SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 21, 2016 13:52:28 GMT -5
Not so sure. If Rodriguez is really dumb enough to risk his career by pitching in the Word Baseball Cluster then we'll need another starter early and late. You can't fault any player for wanting to play for his Country. Having pride for ones country isn't dumb. Sure it has added risk, but so does playing in Winter Ball and players do that. People used to say the same thing about playing in Olympic Basketball, because a bunch of players had down years the following year. For me I'd take the risk, as winning a medal for ones Country is a life changing event. I would encourage it if it wasn't such a bogus tournament. But he's also an employee whose career depends on the health of his arm (and knee), and he owes responsibility to the company giving him a living, especially in such a short-lived career.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Nov 21, 2016 20:32:32 GMT -5
Here's a breakdown of potential LHR acquisitions. I've been wanting to trade for a near-elite guy with 2 years control left (maybe 3), but any such guy is pitching for a contender and isn't going anywhere. Sean Doolittle would qualify if you exclude BABIP, HR/FB, and clutch, but he had an awful year in terms of actual results. The numbers are SIERA /SIERA converted into SD above average (followed by SIERA rank among 49 LHR last year, minimum 30 IP, in parentheses), and leverage-adjusted Win Probability Added/60 G (whose SD is almost exactly 1, so it's already directly comparable to the after-the-slash SIERA number) (then WPA rank). What I swear I'm not going to do is look into each of the 14 good karma / bad karma / recently converted (and hence with little track record and a SSS) / under-the-radar guys and try to figure out if they're actually good. Although, damn, that's tempting. Quality FAsBoone Logan, 3.17 / 0.62) (14th), 0.32 (25th). Jerry Blevins, 3.05 / 0.79 (10), 0.18 (28). Bad Karma FA (good SIERA, bad results) Bret Cecil, 2.71 / 1.25 (4), -1.54 (47). Signed with Cardinals. Good Karma FA (bad SIERA, good results) Travis Wood, 4.46 / -1.15 (45), 0.98 (11) Under-the-Radar FA (pitched in low leverage) J.P. Howell, 3.36 / 0.36 (18), 0.91 (13) Converted Starter (as of this year), Trade CandidatesBrad Hand, Padres (3 yrs control), 3.09 / 0.73 (12), 1.02 (10) Taylor Rogers, Twins (6), 2.12 / .069 (13), 0.86 (15) Under-the-Radar Converted Starter, Trade Candidates
Chris Rusin, Rockies (4), 2.83 / 1.09 (6), 2.84 (3). Best LHR after Miller, Britton, and Chapman, with a .70 pLI. Converted after 7 subpar starts. pLI 1.03 starting 8/29, so they appear to have noticed at least a little. Tyler Lyons, Cardinals (4), 3.46 / 0.22 (22), 3.68 (1). Actually more valuable than Britton, adjusted for his 0.63 pLI. Missed the last two months with a knee "stress reaction" (after off-season surgery). Under-the-Radar Trade CandidateBuddy Boshers, Twins (5), 3.08 / 0.75 (11), 0.86 (14). But only entrusted with 0.62 pLI. ERA blown up by a couple of bad outings in garbage time. Bad Karma Trade CandidatesSean Doolittle, A's (2), 2.95 / 0.92 (8), -0.45 (37) Xavier Cedeno, Rays (3), 3.31 / 0.43 (17), -0.11 (33) Justin Wilson, Tigers (2), 3.02 / 0.83 (9), -0.53 (38) Will Smith, Giants (3), 3.43 / 0.26 (19), -0.56 (39). Much better after his trade, but Bochy didn't trust him in the post-season. Good Karma Trade Candidates
Antonio Bastardo, Pirates (1), 3.96 / -0.46 (35), 0.86 (16) Tony Watson, Pirates (1), 3.81 / -0.26 (31), 0.36 (24) Dan Jennings, White Sox (3), 4.28 / -0.90 (41), -.76 (18) Excellent analysis. But how many of these guys rate a better option than abad? Logan and boshers?
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2016 0:55:16 GMT -5
Excellent analysis. But how many of these guys rate a better option than abad? Logan and boshers? My snappy answer is "everybody," but I'm guessing that if I looked at them in detail, it would actually be ... almost everybody. Abad was 4.36 / -1.01 (44), -1.05 (43). He ranked 47th out of 49 in the combination. And he has a career track record of being bad in high-leverage (and only effective versus LHB in average leverage). One note to add about Tyler Lyons: he was the Cardinals' Robby Ross, except even better in the clutch and even more underused by his manager.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 22, 2016 10:00:24 GMT -5
You can't fault any player for wanting to play for his Country. Having pride for ones country isn't dumb. Sure it has added risk, but so does playing in Winter Ball and players do that. People used to say the same thing about playing in Olympic Basketball, because a bunch of players had down years the following year. For me I'd take the risk, as winning a medal for ones Country is a life changing event. I would encourage it if it wasn't such a bogus tournament. But he's also an employee whose career depends on the health of his arm (and knee), and he owes responsibility to the company giving him a living, especially in such a short-lived career. You might feel it's bogus, but for some Countries winning it would be a great honor and the player could receive celebrity status for his contributions. As long as he's 100% healthy I have no problem with him pitching in it. He had very limited innings last year. It's just like playing winter ball to get his innings up. Now if Price or Porcello wanted to play after all the innings they threw last year I would have a problem with it.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2016 10:02:32 GMT -5
I would encourage it if it wasn't such a bogus tournament. But he's also an employee whose career depends on the health of his arm (and knee), and he owes responsibility to the company giving him a living, especially in such a short-lived career. You might feel it's bogus, but for some Countries winning it would be a great honor and the player could receive celebrity status for his contributions. [citation please]
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,775
|
Post by gerry on Nov 22, 2016 11:39:26 GMT -5
Well, Sir Xander Bogaerts and teammates were knighted by the Queen of the Netherlands for bringing the WBC trophy to Holland. He is a legend in Aruba.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Nov 22, 2016 13:14:33 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts already has the second-highest bWAR of all Aruban baseball players. Only 2.4 behing Sidney Ponson!
|
|
|
Post by klostrophobic on Nov 22, 2016 15:09:45 GMT -5
Not so sure. If Rodriguez is really dumb enough to risk his career by pitching in the Word Baseball Cluster then we'll need another starter early and late. You can't fault any player for wanting to play for his Country. Having pride for ones country isn't dumb. Sure it has added risk, but so does playing in Winter Ball and players do that. People used to say the same thing about playing in Olympic Basketball, because a bunch of players had down years the following year. For me I'd take the risk, as winning a medal for ones Country is a life changing event. I like the argument except as it applies to pitchers. No other athlete in sports has so much potential for a career-ending result on every play (save for NFL players). Kevin Durant playing in the olympics and logging 29 minutes a game (over 8 games) in blowouts is not akin to Eduardo Rodriguez altering his training regimen to be ready to pitch competitive baseball a month earlier than his contract with the Red Sox stipulates. He can do whatever he wants I suppose, but I don't see the reward as being very high relative to the assumed risk.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 22, 2016 15:10:17 GMT -5
Well, Sir Xander Bogaerts and teammates were knighted by the Queen of the Netherlands for bringing the WBC trophy to Holland. He is a legend in Aruba. Empirical proof it's bogus. Tell me Netherlands could win a legit professional baseball tourney.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 22, 2016 15:24:13 GMT -5
Well, Sir Xander Bogaerts and teammates were knighted by the Queen of the Netherlands for bringing the WBC trophy to Holland. He is a legend in Aruba. Empirical proof it's bogus. Tell me Netherlands could win a legit professional baseball tourney. If the Netherlands had ever won the World Baseball Classic, I'd agree with you. However, Bogaerts was knighted after the Netherlands won the Baseball World Cup in 2011, actually. The WBC champs have been Japan twice and the DR once.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 22, 2016 16:03:52 GMT -5
Empirical proof it's bogus. Tell me Netherlands could win a legit professional baseball tourney. If the Netherlands had ever won the World Baseball Classic, I'd agree with you. However, Bogaerts was knighted after the Netherlands won the Baseball World Cup in 2011, actually. The WBC champs have been Japan twice and the DR once. Still spurious, but, hey, that's my opinion. If Rodriguez gets hurt, especially due to over-use or even a fluke injury. It's a needless risk, especially when it could cost him years and dollars off his career. The guy is already coming off an injury, I'd want my staff monitoring him and ramping him up appropriately, not some manager with delusions of grandeur. They do this in the NCAA all the time and ruin guys for life.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Nov 22, 2016 16:28:35 GMT -5
If the WBC were held in the winter, I wouldn't have an issue. But the timing, especially for a pitcher, is risky. It really is more extension of 2017 and not 2016.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 22, 2016 19:52:07 GMT -5
If the WBC were held in the winter, I wouldn't have an issue. But the timing, especially for a pitcher, is risky. It really is more extension of 2017 and not 2016. I would actually split the WBC into two parts: an early qualifying round of some sort that could happen towards the end of spring training, and a championship round that happens in place of the All Star Game. Everyone agrees that Spring Training is too damn long anyway, so I doubt anyone would have a problem hollowing part of it out to play WBC games. Pitchers still might not be totally stretched out at that point but it's better than having them just move their whole season up a month. At the same time, you start the season a little early, throw in a few double headers, maybe even chop a few games out of the schedule in those years, and clear a full week or so mid-season to play the championship games. If you do it this way, pitchers don't need to change much, if anything, about their seasons (I imagine teams letting pitchers participate on the condition that they stay on their normal pitches/innings progressions), plus it gives baseball a huge marquee event (as opposed to an increasingly irrelevant ASG) right in the middle of the summer when nothing else is going on and when the players are in mid-season form. I know that would be more disruptive to the flow of the season, but honestly, if you're going to bother having this thing at all, do it right. Asking pitchers to start the season a month early just so that we can have some baseball games at a time of the year when most people (at least in America) could not give less of a crap about watching baseball just isn't worth it.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 23, 2016 9:51:47 GMT -5
You might feel it's bogus, but for some Countries winning it would be a great honor and the player could receive celebrity status for his contributions. [citation please]
|
|
|
Post by ryan24 on Nov 23, 2016 11:10:46 GMT -5
What about the possibility of Victor Martinez as the dh? 2 yrs on a contract at about the same as papi was making. Supposely he is available. Wonder what the price would be? Maybe an owens/Johnson and hembree swap with the tigers giving back a class A type pitcher.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 23, 2016 12:44:06 GMT -5
What about the possibility of Victor Martinez as the dh? 2 yrs on a contract at about the same as papi was making. Supposely he is available. Wonder what the price would be? Maybe an owens/Johnson and hembree swap with the tigers giving back a class A type pitcher. I guess the thinking is why trade players for him when you could get similar to better production out of the likes of Beltran or Holliday for less money and no players. Maybe that's a backup plan if the player price is right, but I can't see that being your first option. Also, Owens/Johnson and Hembree isn't getting you Vic Martinez I don't think. That's literally getting something for nothing, and I don't get the sense the Tigers are THAT desperate to unload contracts.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 25, 2016 4:06:47 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 25, 2016 8:53:01 GMT -5
That's too bad. He was a great pitcher. Might have been on a HOF track had injuries not derailed his career way too soon. I could be wrong but I think his passing leaves only Bobby Doerr as the only player alive from the 1946 team? I remember reading that Boo Ferriss was actually in Busch Stadium, St. Louis on Oct 27, 2004 to witness the Red Sox winning the World Series and gaining some revenge for his team's defeat in 1946. Pesky was there, too of course.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Nov 25, 2016 15:26:46 GMT -5
I was looking at the stats generated by Jorge de la rosa and I think this guy could contribute to our team, if we are forced to move some starters as part of a trade for another ace.
Two year contract should get it done.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2016 17:07:57 GMT -5
I was looking at the stats generated by Jorge de la rosa and I think this guy could contribute to our team, if we are forced to move some starters as part of a trade for another ace. Two year contract should get it done. What exactly are you advocating here? Whose spot are you trying to "upgrade?" They have six starters now, five of who put up #3 or better numbers last year. What is your end game?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 25, 2016 20:39:04 GMT -5
I was looking at the stats generated by Jorge de la rosa and I think this guy could contribute to our team, if we are forced to move some starters as part of a trade for another ace. Two year contract should get it done. What exactly are you advocating here? Whose spot are you trying to "upgrade?" They have six starters now, five of who put up #3 or better numbers last year. What is your end game? I'm pretty sure he meant IF we traded for an ace (Sale I assume is who he is thinking) and IF we included a few starters in that package THEN there would be a slot for De La Rosa. ADD: Not that I'm advocating it, just seemed clear to me. If the White Sox did that, they would clearly want cost controlled which means Wright and Rodriguez and a minor leaguer like Swihart. Rotation would then be Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and De La Rosa or Buccholz. I'd have mixed feelings because I like ERod a lot and the cost control factor is slanted against doing that.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2016 21:14:49 GMT -5
What exactly are you advocating here? Whose spot are you trying to "upgrade?" They have six starters now, five of who put up #3 or better numbers last year. What is your end game? I'm pretty sure he meant IF we traded for an ace (Sale I assume is who he is thinking) and IF we included a few starters in that package then there would be a slot for De La Rosa. He mentioned Quintana elsewhere (with Robertson for Pomeranz-JBJ-Buchholz+). Obviously, I'd love to get either of the two. It's the cost (vs benefit) that's the issue to me. How big of a benefit is either? 5 or 6 WAR vs 2 to 4 for the pitcher they replace? Plus the cost of a FA backup? And if they traded JBJ, how much do they lose in value in the OF? If they had a serious question in the rotation, OK, it's a huge upgrade. But for 2 WAR? Is that really worth Moncada/Devers+? There are several people who want to keep upgrading the rotation, and I'm just waiting for a cogent argument as to why that's necessary, and justify why a small short-term gain (and debatable one at that, if JBJ is moved) is worth the long-term cost. And, why it's a better idea than, say, signing Rich Hill, trading Buchholz, and putting Wright in the bullpen. Or waiting for the trade deadline, seeing if Moncada is ready (and when Devers might be), and packaging Shaw/Buchholz for prospects to a contender. Or, having just won the division (playing 6 games below their expected W-L record), standing pat on the rotation and focusing on getting one or two quality bullpen arms? To me, the rotation is a low-priority concern. They won last year despite horrible 4-5 starter production through July. Rodriguez and Wright are healthy and Pomeranz (hopefully) is a 3 or better. Buchholz is the 6. Johnson and Owens the 7-8. That's plenty of depth, with quality from 1-5.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Nov 25, 2016 21:23:21 GMT -5
What exactly are you advocating here? Whose spot are you trying to "upgrade?" They have six starters now, five of who put up #3 or better numbers last year. What is your end game? I'm pretty sure he meant IF we traded for an ace (Sale I assume is who he is thinking) and IF we included a few starters in that package THEN there would be a slot for De La Rosa. ADD: Not that I'm advocating it, just seemed clear to me. If the White Sox did that, they would clearly want cost controlled which means Wright and Rodriguez and a minor leaguer like Swihart. Rotation would then be Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and De La Rosa or Buccholz. I'd have mixed feelings because I like ERod a lot and the cost control factor is slanted against doing that. You and I agree on Rodriguez. He's been a 3 fWAR guy in 230 innings, at an age when many guys are still in the minors. I think Rodriguez will be a solid 2, maybe even a 1a, in a year or two, at virtually no cost. And Wright was worth 2.8 fWAR in 156 innings last year, at virtually no cost. I'd rather see those two develop than trade them, and other valuable players, for a marginal benefit and increased salary costs, reduced flexibility, and a weaker farm system.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 25, 2016 22:23:38 GMT -5
What exactly are you advocating here? Whose spot are you trying to "upgrade?" They have six starters now, five of who put up #3 or better numbers last year. What is your end game? I'm pretty sure he meant IF we traded for an ace (Sale I assume is who he is thinking) and IF we included a few starters in that package THEN there would be a slot for De La Rosa. ADD: Not that I'm advocating it, just seemed clear to me. If the White Sox did that, they would clearly want cost controlled which means Wright and Rodriguez and a minor leaguer like Swihart. Rotation would then be Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and De La Rosa or Buccholz. I'd have mixed feelings because I like ERod a lot and the cost control factor is slanted against doing that. Lol what would the rebuilding White Sox want with a 32/33 year old knuckle ball pitcher in Stephen Wright? Even if he had a solid injury plagued season last year? I mean we got to get a little realistic if you want Sale. Start at JBJ and Eduardo Rodriguez and probably Swihart or Vasquez too and probably add more. These trade proposals aren't realistic. Edit- I'm not suggesting this is even a good move. I just realize that this kind of trade is going to hurt and your scouting director will probably want to quit after you make a trade of this magnitude. Think Shelby Miller deal, only 3 times worse at least.
|
|
|
Post by slam761 on Nov 25, 2016 23:00:50 GMT -5
I was looking at the stats generated by Jorge de la rosa and I think this guy could contribute to our team, if we are forced to move some starters as part of a trade for another ace. Two year contract should get it done. ...why the hell would we ever want someone as terrible as Jorge De La Rosa? I honestly have no idea how you could look at his stats and actually see anything remotely positive. And a two year deal? He should be grateful to even get a minor league offer.
|
|
|