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2017 projected lineup thread
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 18, 2017 11:43:40 GMT -5
One nice thing in the RHP-facing lineup is that it's not totally necessary to split Moreland up from the other switch-hitters because I don't see a lot of hesitation in pinch-hitting for him. I agree that Moreland should be seeing as few LHP as possible, but if that becomes a common ritual, who is the guy on this roster that finishes those games at 1B? Yeah, this is an important question, and I think it'll have a large effect on how often Farrell actually PH's for him. Right now, Young and probably Rutledge are going to be the two PH options vs LHP, and neither of them can play first base. Hanley's the only other first baseman on this roster, and I'm not sure how often they'll forfeit he DH to slide him over there. Holt comes to mind as a guy you could stick over there for a few innings and get away with it, but he's not a great fit. Sandoval used to be a pretty decent first baseman in San Francisco, albeit in limited time. Having Holt or Rutledge enter a game and the ability to slide Sandoval over to first would be convenient, although depending on how Sandoval's right-handed swing looks, you may want Rutledge or even Holt going in directly for him. I also don't think they'll try Pablo at first any time soon, with them wanting him to focus on a disciplined routine getting back to competency at third base, at the plate, etc.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 18, 2017 11:58:16 GMT -5
Chris Young should pick up a 1B mitt and try it out.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 18, 2017 12:19:00 GMT -5
I think you'll see Sam Travis at some point.....he's perceived as our future at 1B. Red Sox will sign Eric Hosmer next offseason to be future 1B. Good defense, left handed...makes a lot of sense. Yuck-- Hosmer is a huge overpay candidate, and an overrated player in general. His first base defense ranges from average to bad per both UZR and DRS (he's probably close to average though), he can't hit lefties, and he's merely solid against righties. Here's a good Fangraphs article detailing his 2016 issues, excerpts below: The article also notes he hits the ball very hard -- he finished 9th in exit velocity last season. But how much do you invest in a guy who is fine now, but needs some swing tweaks to reach his full potential, when there's no guarantee he'll ever get there? Not sure how likely it is that Hosmer heavily outproduces Sam Travis paired with a left-handed option in 2018.
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Post by Coreno on Feb 18, 2017 13:08:16 GMT -5
Yeah, Holt and Pablo popped up in my mind as possibilities since they may be the only guys with 1B experience other than Moreland and Hanley (who I doubt they bring in to field from DH other than a few weird situations). Even though Pablo would probably be a more "natural fit" sliding across the diamond, I think they rather he just focus on hitting and 3B because he has so much going on, and honestly either of them are really an undersized 1B anyway, Holt only slightly moreso. The only way I think Pablo gets legitimate time at 1B is if he loses a full time stater's job at 3rd partway into the season and they convince him to start working at 1B as well to get more opportunities for playing time.
I agree with jimed on CY. In fact, after I proposed the question yesterday, I tried brainstorming who else could be a possibility and googled Young to see how tall he is. As an aging OF with good defensive tools and a good frame (6'2"), he might benefit from adding 1B to his repertoire. Mark Kotsay comes to mind as a former CF that they had learn 1B as he lost range and became more of a corner guy. Josh Rutledge is also 6'1", so I wonder if they'll have him take some reps at the only IF spot he hasn't played.
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Post by mattpicard on Feb 18, 2017 13:32:08 GMT -5
Yeah, it couldn't hurt to start giving CY some reps at first base, especially with most of his playing time slated to come out of the DH spot right now. He's a declining defensive outfielder, whose arm and diminished range largely limit him to LF at this point. That all said, he was formerly a good outfielder because of how he glided through center field -- he never seemed to have impressive hands fielding laced balls on the ground. And unlike Kotsay, who'd appeared at first base here and there over the years before coming to the Sox (and was a lefty), Young has absolutely no infield experience -- the last time he could have played there would be in high school. All of this isn't to say he can't become a passable first base option, but you'd think they'd want to start getting him some exposure early on in ST, and yet we haven't heard a peep about it.
EDIT: I just asked some of the beat writers, and Pete Abraham says there're rumblings of Rutledge getting 1B reps, but not Young.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 18, 2017 16:44:55 GMT -5
Either Rutledge or Holt would be fine with me - that's the reason you carry utility types, right? Though I suppose that's one reason why they could theoretically consider bringing Selsky north instead of Rutledge.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2017 18:39:55 GMT -5
I think this will be the lineup Farrell uses with Young in Moreland's spot vs lefties:
Pedroia Benintendi Bogaerts Betts Ramirez Sandoval Moreland/Young Leon Bradley
Against righties I'd go:
Pedroia Betts Benintendi Ramirez Bradley Bogaerts Sandoval Moreland Leon
Against lefties I'd put Young behind Bogaerts and move down Sandoval one spot.
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Post by thursty on Feb 18, 2017 19:58:00 GMT -5
FWIW, I ran the analyses using Fangraphs' 2017 projections for OBP and SLG (only considering the lineup against RHP):
Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Sandoval, Bradley, Leon, :runs 5.2300863
The effects are quite small among the best 100 lineups (we're talking 2 runs per year!) But what is consistent: Betts hits 2nd (100%) Leon hits last (100%) Pedroia leads off (~95% -- Bogaerts the other 5%)
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Feb 18, 2017 20:13:03 GMT -5
FWIW, I ran the analyses using Fangraphs' 2017 projections for OBP and SLG (only considering the lineup against RHP): Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Sandoval, Bradley, Leon, :runs 5.2300863 The effects are quite small among the best 100 lineups (we're talking 2 runs per year!) But what is consistent: Betts hits 2nd (100%) Leon hits last (100%) Pedroia leads off (~95% -- Bogaerts the other 5%) 4 RHB in a row, followed by 5 switch hitters/LHB. I just don't see how this lineup ever sees the light of day, especially with Farrell.
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Post by sibbysisti on Feb 18, 2017 21:45:56 GMT -5
I don't want Pedrioa batting anywhere but leadoff. This protects him from hitting into too many double plays. He has to be there everytime he's in the lineup. But that only works for his first AB of the game.
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Post by Coreno on Feb 18, 2017 22:43:45 GMT -5
I don't want Pedrioa batting anywhere but leadoff. This protects him from hitting into too many double plays. He has to be there everytime he's in the lineup. But that only works for his first AB of the game. Not exactly. With Leon/CV hitting 9th, Pedey would likely be getting the most ABs with the bases empty.
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Post by costpet on Feb 19, 2017 9:20:49 GMT -5
I've read that Pedroia doesn't like leading off. Maybe I'm wrong. If Benny looks like a good contact hitter, he might slide to the leadoff position. I have no idea about his speed. The only speed guy I see is JBJ, but I doubt he gets to lead off. With no Ortiz in the lineup, they'll be a lot of mixing and matching in the lineup this year. Every day might be different. Farrell will have fun with that. And we'll have fun taking him to task. Sounds like a good time for all.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2017 12:07:05 GMT -5
I've read that Pedroia doesn't like leading off. Maybe I'm wrong. If Benny looks like a good contact hitter, he might slide to the leadoff position. I have no idea about his speed. The only speed guy I see is JBJ, but I doubt he gets to lead off. With no Ortiz in the lineup, they'll be a lot of mixing and matching in the lineup this year. Every day might be different. Farrell will have fun with that. And we'll have fun taking him to task. Sounds like a good time for all. Mookie and Benintendi are both faster than JBJ who isn't all that fast. With all the right handed bats in the lineup, I doubt if Farrell will use lefty Benintendi to lead off. I also doubt if there will be a whole lot of lineup juggling other than the opponent starting lefty/righty thing.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 19, 2017 12:19:42 GMT -5
Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb 19m19 minutes ago
Andrew Benintendi just crushed one out of the ballpark on his first live BP swing of the year. Left on left vs Brian Johnson #RedSox
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Post by thursty on Mar 10, 2017 16:09:14 GMT -5
Given the discussion surrounding hitting Benintendi 3rd, i.e. with
Pedroia Bogaerts Benintendi Betts Ramirez
a given, the optimal (using the same assumptions and model in my previous post) rest-of-the-lineup is:
Moreland (i.e. 6th) Sandoval Bradley Leon
which is ~ 6 runs worse than the optimal lineup over a season
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Post by doctorduck21 on Mar 10, 2017 16:45:55 GMT -5
Vs RHP 1. Pedroia 2B 2. Bogaerts SS 3. Benintendi LF 4. Betts RF 5. Ramirez DH 6. Bradley CF 7. Moreland 1B 8. Sandoval 3B 9. Leon C
Switch Young and Rutledge with Moreland and Sandoval for vs lefties. That's how I think it'll be done if Benintendi hits 3rd
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Post by Coreno on Mar 10, 2017 17:50:43 GMT -5
I could also see Betts 2nd, Hanley cleanup, and Xander 5th.
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Post by michael on Mar 11, 2017 10:16:00 GMT -5
Am I correct in supposing that when "Replace Moreland & Panda with Young & Rutledge" that means Hanley @ 1st with Young @ DH?
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Post by doctorduck21 on Mar 11, 2017 11:34:46 GMT -5
Am I correct in supposing that when "Replace Moreland & Panda with Young & Rutledge" that means Hanley @ 1st with Young @ DH? Yea I worded that poorly. So versus lefties, it'll be Rutledge at 3rd, Young at DH, and Hanley at 1st
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 11, 2017 21:40:47 GMT -5
You guys think it's smart hitting AB 3rd out the gate?
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 12, 2017 0:22:09 GMT -5
You guys think it's smart hitting AB 3rd out the gate? Yes
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Post by klostrophobic on Mar 12, 2017 12:17:18 GMT -5
I don't want Pedrioa batting anywhere but leadoff. This protects him from hitting into too many double plays. He has to be there everytime he's in the lineup. But that only works for his first AB of the game. Not if they can find three really awful hitters to fill in the 7-8-9 spots of the lineup. I have faith in Dombrowski that he can do it. The problem is the manager will probably have Benintendi hitting 9th for the first month of the season until he's shown that he's capable of hitting .400, at which point he will go to the 8 spot and only sit against 20% of righties so Chris Young can stay in rhythm.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 12, 2017 16:18:53 GMT -5
But that only works for his first AB of the game. Not if they can find three really awful hitters to fill in the 7-8-9 spots of the lineup. I have faith in Dombrowski that he can do it. The problem is the manager will probably have Benintendi hitting 9th for the first month of the season until he's shown that he's capable of hitting .400, at which point he will go to the 8 spot and only sit against 20% of righties so Chris Young can stay in rhythm. As evidenced by Benintendi hitting second or third in every game he's played this spring, naturally.
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Post by bluechip on Mar 13, 2017 6:17:26 GMT -5
FWIW, I ran the analyses using Fangraphs' 2017 projections for OBP and SLG (only considering the lineup against RHP): Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Sandoval, Bradley, Leon, :runs 5.2300863 The effects are quite small among the best 100 lineups (we're talking 2 runs per year!) But what is consistent: Betts hits 2nd (100%) Leon hits last (100%) Pedroia leads off (~95% -- Bogaerts the other 5%) That's an ugly bottom of the lineup when a manager decides to put in his lefty reliver.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 13, 2017 7:06:21 GMT -5
FWIW, I ran the analyses using Fangraphs' 2017 projections for OBP and SLG (only considering the lineup against RHP): Pedroia, Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Moreland, Sandoval, Bradley, Leon, :runs 5.2300863 The effects are quite small among the best 100 lineups (we're talking 2 runs per year!) But what is consistent: Betts hits 2nd (100%) Leon hits last (100%) Pedroia leads off (~95% -- Bogaerts the other 5%) That's an ugly bottom of the lineup when a manager decides to put in his lefty reliver. It's a shame the the Sox bench doesn't have a decent right handed outfield bat, right handed hitting backup third baseman or even a decent defensive catcher should they hit for Leon.
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