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Baseball America Red Sox Top 10
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 4, 2016 17:47:46 GMT -5
I asked this one for deepjohn... Thank you buddy! It will be interesting to see where he fits when he gets called up. There is so much value now in having a big (multi-innings) closer in the post-season that I wonder if the Sox will value him more as a Chapman or as a Syndegaard.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 4, 2016 21:19:30 GMT -5
I asked this one for deepjohn... Thank you buddy! It will be interesting to see where he fits when he gets called up. There is so much value now in having a big (multi-innings) closer in the post-season that I wonder if the Sox will value him more as a Chapman or as a Syndegaard. Long term he's a starter until he proves he can't. You would only put him in pen to limit innings, help big league club and get his feet wet.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 4, 2016 22:31:10 GMT -5
Thank you buddy! It will be interesting to see where he fits when he gets called up. There is so much value now in having a big (multi-innings) closer in the post-season that I wonder if the Sox will value him more as a Chapman or as a Syndegaard. Long term he's a starter until he proves he can't. You would only put him in pen to limit innings, help big league club and get his feet wet. My one fear about Kopech is that need/rotation crunch results in him being Rosenthaled instead of Martinezed.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 4, 2016 22:43:01 GMT -5
lol, IMHO
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Post by larrycook on Nov 4, 2016 23:29:54 GMT -5
I can not wait to watch groome pitch next season. He could be incredible in a few years.
Also think benintendi will have a really good rookie season from April til August before crashing into the rookie wall in September.
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Post by deepjohn on Nov 5, 2016 0:42:21 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2016 5:24:10 GMT -5
Alex has written that they had to have a lot of discussion about it and that it was really more 1 and 1a. On the podcast he did with Manuel, which I highly recommend after getting most of the way through it this morning, they say both will be Top 5 prospects in baseball, and listing Benintendi first says more about him moving up than about Moncada. Really, it's kind of a classic ceiling/floor debate, but among two elite prospects. Moncada's got the tools to be a super-duper-star, whereas Benintendi looks like a guy who could certainly be a superstar but maybe not to that level. Meanwhile, Benintendi looks, at the very very worst, like an average to above-average regular, whereas you could see a possibility of Moncada going Lars Anderson on us in Triple-A, although I find it hard to believe that'd happen given the tools alone. Some guys that came into the majors with somewhat similar toolkits, some made it big, some didn't: Carlos Beltran, Ruben Sierra, Bo Jackson, Jose Conseco.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 5, 2016 7:24:05 GMT -5
Alex has written that they had to have a lot of discussion about it and that it was really more 1 and 1a. On the podcast he did with Manuel, which I highly recommend after getting most of the way through it this morning, they say both will be Top 5 prospects in baseball, and listing Benintendi first says more about him moving up than about Moncada. Really, it's kind of a classic ceiling/floor debate, but among two elite prospects. Moncada's got the tools to be a super-duper-star, whereas Benintendi looks like a guy who could certainly be a superstar but maybe not to that level. Meanwhile, Benintendi looks, at the very very worst, like an average to above-average regular, whereas you could see a possibility of Moncada going Lars Anderson on us in Triple-A, although I find it hard to believe that'd happen given the tools alone. Some guys that came into the majors with somewhat similar toolkits, some made it big, some didn't: Carlos Beltran, Ruben Sierra, Bo Jackson, Jose Conseco. So, in addition to naming those four guys who all made it big, at least for a few years, were you going to name some who didn't? Wily Mo Pena?
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Post by ryan24 on Nov 5, 2016 8:32:44 GMT -5
When you look at the first 5 it is probably a no brainer. Beni should be rater higher because he has a track record in the bigs, small as it is. Shows as a quality outfielder and did not appear to be overmatched hitting. Moncada I am concerned about. Eric or one of the other numbers guys can show me to be wrong, but I have very high concerns about moncada's ability to hit in the bigs against quality pitching. Hitting off speed and pitch recognition is a HUGE part of the game in the bigs. 12 strikeouts out of 19 at bats, ouch. Moncada does not seem to have those skills at the moment, and maybe never will. Not writing him off just saying that he needs to make some BIG adjustments. Devers is coming up to the make or break period the next 2 years. AA is a big jump from A. His track record shows he is very capable. I believe he is going to do fine. Kopech and Groome are very young. Not a lot of innings on their arms yet. The sky is the limit. But pitchers and arm injuries happen a lot. HUGE fan of them both making the sox and doing extremely well.
The next 5 are very interesting. Travis appears capable of hitting big league pitching, just not at a power level for first base. Dubon hit very well at AA which normally is a pitchers league, although it has changed somewhat over the last couple of years. Defense, it looks like he can play several positions at the big league level. The next 3 I am all over the map on. Basabe and Dalbec have not made it to AA and I do not believe at this date that they can hit advanced level pitching. Raudes is small, young and not over powering. All 3 could end up being all stars but right now for me the jury is still out.
Overall I agree on the standings on these prospects. It may not sound like it, but I like our farm system, just not as over the top as many on this site appear to be. I can see 3 maybe 4 making the sox and doing very well. I would say our farm system is certainly in the top 10 in baseball. Which when you look at the number of young guys on the sox is, actually extremely good.
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Post by ryan24 on Nov 5, 2016 8:35:06 GMT -5
Please stop proposing trades of 3 and 4 young prospects/players for one trades. The guys that are worth those type of trades are not going to be traded anyway and why wreck the program.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 5, 2016 8:38:51 GMT -5
Alex has written that they had to have a lot of discussion about it and that it was really more 1 and 1a. On the podcast he did with Manuel, which I highly recommend after getting most of the way through it this morning, they say both will be Top 5 prospects in baseball, and listing Benintendi first says more about him moving up than about Moncada. Really, it's kind of a classic ceiling/floor debate, but among two elite prospects. Moncada's got the tools to be a super-duper-star, whereas Benintendi looks like a guy who could certainly be a superstar but maybe not to that level. Meanwhile, Benintendi looks, at the very very worst, like an average to above-average regular, whereas you could see a possibility of Moncada going Lars Anderson on us in Triple-A, although I find it hard to believe that'd happen given the tools alone. Some guys that came into the majors with somewhat similar toolkits, some made it big, some didn't: Carlos Beltran, Ruben Sierra, Bo Jackson, Jose Conseco. Errr... you have Beltran as one of the ones who made it big, right? 536 doubles, 421 homers, 312 steals, 2617 hits, 1051 walks, 70.4 career bWAR. He's only a borderline Hall of Famer because the standards for the Hall of Fame have suddenly become ridiculous. If Moncada has anything close to that career I'll be thrilled.
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Post by ryan24 on Nov 5, 2016 8:46:26 GMT -5
Please stop proposing trades of 3 and 4 young prospects/players for one trades. The guys that are worth those type of trades are not going to be traded anyway and why wreck the program. Actually this idea is or can be one of the fun parts of the winter discussions.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Nov 5, 2016 10:17:43 GMT -5
I'll take Devers over Moncada but I agree with the rest of the ranking. PS: Speaking of ranking, why is Moncada's floor is a 5, while Benny's is a 4.5 on SP.com ranking? Isn't the other way around?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2016 10:54:29 GMT -5
Agree with the general consensus on here. If both players reach their ceiling, Moncada is the better player. But Benintendi is a safer bet to reach that ceiling. I'm fine with him being ahead of Moncada. Having two consensus top 10 prospects is worth celebrating, and having another (Devers) not far behind is even better.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 5, 2016 14:36:22 GMT -5
The only thing I'm sure of at this point: Whoever is the lesser prospect is by far the best second-best prospect the Red Sox have ever had.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 5, 2016 17:52:49 GMT -5
When you look at the first 5 it is probably a no brainer. Beni should be rater higher because he has a track record in the bigs, small as it is. Shows as a quality outfielder and did not appear to be overmatched hitting. Moncada I am concerned about. Eric or one of the other numbers guys can show me to be wrong, but I have very high concerns about moncada's ability to hit in the bigs against quality pitching. Hitting off speed and pitch recognition is a HUGE part of the game in the bigs. 12 strikeouts out of 19 at bats, ouch. Moncada does not seem to have those skills at the moment, and maybe never will. Not writing him off just saying that he needs to make some BIG adjustments. Devers is coming up to the make or break period the next 2 years. AA is a big jump from A. His track record shows he is very capable. I believe he is going to do fine. Kopech and Groome are very young. Not a lot of innings on their arms yet. The sky is the limit. But pitchers and arm injuries happen a lot. HUGE fan of them both making the sox and doing extremely well. The next 5 are very interesting. Travis appears capable of hitting big league pitching, just not at a power level for first base. Dubon hit very well at AA which normally is a pitchers league, although it has changed somewhat over the last couple of years. Defense, it looks like he can play several positions at the big league level. The next 3 I am all over the map on. Basabe and Dalbec have not made it to AA and I do not believe at this date that they can hit advanced level pitching. Raudes is small, young and not over powering. All 3 could end up being all stars but right now for me the jury is still out. Overall I agree on the standings on these prospects. It may not sound like it, but I like our farm system, just not as over the top as many on this site appear to be. I can see 3 maybe 4 making the sox and doing very well. I would say our farm system is certainly in the top 10 in baseball. Which when you look at the number of young guys on the sox is, actually extremely good. Javier Baez is the guy I think of when I worry about Moncada. But Baez is coming along.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 5, 2016 18:54:55 GMT -5
Some guys that came into the majors with somewhat similar toolkits, some made it big, some didn't: Carlos Beltran, Ruben Sierra, Bo Jackson, Jose Conseco. So, in addition to naming those four guys who all made it big, at least for a few years, were you going to name some who didn't? Wily Mo Pena? Ruben Sierra put up 13.9 fWar over parts of 20+ years, that's not big except big disappointment when compared to what people projected. I thought about Willy Mo but Willy, although fast for a big guy, wasn't plus speed and his range was atrocious, he ran in circles. Cano doesn't have the speed but is otherwise similar. Trout has the SB but I don't think (but easily might be wrong) that his speed is plus. I'll add one that sort of made it big, Ricky Henderson. ADD: Grady Sizemore, and reluctantly Ryan Westmoreland. ADD: True 5 tool players are rare and it should go as no major surprise that as a whole they are successful which is basically what Chris was alluding to (or minimally influenced by) in his original post statement. This is top of my head and opinionated on the tools and therefore American League slanted. Actually, a young Beltran is the player he reminds me most of. I'd be thrilled as well.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 5, 2016 22:56:25 GMT -5
The only thing I'm sure of at this point: Whoever is the lesser prospect is by far the best second-best prospect the Red Sox have ever had. Jacoby + Clay? I remember Clay was a ridiculous prospect, I honestly don't remember if Jacoby was as highly thought of.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 5, 2016 23:14:35 GMT -5
The only thing I'm sure of at this point: Whoever is the lesser prospect is by far the best second-best prospect the Red Sox have ever had. Jacoby + Clay? I remember Clay was a ridiculous prospect, I honestly don't remember if Jacoby was as highly thought of. I think Benintendi-Moncada is much better at both spots, prospect-wise. Pitchers pan out a lot less often, too. Actually, even after the Espinoza trade, the 1-2-3-4-5 right now is the best I've ever seen for the Sox, and up there all-around. The ceilings of those guys are just incredible. And it's not like they're all in A ball, either. There's a very nice spread across the levels, so that we can probably expect 1-2 arrivals per year over the next 3-4 years.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2016 8:42:36 GMT -5
When you look at the first 5 it is probably a no brainer. Beni should be rater higher because he has a track record in the bigs, small as it is. Shows as a quality outfielder and did not appear to be overmatched hitting. Moncada I am concerned about. Eric or one of the other numbers guys can show me to be wrong, but I have very high concerns about moncada's ability to hit in the bigs against quality pitching. Hitting off speed and pitch recognition is a HUGE part of the game in the bigs. 12 strikeouts out of 19 at bats, ouch. Moncada does not seem to have those skills at the moment, and maybe never will. Not writing him off just saying that he needs to make some BIG adjustments. Devers is coming up to the make or break period the next 2 years. AA is a big jump from A. His track record shows he is very capable. I believe he is going to do fine. Kopech and Groome are very young. Not a lot of innings on their arms yet. The sky is the limit. But pitchers and arm injuries happen a lot. HUGE fan of them both making the sox and doing extremely well. The next 5 are very interesting. Travis appears capable of hitting big league pitching, just not at a power level for first base. Dubon hit very well at AA which normally is a pitchers league, although it has changed somewhat over the last couple of years. Defense, it looks like he can play several positions at the big league level. The next 3 I am all over the map on. Basabe and Dalbec have not made it to AA and I do not believe at this date that they can hit advanced level pitching. Raudes is small, young and not over powering. All 3 could end up being all stars but right now for me the jury is still out. Overall I agree on the standings on these prospects. It may not sound like it, but I like our farm system, just not as over the top as many on this site appear to be. I can see 3 maybe 4 making the sox and doing very well. I would say our farm system is certainly in the top 10 in baseball. Which when you look at the number of young guys on the sox is, actually extremely good. Javier Baez is the guy I think of when I worry about Moncada. But Baez is coming along. I agree about the Javier Baez comparison. I see a lot of similarities between the two players. Both are spectacular athletes, both play with a lot of swagger, both have a knack for trying to make the spectacular play that sometimes backfires (I'm reminded of Game 7 of the World Series when Baez tried to turn a barehanded double play instead of taking the sure out at second). That's my concern with Moncada. He has stand-out athleticism, but will he be a good baseball player? Or...will he always have a little Yasiel Puig in him, where the production doesn't match the stand-out tools?
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 7, 2016 8:14:34 GMT -5
Moncada and Baez have totally different approaches at the plate though. Baez is/was hyper-aggressive, while Moncada's strikeouts stem from often being too passive. He works deep counts, which is great and leads to a ton of walks, but he also seems to let hittable pitches pass early in counts and just ends up in a lot of two-strike situations. Usually players with that issue aren't the ones who punish the ball when they make contact like Moncada does, which is why I'm very, very confident it's fixable (if it's even something that's broken). At the plate he reminds me more of a young Joey Votto than someone like Javier Baez or Yasiel Puig.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Nov 7, 2016 11:48:26 GMT -5
When Moncada is ready for the majors, his biggest impact will be his baserunning. Benny's best tool in my opinion is his hit tool. I would be shocked if both don't make a few all-star games.
Kopech's future will depend on his control. Right now I see Kopech as another Joe Kelly.
This coming year will be very important for most of our top prospects.
I wish we had more depth in our minors. Hopefully this coming IFA will have the same rules and we can replenish our depth. Keeping our first round pick and having another good draft will go a long ways.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 17:47:33 GMT -5
Moncada and Baez have totally different approaches at the plate though. Baez is/was hyper-aggressive, while Moncada's strikeouts stem from often being too passive. He works deep counts, which is great and leads to a ton of walks, but he also seems to let hittable pitches pass early in counts and just ends up in a lot of two-strike situations. Usually players with that issue aren't the ones who punish the ball when they make contact like Moncada does, which is why I'm very, very confident it's fixable (if it's even something that's broken). At the plate he reminds me more of a young Joey Votto than someone like Javier Baez or Yasiel Puig. That's a good point. At first glance it's easy to make a comparison with the high strikeout totals, but digging a little deeper might tell a different story. Not all strikeouts are created equal. Moncada has posted a far better K/BB ratio at the minor league level than Baez ever did, which bodes well for him as he moves up the ladder.
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Post by James Dunne on Nov 8, 2016 8:04:05 GMT -5
The only thing I'm sure of at this point: Whoever is the lesser prospect is by far the best second-best prospect the Red Sox have ever had. Jacoby + Clay? I remember Clay was a ridiculous prospect, I honestly don't remember if Jacoby was as highly thought of. Just saw this now. Ellsbury never cracked the Top 10, but yeah that was probably the second best combo over the last 25 years or so.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 8, 2016 8:59:40 GMT -5
If you listen to the BA podcast on the Sox prospects, Manual thinks both Moncada and Benintendi will be in BA's top 5. We've never done that before.
Now, Kopech is "the talk of the AFL"* and the "The consensus among scouts is that he's the best pitching prospect in the AFL"**. Has anyone ever seen the word consensus when used in reference to scouts ?
This is awesome in comparison to the many years where our strength was depth.
* DD ** Callis
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