and misses. That's what I saw last evening. What won't do is the walking a batter for every one of those strikeouts. He's also going to have prepare for teams like the Mariners. I don't want to beat this to death, but that's a good lineup with a lot of patient hitters. Maybe it's the expanded pitch mix he's developed and gaining command of that, or maybe it's the injury. But he's going to have to be able to find the black more.
Those of you who criticize Farrell endlessly will, of course, want to praise him for the last game in the series. The rotation of relievers was outstanding. That's probably what won the game.
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