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Post by jimed14 on May 17, 2019 6:59:05 GMT -5
Wow, way to go out on a limb Keith. You don't think he'll be able to continue to continue being one of the best hitters in baseball in his rookie season. The good news is that he's still a very good player even if his OPS drops 150 points.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 17, 2019 7:18:25 GMT -5
Actually, after thinking it through, Keith didn't write that headline, that was written by an editor whose job it is to create click bait. Sensationalism creates clicks even if it's a shady tactic. That statement was likely the opening statement which was likely then elaborated on afterwards. It doesn't sound like something Kieth would just throw out, he's not shy with his opinions. I don't have an ESPN subscription so I didn't listen to the podcast.
Baseball journalism is really no different than what we see everyday elsewhere.
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Post by grandsalami on May 20, 2019 18:33:46 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 20, 2019 20:12:22 GMT -5
After the May 20 game, let's do some simple rough extrapolation - which of course won't be accurate or realistic - but just for fun
26 games, 9 HR, 24 RBI
Plays out to, using a multiplier of 6, 54 home runs and 144 runs batted in for a 150 plus game season
He is here to stay - gotta be. How about, for the season, .275, 22 homers, 80 ribbies just to be conservative.
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Post by incandenza on May 20, 2019 21:05:00 GMT -5
After the May 20 game, let's do some simple rough extrapolation - which of course won't be accurate or realistic - but just for fun 26 games, 9 HR, 24 RBI Plays out to, using a multiplier of 6, 54 home runs and 144 runs batted in for a 150 plus game season He is here to stay - gotta be. How about, for the season, .275, 22 homers, 80 ribbies just to be conservative. The fangraphs rest-of-season projections all have him penciled in for an OPS in the .780s going forward, wRC+ between 106 and 109. Those numbers keep creeping up. If the projections come to fruition (still a big if, of course) he'd be on track for about a 3+ WAR season.
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Post by telson13 on May 20, 2019 21:56:34 GMT -5
It’s not obvious though, and here’s why: 1) They want JDM to stay. That means giving him OF time, in a corner. Benintendi should be getting 150 starts a year, so LF is largely out. And Mookie should get 150 starts a year, possibly some CF, but mostly RF. So COF PT is limited. Chavis has the speed for a corner but not CF. 2) JBJ starts slow essentially every year. But he’s also proven to be a 2-4 WAR player...slightly above-average. He’s streaky, yes. But odds are he ends up providing solid value, producing 1 WAR for every $3-5M, well blow FA market. 3) Jarren Duran is looking like a starting OF. Specifically, a starting CF. Moving Chavis to OF requires he play RF (Beni doesn’t have the arm), and moving Mookie to CF. Now you’ve blocked arguably your best prospect (once Chavis’s eligibility is up, which essentially it is). Moving Duran off CF significantly reduces his value. Moving him back to 2b wastes his speed, and puts him at a fast-burnout position. 4) Not one of Pedroia, Lin, Holt, Nunez, or Marco Hernandez is a good bet for average value at 2b (2 WAR). Nunez is terrible defensively and essentially below-replacement. Pedroia is hurt, and may never be back. Lin is *probably* the best bet there, but there are questions re: his offense. He also has significant value as a backup at SS and 3b, where he’s above-average defensively. Holt has *never* played a full season healthy and his best role is as a utility player. Hernandez is a black box coming back from major injury. Chavis has shown average defensive ability at 2b and WELL above-average offense, meaning he’s likely to provide 3-4 WAR at that position. 5) sitting JBJ by playing Chavis obliterates any trade value he has, with 1.5 years left of control. Also, Chavis has less value as a COF where his offense is less stellar relative to league average. And his fielding skills are unknown. Now, I’m all for iving Chavis *reps* in the OF to increase his positional versatility. That’s a great idea, especially if it allows them to break Pedey back in slowly and see what he has, while still keeping Chavis’s bat in the lineup. But a 130-140 wRC+ hitter who can play average 2b is WAY more valuable (and difficult to replace) than is a COF with the same offensive production. Moving Chavis *permanently* to the OF *right now* is just an awful idea, on so many levels. Maybe in a year and a half, when Duran is breaking in, JDM has just 2 years left, and JBJ is a FA, and Mookie is testing the waters, it would make sense. But at the moment, when they have no long-term 2b solution and a TON of questions? No. Just flat-out, no. 1) JD should be moved to 1B when he plays the field. Pairing him up with Moreland at 1B/DH is a perfect fit 2) Benintendi defense & arm is plenty strong enough for RF 3) Duran is to far away for him to be considered about who plays where in Boston 4) These are all professional athletes & can make the moves 5) The best team moving forward is Chavis in LF, Mookie in CF, Benintendi in RF, Martinez at 1B & at 2B in order; Pedroia, Holt, Chatham Lol, I just saw this and literally *none* of your points is valid. JDM to first? Seriously? I mean, you just went 0-5 with 3 whiffs.
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Post by telson13 on May 20, 2019 21:59:57 GMT -5
Chavis is a professional baseball player, he can move to the outfield with little time. This is not new. It has always been this way. If he wants to be in the big leagues he will learn & adapt to the outfield quickly because that's where the playing time is available. This is not a new concept, a rookie learning a new position at the MLB level. He's ready. JBJ needs to take a seat. This isn't rotisserie baseball. Defense matters in the majors and moving guys all over the place is a stupid way to run the club. All of this is because of your idiotic obsession with JBJ. One of the biggest strengths of the ballclub is their outfield defense, which saves the pitchers a ton of runs, but for some reason you choose to be quite obtuse about this. Everybody on this site can see this - the one thing that we actually all agree on - except for you. You choose to be obtuse despite all the statistical evidence that refutes your view. And you start in with this - hey, he's an athlete nonsense. Major league baseball is a little more complicated than just throwing players all over the field like chess pieces. Turning batted balls into outs is a huge factor in winning games. F'ng up your defense is a way for you NOT to win ballgames. Heh heh...we’re arguing with someone who wants to give Nunez playing time. Dude’s an embedded NYY fan, for sure 🤣🤣🤣
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 20, 2019 22:04:04 GMT -5
1) JD should be moved to 1B when he plays the field. Pairing him up with Moreland at 1B/DH is a perfect fit 2) Benintendi defense & arm is plenty strong enough for RF 3) Duran is to far away for him to be considered about who plays where in Boston 4) These are all professional athletes & can make the moves 5) The best team moving forward is Chavis in LF, Mookie in CF, Benintendi in RF, Martinez at 1B & at 2B in order; Pedroia, Holt, Chatham Lol, I just saw this and literally *none* of your points is valid. JDM to first? Seriously? I mean, you just went 0-5 with 3 whiffs. I think he's doing some elaborate troll job because seriously,how could you come up with a terrible take every single time you post something here? I mean even a broken clock is right twice a day right?
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Post by telson13 on May 20, 2019 22:13:37 GMT -5
Lol, I just saw this and literally *none* of your points is valid. JDM to first? Seriously? I mean, you just went 0-5 with 3 whiffs. I think he's doing some elaborate troll job because seriously,how could you come up with a terrible take every single time you post something here? I mean even a broken clock is right twice a day right? Either that or he learned JBJ is single-handedly responsible for those faux-IRS robo-calls claiming the police are on their way to take you into custody. The JBJ obsession is truly pathological.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,915
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Post by ericmvan on May 21, 2019 0:51:45 GMT -5
Wow, way to go out on a limb Keith. You don't think he'll be able to continue to continue being one of the best hitters in baseball in his rookie season. The good news is that he's still a very good player even if his OPS drops 150 points. Of course he's coming down to earth. Of 256 MLB hitters with 100 or more PA, Chavis ranks 16th in wOBA. That obviously includes some good luck in balls in play.
In xwOBA, he only ranks ... 26th.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 21, 2019 6:08:29 GMT -5
Interesting, to me anyway, that with all the great young talent that has come up thru the system over the past 5 years their has not been a ROY winner. So now we have Chavis who if he can come close to maintaining his start would win going away. And everyone says our system is depleted, hempf.
Seems like a real likable guy also. How about 25/80 285/360/530 and a ROY!! Pretty good numbers from your second basemen. What happens to Pedeynow?
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 21, 2019 7:18:24 GMT -5
Don't feed the troll...just hide him. Poof...no posts.
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Post by mandelbro on May 21, 2019 9:12:03 GMT -5
Interesting, to me anyway, that with all the great young talent that has come up thru the system over the past 5 years their has not been a ROY winner. So now we have Chavis who if he can come close to maintaining his start would win going away. And everyone says our system is depleted, hempf. Seems like a real likable guy also. How about 25/80 285/360/530 and a ROY!! Pretty good numbers from your second basemen. What happens to Pedeynow? Good question. I think in a perfect world, you could put Chavis in LF. Then, when you face LHP, Chavis plays in LF and Pedroia at 2B, with JBJ on the bench. When you face RHP, JBJ is in the outfield and Pedroia and Chavis split time at 2B. Throw in spelling Devers at 3B and Martinez/Moreland at 1B/DH and you could still get Chavis in nearly every game. The problems with this: 1) While he might eventually (Cora has hinted at it), Chavis hasn't been exposed to LF yet. He could screw up, and he could also hurt himself there. Messing around with non-OFers in Fenway's LF cost us a catcher and arguably accelerated Hanley Ramirez's demise. 2) JBJ is so streaky, when is going hot, you don't want to risk not playing him everyday. 3) That's a whole lot of re-shuffling, all to shoe-horn a guy into the lineup who hasn't produced in a while.
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2019 11:40:35 GMT -5
Interesting, to me anyway, that with all the great young talent that has come up thru the system over the past 5 years their has not been a ROY winner. So now we have Chavis who if he can come close to maintaining his start would win going away. And everyone says our system is depleted, hempf. Seems like a real likable guy also. How about 25/80 285/360/530 and a ROY!! Pretty good numbers from your second basemen. What happens to Pedeynow? I was thinking that last night. I think your slash line there is about what I’m hoping for; I’m not sure the avg stays up but the hard contact/all-fields should help BABIP, and the whiffs are hovering mid-20%, so maybe he does go .280s. I’m confident the game power is real and, given the league has tried the high FB and Chavis has made some adjustments, i think it’ll continue to some extent. He’s basically, to this point, been rookie-year Aaron Judge, which is quite clearly unlikely to continue. But with solid defense at second, and the bat, he should get plenty of PAs for his counting stats. I think he actually does hit 30 hr, as tall of an order as that is. I’m hoping he keeps up the walks, too, which ends been a terrific surprise. Interesting actually that, with Judge, the “new book” when he was in about 150 PA was similar to Chavis: high heat. And yet he continued to hit. Chavis has a smaller zone, so a little less margin for error. I wouldn’t rule out Guerrero Jr from doing something ridiculous and ending up hitting .320/.400/.550, but right now Chavis has gotta be the front runner.
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Post by jimed14 on May 21, 2019 11:45:09 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on May 21, 2019 11:53:01 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2019 12:04:49 GMT -5
Yeah, I’ll take the guy with twice the walk rate and 2/3 the K rate. Give it another 6 weeks.
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Post by soxin8 on May 21, 2019 13:46:45 GMT -5
Chavis may overtake Lowe soon at this rate but may have trouble holding off Vlad Jr.
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Post by hammerhead on May 23, 2019 6:08:11 GMT -5
I thought it was pretty cool to see Marcus Walden at 30 years of age get ROY votes and interesting to see Ty Buttrey
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Post by voiceofreason on May 23, 2019 9:11:53 GMT -5
Chavis has basically the same production as Lowe while playing 28 games to Lowes 42. I will take Chavis in that race given that Lowe has played 50% more at this point.
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Post by bluechip on May 23, 2019 9:56:03 GMT -5
Chavis may overtake Lowe soon at this rate but may have trouble holding off Vlad Jr. Guerrero looks so impressive and he’s only 20. His father’s power broke out in a big way at way at age 23.
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Post by James Dunne on May 23, 2019 10:03:20 GMT -5
Chavis may overtake Lowe soon at this rate but may have trouble holding off Vlad Jr. Guerrero looks so impressive and he’s only 20. His father’s power broke out in a big way at way at age 23. Fun looking back at some old lines: it took Vlad Sr. just 20 games to graduate from the FSL: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guerre001vlaKinda crazy that they kept him crushing the SAL for an entire season in '95.
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Post by jimed14 on May 23, 2019 10:13:33 GMT -5
I will say that Vlad Jr is going to have to watch his weight.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,233
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Post by radiohix on May 26, 2019 18:07:37 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks.
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Post by patford on May 26, 2019 22:07:32 GMT -5
We're still dealing with a small sample size here but there's some stats that tend to stabilize very quickly (I call them "scouting stats"). My favorite is the Z-contact% which give you the percentage of times when a hitter swings at a pitch in the zone and makes contact and frankly they depicting not a very positive image of things to come for Mike: His z-contact% is 75% and after tonight it'll be even lower. That's not good. To give an idea, the league average hitter makes contact 84.8% of the time, the swing and miss king Joey Gallo makes contact 74.8%. The fact that his strikeouts are in the 28% territory is quite an accomplishment lol. He has to keep drawing walks and hitting for power to compensate for his lack of contact because I'm expecting that batting avg to dip in the coming weeks. I think most people would agree that he could hit .220 and if he hit 25 hr with a decent OBP it would be fine. Pedroia is done. He isn't coming back.
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