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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 18, 2016 5:35:48 GMT -5
Anyways moving on from the Yankees and more on topic-
Rosters could be expanding to 26 in the regular season and 28 in September.
If the rosters expand to 26, I hope this puts the Sox back into thinking they should resign Koji. The Sox wouldn't have to DFA anyone to put him on the roster and could manage his innings better with the extra roster spot. In fact, I hope they rethink that even if the rosters don't expand.
Koji is electric and deserves to finish his career in Boston, especially since he came off the good year he had. I bet he would take a cheaper one year deal to even resign here too. I know DD isn't attached to him but the rest of Boston is.
Plus I'm salivating at a chance to see a Kimbrel/Koji/Holland/Carson Smith and maybe even a Kopech bullpen by the end of the year. No one would want to face that. The Sox could shorten games by 4 or 5 innings with that kind of bullpen to close out games by the end of the season.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 18, 2016 15:04:27 GMT -5
It would certainly complicate things since he'd command a long term commitment. With Pablo and his salary almost impossible to move, the presence of Shaw on the roster, and Moncada being groomed to assume the position sometime in 2017, I don't see a fit.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2016 16:05:18 GMT -5
Let's keep this thread on-topic. If you want to discuss the Yankees, please feel free to start a new thread on the subject.
As an aside, this is the third or fourth time that pedrofanforever45 and umassgrad2005 have gotten stuck on one of these long-winded, repetitive, tangential back-and-forth arguments that monopolize a thread. If you want to have that sort of argument, that's what the throwdown subforum is for, but let's try to keep it off the major threads in the main forums. Thanks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 18, 2016 17:12:48 GMT -5
Any chance you can create a Yankee thread and move the posts there? That would be awesome. Sorry for the rambling, nothing gets me going like the Yankees.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2016 18:53:22 GMT -5
I've moved all the Yankees discussion to its own thread.
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Post by soxjim on Nov 18, 2016 19:07:18 GMT -5
Most people already know that they have 1-2 years to go until they are real contenders again. The Yankees will probably finish 3rd or 4th in the division, even with upgrades like a Beltran, Chapman, and maybe even Rich Hill. Come the super free agent class of 2018, it's a completely different ballgame however. Machado, Harper, and maybe Otani could form a new all-star core in their minds and they can afford each and every one of these guys with the contracts they're shedding right now. Nevermind the developing part, with their top 5 farm system in baseball right now who probably will produce 2-4 more serious players by that time. The Yankees will be a serious threat by 2019, hopefully the Sox can either win in the next two years while the Yankees are essentially rebuilding or the Sox will match the Yankees in 2019 in terms of talent. It'll take a lot to match them, the Sox will be off to a good start if the extend Mookie and possibly Xander but they will need more by that time. They would need the likes of Moncada, Kopech, Swihart, Eduardo Rodriguez, Benintendi, Groome, and Devers to develop into serious players and make smart trades and free agent signings along the way. It will be tough but it can be done if the Sox are smart about things. The Yankees don't need to be smart, they'll buy all the best players. This is the aggravating part. Wow you think so highly of Yankees and have such a negative view of Red Sox. Last time I checked we had the second best collection of young talent in majors, trailing only the Cubs by a small margin and a great farm system. So 2-4 of the Yankee prospects in minors that have shown nothing in majors will step forward, but we need our young players to? Come on Swihart, Benintendi, and ERod have already had success in majors. The Yankees can't match our top prospects, they might have a deeper system now, but they can't match Moncada, Kopech, Devers and Groome(Benintendi is still considered a rookie also). Where's the Yankees pitching coming from? They are going to need 2-3 starters, if not more if Tanka breaks down. Been rumors for years that he will in time need major surgery, reminds me of Pedro playing through it, but it will give out sooner or later. Harper is no lock to leave his team, his owner spends money and it would shock me if they let him leave. Machado might leave, but again if Baltimore is going to spend big he's the guy. You have no clue who they will be able to sign! You sound like a Yankee fan dreaming of the best outcome possible!! Sit back and enjoy the Red Sox! They are the team set up to dominate the AL for the next 10 years, not the Yankees. I agree with everything you've said here in terms of pedro looking at only the side of Lord Vader and The Evil Empire. He needs to step away from the dark side of the force. The Bosox are a beast for the foreseeable future. The Yanks have to go head-to-head with the Dodgers and nearly every team doesn't mind making one huge move to outbid the major teams. Even if the Sox do nothing they can still be extremely tough come playoff time when a lot matters on how hot you are.
I just hope DD sticks to his word and doesn't go after multi-year player like EE. I don't mean to egg on Pedro here- but it's that I just read an article - one of the writers is suggesting Sox NEED to get EE or Trumbo.
Please stay away stay away stay away! I really really dislike Trumbo. EE just too much money too many years that isn't needed instead of getting a cheaper player less years. Another article said the Yanks should go hard after EE. I hope with the money they do it rather than us. I'm very excited that every year we could have a potential high impact player over the next 4. For the time being, this team/organization needs to focus on being patient and go hard to sign their young players. If we lose some bidding wars to the Yanks and Dodgers --- so be it. Jack up their price.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2016 0:39:49 GMT -5
Let's keep this thread on-topic. If you want to discuss the Yankees, please feel free to start a new thread on the subject. As an aside, this is the third or fourth time that pedrofanforever45 and umassgrad2005 have gotten stuck on one of these long-winded, repetitive, tangential back-and-forth arguments that monopolize a thread. If you want to have that sort of argument, that's what the throwdown subforum is for, but let's try to keep it off the major threads in the main forums. Thanks. Sorry, I won't engage anymore with deep tangents. Even if I disagree completely.
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jdb
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Post by jdb on Nov 19, 2016 13:01:31 GMT -5
I brought up Trevor Plouffe as a RH platoon at 3B who could back up 1B and he was released by the Twins. I would like him on a one year make good deal like Pittsburg and Freese last year but he may get starter money. His been pretty good vs LHP over his career.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 19, 2016 13:28:06 GMT -5
Tim Collins might be some good lhp relief insurance. He won't be ready to start the season, but could replace Abad or Scott when he is ready. He used to be pretty great with the Royals. 2 straight TJS hopefully didn't finish him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2016 15:07:46 GMT -5
I brought up Trevor Plouffe as a RH platoon at 3B who could back up 1B and he was released by the Twins. I would like him on a one year make good deal like Pittsburg and Freese last year but he may get starter money. His been pretty good vs LHP over his career. Plouffe would be a awesome name to acquire. He's versatile too.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2016 15:08:33 GMT -5
Tim Collins might be some good lhp relief insurance. He won't be ready to start the season, but could replace Abad or Scott when he is ready. He used to be pretty great with the Royals. 2 straight TJS hopefully didn't finish him. Worcester Massachusetts born Tim Collins. I'm sure he would love to come back home.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2016 21:06:11 GMT -5
Brett Cecil signed with the Cardinals for 4/$30.5m. One of the better relievers on the market, and one I was interested in.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2016 21:43:06 GMT -5
Brett Cecil signed with the Cardinals for 4/$30.5m. One of the better relievers on the market, and one I was interested in. The reliever market just keeps getting over inflated. Now setup men are being close to being paid what closers were being paid 5 years ago.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 19, 2016 23:32:53 GMT -5
All the more reason the Yankees' hoarding of 100-mph arms is smart. The Sox need to take a page from that book and start producing their own relievers. There's such inflation in the market (and such historical instability in reliever performance) that it's just not a viable approach to be signing/trading for established relievers. A smart GM/POBO will collect big arms, start them as long as possible to get them reps on their secondaries, and move them to the bullpen (a la Betances) if they can't hack it as starters due to either command or third pitch issues. If NY can get two quality arms (one of whom was a top-10 prospect in a loaded Astros system) for a way-overpaid, aging catcher, the Sox should be able to get at least one for Buchholz. If they sign Rich Hill, they could do a Buchholz trade and simultaneously improve the rotation, without adding more than a couple million in salary. Get Swihart catching in AAA again, and see what shakes out with Leon and Vazquez. Sign Plouffe and consider dangling Shaw for a couple of low-A/hi-A arms. Maybe they don't "need" a big bat, but a bounce-back candidate like Holliday on a 1-and-1 deal with a big vesting option could bring back a lot in trade. I think Cashman was very smart about his FA/trade approach with Chapman/Miller/Beltran. The Sox need to build their mid-tier farm up the same way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 19, 2016 23:45:15 GMT -5
All the more reason the Yankees' hoarding of 100-mph arms is smart. The Sox need to take a page from that book and start producing their own relievers. There's such inflation in the market (and such historical instability in reliever performance) that it's just not a viable approach to be signing/trading for established relievers. A smart GM/POBO will collect big arms, start them as long as possible to get them reps on their secondaries, and move them to the bullpen (a la Betances) if they can't hack it as starters due to either command or third pitch issues. If NY can get two quality arms (one of whom was a top-10 prospect in a loaded Astros system) for a way-overpaid, aging catcher, the Sox should be able to get at least one for Buchholz. If they sign Rich Hill, they could do a Buchholz trade and simultaneously improve the rotation, without adding more than a couple million in salary. Get Swihart catching in AAA again, and see what shakes out with Leon and Vazquez. Sign Plouffe and consider dangling Shaw for a couple of low-A/hi-A arms. Maybe they don't "need" a big bat, but a bounce-back candidate like Holliday on a 1-and-1 deal with a big vesting option could bring back a lot in trade. I think Cashman was very smart about his FA/trade approach with Chapman/Miller/Beltran. The Sox need to build their mid-tier farm up the same way. Unfortunately the two other teams that are in on Rich Hill is the Yankees and Dodgers. Maybe he'd take a little less to play here in his home state, but he's still getting paid for 3 years.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 20, 2016 0:11:05 GMT -5
All the more reason the Yankees' hoarding of 100-mph arms is smart. The Sox need to take a page from that book and start producing their own relievers. There's such inflation in the market (and such historical instability in reliever performance) that it's just not a viable approach to be signing/trading for established relievers. A smart GM/POBO will collect big arms, start them as long as possible to get them reps on their secondaries, and move them to the bullpen (a la Betances) if they can't hack it as starters due to either command or third pitch issues. If NY can get two quality arms (one of whom was a top-10 prospect in a loaded Astros system) for a way-overpaid, aging catcher, the Sox should be able to get at least one for Buchholz. If they sign Rich Hill, they could do a Buchholz trade and simultaneously improve the rotation, without adding more than a couple million in salary. Get Swihart catching in AAA again, and see what shakes out with Leon and Vazquez. Sign Plouffe and consider dangling Shaw for a couple of low-A/hi-A arms. Maybe they don't "need" a big bat, but a bounce-back candidate like Holliday on a 1-and-1 deal with a big vesting option could bring back a lot in trade. I think Cashman was very smart about his FA/trade approach with Chapman/Miller/Beltran. The Sox need to build their mid-tier farm up the same way. Unfortunately the two other teams that are in on Rich Hill is the Yankees and Dodgers. Maybe he'd take a little less to play here in his home state, but he's still getting paid for 3 years. Sure, probably something in the 3/45 range. But he's from the area and the Sox helped salvage his career. They're also contenders. I have to think that puts NY at a disadvantage, given that they're probably two years away, at least. And, if after this year they have an internal option (Kopech), his contract would be eminently tradable. Two years of a fifth starter (if that's what he ends up being next year) at 2/30 isn't a prohibitive cost. He has elite spin on both FB and CB, which bodes well for his stuff even if his velo falls. And with Wright/Johnson/Owens/Kopech/Haley/Elías, the Sox have 6-10 depth that makes his injury risk palatable. The Sox 'pen, as constituted, is Kimbrel/Kelly/Ross/Barnes/Hembree/Abad/Buchholz; they'll need to add probably one arm (Wright to bullpen if Hill is signed) for a 12-man staff. They could re-sign Koji, and add one guy as an interim until Smith returns. They also have Martin in AAA, and potentially Ysla or Jerez. Johnson might be a 'pen option, too. Spending $7M a year on a 7th inning guy for 4 years is a risky proposition...probably of similar risk to Hill (look at Cecil's injury issues), but with less upside.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 20, 2016 0:49:29 GMT -5
Unfortunately the two other teams that are in on Rich Hill is the Yankees and Dodgers. Maybe he'd take a little less to play here in his home state, but he's still getting paid for 3 years. Sure, probably something in the 3/45 range. But he's from the area and the Sox helped salvage his career. They're also contenders. I have to think that puts NY at a disadvantage, given that they're probably two years away, at least. And, if after this year they have an internal option (Kopech), his contract would be eminently tradable. Two years of a fifth starter (if that's what he ends up being next year) at 2/30 isn't a prohibitive cost. He has elite spin on both FB and CB, which bodes well for his stuff even if his velo falls. And with Wright/Johnson/Owens/Kopech/Haley/Elías, the Sox have 6-10 depth that makes his injury risk palatable. The Sox 'pen, as constituted, is Kimbrel/Kelly/Ross/Barnes/Hembree/Abad/Buchholz; they'll need to add probably one arm (Wright to bullpen if Hill is signed) for a 12-man staff. They could re-sign Koji, and add one guy as an interim until Smith returns. They also have Martin in AAA, and potentially Ysla or Jerez. Johnson might be a 'pen option, too. Spending $7M a year on a 7th inning guy for 4 years is a risky proposition...probably of similar risk to Hill (look at Cecil's injury issues), but with less upside. I'm not sure if the Sox are even considering starting pitching options at this point. I don't even see the Sox making a offer on Hill to be honest. I would love for the Sox to change their minds on Koji though. Especially if there's a added spot on the roster (26) like there's been rumored that both sides are talking about in the labor agreement.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 20, 2016 0:52:31 GMT -5
All the more reason the Yankees' hoarding of 100-mph arms is smart. The Sox need to take a page from that book and start producing their own relievers. There's such inflation in the market (and such historical instability in reliever performance) that it's just not a viable approach to be signing/trading for established relievers. A smart GM/POBO will collect big arms, start them as long as possible to get them reps on their secondaries, and move them to the bullpen (a la Betances) if they can't hack it as starters due to either command or third pitch issues. If NY can get two quality arms (one of whom was a top-10 prospect in a loaded Astros system) for a way-overpaid, aging catcher, the Sox should be able to get at least one for Buchholz. If they sign Rich Hill, they could do a Buchholz trade and simultaneously improve the rotation, without adding more than a couple million in salary. Get Swihart catching in AAA again, and see what shakes out with Leon and Vazquez. Sign Plouffe and consider dangling Shaw for a couple of low-A/hi-A arms. Maybe they don't "need" a big bat, but a bounce-back candidate like Holliday on a 1-and-1 deal with a big vesting option could bring back a lot in trade. I think Cashman was very smart about his FA/trade approach with Chapman/Miller/Beltran. The Sox need to build their mid-tier farm up the same way. While I'd be really cool with the Sox signing Hill and dealing Buchholz, I doubt that this will happen. Do agree with your point on developing more relievers. I would think it would be easier to develop a good reliever than a top of the rotation starter. The Sox haven't done well in either area for quite awhile, but they have been excellent and developing positional talent. I do think at some point the overvaluation of relievers will reach a saturation point. There is enough volatility that it'll become a lot more efficient to grab a guy out of the minors than to pay a decent reliever (the Cecils of the world) big bucks. But for now closers or key relievers like Miller are worth a premium in the trade market and will get their big paydays in free agency. The Yankees certainly exploited this last season.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 20, 2016 1:35:16 GMT -5
Yeah, to be clear, I doubt the Sox sign Hill. I just think it's the most sensible pitching staff move for them. Even if they didn't trade Buchholz, I think he could be at least equivalent to a 7th-inning arm. While $13.5M is too much to spend on a reliever, he's outstanding starting depth, and on a one-year deal he's only costing them a few million more than the FA alternative. Plus, he could be dealt if Smith returned in form. And it's only one year: no prospects lost, no draft picks lost, and an improved rotation. I honestly don't think they're going to get somebody via trade/FA who's demonstrably better out of the bullpen than Clay could/would be. I mean, I like the idea of signing Greg Holland, but at 2/$18 or 1/$10M and that risk...why not get a quality starter and keep the starter you have as a bullpen arm? If he pitches well, he helps the team and brings more in trade. If he stinks, they can probably still get someone to bite on the idea of starting him (Pit and Searage?). I just really, really see this reliever market as a giant sinkhole. I mean, even if Hill weren't able to start in a year or two, he'd be a fantastic 'pen arm. Look at O'Day's and Cecil's deals...it's crazy. I'd rather see them spend slightly more over three years rather than four, but get a TOR-caliber (when healthy) starter. Hell, Hill could probably close. And we know he works well with Bannister.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 20, 2016 13:06:41 GMT -5
I totally agree with trading Clay, but I take the best offer we can get. I would also eat half his salary if it meant getting a better package.
I really don't get the sign Hill, so we can move Wright to pen. Just move Wright into rotation. Hill is the definition of injury plagued player. Sure Holland is risky, but so is Hill. Would much rather take a one year gamble on Holland, with an option year, than 3 years with Hill. Who knows maybe Hill is Awesome for the next 3 years, but he would be doing something I've never seen before. Become a TOR starter at age 36, then stay one for his age 37, 38 and 39 seasons.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2016 13:52:10 GMT -5
Here's a breakdown of potential LHR acquisitions. I've been wanting to trade for a near-elite guy with 2 years control left (maybe 3), but any such guy is pitching for a contender and isn't going anywhere. Sean Doolittle would qualify if you exclude BABIP, HR/FB, and clutch, but he had an awful year in terms of actual results.
The numbers are SIERA /SIERA converted into SD above average (followed by SIERA rank among 49 LHR last year, minimum 30 IP, in parentheses), and leverage-adjusted Win Probability Added/60 G (whose SD is almost exactly 1, so it's already directly comparable to the after-the-slash SIERA number) (then WPA rank).
What I swear I'm not going to do is look into each of the 14 good karma / bad karma / recently converted (and hence with little track record and a SSS) / under-the-radar guys and try to figure out if they're actually good. Although, damn, that's tempting.
Quality FAs Boone Logan, 3.17 / 0.62) (14th), 0.32 (25th). Jerry Blevins, 3.05 / 0.79 (10), 0.18 (28).
Bad Karma FA (good SIERA, bad results) Bret Cecil, 2.71 / 1.25 (4), -1.54 (47). Signed with Cardinals.
Good Karma FA (bad SIERA, good results) Travis Wood, 4.46 / -1.15 (45), 0.98 (11)
Under-the-Radar FA (pitched in low leverage) J.P. Howell, 3.36 / 0.36 (18), 0.91 (13)
Converted Starter (as of this year), Trade Candidates Brad Hand, Padres (3 yrs control), 3.09 / 0.73 (12), 1.02 (10) Taylor Rogers, Twins (6), 2.12 / .069 (13), 0.86 (15)
Under-the-Radar Converted Starter, Trade Candidates Chris Rusin, Rockies (4), 2.83 / 1.09 (6), 2.84 (3). Best LHR after Miller, Britton, and Chapman, with a .70 pLI. Converted after 7 subpar starts. pLI 1.03 starting 8/29, so they appear to have noticed at least a little. Tyler Lyons, Cardinals (4), 3.46 / 0.22 (22), 3.68 (1). Actually more valuable than Britton, adjusted for his 0.63 pLI. Missed the last two months with a knee "stress reaction" (after off-season surgery).
Under-the-Radar Trade Candidate Buddy Boshers, Twins (5), 3.08 / 0.75 (11), 0.86 (14). But only entrusted with 0.62 pLI. ERA blown up by a couple of bad outings in garbage time.
Bad Karma Trade Candidates Sean Doolittle, A's (2), 2.95 / 0.92 (8), -0.45 (37) Xavier Cedeno, Rays (3), 3.31 / 0.43 (17), -0.11 (33) Justin Wilson, Tigers (2), 3.02 / 0.83 (9), -0.53 (38) Will Smith, Giants (3), 3.43 / 0.26 (19), -0.56 (39). Much better after his trade, but Bochy didn't trust him in the post-season.
Good Karma Trade Candidates Antonio Bastardo, Pirates (1), 3.96 / -0.46 (35), 0.86 (16) Tony Watson, Pirates (1), 3.81 / -0.26 (31), 0.36 (24) Dan Jennings, White Sox (3), 4.28 / -0.90 (41), -.76 (18)
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Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2016 18:41:03 GMT -5
Don't know how many saw/heard this but some really interesting findings on MLB umps, including that they miss calls on close outside pitches 33+% of the time, reviewable plays neatly 50% (!) of the time, and are subject to sequential contrast effect and gamblers' fallacy at statistically significant rates: freakonomics.com/podcast/make-bad-decision/#disqus_threadRoboUmps now, please.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2016 18:43:05 GMT -5
I totally agree with trading Clay, but I take the best offer we can get. I would also eat half his salary if it meant getting a better package. I really don't get the sign Hill, so we can move Wright to pen. Just move Wright into rotation. Hill is the definition of injury plagued player. Sure Holland is risky, but so is Hill. Would much rather take a one year gamble on Holland, with an option year, than 3 years with Hill. Who knows maybe Hill is Awesome for the next 3 years, but he would be doing something I've never seen before. Become a TOR starter at age 36, then stay one for his age 37, 38 and 39 seasons. Not so sure. If Rodriguez is really dumb enough to risk his career by pitching in the Word Baseball Cluster then we'll need another starter early and late.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 21, 2016 1:27:58 GMT -5
I totally agree with trading Clay, but I take the best offer we can get. I would also eat half his salary if it meant getting a better package. I really don't get the sign Hill, so we can move Wright to pen. Just move Wright into rotation. Hill is the definition of injury plagued player. Sure Holland is risky, but so is Hill. Would much rather take a one year gamble on Holland, with an option year, than 3 years with Hill. Who knows maybe Hill is Awesome for the next 3 years, but he would be doing something I've never seen before. Become a TOR starter at age 36, then stay one for his age 37, 38 and 39 seasons. Not so sure. If Rodriguez is really dumb enough to risk his career by pitching in the Word Baseball Cluster then we'll need another starter early and late. You can't fault any player for wanting to play for his Country. Having pride for ones country isn't dumb. Sure it has added risk, but so does playing in Winter Ball and players do that. People used to say the same thing about playing in Olympic Basketball, because a bunch of players had down years the following year. For me I'd take the risk, as winning a medal for ones Country is a life changing event.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 21, 2016 1:32:00 GMT -5
Anyways moving on from the Yankees and more on topic- Rosters could be expanding to 26 in the regular season and 28 in September. If the rosters expand to 26, I hope this puts the Sox back into thinking they should resign Koji. The Sox wouldn't have to DFA anyone to put him on the roster and could manage his innings better with the extra roster spot. In fact, I hope they rethink that even if the rosters don't expand. Koji is electric and deserves to finish his career in Boston, especially since he came off the good year he had. I bet he would take a cheaper one year deal to even resign here too. I know DD isn't attached to him but the rest of Boston is. Plus I'm salivating at a chance to see a Kimbrel/Koji/Holland/Carson Smith and maybe even a Kopech bullpen by the end of the year. No one would want to face that. The Sox could shorten games by 4 or 5 innings with that kind of bullpen to close out games by the end of the season. Rosters are almost certainly being expanded to 26. Bring back Koji. Make the Red Sox bullpen great again. Hahaha (Trump reference in order to campaign for Koji). Seriously it'd be perfect because- -The Sox don't have to dfa anyone in the bullpen to make room for Koji with the extra roster spot. -The Sox can manage his innings a lot better (even with Farrell here) -He would probably only require a one year commitment because of age.
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