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2016-2017 Red Sox Offseason (Non-Manager) Discussion
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 30, 2016 9:17:16 GMT -5
I think the logic for a Howard signing was that he's a LHH 1B who can still somehow run into 20 home runs. Beyond that, he has absolutely no value. It's like you (or maybe someone else?) said, he has a negative war for the decade, and hasn't been worth more than .4 war since 2011.
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2016 14:42:40 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Nov 30, 2016 14:50:28 GMT -5
I'd be fine with Napoli
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 30, 2016 14:53:12 GMT -5
.... I... what? Did everyone stop paying attention to Napoli's season around July-ish and just take for granted that the rest of the season followed suit? I know he's got the clubhouse leader thing going, and he's probably pretty cheap. He's an okay option for a team that needs a 1B/DH. But he's had many good seasons, and 2016 wasn't one of them. In his last 40 games he hit .157/.292/.279. He was a disaster in the playoffs. His defense took much more than just a step backwards. Is Napoli the new Jonny Gomes where he keeps being okay on winning teams and getting so much undue credit for it that it reaches the point of being a running gag that nobody is even sure is ironic anymore?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 30, 2016 17:01:40 GMT -5
.... I... what? Did everyone stop paying attention to Napoli's season around July-ish and just take for granted that the rest of the season followed suit? I know he's got the clubhouse leader thing going, and he's probably pretty cheap. He's an okay option for a team that needs a 1B/DH. But he's had many good seasons, and 2016 wasn't one of them. In his last 40 games he hit .157/.292/.279. He was a disaster in the playoffs. His defense took much more than just a step backwards. Is Napoli the new Jonny Gomes where he keeps being okay on winning teams and getting so much undue credit for it that it reaches the point of being a running gag that nobody is even sure is ironic anymore? I mean, he did fall off the rails entirely down the stretch, but he was hitting .266/.351/.530 as late as August 15. I think you're being a little harsh here, especially given that you could DH him a fairly significant amount and that it's not like you'd be breaking the bank (FG numbers have him at about 2/20).
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 17:13:00 GMT -5
I don't know that I'd do that deal even if AZ swallowed the whole contract. OK, mild exaggeration. But I'm not remotely convinced that Greinke can outpitch anyone currently in the Sox rotation for the next two years, let alone the three after that. I expect both Kopech and Devers to be providing similar or even more excess value than a fully-subsidized Greinke by 2019. And they don't need a pitcher until then. Bowden almost never makes any sense. I mean, in a vacuum he might be closer to the truth, but as constituted that would be a wholly nonsensical deal for the Sox. I think Greinke bounces back, but that just seems like a crazy amount to give up, even if they threw in 50 million. I also worry how he would handle the Boston media. Maybe I'm wrong, but those could be the top 2 players in a Sale trade. Yeah, I think we're on the same page, on just about every point. Not that I don't like Greinke, but Boston's not really amenable to anxiety issues, and I think the guys they already have are capable of putting up fairly similar numbers. That's a huge ransom in cash and players for a risky, marginal improvement.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 17:16:44 GMT -5
I hadn't thought of Howard being an option. Could probably get him on a cheap 1 year deal, and if he totally bombs we could just cut him. Then Again, he's been worth -2.2 war over the past 5 seasons, so I'm very skeptical he could provide any value at all. Also, am I the only one who totally forgot that Castillo is a Red Sox? Yeah, I mention Howard strictly as depth with some possible upside. He should only be getting AB in a pinch. I just think that, for a million or two, they get a replacement-level player who could provide some LH power and maybe a little upside.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 17:17:14 GMT -5
And no, I keep forgetting about Castillo myself.
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 30, 2016 17:18:32 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity.
I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 30, 2016 17:24:08 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity. I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year? i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample.
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Post by rookie13 on Nov 30, 2016 17:37:02 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity. I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year? i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample. I haven't heard much about interest in him, and that's why I'm thinking he *might* be available for two years. Most predictions for him were at 3 years and anywhere from 50-65 million. Cespedes was 5-6 years and ended up at 4/110. I don't think it's likely he'd sign for two, and I definitely downplayed what his AAV would be, but I'm just spit balling here. I get that cespedes just got the highest AAV of any outfielder ever, but it was still only 4 years. So I guess my thinking that Bautista could be had for 2 years is me thinking the Sox would pay him more per year. 46 million for two years. 25 in year one, 21 in year two. If he has a strong season, which I think he will, he's a strong trade chip if Devers takes the next step forward.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2016 17:43:40 GMT -5
I hadn't thought of Howard being an option. Could probably get him on a cheap 1 year deal, and if he totally bombs we could just cut him. Then Again, he's been worth -2.2 war over the past 5 seasons, so I'm very skeptical he could provide any value at all. Also, am I the only one who totally forgot that Castillo is a Red Sox? Yeah, I mention Howard strictly as depth with some possible upside. He should only be getting AB in a pinch. I just think that, for a million or two, they get a replacement-level player who could provide some LH power and maybe a little upside. Sure, if he'd sign a minor league contract and play in AAA which I highly doubt. But he's not even close to worth a roster spot, even if they expand rosters to 30.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 30, 2016 17:51:59 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity. I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year? i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample. Uhhhhh, Bautista? Or Encarnacion? I don't think either of them are worth anywhere close to Cespedes since I wouldn't want them playing the field much. I think the market is waiting for the CBA agreement. If they expand rosters, up the luxury tax and remove the loss of draft picks, then Encarnacion is going to get a lot more than anyone thought. There's no way in hell Bautista gets 4 years when it looks like he might be in severe decline at age 36. I don't expect huge bounce back seasons for 36 year olds. He might bounce back, but for 4 years? I wouldn't give him more than 1 year.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 30, 2016 18:24:00 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity. I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year? i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample. I don't know, I actually think Bautista is in a really tough spot. I don't know. Cespedes will be roughly as old at the end of that deal as Bautista is right now, and he's got the type of athleticism where you're not worried about him being able to play the field for the next 4-5 years. Bautista on the other hand is already something close to a DH. I think these are factors market weighs very seriously these days. You don't get a big contract just because you hit home runs and collect RBIs (hello Chris Carter). And Bautista didn't even have THOSE numbers last year! Speaking of Chris Carter, he's available. As are Beltran, Moss, Holliday and Napoli, and I guess I'll be generous and include Alvarez, so teams have the option to bargain shop on this type of player. And if there are teams that are still willing to pay a bunch of money for a Big Bat, Bautista has Encarnacion and Trumbo in front of him! So you need a third team willing to spend big money on one of these guys (although Trumbo is still kind of garbage so maybe Bautista is second on the list). I think a two year deal is absolutely possible if not likely for Bautista, and if that's what's out there, he might decide to go one-year and try to re-establish himself for 2017. If I'm going to really put on my prediction hat: Baltimore Orioles, one year deal, big money, very late in the offseason.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 22:40:03 GMT -5
i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample. I don't know, I actually think Bautista is in a really tough spot. I don't know. Cespedes will be roughly as old at the end of that deal as Bautista is right now, and he's got the type of athleticism where you're not worried about him being able to play the field for the next 4-5 years. Bautista on the other hand is already something close to a DH. I think these are factors market weighs very seriously these days. You don't get a big contract just because you hit home runs and collect RBIs (hello Chris Carter). And Bautista didn't even have THOSE numbers last year! Speaking of Chris Carter, he's available. As are Beltran, Moss, Holliday and Napoli, and I guess I'll be generous and include Alvarez, so teams have the option to bargain shop on this type of player. And if there are teams that are still willing to pay a bunch of money for a Big Bat, Bautista has Encarnacion and Trumbo in front of him! So you need a third team willing to spend big money on one of these guys (although Trumbo is still kind of garbage so maybe Bautista is second on the list). I think a two year deal is absolutely possible if not likely for Bautista, and if that's what's out there, he might decide to go one-year and try to re-establish himself for 2017. If I'm going to really put on my prediction hat: Baltimore Orioles, one year deal, big money, very late in the offseason. That prediction looks about right to me.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 23:48:04 GMT -5
Small thing, but Matt Holliday had a big jump in air exit velocity last year. I don't know his pre-2015 numbers, and he was injured last year, but I've got to think some of it was rebound. Still, 5 mph is a very big jump, and his AEV is quite good at around 95 mph. In recognition of Eric's argument, I still think there's value to be had in depth by adding Holliday. I'm pretty confident that, given this additional data, he can put up a WRC+ in Fenway/AL East of 120-130, maybe even a smidge better. Im not sure that he makes much of a difference in light of eric's (quite reasonable rationale), but I think the following should be major considerations: 1) He's played a pretty good 1b in limited exposure. 2) He can play LF passably, particularly in a small venue like Fenway where there's less ground to cover and his arm will be an asset. The flexibility of all three OF regulars to play essentially any OF position (with the likely exception of Benintendi in RF) makes Holliday a terrific 4th/5th OF option and excellent depth. 3) He had a low BABIP last year, but very good IsoP and IsoD, and given the AEV data I think he'll regress well back towards career norms. 4) And this is the big one: on a short, 1+1 deal, and given his name/history, he would be eminently tradable when/if there were a need and/or Moncada/Travis made a real push. Holliday would be a *very* attractive target (look at what NY got for Beltran) for a contender. And that's where I see the real value. He provides depth, if not necessarily a significant performance benefit, AND he's likely to bring back a valuable prospect package.
I think the Sox need to look very thoughtfully at NY's approach last year. The Sox have the benefit of young depth that might very well allow them to cash in on a short-term deal for an historically excellent player who could build some significant value with a rebound in Fenway, and who likewise would serve as a bridge, all while providing RH power and excellent OB skills. He also has more defensive value than Beltran (who they seem to be looking at), is four years younger, and has very little in the way of platoon splits. They really could use another bat against LHPs.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 30, 2016 23:56:56 GMT -5
FWIW, that AEV of Holliday's ranks somewhere near 95th percentile. So he's still ripping the ball, up there in the highest echelon of MLB. Hence, that BABIP is probably more fluke bad luck than skill erosion (though I'd have to look at his granular batted-ball data to really say). The Sox stress a patient up-the-middle approach, so I think he's a great fit philosophy-wise.
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Post by slam761 on Dec 1, 2016 0:06:03 GMT -5
I'm starting to like the idea of signing Bautista if we could get him for two years. He's still a well above average hitter, and is entirely capable of still play the outfield. He may not be a great defender, but he isn't an atrocity. I don't know what his market is/will be, but if he settled for two years to go to the Sox, what do you guys think it would be for? Maybe 18-19MM per year? i think based on the Cespedes deal that Bautista gets at least 4 years at $20M a year minimum, and maybe an option with buy-out for a 5th, but that's just me reading the market based on a small sample. ...wtf? Bautista is 36 and coming off a 1.4 WAR season. He's not remotely comparable to Cespedes, who's 5 years younger and just had 3.2 WAR.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 1, 2016 0:12:42 GMT -5
I just don't see how you can go wrong with Beltran or Holliday. They both hit lefties well and will require short term deals, with no draft pick loss.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 1, 2016 0:25:46 GMT -5
I just don't see how you can go wrong with Beltran or Holliday. They both hit lefties well and will require short term deals, with no draft pick loss. They're both old enough to suffer complete collapse at any point so that's one way you could go wrong with them. Beltran at 40 is especially scary...
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Post by telson13 on Dec 1, 2016 0:39:09 GMT -5
I just don't see how you can go wrong with Beltran or Holliday. They both hit lefties well and will require short term deals, with no draft pick loss. Yeah, I agree. I initially argued for Beltran (who's almost guaranteed to take a 1-year), but the more I think about it, the more I *really* like Holliday. I think Eric's right in that I don't see a huge performance benefit, or necessarily one at all. But Holliday has genuine upside that his projections don't capture (which is why I looked at basically how well his IsoP correlated with rationale (AEV)). And I really, really can't stress how smart (dammit) Cashman was with his trades. Even if Holliday doesn't help performance-wise, I think there's very significant value in *quality* depth, real potential performance upside, and most of all, getting one or two top-100 prospects back for a $7-10M investment. If NY can get the package they did for a 39-y/o Beltran or a guy like Abreu from Houston (he'll be a back-end guy in their now-excellent top-10) for McCann, I'm sure the Sox can get a couple of players like that for a rejuvenated Holliday at the trade deadline. The Sox have so many solid to excellent young players on the cusp that a few smart, 2-year or pillow-contract signings could easily be turned into a massive influx of minor-league talent while bridging to those young guys. I like Beltran, but I think Holliday's suitability for Fenway and 4-year youth benefit make him a much more valuable trade piece. Imagine if, with their current core and fantastic minor league top-5, the Sox could get a haul similar to the Yankees' last summer? They'd be set up for a decade of success.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 1, 2016 0:44:22 GMT -5
I just don't see how you can go wrong with Beltran or Holliday. They both hit lefties well and will require short term deals, with no draft pick loss. They're both old enough to suffer complete collapse at any point so that's one way you could go wrong with them. Beltran at 40 is especially scary... True, but that's the benefit of a 1+1 (PA-vesting option) on Holliday. As long as they keep Shaw, they have their bases covered. At worst, then, it only $10-15M or so (and less if they could unload him for a small return at the deadline). I still contend that they don't "need" offense, because it's a reasonable bet that their pitching is substantially better, and that Benintendi adds a fair amount of offense/defense over last year's LF production.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 1, 2016 1:41:31 GMT -5
Matt Holliday may seem like a bounce-back candidate on the surface, but that .253 BABIP was driven by a career low (by far) line drive percentage of 14.1%. For reference, the lowest LD% by a Red Sox regular last season was JBJ with 18.4%.
Three years ago he had his second lowest BABIP at .298 with his second lowest LD% (tied) of 16.6%. 2 years ago his LD%/BABIP seemed to rebound, but he only played in 73 games, so it may have been a small sample size.
Last year he also had his lowest BB% in a decade (8.2%)
Unless there is an injury or fixable mechanical flaw that can account for all of this, I hope the Red Sox stay far away as I'm afraid he is in the twilight of his career. (disclaimer: I also thought he wouldn't be elite without Coors field - and I was wrong last time)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Dec 1, 2016 2:24:20 GMT -5
I'm sick of hearing about "appealing" 35+ year old ballplayers myself.
JD Martinez is getting traded this off-season. He's clearly the best target if he doesn't cost the Sox a top 5 prospect (top 100 prospects). He's in his prime and would probably be open to playing first base since he can't run around in the outfield anymore. If not, then he's the full-time Dh and part time LF in Fenway. He shouldn't cost THAT much in terms of trade because he's a one year rental.
The first thing I'm doing if I'm Dombrowski is that I'm calling up my old team in the Tigers avnd seeing what the cost for Martinez is. Dombrowski loves bringing in players he's familiar with (Price, Holaday), he should be able to think of this and go for this.
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Post by telson13 on Dec 1, 2016 2:47:34 GMT -5
I'm sick of hearing about "appealing" 35+ year old ballplayers myself. JD Martinez is getting traded this off-season. He's clearly the best target if he doesn't cost the Sox a top 5 prospect (top 100 prospects). He's in his prime and would probably be open to playing first base since he can't run around in the outfield anymore. If not, then he's the full-time Dh and part time LF in Fenway. He shouldn't cost THAT much in terms of trade because he's a one year rental. The first thing I'm doing if I'm Dombrowski is that I'm calling up my old team in the Tigers avnd seeing what the cost for Martinez is. Dombrowski loves bringing in players he's familiar with (Price, Holaday), he should be able to think of this and go for this. You've made your desire for Martinez clear. But it's not happening without including one of the players you don't want to trade. Look at the deal for Beltran, for a half-season. It might cost marginally less in the offseason, but they're not getting a 50% discount. Repeating a non-feasible option does not make it feasible. Yes, Martinez would be great, but not at what the cost is likely to be. They're better off just using $ to plug what really isn't a critical hole to begin with.
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