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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 11, 2016 2:05:54 GMT -5
Actually DD came out and said he was looking to trade for bullpen pieces last year too and he most notably said the closer position last year. This year he has made no notion about getting a closer whatsoever. So your left to debate what elite 8th inning arm means. You take that to mean, no closer and for me looking at the market, I wouldn't rule it out. Dave goes after best available, that's just what he does. Chapman is the best player you could get to pitch the 8th inning. Like I've said before it's a long shot, but I wouldn't rule it out like you are doing. 8th inning arms mean set up men, as in non closer high leverage inning pitchers. I can completely rule out that the Sox aren't going after Chapman because he's a 9th inning guy, as in closer. You can keep going on about this in your head, but at least every one else here knows what the definition of a 8th inning man is.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 2:35:40 GMT -5
My point was while he tells you what he's going after, you don't hear about the players till after he acquires them. There were no reports saying Red Sox were going after Kimbrel. No but you missed the point that he came out and said that he was directly looking at pitchers that can close last year. As in closer. Kimbrel is a closer and he was going to get a guy like that regardless of who we knew he was going after. That is the point. Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 2:43:31 GMT -5
So Chapman isn't an option because he's a closer, but Holland who is also a closer, fits your idea of elite 8th inning arm? Yes because his agent Scott Boras has already came out and said that Holland is open to setting up for clubs as he works to rebuilds his value after Tommy John surgery. He's already willing to set up regardless of dollars figures. So your saying Chapman wouldn't take the largest offer if it meant being a set up guy? Hanley Ramirez was willing to change positions because Red Sox offered him the most money.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 11, 2016 3:12:30 GMT -5
Yes because his agent Scott Boras has already came out and said that Holland is open to setting up for clubs as he works to rebuilds his value after Tommy John surgery. He's already willing to set up regardless of dollars figures. So your saying Chapman wouldn't take the largest offer if it meant being a set up guy? Hanley Ramirez was willing to change positions because Red Sox offered him the most money. Yeap, especially if there's a opt out clause in his contract like predictably there will be. We discussed this 7 pages ago.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 11, 2016 3:18:44 GMT -5
No but you missed the point that he came out and said that he was directly looking at pitchers that can close last year. As in closer. Kimbrel is a closer and he was going to get a guy like that regardless of who we knew he was going after. That is the point. Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York.
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Post by bluechip on Nov 11, 2016 6:25:22 GMT -5
Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York. Andrew Miller took the largest deal even if it meant he was not guaranteed the closer role.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 7:04:52 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 11, 2016 7:43:15 GMT -5
Andrew Miller took the largest deal even if it meant he was not guaranteed the closer role. Andrew Miller signed as a guaranteed closer and was moved to a setup role a year later when they acquired Aroldis Chapman.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 11, 2016 11:31:02 GMT -5
No but you missed the point that he came out and said that he was directly looking at pitchers that can close last year. As in closer. Kimbrel is a closer and he was going to get a guy like that regardless of who we knew he was going after. That is the point. Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. Yeah, I agree. The only difference is that a "proven" closer gets paid more, because he's shown that he can finish games (not even that he's good in high-leverage situations). The ideal sign/trade is acquiring an elite arm who hasn't yet closed games, meaning he hasn't gotten the closer label yet, and the contract value that racking up saves demands. Koji is another great example: a guy signed as an elite- or near-elite level reliever. Gets the chance to close after Hanrahan and Bailey get hurt and Tazawa can't get the job done. Then pitches the ninth the same way he did the 7th/8th, and is awesome. If Dombrowski says "8th inning arm," I see it as coded language for "Kimbrel's our closer but I want another guy just as good, who can take his spot if the need arises." For that reason, I think Jansen, Chapman, and Melancon are outside shots (salary/willingness to not close) being the major issues. I think he'll try to get more value, and not take on a huge contract. But I absolutely agree that, in the new "market inefficiency of the awesome high-leverage guy," the "inning" labels are fungible. "8th-inning" means either really, really good but not elite, or it means stupid good but with a lower price tag because he has few/no career saves. DD's a smart guy, I think he'll go for door #2.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 11, 2016 11:34:45 GMT -5
On that note, what would the Braves want for Mauricio Cabrera?
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 11, 2016 11:35:34 GMT -5
I have a pretty good feeling that Joe Kelly will end up being the guy we want to sign now.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 11, 2016 12:33:15 GMT -5
That makes no sense at all. He's averaged less than 2 WAR per season and he's 28. Last year it was 1.1. Being very generous, that's worth less than $10 million. Add another win and it still isn't close to what he'll be asking for. He almost lost the last game for Chicago because he'd been overused. Moreover, given the volatility of relievers (see Kimbrel, Craig) this is just about guaranteed to be money down the drain. I'm sure he'll be well paid. I don't think it will be by the Sox unless everyone in the FO gets really stupid. I have his bwar total as 2.7, 1.9, 2.0 and 3.6 for the last 4 years. That's 2.55 bwars a year and if you believe fangraphs article, more like 3.55 bwars a year. I assumed, wrongly, that the Hide Partial link, would merge years for the Player Value table. So last year should include his stint with NY as was pointed out. By the same token you need to broaden your selection, no? Since he started a regular gig with Cincinnati in 2011, he's averaged 2.2 WAR. Since. Let's roll with that. That still takes you to a very marginal return on investment if he's really looking to bust over the $100 million mark, and that's on the assumption of an extra win. As I wrote previously, good practice would have them clearing the books of lousy contracts before taking on more debt. They do have a lot of money, all the teams do no matter what they say. MLBAM is a gold mine at this point. But should it be stupid money? They still have to run a business.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 14:44:00 GMT -5
I have his bwar total as 2.7, 1.9, 2.0 and 3.6 for the last 4 years. That's 2.55 bwars a year and if you believe fangraphs article, more like 3.55 bwars a year. I assumed, wrongly, that the Hide Partial link, would merge years for the Player Value table. So last year should include his stint with NY as was pointed out. By the same token you need to broaden your selection, no? Since he started a regular gig with Cincinnati in 2011, he's averaged 2.2 WAR. Since. Let's roll with that. That still takes you to a very marginal return on investment if he's really looking to bust over the $100 million mark, and that's on the assumption of an extra win. As I wrote previously, good practice would have them clearing the books of lousy contracts before taking on more debt. They do have a lot of money, all the teams do no matter what they say. MLBAM is a gold mine at this point. But should it be stupid money? They still have to run a business. As was said by a mod yesterday, you are cherry-picking numbers to support your case. 2011 was his rookie year, he only had like 13 innings in 2010 and thus it has no value in predicting future performance as it's clearly an outlier. Well it's marginal return using the price per war of last year, that should rise this year and for the next 5 years. Also at 28 a 5 year deal gives you what should be prime year, without the down years a starter or positional player would have signing a 7, 8 or even 10 year deal. As I've said before I would trade Clay, in a market without any starters he should have decent value. At this point I don't see trading Sandoval as a real option. You'd have to eat a huge amount of money or trade him for another big contract. Let him come to spring training, show other clubs he's in shape and healthy. A good spring training and some club with an injury or big need might take him and pay most of his salary. He also adds depth in case we have an injury. Outside of Sandoval what other lousy contracts do we have that we can get rid of? Castillo has such negative value at this point i'm not sure you could get another team to pick up more than 5 million in money and at that level what's the point? I'd rather keep him in minors and hope he can learn to hit off speed pitches. He doesn't count against salary cap. Would it be stupid money? Maybe and maybe not. Royals gave Kennedy 70 million, we gave Castillo what 80 million, that was stupid money. 100 million for Chapman looks really good compared to other deals that have been made. I don't think we'll do it, this all started because I said if we're going to give 100 million plus to EE, I'd rather we spend it on Chapman.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 15:00:33 GMT -5
Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York. Not all pitchers are that way. Miller was Yankees closer, they got Chapman and he had no problem being a set up man again. Went to Indians and was pitching in 6,7 and 8th innings and said I will pitch wherever the team needs me to. If he wanted to be a closer, he could have voiced that opinion and maybe Yankees trade him to team were he could be a closer. Other players are done those things, but he didn't care. Miller not being a closer hasn't effected his value one bit this year, if anything his value is even higher now, than last year. Unless the Yankees blow everyone away, I think he goes back to Cubs. He just won a championship and they gave up so much to get him, that they have to really try and bring him back. I wonder what people will think about Theo if he gives Chapman 100 million. These aren't the Yankees of the past, they are rebuilding. Unless they make some bold trades for players like Sale, they aren't contending next year.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 11, 2016 15:44:35 GMT -5
Sign Rich Hill. Trade Clay for a quality young bullpen arm with control years, and/or prospects. Probably salary-neutral for 2017. No lost draft pick. Wright becomes the swingman. Bullpen complete.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 11, 2016 15:58:38 GMT -5
No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York. Not all pitchers are that way. Miller was Yankees closer, they got Chapman and he had no problem being a set up man again. Went to Indians and was pitching in 6,7 and 8th innings and said I will pitch wherever the team needs me to. If he wanted to be a closer, he could have voiced that opinion and maybe Yankees trade him to team were he could be a closer. Other players are done those things, but he didn't care. Miller not being a closer hasn't effected his value one bit this year, if anything his value is even higher now, than last year. Unless the Yankees blow everyone away, I think he goes back to Cubs. He just won a championship and they gave up so much to get him, that they have to really try and bring him back. I wonder what people will think about Theo if he gives Chapman 100 million. These aren't the Yankees of the past, they are rebuilding. Unless they make some bold trades for players like Sale, they aren't contending next year. There is no way that Theo pays that much for a relief pitcher.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 11, 2016 16:14:29 GMT -5
Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales. Bye bye Encarnacion.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 16:30:18 GMT -5
Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales. Bye bye Encarnacion. Yea he got 3 years 33 million .
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Post by soxjim on Nov 11, 2016 17:11:50 GMT -5
Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York.What do you think of the Yanks starting pitching? Overall their hitting wasn't good and especially their power. Thus there is word out that they are going to make a play for your man, EE. They may go after Chapman - but on the other hand -- they have a lot of questions and holes. Too many games Chapman can't impact. because of the Yanks sub-par starters and their young unproven / potentially weak and light hitting. If the Yanks end up paying a huge salary for Chapman- I hope teams like the Sox drive up their price. If I'm the Yanks I'd pass on Chapman until I get my starters in order.
And imo Chapman will wither go tot the highest bidder or maybe take slightly less in order to be a contender. But first and foremost is the money. Secondary is role of closer.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 11, 2016 17:22:57 GMT -5
Blue Jays signed Kendrys Morales. Bye bye Encarnacion. Yea he got 3 years 33 million . Anyone else wonder if Encarnacion gets Nelson Cruzed? Or maybe more like Cespedesed? I'm just it sure how many teams out there are willing to bid big on a DH-only 34 y/o whose numbers look like they're slowly eroding (and whose skillset does not age well). His 5/120 dreams seem more and more ludicrous as guys like Morales sign for half the AAV and fewer years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 17:47:31 GMT -5
Yea he got 3 years 33 million . Anyone else wonder if Encarnacion gets Nelson Cruzed? Or maybe more like Cespedesed? I'm just it sure how many teams out there are willing to bid big on a DH-only 34 y/o whose numbers look like they're slowly eroding (and whose skillset does not age well). His 5/120 dreams seem more and more ludicrous as guys like Morales sign for half the AAV and fewer years. In a normal year I think that could happen. This year free agent market is so bad that I have to think he gets paid. Maybe it's a little less than we think, but I would be shocked if he didn't get a multi year deal for big money. Last year Cespedes seemed to get left behind because of all the other stars on the market. I also think his demands were very high given his past production. Given his two very good years in a row, he'll get paid this year. Edit- Morales last 3 years bwars -.3, 2.4 and .9 for an average of 1 war a year. Even if you look at just last 2 years it's 1.65 a year. EE is. 3.6, 4.7 and 3.7. That's an average of 4 bwars a year. EE has been more than twice the player Morales has been.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 11, 2016 17:54:00 GMT -5
I guess I have to assume that any changes in the CBA would not be implemented until 2018 since it would be insane to have two sets of rules govern one offseason. Like for example if they get rid of losing a pick for signing FAs.
The current CBA expires on 12/1 so I'm not sure if they extend it temporarily, run without one or start a lockout. It's really weird that there is no discussion on it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 11, 2016 20:03:01 GMT -5
I guess I have to assume that any changes in the CBA would not be implemented until 2018 since it would be insane to have two sets of rules govern one offseason. Like for example if they get rid of losing a pick for signing FAs. The current CBA expires on 12/1 so I'm not sure if they extend it temporarily, run without one or start a lockout. It's really weird that there is no discussion on it. The only discussion is that GMs are likely to hold off on free agents (or potential free agents next year in trades) until the CBA is a done deal. From what I've seen, there doesn't appear to be any major hurdles here, it's expected to be fairly smooth.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 11, 2016 22:26:55 GMT -5
I assumed, wrongly, that the Hide Partial link, would merge years for the Player Value table. So last year should include his stint with NY as was pointed out. By the same token you need to broaden your selection, no? Since he started a regular gig with Cincinnati in 2011, he's averaged 2.2 WAR. Since. Let's roll with that. That still takes you to a very marginal return on investment if he's really looking to bust over the $100 million mark, and that's on the assumption of an extra win. As I wrote previously, good practice would have them clearing the books of lousy contracts before taking on more debt. They do have a lot of money, all the teams do no matter what they say. MLBAM is a gold mine at this point. But should it be stupid money? They still have to run a business. As was said by a mod yesterday, you are cherry-picking numbers to support your case. 2011 was his rookie year, he only had like 13 innings in 2010 and thus it has no value in predicting future performance as it's clearly an outlier. Well it's marginal return using the price per war of last year, that should rise this year and for the next 5 years. Also at 28 a 5 year deal gives you what should be prime year, without the down years a starter or positional player would have signing a 7, 8 or even 10 year deal. As I've said before I would trade Clay, in a market without any starters he should have decent value. At this point I don't see trading Sandoval as a real option. You'd have to eat a huge amount of money or trade him for another big contract. Let him come to spring training, show other clubs he's in shape and healthy. A good spring training and some club with an injury or big need might take him and pay most of his salary. He also adds depth in case we have an injury. Outside of Sandoval what other lousy contracts do we have that we can get rid of? Castillo has such negative value at this point i'm not sure you could get another team to pick up more than 5 million in money and at that level what's the point? I'd rather keep him in minors and hope he can learn to hit off speed pitches. He doesn't count against salary cap. Would it be stupid money? Maybe and maybe not. Royals gave Kennedy 70 million, we gave Castillo what 80 million, that was stupid money. 100 million for Chapman looks really good compared to other deals that have been made. I don't think we'll do it, this all started because I said if we're going to give 100 million plus to EE, I'd rather we spend it on Chapman. Look, go back and check the numbers - please - or stop posting about stuff you have wrong if you won't admit it. I didn't include 2010. Since 2011, when he pitched a healty 50 innings as a reliever, he's averaged 2.2 WAR. I'm not making it up and you shouldn't either. He's asking for money that may take him into the downside of his career. It's a gamble, one that's on the fringes of his value. That's the reality.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 11, 2016 22:49:28 GMT -5
As was said by a mod yesterday, you are cherry-picking numbers to support your case. 2011 was his rookie year, he only had like 13 innings in 2010 and thus it has no value in predicting future performance as it's clearly an outlier. Well it's marginal return using the price per war of last year, that should rise this year and for the next 5 years. Also at 28 a 5 year deal gives you what should be prime year, without the down years a starter or positional player would have signing a 7, 8 or even 10 year deal. As I've said before I would trade Clay, in a market without any starters he should have decent value. At this point I don't see trading Sandoval as a real option. You'd have to eat a huge amount of money or trade him for another big contract. Let him come to spring training, show other clubs he's in shape and healthy. A good spring training and some club with an injury or big need might take him and pay most of his salary. He also adds depth in case we have an injury. Outside of Sandoval what other lousy contracts do we have that we can get rid of? Castillo has such negative value at this point i'm not sure you could get another team to pick up more than 5 million in money and at that level what's the point? I'd rather keep him in minors and hope he can learn to hit off speed pitches. He doesn't count against salary cap. Would it be stupid money? Maybe and maybe not. Royals gave Kennedy 70 million, we gave Castillo what 80 million, that was stupid money. 100 million for Chapman looks really good compared to other deals that have been made. I don't think we'll do it, this all started because I said if we're going to give 100 million plus to EE, I'd rather we spend it on Chapman. Look, go back and check the numbers - please - or stop posting about stuff you have wrong if you won't admit it. I didn't include 2010. Since 2011, when he pitched a healty 50 innings as a reliever, he's averaged 2.2 WAR. I'm not making it up and you shouldn't either. He's asking for money that may take him into the downside of his career. It's a gamble, one that's on the fringes of his value. That's the reality. You Mods are way to funny. I never once said the numbers were wrong, I said it had no value in predicting future performance because it was his rookie year, that is clearly an outlier. As another Mod said yesterday, when I was talking about Ortiz and JD Martinez, your cherry picking numbers to help prove your point that you don't think his war numbers will as high as I do going forward. It's so funny your the only one that's posted wrong numbers, no biggie it happens, but do you really need to be on a power trip and tell me to stop posting?
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