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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 10, 2016 13:16:56 GMT -5
The White Sox are taking calls on Todd Frazier. I can't imagine the price being too high since he's a FA after the season, and he can play 1B as well. Not sure what the Red Sox would have to give up, but it's maybe something to think about.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 13:24:02 GMT -5
Frazier is the type of player where the system's lack of depth hurts them. I'd be uncomfortable giving up any of the top five for him, but anything after that doesn't feel good enough to be the headlining piece for him (unless they are high on Travis or Basabe or Owens specifically). Feel like it would be hard to put a reasonable package together.
EDIT: Frazier is also a tough player to value correctly without knowing the 2017 offseason compensation scheme.
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 10, 2016 13:35:47 GMT -5
He'd be a good addition, but you're right. They'd have to be pretty high on one of those guys for a deal to work, and I don't see them taking a deal without a "notable" prospect involved. I still think DDo would think about a move like this, if he's still available after the new CBA.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 13:44:34 GMT -5
I'M not undervaluing him. He's what a 3-4 war player at DH and that might be high, he might be more like 2-3 war player. He's no where near Ortiz level. Also you can't just assume a career OF can play 1B. Hanley was a career infielder and he couldn't play the OF. It's a totally different skill set. If he could play 1B at a close to average level he could be worth more in regards to wars, but that's a big if. We are only looking for a 1 year stop gap, there are a lot of other players that can fill that need and cost less to acquire. From your posts you seem to want near all star level players at every position and that's never going to happen. QO is huge for the players as it drives down salary, there's a reason everyone keeps saying they don't know if it Will exist next year, it's far from a given. No one knows, well except you I guess. I would be shocked if it didn't change in some way. Have you looked at available 3B this year? You have Turner and almost nothing else. A league average to slightly above 3B that plays good D, makes peanuts and has 5 years of team control has value. Never said he would get elite prospects, but I can sure see a team with a big need trading a player or two like Doubon for him. I think you are grossly underrating JD Martinez. Ortiz: 2014 - 134 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 162 wRC+ JD Martinez: 2014 - 154 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 142 wRC+ They are nearly dead even and JD Martinez is a MUCH better baserunner (he's a 40-45, but Ortiz was really bad at running). Ortiz had a great 2016, but I'd argue that Martinez is the better player. Not taking away anything from Ortiz, but Martinez is REALLY good. Probably 3.5 fWAR at DH. (he missed a few games last year and was brutal in the field, so his fWAR looks low) Well if I call him a 3-4 war player and you peg him at 3.5, how did I undervalue him? Maybe, gulp, i overrated Ortiz lol. Ortiz is a career OPS+ 140 hitter, Martinez is 123. Martinez has a long way to go to before you should consider him anywhere near Ortiz. Nice 3 year stretch, but that's about it. Also Pedrofan said we shouldn't get Beltran because we should get more than 130 plus games out of DH, but Martinez has averaged 134 games last 3 years. At his age that is worrisome. It's also a red flag when people are saying a guy can't play the field anymore at age 28. Ortiz has averaged 146 games last 3 years and given you bwar of 2.9, 3.3 and 5.0. Your also comparing Ortiz age 38-40 seasons to Martinez peak years. Ortiz's best 3 year stretch was age 29-31, we'll see if that's true for Martinez. If he can have the monster seasons Ortiz did, than maybe we are both undervaluing him, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 10, 2016 14:07:22 GMT -5
I think you are grossly underrating JD Martinez. Ortiz: 2014 - 134 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 162 wRC+ JD Martinez: 2014 - 154 wRC+ 2015 - 137 wRC+ 2016 - 142 wRC+ They are nearly dead even and JD Martinez is a MUCH better baserunner (he's a 40-45, but Ortiz was really bad at running). Ortiz had a great 2016, but I'd argue that Martinez is the better player. Not taking away anything from Ortiz, but Martinez is REALLY good. Probably 3.5 fWAR at DH. (he missed a few games last year and was brutal in the field, so his fWAR looks low) Well if I call him a 3-4 war player and you peg him at 3.5, how did I undervalue him? Maybe, gulp, i overrated Ortiz lol. Ortiz is a career OPS+ 140 hitter, Martinez is 123. Martinez has a long way to go to before you should consider him anywhere near Ortiz. Nice 3 year stretch, but that's about it. Also Pedrofan said we shouldn't get Beltran because we should get more than 130 plus games out of DH, but Martinez has averaged 134 games last 3 years. At his age that is worrisome. It's also a red flag when people are saying a guy can't play the field anymore at age 28. Ortiz has averaged 146 games last 3 years and given you bwar of 2.9, 3.3 and 5.0. Your also comparing Ortiz age 38-40 seasons to Martinez peak years. Ortiz's best 3 year stretch was age 29-31, we'll see if that's true for Martinez. If he can have the monster seasons Ortiz did, than maybe we are both undervaluing him, but I wouldn't bet on it. Martinez clearly made some kind of adjustment starting in 2014 which turned him into an elite hitter. There is no point in counting the previous seasons when you point to his career OPS+ when describing his value now.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 14:09:02 GMT -5
"Ortiz is a career OPS+ 140 hitter, Martinez is 123." If you can give a good reason why we should consider their career numbers - which includes Ortiz's peak and Martinez before he got good - in comparing their value, please do so. "Nice three year stretch." Come the heck on. He's not comparing Martinez to Ortiz's peak, he's saying that he's a good bet to replicate his recent production. ]here is no point in counting the previous seasons when you point to his career OPS+ when describing his value now. You're missing the point that it's possible to cherrypick numbers to prove his preconceived notions. EDIT: I can't stress enough how much this is nonsense. It'd be like using Derek Jeter's 1999 season to try to show that Didi Gregorius wasn't a worthwhile replacement for his production in 2015.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 14:24:53 GMT -5
Well Ortiz's career numbers also include his 6 so-so to bad seasons in Minnesota. I don't know how you can call using career numbers cherry picking. You have no clue if Martinez is going to start declining at his age 31 season like Pujols or if they will be peak years like Ortiz. With all his injuries and the fact people say he can no longer play the field at age 28 I have major questions about how he will age.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 14:31:19 GMT -5
Career performance numbers are not more indicative of current skill than three-year performance. You chose to use career numbers because they reinforce your point better than the evidence that wcsoxfan presented - despite the fact that your numbers are less likely to align with near-term future performance. That is what cherry-picking is: finding numbers that reinforce your preconceived notion without respect to whether they are useful.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 14:41:09 GMT -5
He said JD Martinez is a better player, thus I used career numbers. He didn't say JD Martinez would be a good bet to give you Ortiz production from the last 3 years, like you said. There's a huge difference. If he used your wording it would be totally different. For me he's implying that Martinez is going to go onto to a Ortiz career and his peak numbers. For me that wishful thinking at best.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 10, 2016 14:59:39 GMT -5
He said JD Martinez is a better player, thus I used career numbers. He didn't say JD Martinez would be a good bet to give you Ortiz production from the last 3 years, like you said. There's a huge difference. If he used your wording it would be totally different. For me he's implying that Martinez is going to go onto to a Ortiz career and his peak numbers. For me that wishful thinking at best. Better player now, not better career. Some players have huge breakouts and Martinez is one of them. I mean you wouldn't argue that JBJ's current value is based on his career 93 wRC+ because he made some huge adjustments and is a much better hitter than in 2013 and 2014.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 10, 2016 15:05:18 GMT -5
He said JD Martinez is a better player, thus I used career numbers. He didn't say JD Martinez would be a good bet to give you Ortiz production from the last 3 years, like you said. There's a huge difference. If he used your wording it would be totally different. For me he's implying that Martinez is going to go onto to a Ortiz career and his peak numbers. For me that wishful thinking at best. 'Is' implies current tense while 'was' would imply past tense. I believe JD Martinez 'is' a better player at this moment due to the difference in baserunning. If given the choice of who I would want as the Red Sox DH next year between Ortiz and Martinez, I would take Martinez. It's like we've been dating an awesome hot girl these past several years and she just gave us the 'its not you its me' treatment and you're jumping at the opportunity to point out that no other girl will ever be better. It's OK man - let her go! (Ortiz = girl) I don't think the Red Sox will get JD Martinez, but I certainly think he's the best player of all of the options brought up so far.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 10, 2016 15:12:42 GMT -5
He said JD Martinez is a better player, thus I used career numbers. He didn't say JD Martinez would be a good bet to give you Ortiz production from the last 3 years, like you said. There's a huge difference. If he used your wording it would be totally different. For me he's implying that Martinez is going to go onto to a Ortiz career and his peak numbers. For me that wishful thinking at best. Better player now, not better career. Some players have huge breakouts and Martinez is one of them. I mean you wouldn't argue that JBJ's current value is based on his career 93 wRC+ because he made some huge adjustments and is a much better hitter than in 2013 and 2014. I don't have a problem with he's currently a better player, yet like he said there last 3 years are almost the same. I think the Mods wording was right and makes sense. It's the he's a better player thing I have a problem with and why I said it was Ortiz age 38-40 seasons and Martinez prime years. I went off what he actually said. I'm one of Bradleys biggest fan and don't think we've seen his best yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 10, 2016 17:10:08 GMT -5
I've seen Cashner mentioned as the next possible Andrew Miller project in three different places. I'm not seeing it. Maybe in 2012 when he was averaging 98 instead of 93.8 last year.
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Post by dirtdog on Nov 10, 2016 20:17:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox are on the list of suitors. "They want him badly," said a source of ESPN Boston's. Several others have reported Boston having a heavy interest in Beltran replacing David Ortiz as their aging but still great DH. Of course, the Astros are "hot for Beltran," per the New York Daily News. That would be a fun reunion. Beltran played 90 games for the Astros after being traded to them in 2004 and was insane. He racked up 17 doubles, seven triples, 23 homers and 28 steals in those 90 games. He then hit .435/.536/1.022 with eight homers and 14 RBI in 12 playoff games. The following offseason he hit free agency and got a huge deal from the Mets. The Blue Jays have also been connected to Beltran in rumors, mostly in case they lose both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion to free agency. If the Yankees end up trading Brian McCann -- now that Gary Sanchez is firmly established as the catcher of the future -- they'll surely be in play to bring Beltran back. So that's the Rangers, Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees so far. There will probably be more as well. www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-rumors-red-sox-astros-among-teams-connected-to-carlos-beltran/
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 20:20:00 GMT -5
I've seen Cashner mentioned as the next possible Andrew Miller project in three different places. I'm not seeing it. Maybe in 2012 when he was averaging 98 instead of 93.8 last year. Yeah, he's been talked about seemingly for years as a player who could end up in the bullpen if starting doesn't work out, but I'm not sure if I see it either. I have to say, it's one of those things I'd trust the folks with a better scouting eye than I have. I wouldn't have thought Wade Davis's stuff would have played up so much in the bullpen, but the Royals supposedly asked for him in the Shields-Myers deal because they liked him there if he ended up not cutting it in the rotation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 20:42:31 GMT -5
Unless you consider Greg Holland a "elite closer" at the moment, the Sox haven't been tied or connected to any free agent "elite closers" this off season. You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence. Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 10, 2016 22:45:17 GMT -5
You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence. Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever. Yeah, I actually agree with you that Dombrowski's pretty forthcoming. He's mentioned an 8th-inning arm. The question is, does he plan to try to go "over," and get a closer who he'll use like Giles or Miller, or does he go "under," and hope he can remake/develop a near-elite arm? Because there are pretty much no elite setup men out there.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 22:57:07 GMT -5
Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever. Yeah, I actually agree with you that Dombrowski's pretty forthcoming. He's mentioned an 8th-inning arm. The question is, does he plan to try to go "over," and get a closer who he'll use like Giles or Miller, or does he go "under," and hope he can remake/develop a near-elite arm? Because there are pretty much no elite setup men out there. Well depends on your variance of "elite" arms is. The only elite set up man I potentially see this free agent market is Holland. The trade options open up more doors however. There's names like Jake MgGee, Wade Davis, Kelvim Herrera, David Robertson, and maybe even AJ Ramos whose names could be floated around or will probably be available in the trade market.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 10, 2016 23:06:17 GMT -5
Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 10, 2016 23:09:48 GMT -5
Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback? Hahaha awesome, nice say of making your point sir. And the answer is no.
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Post by Smittyw on Nov 10, 2016 23:19:45 GMT -5
Well, his defensive ratings are still better than Morales's were, and Morales was theoretically playing an easier position. Both are essentially DH-only. I'd rather give up nothing (not even a draft pick) for either than have to give up real prospects for Martinez (which would cost someone in the top-5, and that's not remotely worth it). The off season plan for the Tigers is to shed payroll and get younger. I really don't think Martinez costs a top 5 prospect in his last arbitration year. I really don't. I think a package of Shaw and Dubon (a top 10 prospect) could get the ball rolling there. JD Martinez is one of the most obvious trade options of the Tigers this off-season. If Dombrowski gave up Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz, then got JD Martinez for Shaw and Dubon, I wouldn't know whether to laugh or cry.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 0:32:18 GMT -5
You base way too much off reports. Teams don't usually tip there hand. Most reports are what people think teams will do. Example did you hear any reports that Red Sox were after Kimbrel last year? Nope, it came out of left field. Did you hear reports that Red Sox were after Smith? Nope. No I don't consider Holland elite at this time, just Red Sox doing due diligence. Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever. My point was while he tells you what he's going after, you don't hear about the players till after he acquires them. There were no reports saying Red Sox were going after Kimbrel. So your left to debate what elite 8th inning arm means. You take that to mean, no closer and for me looking at the market, I wouldn't rule it out. Dave goes after best available, that's just what he does. Chapman is the best player you could get to pitch the 8th inning. Like I've said before it's a long shot, but I wouldn't rule it out like you are doing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 0:45:04 GMT -5
Yeah, I actually agree with you that Dombrowski's pretty forthcoming. He's mentioned an 8th-inning arm. The question is, does he plan to try to go "over," and get a closer who he'll use like Giles or Miller, or does he go "under," and hope he can remake/develop a near-elite arm? Because there are pretty much no elite setup men out there. Well depends on your variance of "elite" arms is. The only elite set up man I potentially see this free agent market is Holland. The trade options open up more doors however. There's names like Jake MgGee, Wade Davis, Kelvim Herrera, David Robertson, and maybe even AJ Ramos whose names could be floated around or will probably be available in the trade market. So Chapman isn't an option because he's a closer, but Holland who is also a closer, fits your idea of elite 8th inning arm?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 11, 2016 1:58:15 GMT -5
Well depends on your variance of "elite" arms is. The only elite set up man I potentially see this free agent market is Holland. The trade options open up more doors however. There's names like Jake MgGee, Wade Davis, Kelvim Herrera, David Robertson, and maybe even AJ Ramos whose names could be floated around or will probably be available in the trade market. So Chapman isn't an option because he's a closer, but Holland who is also a closer, fits your idea of elite 8th inning arm? Yes because his agent Scott Boras has already came out and said that Holland is open to setting up for clubs as he works to rebuilds his value after Tommy John surgery. He's already willing to set up regardless of dollars figures.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 11, 2016 2:00:51 GMT -5
Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever. My point was while he tells you what he's going after, you don't hear about the players till after he acquires them. There were no reports saying Red Sox were going after Kimbrel. No but you missed the point that he came out and said that he was directly looking at pitchers that can close last year. As in closer. Kimbrel is a closer and he was going to get a guy like that regardless of who we knew he was going after. That is the point.
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