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Offseason front office thread (10/16: Hazen to AZ)
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 19, 2016 15:22:00 GMT -5
Curious what Eric thinks about Tom Tippett leaving since he must have worked with him. Tippett has been with the team since 2003.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 19, 2016 15:43:11 GMT -5
There is a lot of 20/20 hindsight and nostalgia in this thread.
Yes, Theo is very good but there was also some awful signings and bad trades in his era too.
Dombrowski has a great track record and he is one of the people im least worried about.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 19, 2016 17:23:31 GMT -5
Great track record of what actually?
The thing that I find most interesting is that a lot of teams in the league are going the "Red Sox way" while the Red Sox seem to be distancing themselves from it every day.
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Post by GyIantosca on Oct 19, 2016 18:31:15 GMT -5
I know that turnover is good. I would do whatever it took to keep Romero jr is a rock star in international. I love how Rickard does the drafts. The last two have been impressive to me. I also like Bannister I noticed a huge difference in the pitching when he helped out. The rumor about Wren was a joke. Please him getting the job over those guys lol.
There's good guys working under Hazen. Also I here are plenty of people who would come to Boston and leave there jobs in a hurry.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 19, 2016 21:38:20 GMT -5
There is a lot of 20/20 hindsight and nostalgia in this thread. Yes, Theo is very good but there was also some awful signings and bad trades in his era too. Dombrowski has a great track record and he is one of the people im least worried about. There is nothing nostalgic about the Theo era. The fact of the matter is that when Theo was the GM and he had his crew and Tito was the manager the Red Sox were the best and brightest in the game. It is almost how the Kennedy administration has been referred to as "Camelot". Theo had a vision on what he wanted the Red Sox to be, but toward the end he gave in and started going against his principles to appease the Lucchino/Werner faction of the front office that favored brand and instant gratification over building a baseball team the right way (which could mean bridge years and rebuilding if necessary). I'll alway wonder how the Sox would have turned out had Theo been allowed carte blanche to build the team the way he really saw fit, without the interference from Werner and Lucchino, the way Dombrowski has been given carte blanche. Theo's dream job was to be the Sox GM, his team, but he left the job because he could see that his ideals differed greatly from ownership's and that when he started caving in (by building an uberteam in 2011), he knew it was time to leave and go somewhere else to build from the ground up. Thankfully Theo left the Red Sox his 2011 draft and Cherington kept those guys and made some "investment" deals that came to fruition in later years like Porcello and Wright. He had a creativity and vision that I don't know that Dombrowski really has. Dombrowski's thing is to "sort" out talent. He usually knows which prospects to trade in a deal, which is a theory that will be severely tested in the Espinoza case. Dombrowski did a good job building up the Expos and Marlins, the latter of whom he did win with, and he was able to rebuild the Tigers, but in a way that would make most of us queasy. I'm guessing most of his moves with Detroit were for instant gratification to appease his octogenarian owner. So I don't think he's the 100% trade all the farm guys GM that he's thought of around here, but he's also not the let's build through the farm and be innovative kind of guy I would think Theo or even Cherington was. I don't expect Dombrowski to solve issues finding a bargain like a Steven Wright or a Koji Uehara. He's going to buy top of the line items, which is more of a direct route to solve an issue, but can cause other issues, like committing huge dollars and years or dealing away prime prospects. It seems to me that while it's a credit to DD that he has stayed within the organization to find a GM, it seems to me the GM position carries very little clout, and is nothing more than a stepping stone to the next open real GM job elsewhere. I personally would rather the Sox employ the next Theo as the guy making baseball decisions than the current Dombrowski, not that he's terrible, but I'd rather have an innovative guy who blends statistical analysis with scouting. I think DD tends to be a lot more of the latter than the former while I think Theo mixed both pretty well.
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Post by dnfl333 on Oct 19, 2016 22:03:31 GMT -5
There is a lot of 20/20 hindsight and nostalgia in this thread. Yes, Theo is very good but there was also some awful signings and bad trades in his era too. Dombrowski has a great track record and he is one of the people im least worried about. There is nothing nostalgic about the Theo era. The fact of the matter is that when Theo was the GM and he had his crew and Tito was the manager the Red Sox were the best and brightest in the game. It is almost how the Kennedy administration has been referred to as "Camelot". Theo had a vision on what he wanted the Red Sox to be, but toward the end he gave in and started going against his principles to appease the Lucchino/Werner faction of the front office that favored brand and instant gratification over building a baseball team the right way (which could mean bridge years and rebuilding if necessary). I'll alway wonder how the Sox would have turned out had Theo been allowed carte blanche to build the team the way he really saw fit, without the interference from Werner and Lucchino, the way Dombrowski has been given carte blanche. Theo's dream job was to be the Sox GM, his team, but he left the job because he could see that his ideals differed greatly from ownership's and that when he started caving in (by building an uberteam in 2011), he knew it was time to leave and go somewhere else to build from the ground up. Thankfully Theo left the Red Sox his 2011 draft and Cherington kept those guys and made some "investment" deals that came to fruition in later years like Porcello and Wright. He had a creativity and vision that I don't know that Dombrowski really has. Dombrowski's thing is to "sort" out talent. He usually knows which prospects to trade in a deal, which is a theory that will be severely tested in the Espinoza case. Dombrowski did a good job building up the Expos and Marlins, the latter of whom he did win with, and he was able to rebuild the Tigers, but in a way that would make most of us queasy. I'm guessing most of his moves with Detroit were for instant gratification to appease his octogenarian owner. So I don't think he's the 100% trade all the farm guys GM that he's thought of around here, but he's also not the let's build through the farm and be innovative kind of guy I would think Theo or even Cherington was. I don't expect Dombrowski to solve issues finding a bargain like a Steven Wright or a Koji Uehara. He's going to buy top of the line items, which is more of a direct route to solve an issue, but can cause other issues, like committing huge dollars and years or dealing away prime prospects. It seems to me that while it's a credit to DD that he has stayed within the organization to find a GM, it seems to me the GM position carries very little clout, and is nothing more than a stepping stone to the next open real GM job elsewhere. I personally would rather the Sox employ the next Theo as the guy making baseball decisions than the current Dombrowski, not that he's terrible, but I'd rather have an innovative guy who blends statistical analysis with scouting. I think DD tends to be a lot more of the latter than the former while I think Theo mixed both pretty well. Epstein's best front office hire was BLaJoie Epstein was quoted recently, the pressure to win in Boston was immense. That quote in itself is enough to make any GM spend like a drunken sailor which we have seen time and time again in the Free Agent market not to mention some very ? Trades not named Lester or Lackey.. Welcome to Boston Dave
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 19, 2016 22:10:49 GMT -5
Great track record of what actually? The 2011-2014 Tigers teams were incredibly talented. He also built the team that defeated the MFY dynasty from the ground up in goddamn Florida of all places. I'm not a HUGE fan of Dombrowski and I do think that Theo is a better baseball mind (although he is getting weirdly overrated in this thread), but let's not deny what DDo has done in this league.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 19, 2016 22:50:28 GMT -5
Great track record of what actually? The 2011-2014 Tigers teams were incredibly talented. He also built the team that defeated the MFY dynasty from the ground up in goddamn Florida of all places. I'm not a HUGE fan of Dombrowski and I do think that Theo is a better baseball mind (although he is getting weirdly overrated in this thread), but let's not deny what DDo has done in this league. I'm not trying to deny he has had success in this league. But point to what he is great at exactly? Maybe at trades? He once traded good players for good prospects and traded for Miguel Cabrera I'll give him that. His Detroit teams were talented but could not build a bullpen to save his life always in the free agent market trying to "solve" it, he did mostly while they were not playing actual games. To me he lacks in areas where great GMs usually excell at, finding a competitive advantage, finding bullpen pieces out of nowhere. He does win a lot of best offseason award in the spring.
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Post by theghostofjoecronin on Oct 20, 2016 0:10:48 GMT -5
Watch the sox hire Rubén Amaro Jr as the next GM Ah, so the First Base coach job was just to get his foot in the door. Smart man...
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 20, 2016 4:28:05 GMT -5
Letting go of Theo is still the dumbest thing we ever did. We didn't let him go....he left.
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Post by chud on Oct 20, 2016 4:56:46 GMT -5
I think the thing with Theo was that eventually he was going to leave...didn't sound like he was going to spend 40 years with the Red Sox then retire...the guy sounds like he knows himself very well..although I think he might have stayed a little while longer (possibly, possibly not) if not for the LL factor...Francona I think was a different story...I don't think Francona was going to voluntarily walk away from the Sox like Theo did...But i also think, especially in Boston, there's a shelf life for anyone...especially the manager...Kind of like a relationship, you can't necessarily see it when it's really over when you're knee deep in it but from a year or two down the road, you realize it was totally the right thing, which is where I think tito is now..
Doesn't stop the regret from realizing we had both Theo/Tito here and now they're gone...but realizing it's inevitable is the first step of the 10 step process...But let's be honest, working in the Boston market is a thankless job...yeah, the passionate fan base is great, money is great, budget is great, but comes with enormous pressure, rabid media, unforgiving fan base etc...You can get all of the good w/ none of the bad in places like St. Louis, Chicago, LA...where the pressure is less, the media scrutiny is less, and yet the money, budget, and fan base are all still totally good...Honestly, we need to appreciate the folks who want to work in Boston, not just the ones who get jobs in boston, but those who actually strive to work in boston like Farrell...Think about it, w/ 3 WS in the bank, what's the up side for someone coming in as a President of Baseball Ops, GM, Manager...Savior, no, status quo means WS or bust, relentless comparisons by the media to the "good old days"...If i had options, i'm not sure Boston would be at the top of my list.
Remember when we all thought the first guy to win a WS in Boston would have a job for life, statue in the parking lot, never pay for a dinner ever again...then think about what happened in the 2011 collapse...feelings change quickly in Boston...which is why we're lucky to have someone of DD's caliber leading baseball ops. Someone who's confident, decisive, and unafraid of the scrutiny, yet comes w/ a successful/proven track record and someone who actually "chose" Boston over other opportunities...I think those traits will be hard to come by for the Sox going forward...
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 20, 2016 5:51:52 GMT -5
I'm not. I mean, who cares who's writing the reports as long as they go straight into Dombrowski's trash can? You have any sources for this bull****? The "DD hates analytics" meme is run is course since we have no proof that its true Are you familiar with the term "where there's smoke there's fire?"
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,403
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Post by radiohix on Oct 20, 2016 6:52:49 GMT -5
I'm not. I mean, who cares who's writing the reports as long as they go straight into Dombrowski's trash can? You have any sources for this bull****? The "DD hates analytics" meme is run is course since we have no proof that its true I know you like posting links and screenshots so here's some for you: LINK
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 20, 2016 9:27:25 GMT -5
Is it that "guys are getting out while they have the chance"? Is it that the Sox have been quite successful and other clubs are hiring them away out of respect for what the organization has been able to accomplish? Is it that these people are leaving to pursue promotion?
Probably some of each of the above. Another way in which every good thing sows the seeds of its own destruction (as a wise man once said.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 20, 2016 12:26:03 GMT -5
Yeah who's getting out while they have the chance? Where is this exodus of analytics guys that Cameron is referring to?
Who, other than Tippett, is leaving that isn't getting a promotion?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2016 14:21:39 GMT -5
That article was dated before sketchy reports of Preller and before the forearm tightness at the end of the season this pasr season. If Pomeranz has Tommy John surgery next year, will you still defend it? I doubt it. Well with the major increase in innings, Pomeranz having some arm problems was something that should have been expected. Now if that leads to TJ surgery, I will look at this trade in a much different way. I will no longer defend it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2016 14:31:14 GMT -5
I look at Kimbrel's numbers and the only thing that's was way off this year was his walks. It's not like guys were teeing off him, not even close. I chalk this year up to playing in a market like Boston for the first time. He struggled just like Porcello did and look at how that turned out the next year. Look at Price, a guy that spent most of his playing career in AL East he struggled badly in his first year in Boston. I expect both will be just fine next year, we all knew that more than likely Pomeranz would run into a wall at some point due to innings, that's not a surprise. But you can't resist saying his value is lower at this very second. Sure it is, but so is the package of players that we traded away, which you keep overlooking and that's my whole point. There's a reason people say most trades need 3-5 years before you fully understand who got the better deal. But you guys just can't resist thinking your right before you know you truly are right. How quickly people forget how good Pomeranz was before the massive increase in innings caught up to him! So wait a minute, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, major league players, shouldn't have their performance this year held against them when evaluating these trades, because first year in Boston/innings. But Anderson Espinoza, one of the youngest players in a full-season league, has seen his value decrease because his ERA was a little high this year. C'mon man. That's not what I said! "But you can't resist saying his value is lower at this very second. Sure it is, but so is the package of players that we traded away, which you keep overlooking and that's my whole point." That's what I said. I clearly said I don't care out AE ERA, it's his WHIP and the amount of hits that is a little scary for a guy with his advance stuff in low A ball. My point was more about Guerra who's value has tanked massively, than AE. You can't just look at Kimbrel and Pomeranz current value, without looking at who they were traded away for and their current value.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 20, 2016 14:43:39 GMT -5
From yesterdays 108 stiches
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 20, 2016 14:59:38 GMT -5
Great track record of what actually? The thing that I find most interesting is that a lot of teams in the league are going the "Red Sox way" while the Red Sox seem to be distancing themselves from it every day. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_DombrowskiI would say his track record is that he wins. 5 times out of the last 6 years his team has won their division. He won a title as GM of the Marlins, that in itself is very impressive. Sure he makes mistakes, so does Theo. I would say that Dave handles the pressure to win at all costs better than Theo does. Let's see if Theo can get the Cubs to win their division for 5 out of the next 6 years.
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Post by jmei on Oct 20, 2016 15:39:45 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 20, 2016 18:53:09 GMT -5
So wait a minute, Kimbrel and Pomeranz, major league players, shouldn't have their performance this year held against them when evaluating these trades, because first year in Boston/innings. But Anderson Espinoza, one of the youngest players in a full-season league, has seen his value decrease because his ERA was a little high this year. C'mon man. That's not what I said! "But you can't resist saying his value is lower at this very second. Sure it is, but so is the package of players that we traded away, which you keep overlooking and that's my whole point." That's what I said. I clearly said I don't care out AE ERA, it's his WHIP and the amount of hits that is a little scary for a guy with his advance stuff in low A ball. My point was more about Guerra who's value has tanked massively, than AE. You can't just look at Kimbrel and Pomeranz current value, without looking at who they were traded away for and their current value. ERA, WHIP and # of hits are all closely related to BABIP, which is why we don't care about it for single A players. His k and bb rates are way more important. Go look at the team he played on in Fort Wayne. The majority of pitchers had an FIP way lower than his ERA. www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=20&type=1&season=2016&team=130&players=0Also, he was 18 in low A. His value has not dropped whatsoever. If you want to argue, we can just wait until the rankings come out again.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2016 21:03:05 GMT -5
From Keith Law's chat, today:
Nobody gives a damn that Espinoza gave up a bunch of singles to players four years older than he is.
EDIT: As far as Dombrowski goes, his track record pretty strong over the long term and decidedly mixed in 2016 for sure. But I'm going to play devil's advocate on him. Every single team is doing quantitative analytics well at the top, and every team is hiring some ex-Cleveland Indians intern who studied stats at Princeton as their GM. Let's assume that the return, right now, from a quant approach is diminishing, while a qualitative (e.g. scouting) approach is a place a team can get a real advantage.
Baseball was very different when he turned around the 2003 Tigers - the worst team I've seen in my 30 years of watching baseball - in about three seasons. But he has an approach and he does it well. I feel like the problem a lot of people have isn't his track record, it's that his approach differs from the one they prefer.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 20, 2016 21:12:25 GMT -5
The only way I could see people being disappointed was if they bought the narrative that he was gonna absolutely dominate low-a reach double-a by the end of the year and make his MLB debut some time next season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 20, 2016 23:20:55 GMT -5
Great track record of what actually? The thing that I find most interesting is that a lot of teams in the league are going the "Red Sox way" while the Red Sox seem to be distancing themselves from it every day. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_DombrowskiI would say his track record is that he wins. 5 times out of the last 6 years his team has won their division. He won a title as GM of the Marlins, that in itself is very impressive. Sure he makes mistakes, so does Theo. I would say that Dave handles the pressure to win at all costs better than Theo does. L et's see if Theo can get the Cubs to win their division for 5 out of the next 6 years. These days Theo has the Cubs playing for loftier goals than "winning the division for 5 out of 6 years". His team is virtually one win away from its first pennant in 71 years and has a legit shot of winning its first World Series title in 108. I'd say Cubs fans prefer that to finishing in 1st 5 years out of 6, but the Cubs just might do so anyways. They have some veterans on that team, but their core is young. Keep in mind, this 103 win team has Schwarber coming back next year and Baez is coming into his own. Rizzo is entering his prime and Bryant is quite young. Their catcher Contreras is young as is Addison Russell. Theo has this team well positioned for the next five years. His owner was smart enough to let him do things his way without interference. The Cubs tanked the first several years. No instant gratification as he built up the farm system. The irony is that the Red Sox ownership was so damn scared of bridge year talk and rebuilding talk, yet the Red Sox became last place losers out of the pennant race by May in 3 of 4 seasons anyways, which definitely was not good for NESN ratings. You can credit Dombrowski with the divsion title win in 2016 if you like. He added very expensive pieces in Price and Kimbrel, a very costly piece in Pomeranz, and some useful parts like Ziegler and Young and I suspect Carson Smith will eventually be useful, too. But the core of this team: Ortiz, Pedroia, and the youngsters Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ were supplied by Theo while Cherington contributed Benintendi, Porcello, Wright, and Hanley Ramirez, drafted under Theo's watch originally. So I'd say Dombrowski was left some good pieces by Theo.
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Post by bosox81 on Oct 21, 2016 8:57:25 GMT -5
Have you been watching these playoffs? How can you not watch the cubs and not be impressed at the job Theo has done? Heck even the Sox team is in large part Theo's
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