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Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 25, 2016 9:59:57 GMT -5
I also like EE. Ortiz makes the entire offense better. You can't shuffle everyone around & believe we'll be just as good. It has taken every bit of our offense to be tied for 1st. Beltran is done. He has hit poorly as soon as he's been taken out of Yankee Stadium. Just because he has a good pedigree, does not make him good NOW. That's like when we signed Smoltz & all the accolades he had. At a point every player runs out of gas.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2016 10:24:26 GMT -5
The Sox will have about 35 home runs and 120 RBIs to make up for. No way they go into 2017 without picking up a DH over the winter. Of the four (Encarnacion, Trumbo, Bautista, and Beltran) I'll take Encarnacion by a mile. He has a track record the last 4-5 years of producing the kind of numbers Ortiz is putting up this year. I would spend the dough and make it happen. You do realize there will be a warm body filling in at that position and they will surely hit 15-20 homeruns and have about 70 RBI's so the difference is not nearly as big as you indicate. Besides HR's and RBI's are not the end all be all. A full year of Benintendi should improve our overall LF production as well. Our depth should be better as well. And there are plenty of ways to win, we have scored more than 3% of the runs compared to the closest runner-up and over 11% more than the closest AL team, so Offense is not an issue. Our SP was mediocre at best until August and appears to have hit it's stride and again the depth should be better next yr. Buccholz has an option that if he pitches close to what he has done recently will be picked up and give us 6 viable starters next yr. E-Rod will likely provide more starts next year and has a chance to have his breakout season many thought would happen this year. Plus we should have Johnson ready from April 1st and Owens will have additional time to improve and possibly be our8th man and Roenis Elias would be the 9th man. I'd spend lavishly on short term deals to a top relief pitcher or two, which by default will make JF a smarter manager.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 25, 2016 10:40:12 GMT -5
Encarnacion: 142 wRC+ Braun: 142 wRC+ EE is a year older, can't field and not very good on the base path, he'll also cost a draft pick. Braun can field a little, is a much better base runner and the remaining of his contract will certainly be lower than the one Encarnacion will have. He'll also won't cost a 1st rounder talent level prospect. PS: Trumbo is aweful.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 25, 2016 10:42:54 GMT -5
I'd go with Beltran, who I think fits the Red Sox' needs better in 2017, but that would be assuming a 1 year deal, which might not be realistic - he could be in line for 2 years even at his advanced age. If he was amenable to one year, he'd fit their needs better than EE. The Red Sox only have a short-term need for a DH bat. In 2017, the year begins with Sam Travis still rehabbing and Moncada not major league ready, at least defensively. At some point, say June I could see Moncada seizing 3b from Travis Shaw or even Pablo Sandoval, if Shaw is dealt for bullpen help or whatever. By late July or early August I could see Sam Travis forcing his way up to Boston either displacing Hanley to DH or at least limiting his ABs if Beltran hasn't been dealt. By 2018, Hanley is free to DH for perhaps his final season with the Sox, Travis is at 1b and Moncada is established at 3b. Beltran, Shaw, and maybe even Sandoval would be long gone. I personally don't think Sandoval hits well enough to be a DH, so despite his enormous contract I don't see the Red Sox going that route. If the Sox decide to cash in Travis Shaw this winter, then yes, I could see Sandoval starting the season at 3b until Moncada forces him out. Beltran is also a guy who can bat lefty in the middle of the order which would fit better than jamming the top of the lineup with four righties if the Sox were to sign Encarnacion to go with Mookie, Xander and Pedroia. Also if the Sox would have to give up a draft pick for signing EE, it could be more desirable to not have to do the same for Beltran. The 2016 draft is supposed to be strong and the Sox need to rebuild the lower level of the minors, so it's important that they get that 1st round pick, even if they're picking 20-something. And of course, not committing to a DH makes it easier for them to pick up a big contract come the end of 2018 or commit to Mookie and/or Xander. I agree with most of this except the Sam Travis point, there is no need for the Sox to rush him with Hanley on board ( and Shaw and Moncado in the mix as you noted) therefore don't be surprised if he's not up until the September call-ups next year. Certainly how well he recovers from injury will play a roll in this too. Other than that minor point I agree with the rest.
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Post by jdb on Aug 25, 2016 11:22:09 GMT -5
I just don't know about any of the big ticket guys. I would maybe check Beltran before them and would look at Brand Moss on a one year deal. Let him and Hanley man 1B/DH and be able to rotate more guys in and out of the DH spot depending on match ups.
Also I don't think we have a $13 million swing man but Bucholtz could get you( 3rd team) a subsidized Braun, comp pick value in a prospect or a good young pen arm.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 25, 2016 11:29:09 GMT -5
I wouldn't touch Beltran with a 10 foot pole. He cannot play the field anymore and he's going to be 40 in April. He's also terrible in Texas since he was traded there.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 25, 2016 11:59:02 GMT -5
I'd say the chances are pretty good that a dh/fb/of RHH will be on the team after the Winter Meetings. None of these guys has a troublesome agent. I'm also assuming Panda will be gone. Trumbo: Still relatively young -30?- and has the flashy HR totals. Would cost a lot. What would he do to the Monster? SO's a concern but we're not dealing with a 200 guy. Encarnacion: BF's choice but would likely require more years than you'd want to give. 34yo in '17. Bautista: The elder of the three who is pushing 37. Old but he strikes me as fit with good reflexes. Has a few inj's keeping the stats down so you may be able to get him for 1 year/op with a small buyout. It's an intriguing thought given the possibilities of Travis / Devers, after the '17 Season. If healthy JoeBats could hit 25 GreenMon HR's. I know we all want Pablo gone, but he still has $80M on the balance of his deal, so that is a big load of money. I think it's more likely (despite what I'd like to do) they'll keep him as the DH for next year build up some value then eat a good part of the contract. By then Devers should at least be ready for AAA possibly more. I'd like to sign Easy E for a 3 yr. deal but that's not going to happen. Pablo will be owed around $59 mil @ the start of next year. Still a lot of dough. My hope is that in ST he is showing he can be productive & we can move him (subsidized) then.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 26, 2016 7:44:30 GMT -5
I wouldn't touch Beltran with a 10 foot pole. He cannot play the field anymore and he's going to be 40 in April. He's also terrible in Texas since he was traded there. The nice thing about signing someone to be the DH is that not being able to play in the field anymore isn't a problem. Even with his recent slump, he's at .288/.328/.510 for the year. He's a good bet for a .200 Iso and he'd only need a one-year deal which limits the downside. Sure, there's a risk that his BABIP drop in Texas is indicative of some skill erosion and he ends up something like a .210/.280/.400 player next year, which stinks for a DH. Or, you know, hurt. But there's upside there which can be weighed with the risk. The Yankees are totally signing him and Chapman back though. And then, if they fall out of contention, trading them at the deadline again. Bautista and Encarnacion are tough calls. Encarnacion is very good but will probably end up around 4/$80M which feels rich to me unless the cap in the new CBA goes up 30-40% or so (which isn't at all impossible) - and then maybe the dollar total inflates even more. If Bautista is interested in a one-year bumper contract then it is a sensible player-team matchup. But he's been hurt and pretty ineffective this year and he's at the age where that might be a forever thing. Signing Trumbo coming off the best season of his career is a bad idea. Even with a slightly flukish power burst his OBP is only .315, which makes him a glorified 6th-hole hitter. I'd bet a nickel on Hanley Ramirez (and Carlos Beltran) putting up a higher OPS next year. His 122 wRC+ is only good for 42nd in the league, and it's only the second time in his career above 110. His home run total is probably going to push him over $100 million. Not interested at all.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 26, 2016 9:31:00 GMT -5
What if Shaw doesn't rebound? Does he still have the bat for a corner IF position? Hanley has been pretty steady @ 1B. Pablo had shoulder surgery, that's also something you can't bank on. Travis coming of an ACL, should be ok by AS break. We can't assume Moncada will be ready for opening day. Just saying EE would at least solidify your middle of the order thump. IMO, this is the only hole on the 2017 team. BP should be easy to backfill.
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Post by jmei on Aug 26, 2016 11:05:05 GMT -5
I think Shaw is always going to be a streaky hitter-- he has the sort of longish swing and stride (he starts open and takes a pretty big step to close his stance) that gets out of whack easily timing-wise. He's not as bad as his slumps or as good as his hot streaks. Overall, his bat plays well enough at 3B, but I think it'd be below-average at 1B and something you'd want to upgrade on.
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Post by classylefthander on Aug 26, 2016 12:36:48 GMT -5
I have doubts about Hanley's ability to hit RHP any more. Last year one could excuse him due to his shoulder (81 wRC+). But this year he's at 89 in over 300 PA, with slugging under .400. If they stay internal, you are relying on Pablo to return to a 125 wRC+ Vs RHP to have a platoon DH.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 27, 2016 0:19:22 GMT -5
I know we all want Pablo gone, but he still has $80M on the balance of his deal, so that is a big load of money. I think it's more likely (despite what I'd like to do) they'll keep him as the DH for next year build up some value then eat a good part of the contract. By then Devers should at least be ready for AAA possibly more. I'd like to sign Easy E for a 3 yr. deal but that's not going to happen. Pablo will be owed around $59 mil @ the start of next year. Still a lot of dough. My hope is that in ST he is showing he can be productive & we can move him (subsidized) then. Good catch I foolishly counted this yr. as well. Still a long shot to happen. I'm assuming they move him after they are sure Moncado is up for good.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 27, 2016 16:26:55 GMT -5
No thanks to all the aforementioned. Our hitting attack should be fine next year. If we are to do anything imo it should be to trade. We have an abundance of pitching and several playing coming back along with a full season of Beni and at some point Moncada.
Save the money and go after a blockbuster deal in the future or position ourselves for the year after FA's along with keep pushing to try to lock up our young talent.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2016 19:53:32 GMT -5
No thanks to all the aforementioned. Our hitting attack should be fine next year. If we are to do anything imo it should be to trade. We have an abundance of pitching and several playing coming back along with a full season of Beni and at some point Moncada. Save the money and go after a blockbuster deal in the future or position ourselves for the year after FA's along with keep pushing to try to lock up our young talent. If Sandoval / Shaw as the 1B for a year is deemed inadequate, it would make much more sense to trade for Freddie Freeman than to sign a FA.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 27, 2016 21:39:15 GMT -5
No thanks to all the aforementioned. Our hitting attack should be fine next year. If we are to do anything imo it should be to trade. We have an abundance of pitching and several playing coming back along with a full season of Beni and at some point Moncada. Save the money and go after a blockbuster deal in the future or position ourselves for the year after FA's along with keep pushing to try to lock up our young talent. If Sandoval / Shaw as the 1B for a year is deemed inadequate, it would make much more sense to trade for Freddie Freeman than to sign a FA. I am so down on Sandoval in terms of him being too fat - disgracefully fat, I'm more along the lines of vs righties - Pablo as DH, Hanley at 1B, and Shaw plays 3b. If Pablo fails in his DH role then Holt is the 3b until Moncada is ready. And/or we can have Moncada as a DH vs righties too thereby limiting his innings on defense if he is poor.
I would love Freddie Freeman. He'd be perfect!!! Sign me up!! What do we have to do - I'd support the move for that guy any time! On other boards some of us spoke months ago of our desire to acquire this guy. I have no idea though what it would take to get him.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Aug 27, 2016 21:41:10 GMT -5
We need to replace Ortiz, simple as that. Be it via trade or free agency, but we currently don't have anybody inside our organization who can replace Papi's production. I'm skeptical of Hanley as a DH.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 27, 2016 23:27:22 GMT -5
We need to replace Ortiz, simple as that. Be it via trade or free agency, but we currently don't have anybody inside our organization who can replace Papi's production. I'm skeptical of Hanley as a DH. I don't agree that we need to replace Ortiz.
We'll have better starting pitching and probably a much better bullpen. We'll have Beni starting for a full year in which for most of this year our leftfield was extremely subpar. And when Moncada is ready, our 3b will be much better. We may not get the same production from Leon but then again we shouldn't get the same terrible production we had from Hanigan. We'll have a much better bench instead fio relying on Brentz, rely on Aaron Hill, or full-time Shaw like we had to this year, a sub-par hitting Holt for this year (limit his games if he isn't hitting) and we'll have Young hopefully for more games.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 28, 2016 9:23:15 GMT -5
We need to replace Ortiz, simple as that. Be it via trade or free agency, but we currently don't have anybody inside our organization who can replace Papi's production. I'm skeptical of Hanley as a DH. I don't agree that we need to replace Ortiz.
We'll have better starting pitching and probably a much better bullpen. We'll have Beni starting for a full year in which for most of this year our leftfield was extremely subpar. And when Moncada is ready, our 3b will be much better. We may not get the same production from Leon but then again we shouldn't get the same terrible production we had from Hanigan. We'll have a much better bench instead fio relying on Brentz, rely on Aaron Hill, or full-time Shaw like we had to this year, a sub-par hitting Holt for this year (limit his games if he isn't hitting) and we'll have Young hopefully for more games.
Other than Hill being a free agent I stated many of the same things upthread so I obviously agree with you. We definitely need to upgrade the bullpen. We don't even know if Smith will be back to start the season yet. In house we'll have Kimbrell, Smith, Ross, Barnes, Abad & Kelly) So we need 1 top relief pitcher and I'd make the case we'd be better off with two. The better the bullpen the smarter JF will appear to be. The Sox should explore adding a DH but don't need one. Consider that Young could be our DH when we face LH pitching (and servce as our fourth OF) therefore if we were to add a DH he does not necc. have to be the full time DH. perhaps Jay Bruce, Brandon Moss (former farmhand so let's get this done) or bring back Napoli on a short deal and move Hanley to DH. Possible Free agent relief Pitching include; Relief Pitchers John Axford Joaquin Benoit Jonathan Broxton Buddy Carlyle Brett Cecil Santiago Casilla Aroldis Chapman Jesse Chavez Tim Collins Aaron Crow Wade Davis * Michael Dunn Dana Eveland Neftali Feliz Jason Grilli * Luke Hochevar Greg Holland J.P. Howell Kenley Jansen Casey Janssen Kevin Jepsen Brandon League Boone Logan Javier Lopez Brian Matusz Mark Melancon Joe Nathan Josh Outman Yusmeiro Petit Cesar Ramos Francisco Rodriguez * Sergio Romo Marc Rzepczynski Fernando Salas Sergio Santos Joe Smith Craig Stammen Drew Storen Josh Tomlin Jordan Walden * Brad Ziegler who do you like and why?
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2016 9:26:33 GMT -5
It should not about be replacing Ortiz-- he's gone either way, and the goal is to have the best team, not the best DH.
With that said, I think 1B/DH is clearly the weakest spot on the 2017 roster. The rotation, the OF, SS and 2B are set. Catcher will be Leon and Vazquez, which may be worth upgrading if you're not a Leon believer, but there's not much in terms of upgrades on the market (only Wieters, and he'd be expensive and cost a pick). 3B will be Shaw or Sandoval, but the winner of that battle should be at least averagish, and Moncada is on the horizon.
1B/DH (whichever one Hanley doesn't play), though? Right now, it's one of Shaw or Sandoval, either of which would be well below-average for the position with the bat. Meanwhile, there's a pretty good crop of 1B/DH types in free agency. There's time to figure out which one fits the best, but I think it's a no-brainier that that's the position they'll be looking at.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2016 9:27:59 GMT -5
Feel free to start a new thread to discuss relief pitchers for 2017, but let's not continue that discussion in this thread. Thanks.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 28, 2016 9:47:50 GMT -5
Hopefully, by mid 2017, with Devers and Basabe raking in AA, most of Swihart, Vasquez, Moncada, Travis, Dubon will be added to Beni, Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, Brockstar, Pedey, Hanram, Shaw, Leon, Young. That's enormous firepower as well as above average speed and defense. Even without Big Papi the Sox should be a dominant offense for years to come. The speed, baserunning, doubles, triples and BB's may spearhead this young, high energy, high OBP juggernaught but as in 2016 Home Runs won't be far behind.
Trumbo, EE, Bautista, Beltran don't really fit this model. Papi did because the team has been built around the big guy and Pedey for a decade. With the TYPE of extreme talent continuing to filter up through this top ranked farm system, that should no longer be the model. Perhaps a young, dynamic, acculturated Puig would fit if DDo, Farrell, Chili Davis and the coaches support the active efforts of Pedey, Hanram and Coach Papi to help him fit in. But the slow, defensively inept, aging or K-prone sluggers not named Ortiz do not. Otherwise, the offensive additions of Beni, Moncada, Swihart, Travis, Dubon to this strong Sox offense, using a rotating DH, should create a devastating offense; while enhancing defense, speed and versatility.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 28, 2016 10:17:18 GMT -5
It should not about be replacing Ortiz-- he's gone either way, and the goal is to have the best team, not the best DH. With that said, I think 1B/DH is clearly the weakest spot on the 2017 roster. The rotation, the OF, SS and 2B are set. Catcher will be Leon and Vazquez, which may be worth upgrading if you're not a Leon believer, but there's not much in terms of upgrades on the market (only Wieters, and he'd be expensive and cost a pick). 3B will be Shaw or Sandoval, but the winner of that battle should be at least averagish, and Moncada is on the horizon. 1B/DH (whichever one Hanley doesn't play), though? Right now, it's one of Shaw or Sandoval, either of which would be well below-average for the position with the bat. Meanwhile, there's a pretty good crop of 1B/DH types in free agency. There's time to figure out which one fits the best, but I think it's a no-brainier that that's the position they'll be looking at. No love for Swihart? I put him ahead of Vasquez or Leon in 2017.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2016 10:34:10 GMT -5
Vazquez is out of options, and Swihart could use more time in AAA to work on his catcher defense.
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Post by ryantoworkman on Aug 28, 2016 10:42:01 GMT -5
The Sox will have about 35 home runs and 120 RBIs to make up for. No way they go into 2017 without picking up a DH over the winter. Of the four (Encarnacion, Trumbo, Bautista, and Beltran) I'll take Encarnacion by a mile. He has a track record the last 4-5 years of producing the kind of numbers Ortiz is putting up this year. I would spend the dough and make it happen. The scouts in Money Ball said something very similar to Billy Beane when they were discussing replacing Giambi. As we saw, it does not have to come from one position, or be a one player replacing another with similar production. First, EE, Trumbo, or Beltran would all be great adds for this team. Not sold on Joey Batts, as I see the cliff approaching due to health concerns. Now, can the Sox replace Papi's production from within? Here's why they may possibly make a stand pat choice: - A full year of Andrew Benintendi has some offset - A health, and motivated Sandoval has some offset - A year more comfortable David Price has some offset - A comfortable Pomeranz for a full year has some offset - Another year of maturity for all the kids has some offset - Healthy and effective Smith and Workman provide some offset - The 2017 emergence of Moncada has some offset That's 13 roster positions where a means to offset Papi's lost production can occur. This is however, 13 question marks where they can't lock in that production value. In the end, it may be that the variable is too great to not pull the trigger on one of the bats available. My guess is EE; because he wants to play 1B, and Hanley wants to DH, and it fits better than trying to fit in a lesser outfielder. The money is another unknown. We would all expect the LT value to go up, but small market teams are going to fight too large an increase. If 2017 goes over $200M, then I do see them making a splash. If it doesnt, the choices become murkier
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Post by joshmoody23 on Aug 28, 2016 11:02:27 GMT -5
No way to Trumbo! Edwin Encarnarcion is my top choice. Bautista wants to play the OF and would have to be a full time DH in Boston
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