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Post by patford on Jul 5, 2017 13:51:31 GMT -5
On the new podcast I was surprised to hear Ian say it would not surprise him if Groome "flamed out" in high A. Ian also said he would not be surprised if Groome became a top of the rotation MLB pitcher. Is the "flame out" lower range based on make-up concerns? Of course Ian may shortly revise his opinion if he strings together a few more strong outings at Greenville (low A ). If you read the scratch, it kind of explains this (although it doesn't make the connection to his comments explicitly). He's got enormous potential, but he's a long way off from reaching it. If the fastball were to sit in the low 90's forever and his command of the pitch not progress, and he fails to develop the changeup or any other third pitch, and his body gets away from him and he gets big (the frame is there if he doesn't watch it), then yeah, he definitely could flame out. No reason to think that'll happen, but it's just a point about how wide the error bars are for him. "High A" may have been a bit low and the product of the comment being off-the-cuff rather than prepared for publication, but the point mostly stands. So no new red flag. The thought of pairing Alex Scherff with Groome appeals to me. Scherff taking a big step forward when he began taking conditioning seriously might motivate Groome. If Groome could add the 4-5 mph on his fastball that Scherff was able to after getting in top shape it would be great. It would be fun to see Mata, Groome and Scherff all on the same staff.
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Post by jmei on Jul 5, 2017 14:45:32 GMT -5
He sounds a lot like Pomeranz at this point. But he has a lot of time to develop an average 3rd pitch. I get the comparison on stuff alone, but Groome is and was significantly younger than Pomeranz when they were drafted. Groome was a HS arm and Pomeranz was drafted out of college. I think this offers Groome a better comparison as far as career projection that merely Pomeranz. With that said I don't know who he would most favorably compare to. If Groome turns out to be as good as Drew Pomeranz, that would be a smashing success (and that's coming from someone who is probably lower than most on Pomeranz). The average draft pick in the 11-15 range has historically produced something like three to six WAR during his first six years of team control in the majors ( link), so the prospect of getting an inconsistent mid-rotation starter out of that pick should not be something to be disappointed about.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 5, 2017 15:13:49 GMT -5
I get the comparison on stuff alone, but Groome is and was significantly younger than Pomeranz when they were drafted. Groome was a HS arm and Pomeranz was drafted out of college. I think this offers Groome a better comparison as far as career projection that merely Pomeranz. With that said I don't know who he would most favorably compare to. If Groome turns out to be as good as Drew Pomeranz, that would be a smashing success (and that's coming from someone who is probably lower than most on Pomeranz). The average draft pick in the 11-15 range has historically produced something like three to six WAR during his first six years of team control in the majors ( link), so the prospect of getting an inconsistent mid-rotation starter out of that pick should not be something to be disappointed about. Also to be fair, there was a lot of talk about Groome being the best player in the draft or close to it. It's still too easy of a comparison to Pomeranz - towering LHP with a low 90s fastball and a great curveball but not much else. There are plenty of pitchers that develop a 3rd pitch after the age of 18 though and that's what we're all hoping for obviously. To be effective and surpass Pomeranz assuming that he develops the hopeful control/command as projected, he would only need an average 3rd pitch that he can throw without stressing his elbow.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 5, 2017 19:26:27 GMT -5
I am going to go way out on a limb and be the first to say it.
But before I say it, I do want to say that I have not yet seen him throw live. This observation is just going off the video.
And what I want to say is this:
Minus the funky hop step, the movement on groome's curve ball, reminds me of kershaw' curveball.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Jul 6, 2017 9:30:16 GMT -5
I get the comparison on stuff alone, but Groome is and was significantly younger than Pomeranz when they were drafted. Groome was a HS arm and Pomeranz was drafted out of college. I think this offers Groome a better comparison as far as career projection that merely Pomeranz. With that said I don't know who he would most favorably compare to. If Groome turns out to be as good as Drew Pomeranz, that would be a smashing success (and that's coming from someone who is probably lower than most on Pomeranz). The average draft pick in the 11-15 range has historically produced something like three to six WAR during his first six years of team control in the majors ( link), so the prospect of getting an inconsistent mid-rotation starter out of that pick should not be something to be disappointed about. Can Drew Pomeranz really be considered an "inconsistent mid-rotation starter"? I think that's seriously selling him short. In the 2016-2017 seasons (the amount of time Pomeranz has been a starter), Pomeranz is 17th in RA9-WAR, 31st in fWAR, and among pitchers with 200+ innings, Pomeranz is 17th in ERA-, 29th in FIP-, 20th in xFIP-, 19th in K-BB%, and 12th in K/9. Considering there are 30 teams in the MLB, those are the stats of a borderline #1/#2. Obviously, if Jason Groome becomes that good, I'd be thrilled
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2017 9:32:18 GMT -5
I'd say that Groome's curve is harder and the shape is tighter than Kershaw's, which has a much bigger break.
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Post by jmei on Jul 6, 2017 15:23:59 GMT -5
If Groome turns out to be as good as Drew Pomeranz, that would be a smashing success (and that's coming from someone who is probably lower than most on Pomeranz). The average draft pick in the 11-15 range has historically produced something like three to six WAR during his first six years of team control in the majors ( link), so the prospect of getting an inconsistent mid-rotation starter out of that pick should not be something to be disappointed about. Can Drew Pomeranz really be considered an "inconsistent mid-rotation starter"? I think that's seriously selling him short. In the 2016-2017 seasons (the amount of time Pomeranz has been a starter), Pomeranz is 17th in RA9-WAR, 31st in fWAR, and among pitchers with 200+ innings, Pomeranz is 17th in ERA-, 29th in FIP-, 20th in xFIP-, 19th in K-BB%, and 12th in K/9. Considering there are 30 teams in the MLB, those are the stats of a borderline #1/#2. Obviously, if Jason Groome becomes that good, I'd be thrilled Well, I did say I was lower on Pomeranz than most. In his 30 games in Boston, Pomeranz has put up a 2.0 bWAR and a 2.2 fWAR, which is what I tend to think he is going forward.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 6, 2017 19:53:26 GMT -5
I'd say that Groome's curve is harder and the shape is tighter than Kershaw's, which has a much bigger break. Please excuse my confusion. When you say harder, do you mean groome throws it with more velocity than kershaw? Also when you say tighter, do you mean groome spins the ball faster than kershaw?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2017 13:14:37 GMT -5
I'd say that Groome's curve is harder and the shape is tighter than Kershaw's, which has a much bigger break. Please excuse my confusion. When you say harder, do you mean groome throws it with more velocity than kershaw? Also when you say tighter, do you mean groome spins the ball faster than kershaw? By harder, yes, I meant that it is thrown at a higher velocity. Kershaw sits low-to-mid 70s while Groome is more mid-to-high 70s. By shape, I'm referring to the path the ball takes toward the plate. Kershaw's has a much bigger break to my quick comparison looking at video. Kershaw probably has an 80 curveball. We probably shouldn't use his curve for comparison to other MLB curves, never mind that of a Low A pitcher with less than 30 pro innings.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 12, 2017 14:58:19 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2017 15:05:38 GMT -5
Holy crap, wow. I wonder if Jay's makeup concerns come from such a winning parent? (if found guilty of course) Anyone know if his parents are/were married?
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Post by jchang on Jul 12, 2017 18:46:21 GMT -5
Last year, Groome's aunt and uncle attended Lowell games. Seemed like nice people, hope the best for jay.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
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Post by jimoh on Jul 12, 2017 19:52:42 GMT -5
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 12, 2017 20:26:52 GMT -5
Wasn't aware. What a terrible position to be put in, and a lot of respect to the Hosmer's for caring for him in that way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 12, 2017 22:07:18 GMT -5
That's a lot of drugs...
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Post by telson13 on Jul 12, 2017 22:39:41 GMT -5
I'm wondering now if this was the non-baseball-related issue teams were concerned about pre-draft. Maybe that Jay might be sucked into it? I really hope he can stay focused and keep developing...that's a huge external crisis to deal with as an 18-y/o. Gotta feel for the kid.
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Post by bookiemetts on Jul 12, 2017 22:54:08 GMT -5
Yikes. Selling heroin and weapons charges... I'd have to guess he'll be watching his son from a very, very small tv only after some good behavior.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 13, 2017 0:48:16 GMT -5
I'm wondering now if this was the non-baseball-related issue teams were concerned about pre-draft. Maybe that Jay might be sucked into it? I really hope he can stay focused and keep developing...that's a huge external crisis to deal with as an 18-y/o. Gotta feel for the kid. If I had to guess from the outside looking in, Jay has probably known his dad has been bad news for years and I'm sure he isn't surprised by it. Probably the best thing for him and his dad in the long run. Now Jay is separated from bad people like that entirely and his dad might get the help he needs. Still stinks for Jay, but you can't pick your family. Edit- This makes me feel better about Jay in a weird way about his "maturity issues." Instead of following in his father's footsteps in a bad life, he chose to play baseball instead.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 13, 2017 5:54:23 GMT -5
As we see from Rick Ankiel, a lot of other issues come from an overbearing drug dealing dad.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2017 9:00:54 GMT -5
Thoughts are with Jay... important to remember that a parents actions have zero to do with their children and no presumptions should be made about Jay due to this. He needs full support from his friends, teammates and community and we are part of that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2017 9:32:07 GMT -5
Let's avoid speculating too much on this. Understandable that there's a certain amount that happens when you read this, but let's not start trying to connect too many dots beyond what's out there. It's public record, it's fine to discuss it, and I think we're fine so far, but let's not start weaving new parts of this into being.
This forum has always been great about that, of course, and I thank everyone for that.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 13, 2017 10:17:57 GMT -5
In consistent mid range starter. What!! The kid is 18 and has not filled out to his projected frame yet. how much time has he spent working with the pitching coaches? Has Bannister worked with him at all? Minor league parks and umpires can leave a lot to be desired. Seems he has some family issues to think on, and is probably away from home for the first time for any extended length of time. Consistent delivery and a clay K type curve seem like sky high projections. Let the kid work his way through. In 2 years lets see where he is. Maybe he becomes another Jon Lester or maybe he is Henry Owens. Lets see how well he works with the pitching coaches and see how much he improves. It seems as he has the potential to be a lester type.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2017 10:35:53 GMT -5
is probably away from home for the first time for any extended length of time. Point of information: He spent his junior year of HS down at IMG Academy in Florida, then returned to NJ for his senior year.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Jul 13, 2017 11:12:01 GMT -5
is probably away from home for the first time for any extended length of time. Point of information: He spent his junior year of HS down at IMG Academy in Florida, then returned to NJ for his senior year. I read the main reason he left IMG was due to homesickness. Big difference though from a 15 or 16 yr old, and an 18 yr old. Also read that when he signed, he bought himself a new car and his mom a new car.....son's are often more close to their mothers....I'll leave it at that
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2017 11:16:37 GMT -5
I've heard different and will leave it at that.
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