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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by telson13 on Nov 12, 2016 0:57:03 GMT -5
Yea, no one is debating that. You said we weren't going after a closer because there were no reports tying us to one this year and my point is that there were no reports tying us to any relievers DD got last year. I mean Wade Davis is a set up guy for the most part outside of this year, do you really think DD wouldn't have acquired him last season rather than Kimbrel if he could have been had for less? You really think he would have been like nope can't trade for you, I said we needed a closer. Closers and elite 8th innings guys are interchangeable. Look around the league and you will find guys that were set up guys and became closer and former closer that became set up guys. Perfect example Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Andrew Miller. Elite relievers are elite relievers, your getting way to hung up on labels. No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York. If love to see NY spend a ton on Chapman. Their rotation is so iffy right now that without Miller, and some better offense, they're not going to win many games. Now, if they flip Torres and Frazier to the A's for Sonny Gray, or a few moves along those lines, maybe it's a different story. But they've got some big holes to fill before a back-end relief option really makes much difference at all.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 12, 2016 0:58:13 GMT -5
Notice the Marlins' and Yankees' totals. Yikes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2016 1:34:36 GMT -5
Notice the Marlins' and Yankees' totals. Yikes. Wow, sure hope they have no control. That is a lot of flamethrowers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 12, 2016 4:30:35 GMT -5
Nate Jones is a decent set up option, is cost controlled and might be available if the White Sox sell off. He'd likely cost a decent prospect or two but not one of our prizes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 12, 2016 7:49:32 GMT -5
No you're still missing the point. It's not my labels. These pitchers like to have the roles that they prefer. Generally closers are your best relievers. These are the relievers that get paid the most. Chapman won't take more money to set up versus close especially if there's a opt out in his deal, so he can go get more money a few years from now again possibly. The Red Sox aren't going to be rumored, be associated, be in the conversation for Chapman this off-season. This is a guarantee. Edit- This whole conversation is mindless and pointless. The Yankees aren't going to let their number one target this off-season in Chapman go to the Red Sox. I don't really care what DD says or does. The Yankees are getting Chapman this off-season all over again because they will offer him the most money because the are New York.What do you think of the Yanks starting pitching? Overall their hitting wasn't good and especially their power. Thus there is word out that they are going to make a play for your man, EE. They may go after Chapman - but on the other hand -- they have a lot of questions and holes. Too many games Chapman can't impact. because of the Yanks sub-par starters and their young unproven / potentially weak and light hitting. If the Yanks end up paying a huge salary for Chapman- I hope teams like the Sox drive up their price. If I'm the Yanks I'd pass on Chapman until I get my starters in order.
And imo Chapman will wither go tot the highest bidder or maybe take slightly less in order to be a contender. But first and foremost is the money. Secondary is role of closer.
The Yankees will be no doubt the highest bidder for Chapman, especially since he's got no pick attached which the Yankees should be prioritizing with a mid first round pick next year. This is the number of contracts that have come off the books this past year- Miller (9 million a year) Chapman (11 million in his last arbitration year, with a suspension) Texeira (25 million a year) Beltran (15 million a year) That's 60 million in AAV. That's without trading McCann yet, who could shed another10+ million off the books if traded. They also have Arod off the books next year at 27 million and and CC Sabathia coming off either the next year or the year after with the vesting option at 20+ million a year. That's 120+ million dollars in AAV coming off the books in the next two years potentially. The Yankees are going to be a pain with all their spending soon. Every Sox fan should kiss their Chapman dreams right now as we speak.
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Post by fan72 on Nov 12, 2016 8:56:45 GMT -5
I think the Yankees big spending will come in the 2017 and 18 off seasons, when the free agent classes are much stronger. They probably realize they are a couple of years away from being serious contenders, why spend the money now when you will have a boatload to spend later, when it will mean more. Do not think they will be the high bidders for Chapman, especially with the very motivated Giants involved, along with the Dodgers, Nats, and Cubs.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 12, 2016 11:31:58 GMT -5
Notice the Marlins' and Yankees' totals. Yikes. Wow, sure hope they have no control. That is a lot of flamethrowers. I continue to maintain that in a few years baseball will move the mound back in adjustment.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 12, 2016 13:20:09 GMT -5
What do you think of the Yanks starting pitching? Overall their hitting wasn't good and especially their power. Thus there is word out that they are going to make a play for your man, EE. They may go after Chapman - but on the other hand -- they have a lot of questions and holes. Too many games Chapman can't impact. because of the Yanks sub-par starters and their young unproven / potentially weak and light hitting. If the Yanks end up paying a huge salary for Chapman- I hope teams like the Sox drive up their price. If I'm the Yanks I'd pass on Chapman until I get my starters in order.
And imo Chapman will wither go tot the highest bidder or maybe take slightly less in order to be a contender. But first and foremost is the money. Secondary is role of closer.
The Yankees will be no doubt the highest bidder for Chapman, especially since he's got no pick attached which the Yankees should be prioritizing with a mid first round pick next year. This is the number of contracts that have come off the books this past year- Miller (9 million a year) Chapman (11 million in his last arbitration year, with a suspension) Texeira (25 million a year) Beltran (15 million a year) That's 60 million in AAV. That's without trading McCann yet, who could shed another10+ million off the books if traded. They also have Arod off the books next year at 27 million and and CC Sabathia coming off either the next year or the year after with the vesting option at 20+ million a year. That's 120+ million dollars in AAV coming off the books in the next two years potentially. The Yankees are going to be a pain with all their spending soon. Every Sox fan should kiss their Chapman dreams right now as we speak. I don't believe "the no doubt part." Again-- the Yanks aren't yet close to being a title contender and even a playoff team is a stretch, right? So "no doubt" they are going to overspend for a primary one inning pitcher? How do you propose they are going to get the leads with the starting staff they have?
And do you think the Yanks are a playoff contender with Chapman with the starters they have and the hitting they had - which was terrible too?
You could be right. But as I said they could also go hard after EE.
www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2016/10/mlb_rumors_yankees_could_vie_for_edwin_encarnacion.html
In the 1st sentences what is Brian Cashman saying? He is saying "Our offense was bad." While it does also say the Red Sox are the most likely landing spot fro EE (I hope not and don't necessarily agree). Then again we've heard from others that the Red Sox might not want to go after the big bat after all (I hope so). Further as the below indicates - the Red Six aren't gung-ho on long terms deals which a guy like EE wants.
chowderandchampions.com/2016/11/09/red-sox-targets-2016-team-wants-free-agent-carlos-beltran-badly/
Because of the Red Sox having so many young players, they can target one player and have a decent shot to get him. A team like the Yanks have a lot of needs. I'm just not sold on your "no doubt."
I'm hopeful the Sox go cheap this year other than get one big time closer and trade the current one and at least one cheap righty bat. See if anyone who was hurt or had a sub-par year can step up for this year. No need to panic. The lower our salary is, the better chance we have of landing a super super chip during trade deadline or next year offseason. If they go big- I hope the target the stud relievers rather than EE. Maybe the Yanks are just as likely to give up their 1st round pick and go after EE to protect Sanchez rather than let Sanchez swim on his own.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 2:26:09 GMT -5
I sincerely hope neither of these scenarios comes to fruition. Trading Benintendi for just about anyone seems remarkably silly to me; I only see his value going up. As for JBJ, well, it'd better be a clear win for the Sox, because you're talking about a 5-WAR player in CF who costs near to nothing right now. Even, say, a straight-up for Sale: is Sale really that much more valuable than the pitcher he'd replace than what they'd lose putting Benintendi in CF and having to find a LF? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-awards-voting-benintendi-beresford-kuhl-more/
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2016 9:23:59 GMT -5
I sincerely hope neither of these scenarios comes to fruition. Trading Benintendi for just about anyone seems remarkably silly to me; I only see his value going up. As for JBJ, well, it'd better be a clear win for the Sox, because you're talking about a 5-WAR player in CF who costs near to nothing right now. Even, say, a straight-up for Sale: is Sale really that much more valuable than the pitcher he'd replace than what they'd lose putting Benintendi in CF and having to find a LF? www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-awards-voting-benintendi-beresford-kuhl-more/I'd favor a JBJ for Sale swap, although I doubt it would be one on one. I think it's easier to get a competent LF bat and survive the defensive difference. I think with pitching injuries and attrition, Sale would have more value over his replacement (and the ripple effect on the pen would need to be taken into consideration) than replacing Bradley with a competent corner OF. Unfortunately I think the ChiSox would require E-Rod in the deal and they really don't have a corner OF that would fit the Sox needs. Would they deal Eaton? I think E-Rod and JBJ for Sale and Eaton would make sense as a deal, but I don't know that either side makes that deal. At least I don't think the White Sox do because E-Rod hasn't "proven" himself yet (and I would prefer the Sox deal Pomeranz instead but that wouldn't happen). And I think the Dombrowski does value E-Rod as a top of the rotation type starter. There's another reason why the ChiSox would not likely include a player of consequence in addition to Sale and that's because in the pyramid of trade value unless you're receiving Mike Trout in return, the most valuable commodity in baseball is a young cost controlled proven ace (one that's a lefty, too) under contract for a few more years.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 13, 2016 9:38:22 GMT -5
Here's my thought, and it's something that's been echoed by others and has been talked about on a few of the podcasts as well. There are four spots for Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers. It would be possible to go with either Moncada or Devers at first base, but that seems less optimal than what you could get back in a trade to a team that would play one of the five further over on the defensive spectrum. So I eliminate trading Betts, and think seriously about moving any one of the other four. Getting Chris Sale back for one of them seems like at least the basis of a deal that would maximize the value on hand.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 13, 2016 10:28:07 GMT -5
Here's my thought, and it's something that's been echoed by others and has been talked about on a few of the podcasts as well. There are four spots for Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers. It would be possible to go with either Moncada or Devers at first base, but that seems less optimal than what you could get back in a trade to a team that would play one of the five further over on the defensive spectrum. So I eliminate trading Betts, and think seriously about moving any one of the other four. Getting Chris Sale back for one of them seems like at least the basis of a deal that would maximize the value on hand. I would think between Bradley, Devers, Moncada, and Benintendi, that Bradley is the one to deal. He's established and ready which can be a big selling point, elite defensively, too and reasonably priced with four more years of control left. The Red Sox already have 2 CFs in the outfield with Betts and Benintendi, and Moncada would probably be a capable OF with blazing speed and athleticism if given experience in the outfield. That would open up 3b for Devers down the line, which is his natural position and he's become a good 3b from what I've read. I also think that Bradley has the lowest ceiling of the four or at least it would be between him and Devers. I think getting a Sale for Bradley makes a lot of sense. I just don't think that it would be that simple, though, but the basis for a deal would be there. I just don't think the White Sox make that type of 1 on 1 value swap. They need to "win" the deal or it's just a lateral move for them. Their drop down from Sale to replacement pitcher is a lot steeper than a drop down of Bradley from a LH bat/Chris Young platoon (and defensive value).
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Post by soxjim on Nov 13, 2016 11:05:42 GMT -5
I am hopeful the Red Sox could keep all of JBJ, Moncada, Devers, Beni and ofc Betts (and ERod) unless it is a one-for-one or one plus a not so good throw-in player. Just say no to gutting our youth. There is nothing wrong with keeping 5 good baseball players in which they are currently cheap and they can play different positions. And do whatever you can to sign Betts long-term.
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Post by jdb on Nov 13, 2016 12:00:06 GMT -5
I still don't know what to make of JBJ and think if he is traded it's selling high. His Fangraphs projections have him coming back to earth a little and if it's 1-1 for Sale I think I'd do that if we needed a starter. Moncado might be an OFer too.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2016 14:15:53 GMT -5
I still don't know what to make of JBJ and think if he is traded it's selling high. His Fangraphs projections have him coming back to earth a little and if it's 1-1 for Sale I think I'd do that if we needed a starter. Moncado might be an OFer too. Just a guess but any deal getting Sale will require Kopech unless Mookie or Xander is involved.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2016 14:31:59 GMT -5
I still don't know what to make of JBJ and think if he is traded it's selling high. His Fangraphs projections have him coming back to earth a little and if it's 1-1 for Sale I think I'd do that if we needed a starter. Moncado might be an OFer too. Just a guess but any deal getting Sale will require Kopech unless Mookie or Xander is involved. Yeah, one of ERod, Kopech or Groome would be a part of it. I really don't even want to hear the rumors because they're going to be ridiculous as usual.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 13, 2016 16:34:18 GMT -5
Just a guess but any deal getting Sale will require Kopech unless Mookie or Xander is involved. Yeah, one of ERod, Kopech or Groome would be a part of it. I really don't even want to hear the rumors because they're going to be ridiculous as usual. Agreed. And of that group, Groome is the one I'd part with, only because he's furthest away.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 13, 2016 17:05:46 GMT -5
Here's my thought, and it's something that's been echoed by others and has been talked about on a few of the podcasts as well. There are four spots for Betts, Bradley, Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers. It would be possible to go with either Moncada or Devers at first base, but that seems less optimal than what you could get back in a trade to a team that would play one of the five further over on the defensive spectrum. So I eliminate trading Betts, and think seriously about moving any one of the other four. Getting Chris Sale back for one of them seems like at least the basis of a deal that would maximize the value on hand. I'm all for that, but preferably not until Moncada/Devers/Benintendi all show definitively that they can play MLB at an above-average level (or, with Devers, at least a strong indication). Because while fundamentally I agree, that's a plan with significant risk. I also don't see Sale as much better than Rodriguez in 2 years. So 1-for-1, maybe, but not until this coming deadline and only if Benintendi, Moncada, and Devers are looking good.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 10:33:49 GMT -5
Yeah, one of ERod, Kopech or Groome would be a part of it. I really don't even want to hear the rumors because they're going to be ridiculous as usual. Agreed. And of that group, Groome is the one I'd part with, only because he's furthest away. Groome can't be traded, less than a year and MLB warned about including such players as PTBNL.
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 14, 2016 10:48:40 GMT -5
Agreed. And of that group, Groome is the one I'd part with, only because he's furthest away. Groome can't be traded, less than a year and MLB warned about including such players as PTBNL. Didn't they change that rule after the Trea Turner fiasco? Pretty sure new draftees are able to be traded once the post season ends.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 11:09:55 GMT -5
Groome can't be traded, less than a year and MLB warned about including such players as PTBNL. Didn't they change that rule after the Trea Turner fiasco? Pretty sure new draftees are able to be traded once the post season ends. I don't think so, that'd be a CBA issue. I know they warned though about penalties. LOL, we have a lot of attorney's here, maybe one has a definitive answer.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 14, 2016 11:10:05 GMT -5
Yep, that rule no longer applies. A player can now be traded in the offseason after he is drafted, and the rule against including him as a PTBNL in trades taking place during the restricted period is now official. The Red Sox traded Logan Allen last year under then new rules.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2016 11:16:57 GMT -5
OK, I didn't realize that. I still wouldn't give up the kind of package it'll take to get Sale to actually get him but of the three Groome would be my preference, it's a long long road. (In years past, I've been on the other side of the Sale coin, he's pretty much been my #1 wishlist guy).
The Yankees seem like a more likely destination, they're history is trading prospects, have significant holes in their rotation and they now have a lot of prospects to trade.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 14, 2016 16:30:21 GMT -5
The first player traded under the new rules was Logan Allen.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 14, 2016 18:12:02 GMT -5
Groome can't be traded, less than a year and MLB warned about including such players as PTBNL. Didn't they change that rule after the Trea Turner fiasco? Pretty sure new draftees are able to be traded once the post season ends. Yup.
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