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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 25, 2016 23:14:00 GMT -5
I was looking at the stats generated by Jorge de la rosa and I think this guy could contribute to our team, if we are forced to move some starters as part of a trade for another ace. Two year contract should get it done. ...why the hell would we ever want someone as terrible as Jorge De La Rosa? I honestly have no idea how you could look at his stats and actually see anything remotely positive. And a two year deal? He should be grateful to even get a minor league offer. Hahaha I was thinking the same exact thing. Jorge has been in the league for a long time and has had a good career considering he's been in Colorado this whole time but at this point he might be burnt toast. Best of luck to him and the team that gives him that 2 year deal though.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 26, 2016 0:45:14 GMT -5
...why the hell would we ever want someone as terrible as Jorge De La Rosa? I honestly have no idea how you could look at his stats and actually see anything remotely positive. And a two year deal? He should be grateful to even get a minor league offer. Hahaha I was thinking the same exact thing. Jorge has been in the league for a long time and has had a good career considering he's been in Colorado this whole time but at this point he might be burnt toast. Best of luck to him and the team that gives him that 2 year deal though. What? Not into that mid-5 FIP and FB sitting 89-91? He's only 35...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 26, 2016 1:10:37 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure he meant IF we traded for an ace (Sale I assume is who he is thinking) and IF we included a few starters in that package THEN there would be a slot for De La Rosa. ADD: Not that I'm advocating it, just seemed clear to me. If the White Sox did that, they would clearly want cost controlled which means Wright and Rodriguez and a minor leaguer like Swihart. Rotation would then be Sale, Price, Porcello, Pomeranz and De La Rosa or Buccholz. I'd have mixed feelings because I like ERod a lot and the cost control factor is slanted against doing that. Lol what would the rebuilding White Sox want with a 32/33 year old knuckle ball pitcher in Stephen Wright? Even if he had a solid injury plagued season last year? I mean we got to get a little realistic if you want Sale. Start at JBJ and Eduardo Rodriguez and probably Swihart or Vasquez too and probably add more. These trade proposals aren't realistic. Edit- I'm not suggesting this is even a good move. I just realize that this kind of trade is going to hurt and your scouting director will probably want to quit after you make a trade of this magnitude. Think Shelby Miller deal, only 3 times worse at least. Again, not advocating it, was just clarifying what was said. I'm happy with the rotation as is unless somebody makes an offer we can't refuse.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 26, 2016 1:12:06 GMT -5
Hahaha I was thinking the same exact thing. Jorge has been in the league for a long time and has had a good career considering he's been in Colorado this whole time but at this point he might be burnt toast. Best of luck to him and the team that gives him that 2 year deal though. What? Not into that mid-5 FIP and FB sitting 89-91? He's only 35... Well now that you put it that way, not really. I just would rather look elsewhere.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 26, 2016 23:19:09 GMT -5
What? Not into that mid-5 FIP and FB sitting 89-91? He's only 35... Well now that you put it that way, not really. I just would rather look elsewhere. Yup. TBH, I like their internal options over those numbers. I'm still OK with standing pat if Buchholz is the swingman.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 27, 2016 22:02:48 GMT -5
For all the talk of trading JBJ for Sale/Quintana/whoever, I'd rather see the Sox send him and Henry Owens or Brian Johnson to St Louis for Carlos Martinez. Actually, I'd probably prefer that they not trade him at all, but if they were that's the guy to do it for. St Louis badly needs a CF, and JBJ fits their lineup and provides excellent defense. I doubt they'd much want to trade Martinez, but it's a fair trade value-wise.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2016 12:40:06 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Nov 28, 2016 16:43:26 GMT -5
I still fail to see why the Ham Fighters would post him until he's a year or two out from his NPB free agency. Still young and affordable, and a huge gate draw, which also means big merchandise sales. The only one this benefits until they are close to losing him is Otani, especially with the hard cap on the posting fee.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 28, 2016 19:07:17 GMT -5
I still fail to see why the Ham Fighters would post him until he's a year or two out from his NPB free agency. Still young and affordable, and a huge gate draw, which also means big merchandise sales. The only one this benefits until they are close to losing him is Otani, especially with the hard cap on the posting fee. Oh, yeah, to be sure I don't think he'll be posted until they've bled him dry as a revenue source. That's what, three years? They're getting $20M no matter what (and his only leverage is to make a stink about it, which would be cultural anathema). I just meant building a team now with an eye on financial flexibility in the next 2-3 years. Otani won't be the only big FA. The Sox still have their own youngsters to wrap up, and I'd hope they wouldn't crowd the roster with any more bloated contracts. But I find Otani really fascinating, if only to see an MLB two-way player.
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Post by slam761 on Nov 29, 2016 0:23:40 GMT -5
This isn't the most exciting idea, but someone asked Keith Law if a trade of Castillo for Tomas could work, and he said he thinks AZ would take it if the Sox added a good but not great prospect. Anyone else think we should consider this? Tomas mostly sucks, but if we have to be stuck with a bad contract either way, I think I'd rather take a chance on Tomas instead of letting Rusney continue to waste a spot on the AAA roster. He could give us a likely 30+ HR DH without having to spend any extra money on a free agent, and if he doesn't work out, we're not really any worse off than we were before. If nothing else, he could platoon with someone like Shaw as he's absolutely destroyed lefties in his first 2 seasons.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2016 0:52:59 GMT -5
This isn't the most exciting idea, but someone asked Keith Law if a trade of Castillo for Tomas could work, and he said he thinks AZ would take it if the Sox added a good but not great prospect. Anyone else think we should consider this? Tomas mostly sucks, but if we have to be stuck with a bad contract either way, I think I'd rather take a chance on Tomas instead of letting Rusney continue to waste a spot on the AAA roster. He could give us a likely 30+ HR DH without having to spend any extra money on a free agent, and if he doesn't work out, we're not really any worse off than we were before. If nothing else, he could platoon with someone like Shaw as he's absolutely destroyed lefties in his first 2 seasons. Not a terrible idea, depending on who the Sox had to include. AZ is an offensive environment, though, and his K-BB rate is pretty bad. The money is similar, and Tomas should be a DH. RH power, particularly if he could get his walk rate up/OBP up, might have some value in a later trade when Moncada/Devers were ready. The other guy I was thinking of (prepare to groan, and it's the longest of shots, but a cheapo $1-2M flier deal wouldn't hurt) is Ryan Howard. He still hits the ball very hard, but his K rate is terrible and he hits a ton of weak pull grounders. His BABIP last year was an absolutely atrocious .205, and while his pull tendencies are part of that (and his incredible lack of any footspeed), I think he's likely to regress back to at least .260-.280. I just wonder if, on a no-risk deal, maybe Chili (and a chat with Papi or ten) could get him to go the other way off the wall. As a LH big-power DH who would be essentially no risk, I think he's worth the shot. Doesn't hurt to add some depth at DH.
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 29, 2016 12:29:13 GMT -5
I hadn't thought of Howard being an option. Could probably get him on a cheap 1 year deal, and if he totally bombs we could just cut him. Then Again, he's been worth -2.2 war over the past 5 seasons, so I'm very skeptical he could provide any value at all.
Also, am I the only one who totally forgot that Castillo is a Red Sox?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 29, 2016 12:49:42 GMT -5
Ryan Howard has a .269 on-base percentage since the start of 2015. He is not an option.
Fun fact: Ryan Howard has a negative bWAR for the decade.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Nov 29, 2016 14:19:40 GMT -5
If the DBacks would trade Tomas for Castillo and a B or C prospect, sign me up.
Tomas had a huge second half last year, and although his HR/FB will drop (4th in the MLB this year), he made some significant changes to his approach. His pull% went from 31.6 to 41%. His hard contact% went from 31 to 41%. His FB% went from 23 to 31%, while his LD% dropped just 0.9% to 21%. At minimum, Tomas should be a LHP crusher (186 wRC+ against LHP in 2016).
If we had he and Valbuena for a DH platoon, I'd be fine with that.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 29, 2016 15:52:50 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Nov 29, 2016 16:28:41 GMT -5
FYI, the above tweet is from Jim Bowden, which adds some, uh, "context."
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Post by classylefthander on Nov 29, 2016 16:50:14 GMT -5
This isn't the most exciting idea, but someone asked Keith Law if a trade of Castillo for Tomas could work, and he said he thinks AZ would take it if the Sox added a good but not great prospect. Anyone else think we should consider this? Tomas mostly sucks, but if we have to be stuck with a bad contract either way, I think I'd rather take a chance on Tomas instead of letting Rusney continue to waste a spot on the AAA roster. He could give us a likely 30+ HR DH without having to spend any extra money on a free agent, and if he doesn't work out, we're not really any worse off than we were before. If nothing else, he could platoon with someone like Shaw as he's absolutely destroyed lefties in his first 2 seasons. I have been playing a game called Trade the Crappy Red Sox Contracts for Other Crappy Contracts. Trading Castillo and Craig is problematic because the Sox end up over the luxury tax since their deals do not count against the AAV payroll. But if the tax is around the cost of the current year's salary for one of the AAA salary wasters, it's a wash. For example, Sandoval and Craig for Pujols Now Pujols' deal exceeds Sandoval's by two years and $82mm dollars(140 v. 58) but you would get more from the deal upfront (Steamer has Pujols with one WAR over Panda for 17 but he is dinged about half a WAR for first base defense, and would benefit from hitting in Fenway.) So in 17, Pujols is due $26 MM, with an AAV of $31mm, while Sandoval has $17mm salary, with a $19mm AAV, and Craig is owed $11 mm. Subtract Panda, add Pujols it's about $200mm, which may be the new tax line. It's certainly a risky deal but if they think Pujols can average 2WAR per year as a DH over the next four years, then it's the $34mm in '21 they would need to be concerned with, along with the $60 mm owed to Price (if he doesn't opt out), Castillo and Pedroia. other deals: Sandoval for Kemp, Castillo and $10mm for Ethier, Sandoval and $15mm for Ethier
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 29, 2016 20:04:47 GMT -5
FYI, the above tweet is from Jim Bowden, which adds some, uh, "context." Yeah I listened to Bowden talk about that if the DiamondBacks ate money on a Greinke deal, they should get back both Kopech and Devers. Bowden is a great personality and he has a lot of enthusiasm for the game and has a lot of connections with GM's but his opinion on baseball is mostly awful.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2016 23:56:22 GMT -5
FYI, the above tweet is from Jim Bowden, which adds some, uh, "context." Yeah I listened to Bowden talk about that if the DiamondBacks ate money on a Greinke deal, they should get back both Kopech and Devers. Bowden is a great personality and he has a lot of enthusiasm for the game and has a lot of connections with GM's but his opinion on baseball is mostly awful. I don't know that I'd do that deal even if AZ swallowed the whole contract. OK, mild exaggeration. But I'm not remotely convinced that Greinke can outpitch anyone currently in the Sox rotation for the next two years, let alone the three after that. I expect both Kopech and Devers to be providing similar or even more excess value than a fully-subsidized Greinke by 2019. And they don't need a pitcher until then. Bowden almost never makes any sense. I mean, in a vacuum he might be closer to the truth, but as constituted that would be a wholly nonsensical deal for the Sox.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2016 1:20:37 GMT -5
Yeah I listened to Bowden talk about that if the DiamondBacks ate money on a Greinke deal, they should get back both Kopech and Devers. Bowden is a great personality and he has a lot of enthusiasm for the game and has a lot of connections with GM's but his opinion on baseball is mostly awful. I don't know that I'd do that deal even if AZ swallowed the whole contract. OK, mild exaggeration. But I'm not remotely convinced that Greinke can outpitch anyone currently in the Sox rotation for the next two years, let alone the three after that. I expect both Kopech and Devers to be providing similar or even more excess value than a fully-subsidized Greinke by 2019. And they don't need a pitcher until then. Bowden almost never makes any sense. I mean, in a vacuum he might be closer to the truth, but as constituted that would be a wholly nonsensical deal for the Sox. I think Greinke bounces back, but that just seems like a crazy amount to give up, even if they threw in 50 million. I also worry how he would handle the Boston media. Maybe I'm wrong, but those could be the top 2 players in a Sale trade.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Nov 30, 2016 2:08:56 GMT -5
Or two of the top players on the RED Sox in two years. I am fine with the existing rotation which has the potential, without Sale, to be among the best.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 30, 2016 2:48:08 GMT -5
Or two of the top players on the RED Sox in two years. I am fine with the existing rotation which has the potential, without Sale, to be among the best. I agree 100%. My point was simply if your trading for Grienke and have to trade those two and take on Grienke s money at his age, why not just get Sale for a little more.
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Post by voiceofreason on Nov 30, 2016 5:58:29 GMT -5
Grienke has a history of anxiety issues, why would anyone think that Boston would be a good place for him? I would think he would end being like Bucholtz, moments of greatness surrounded by frustrating stretches.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 30, 2016 6:19:58 GMT -5
Grienke has a history of anxiety issues, why would anyone think that Boston would be a good place for him? I would think he would end being like Bucholtz, moments of greatness surrounded by frustrating stretches. Well in the winter of 2015/2016 Greinke was target number 2 for Dave Dombrowski after David Price, so I think he might of thought Greinke was good for Boston. Either way I'm glad they got Price instead. With Greinke, the Sox would be without Jay Groome. At least with Price we all got to see arguably one of the most talented players in the draft of 2016 actually drafted by the Sox in Groome.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 30, 2016 8:49:52 GMT -5
Ryan Howard has a .269 on-base percentage since the start of 2015. He is not an option. Fun fact: Ryan Howard has a negative bWAR for the decade. I wanted to expound on this a tad further. In the "Acquiring a 1B/DH" thread, Eric put together a handy guide tool. We can debate the merits of the calculations at the margins, but I think we can all agree that it's a generally useful base tool, yes? Here's a handy table showing the wRC+ needed for various 1B / DH solutions. I show the break-even point and the wRC+ that'll get you a 1 WAR upgrade over 150 games. Each type of 1B solution is listed twice, once for an average defender and once for a +5. (In the course of throwing this together, I found some tweaks I needed to do to the big analysis from last night; those edit are in red.) Role 0 WAR 1 WAR full time DH 120 133 0 D full time 1B 109 122 +5 D full time 1B 102 115 0 D LH 1B 109 129 +5 D LH 1B 105 125 Ryan Howard has a < 95 WRC+ in four of the last five years. Steamer projects him at 79 for 2016. From 2006 to 2009, Howard was a good player, but it's hard to even envision him as a plus Triple-A player right now.
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