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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by larrycook on Nov 14, 2016 23:11:27 GMT -5
If the red sox sign Boone Logan and Greg Holland, is that enough to make our 2017 bullpen better than last year, especially since smith could be back in June?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 14, 2016 23:27:49 GMT -5
If the red sox sign Boone Logan and Greg Holland, is that enough to make our 2017 bullpen better than last year, especially since smith could be back in June? I don't see how the Sox are actually in play for Logan now that they tendered a contract for Abad. Holland is definitely the best option for now and I'd resign Koji too but Dave has come out and said that he's only looking for one arm this off-season.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2016 0:44:26 GMT -5
Brett Cecil?
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2016 0:47:58 GMT -5
He's younger than Logan, has more pitches, a much better performance track record, and is coming off a down year. They're both LH with similar velocity. But yes, unfortunately...Abad.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 15, 2016 0:52:48 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Nov 15, 2016 1:01:49 GMT -5
Or another thought...just like Holliday, Justin Turner is probably undervalued, and a good bet to bring value at the upcoming trade deadline should the team go that route. He's a plus defender with real power. If the Sox signed him, they could DH/1b Hanley and trade Shaw. Turner would cost a draft pick, but if (when) Moncada/Devers are ready, Turner's contract would be easily moveable if he gets in the range of market prediction (4/70). RH power and premium defense at 3b is NOT a tough sell, and he's a fair bet to benefit from Fenway and the AL East parks (other than the Trop) in general. He'd cost a draft pick, but they could absolutely recoup more than the equivalent of #36, AND whatever Shaw would bring. If Moncada doesn't look ready, Turner could easily be flipped next winter, or the following June/July. In the meantime (especially if Shaw is stashed in AAA instead of traded), they'd replace a good bit of Papi's production, dramatically improve their CIF depth, bridge to their two ultra-premium 3b prospects, and get an undervalued player who would probably boost his trade value while in Boston.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 15, 2016 1:04:20 GMT -5
On the Bright side Abad can't get any worse.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 15, 2016 4:22:55 GMT -5
He's younger than Logan, has more pitches, a much better performance track record, and is coming off a down year. They're both LH with similar velocity. But yes, unfortunately...Abad. I don't get it. The Sox tender Abad who will probably make close to 2 million this year. For 3 million dollars more probably, they could of had Koji back instead. What a huge downgrade in high leverage innings that is. Koji is made out of stone and Abad is made out of paper machete. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Abad outperformed Koji on paper at least from a basic stat argument. Koji might not have a full season of health in him at the age of 42, especially with Farrell as a manager. Actually Koji might have a better chance to stay healthier now that Farrell might not have the "privilege" of abusing his arm anymore.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 15, 2016 14:29:57 GMT -5
MiLB Roster Tracker @milb_Tracker 6 min. Red Sox ( redsox) have re-signed RHP Jacob Dahlstrand to a minor league contract. Played for @portlandseadogs and lowellspinners in 2016.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 15, 2016 22:41:16 GMT -5
Justin Wilson would of been a good guy to go after for the right price if the Sox didn't tender Abad. Ohh well I suppose.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 15, 2016 23:24:31 GMT -5
Why do you keep talking about possible future transactions in the past tense?
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Post by jmei on Nov 15, 2016 23:49:24 GMT -5
The fact that Abad was tendered a contract does not mean he's a roster lock. He can be DFAed with minimal financial impact.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2016 0:08:55 GMT -5
Why do you keep talking about possible future transactions in the past tense? Just felt the Sox could of used 2 bullpen additions (either a lhp or Koji) without the use of tendering Abad. Dave D. only sees room for one more arm in the bullpen through his quotes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2016 0:10:56 GMT -5
Why would Atlanta be trying to get Chris Sale if they're not close to contending yet?
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Post by telson13 on Nov 16, 2016 2:54:40 GMT -5
Zack Greinke is apparently on the trade block. If the Sox could shed salary (Panda/Castillo), what else would you consider giving up for him? Or at all? Would he really be an upgrade over Pomeranz? Personally, I'm not sold, although it might be worth a deal depending on the $. Panda might welcome a move back to the NL, and another hitter's park. Castillo looks like dead weight at this point. But Greinke has a huge contract and some big question marks.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 16, 2016 2:57:39 GMT -5
Why would Atlanta be trying to get Chris Sale if they're not close to contending yet? Well, they signed Dickey and Colon, and have a ton of young talent breaking in with Cabrera, Albies, Swanson, etc. So maybe in the NL East, they figure they have a chance. Does seem a little premature, but the haul they got for Shelby Miller, plus the Toussaint pickup, gave them one of the best minor league systems in baseball.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 16, 2016 8:30:35 GMT -5
Why would Atlanta be trying to get Chris Sale if they're not close to contending yet? New stadium
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 16, 2016 10:49:18 GMT -5
Why is everyone saying they tendered a contract to Abad? They haven't yet - the non-tender deadline isn't until the first week of December. Did I miss them tendering contracts already?
EDIT: To be clear, I know Dombrowski said they're going to, but it hasn't happened yet, right?
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 16, 2016 12:32:52 GMT -5
Pretty sure they haven't tendered him a contract yet, it was just DD saying they would. I could easily see him changing his mind if a better option is available by December.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 16, 2016 13:38:30 GMT -5
Zack Greinke is apparently on the trade block. If the Sox could shed salary (Panda/Castillo), what else would you consider giving up for him? Or at all? Would he really be an upgrade over Pomeranz? Personally, I'm not sold, although it might be worth a deal depending on the $. Panda might welcome a move back to the NL, and another hitter's park. Castillo looks like dead weight at this point. But Greinke has a huge contract and some big question marks. They want to trade him because they are going to spend 100 million on payroll this year. No way they take back both contracts, it would save them like 5 million for the next 3 years. Instead of eating money they might take Castillo but you'd have to send them a very good package of prospects. No thanks, not at his age with that long term deal. Also with this year's free agent market having almost no pitchers, teams will be after him. So your not going to get him for almost nothing. The only way I would consider it, they take Sandoval and Clay contracts, we send them some B level prospects. They hope they can trade Clay for prospects at deadline and that Sandoval bounces back and they can trade him. I don't see it happening, but taking 70 million off his contact makes it 5 years 100 million. You would have a ton of money in Grienke, Price and Porcello.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 16, 2016 14:40:31 GMT -5
Zack Greinke is apparently on the trade block. If the Sox could shed salary (Panda/Castillo), what else would you consider giving up for him? Or at all? Would he really be an upgrade over Pomeranz? Personally, I'm not sold, although it might be worth a deal depending on the $. Panda might welcome a move back to the NL, and another hitter's park. Castillo looks like dead weight at this point. But Greinke has a huge contract and some big question marks. They want to trade him because they are going to spend 100 million on payroll this year. No way they take back both contracts, it would save them like 5 million for the next 3 years. Instead of eating money they might take Castillo but you'd have to send them a very good package of prospects. No thanks, not at his age with that long term deal. Also with this year's free agent market having almost no pitchers, teams will be after him. So your not going to get him for almost nothing. The only way I would consider it, they take Sandoval and Clay contracts, we send them some B level prospects. They hope they can trade Clay for prospects at deadline and that Sandoval bounces back and they can trade him. I don't see it happening, but taking 70 million off his contact makes it 5 years 100 million. You would have a ton of money in Grienke, Price and Porcello. Just to clarify, the slash is an "or" not an "and." I'd have used "and" or an ampersand instead of the slash if I'd meant both. It would be highly unlikely that AZ would take both contracts. He's lost value after last year, so I'm not sure what the market will bear. He's old enough now that people are probably buying his performance as skill degradation and not just an off year. Tough to see a team drop $150M and prospects on a #3 starter. Even with the short-term savings, it's a ton of money for a pitcher who probably won't be very good after the short-term salary dump is over. Which is why I don't like it. I'm not sure even a 3-year salary at $10-12M would be worth it (Sandoval going the other way) given the massive cost at the other end, and the fact that he's not even a high-liklihood bet to bounce back. I'm just curious if anyone can come up with a viable exchange, or really even a team where he'd fit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 16, 2016 15:05:22 GMT -5
They want to trade him because they are going to spend 100 million on payroll this year. No way they take back both contracts, it would save them like 5 million for the next 3 years. Instead of eating money they might take Castillo but you'd have to send them a very good package of prospects. No thanks, not at his age with that long term deal. Also with this year's free agent market having almost no pitchers, teams will be after him. So your not going to get him for almost nothing. The only way I would consider it, they take Sandoval and Clay contracts, we send them some B level prospects. They hope they can trade Clay for prospects at deadline and that Sandoval bounces back and they can trade him. I don't see it happening, but taking 70 million off his contact makes it 5 years 100 million. You would have a ton of money in Grienke, Price and Porcello. Just to clarify, the slash is an "or" not an "and." I'd have used "and" or an ampersand instead of the slash if I'd meant both. It would be highly unlikely that AZ would take both contracts. He's lost value after last year, so I'm not sure what the market will bear. He's old enough now that people are probably buying his performance as skill degradation and not just an off year. Tough to see a team drop $150M and prospects on a #3 starter. Even with the short-term savings, it's a ton of money for a pitcher who probably won't be very good after the short-term salary dump is over. Which is why I don't like it. I'm not sure even a 3-year salary at $10-12M would be worth it (Sandoval going the other way) given the massive cost at the other end, and the fact that he's not even a high-liklihood bet to bounce back. I'm just curious if anyone can come up with a viable exchange, or really even a team where he'd fit. I wouldn't bet against Grienke. The reason he got that deal is that people think he'll age better than your average starter. If I had to bet on Grienke or Price being very good in their mid to late 30s I would bet on Grienke. It all depends on how much his team will eat or take back in bad contracts. If they really want to move him they will. I wouldn't rule out Dodgers, I can see a deal being made there.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2016 16:28:04 GMT -5
Why is everyone saying they tendered a contract to Abad? They haven't yet - the non-tender deadline isn't until the first week of December. Did I miss them tendering contracts already? EDIT: To be clear, I know Dombrowski said they're going to, but it hasn't happened yet, right? Abad did have a remarkably coherent year. Among 222 MLB relievers with 30+ IP, he was 1.01 standard deviations below average in SIERA, the most basic measure of underlying quality, and 1.03 SD below average in leverage-adjusted WPA / G, the ultimate measure of results. Furthermore, among the 49 LHR, he ranked 44th and 43rd, respectively. The combination ranked 47th.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 16, 2016 19:50:48 GMT -5
Just to clarify, the slash is an "or" not an "and." I'd have used "and" or an ampersand instead of the slash if I'd meant both. It would be highly unlikely that AZ would take both contracts. He's lost value after last year, so I'm not sure what the market will bear. He's old enough now that people are probably buying his performance as skill degradation and not just an off year. Tough to see a team drop $150M and prospects on a #3 starter. Even with the short-term savings, it's a ton of money for a pitcher who probably won't be very good after the short-term salary dump is over. Which is why I don't like it. I'm not sure even a 3-year salary at $10-12M would be worth it (Sandoval going the other way) given the massive cost at the other end, and the fact that he's not even a high-liklihood bet to bounce back. I'm just curious if anyone can come up with a viable exchange, or really even a team where he'd fit. I wouldn't bet against Grienke. The reason he got that deal is that people think he'll age better than your average starter. If I had to bet on Grienke or Price being very good in their mid to late 30s I would bet on Grienke. It all depends on how much his team will eat or take back in bad contracts. If they really want to move him they will. I wouldn't rule out Dodgers, I can see a deal being made there. Yeah, I'm not convinced he won't bounce back, just that I don't see teams lining up to pay nearly $30M a year for a guy who had the year he did, at his age. The Dodgers would actually probably be a good match, given his history there and their financials (and needs). But they didn't pay him in the first place, so it'd be interesting to see what they'd give up (and need to get back, $-wise) to take on a contract-player combo they didn't like a year ago, when he was awesome.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2016 22:36:32 GMT -5
All MLB relievers, minimum 30 IP, pPLI > .75 (i.e., excluding low-leverage guys), SIERA and adjusted WPA/G weighted equally. The score is the sum of the two scores in standard deviations.
5.94 Andrew Miller 5.64 Zach Britton 4.03 Aroldis Chapman 3.77 Kenley Jansen 3.50 Edwin Diaz 2.76 Koji Uehara 2.74 Shawn Kelly 2.71 Seung-Hwan Oh 2.70 Will Harris 2.67 Michael Lorenzen
Robbie Ross ranked 17th.
The 4 guys excluded because of leverage include two LHR who were just converted from starting:
5.14 Chris Devenski 4.18 Dan Otero 3.92 Chris Rusin, Rockies 3.90 Tyler Lyons, Cardinals
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