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Post by jchang on Aug 26, 2019 15:14:52 GMT -5
it is difficult to predict from first year stats .284/.338/.482 Devers .288/.325/.509 Middlebrooks .285/.331/.549 Chris Davis
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 26, 2019 15:28:32 GMT -5
I fully agree with you. He has done some amazing things for a relatively inexperienced kid. He was considered a bit of defensive liability in the minors, but has largely disproved that by playing pretty good 1B and 2B at the Major League level, despite being unfamiliar with either position. He has shown himself to be both a better athlete and to have more baseball smarts than most anyone expected, as a very rushed prospect and a young, raw rookie. Reports are that he is a hard worker, coachable, and a dedicated, happy baseball rat. Kids like this are more likely to put in the time and energy to deal with holes in their swing, figure things out like footwork which is a good thing as, like so many before him, he has to go through the learning curve in the Majors. I hope the Sox bet on his ability to adjust, adapt, grow at Fenway and keep him, at 2B. Also, aong with Bogey at SS their RHB fit in perfectly with likely 2020 middle infield utility players and LHB Holt, Marco, Lin. I see him as the platoon 2B next year, pairing with either a returning Brockstar or Marco Hernandez. But he'd see a lot of action against RHP, as it wouldn't be a strict platoon, and he'd be in the lineup on most days where an OF was sitting. He has a good chance of ending up as a full-time regular there.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 26, 2019 19:04:21 GMT -5
Exactly. He is still young and raw. The veteran presence of Brockstar would be reminiscent of Cora and Pedey back in the day, especially as Holt is also experienced at 1B and 3B where Chavis might also see time. In this light, Holt is also a good lefty backup for a mostly (assuming Dalbec or Travis at 1B) righty IF. Holt also backs the OF, is a good hitter in his own right, and seems to be a truly positive force in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community. There is no one who could remotely replace his input for 2020. He already costs a little more than $3.8M, a bargain for all he brings. Add what, another $1M for 2020, or a one plus one at $8M total, til he retires a Red Sox? Still a bargain.
I really like both Holt and Marco on the bench for 2020 but think it possible Marco would be really valuable in a trade for someone looking for a youngish, proven, rehabbed, good hitting lefty 2B with some speed and versatility. I hope the Sox keep the Chief and Brockstar at 2B. They make a uniquely complete baseball package.
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Post by jimmydugan on Aug 26, 2019 19:39:17 GMT -5
Exactly. He is still young and raw. The veteran presence of Brockstar would be reminiscent of Cora and Pedey back in the day, especially as Holt is also experienced at 1B and 3B where Chavis might also see time. In this light, Holt is also a good lefty backup for a mostly (assuming Dalbec or Travis at 1B) righty IF. Holt also backs the OF, is a good hitter in his own right, and seems to be a truly positive force in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community. There is no one who could remotely replace his input for 2020. He already costs a little more than $3.8M, a bargain for all he brings. Add what, another $1M for 2020, or a one plus one at $8M total, til he retires a Red Sox? Still a bargain. I really like both Holt and Marco on the bench for 2020 but think it possible Marco would be really valuable in a trade for someone looking for a youngish, proven, rehabbed, good hitting lefty 2B with some speed and versatility. I hope the Sox keep the Chief and Brockstar at 2B. They make a uniquely complete baseball package. I think Marco could easily get 30-50 GS at 2b, 10-20 on the left side of the IF. He might not get a ton of starts, but he could also play most games as the primary IF defensive replacement/pinch runner.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 26, 2019 19:58:03 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly.
Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA.
After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 26, 2019 20:07:25 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly. Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA. After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular. Yes. To this end, it would not surprise if Chief has an extended rehab in AAA working on both his shoulder and improving his swing, with Holt, Marco and OC handling 2B for another week or so before callups.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2019 1:20:35 GMT -5
Exactly. He is still young and raw. The veteran presence of Brockstar would be reminiscent of Cora and Pedey back in the day, especially as Holt is also experienced at 1B and 3B where Chavis might also see time. In this light, Holt is also a good lefty backup for a mostly (assuming Dalbec or Travis at 1B) righty IF. Holt also backs the OF, is a good hitter in his own right, and seems to be a truly positive force in the clubhouse, on the field and in the community. There is no one who could remotely replace his input for 2020. He already costs a little more than $3.8M, a bargain for all he brings. Add what, another $1M for 2020, or a one plus one at $8M total, til he retires a Red Sox? Still a bargain. I really like both Holt and Marco on the bench for 2020 but think it possible Marco would be really valuable in a trade for someone looking for a youngish, proven, rehabbed, good hitting lefty 2B with some speed and versatility. I hope the Sox keep the Chief and Brockstar at 2B. They make a uniquely complete baseball package. Including the post-season, Brock Holt now has 318 career PA with the Axe bat and two functioning corneas, and has hit .336 / .415 / .515. I think that the argument that he and not Benintendi is the 5th best hitter on the team gets stronger with each game. He's not a bench player.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 27, 2019 2:40:19 GMT -5
Believe Holt can get a bit too much via FA than boston should pay him with several other utility guys available already in Hernandez, Lin who could work in time with Chavis at 2b for a bit.
Holt can probably get 5-6m AAV at the least over 2.. maybe 3y and with Boston looking to just maybe get under the lowest cap next season, that 5-6m is a bit much.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 27, 2019 2:53:30 GMT -5
Thanks for that remarkable info about Brockstar. I remember his old coach saying Brock could get a hit while falling out of bed. He’s a hitter. He’s also among the most versatile fielders in baseball. My favorite memory of him is at Fenway, with the announcers, horrified that neither the LF nor SS had any idea where the high fly ball was, when out of the corner of my eye came a blurry white uniform from out of nowhere, topped with flowing hair, diving and tumbling and catching the ball. Stunned silence by all. A magical memory. Is the common wisdom that he doesn’t have the stamina to start in any way valid??? I see him as so valuable to the Sox in general, and to Chavis’ development at 2B in particular (and maybe Dalbec’s at 1B as well). I could see him going far as a coach and even managing. He would even be fun and interesting in the broadcast booth. He is a rare talent. IMO the Sox would be smart to hang on to him.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 27, 2019 4:23:34 GMT -5
Had a hard time pinning down who exactly Chavis is like, but I finally got it offensively at least.
Chavis is basically the reincarnation of Cody Ross as a second and first baseman, instead of a LF/RF. Dead pull hitters, both of their power is/was to the pull side only. Not sure if Chavis is better against LHP in his career (minors and majors), but I can see that coming too. Cody Ross was basically a .310-.330 OBP guy (career .322 OBP). That's exactly what I expect Chavis to be throughout his career. Maybe Chavis maxes out at .340-.350 in a career year. Both are basically 20-25 homerun guys in a full year, maybe Chavis gets 30 in a year or two because of the juiced ball.
Both players had huge holes in their swings, but both had a good swing for Fenway (dead pull only power). Both players could get hot and put up some good power numbers in one month that showed up at the end of the year. Both players had a hard time staying healthy; I expect Chavis' durability issues to pop up at some point. Both were/are good dudes and bring energy.
The Sox are doing okay if they found a 2nd base Cody Ross. Nothing too fancy there, but not terrible.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 27, 2019 10:30:35 GMT -5
Danny Uggla. Chavis has more range to his left and Uggs had a beast of a lower half body. Still.. Chavis has reminded me of Uggs since 1st met him after he was drafted and saw him at a GCL playoff game at Tampa early on.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 27, 2019 10:34:05 GMT -5
Had a hard time pinning down who exactly Chavis is like, but I finally got it offensively at least. Chavis is basically the reincarnation of Cody Ross as a second and first baseman, instead of a LF/RF. Dead pull hitters, both of their power is/was to the pull side only. Not sure if Chavis is better against LHP in his career (minors and majors), but I can see that coming too. Cody Ross was basically a .310-.330 OBP guy (career .322 OBP). That's exactly what I expect Chavis to be throughout his career. Maybe Chavis maxes out at .340-.350 in a career year. Both are basically 20-25 homerun guys in a full year, maybe Chavis gets 30 in a year or two because of the juiced ball. Both players had huge holes in their swings, but both had a good swing for Fenway (dead pull only power). Both players could get hot and put up some good power numbers in one month that showed up at the end of the year. Both players had a hard time staying healthy; I expect Chavis' durability issues to pop up at some point. Both were/are good dudes and bring energy. The Sox are doing okay if they found a 2nd base Cody Ross. Nothing too fancy there, but not terrible. Cody Ross as an infielder? I think I can see that. Uggla was a thought, too.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 27, 2019 12:39:10 GMT -5
Had a hard time pinning down who exactly Chavis is like, but I finally got it offensively at least. Chavis is basically the reincarnation of Cody Ross as a second and first baseman, instead of a LF/RF. Dead pull hitters, both of their power is/was to the pull side only. Not sure if Chavis is better against LHP in his career (minors and majors), but I can see that coming too. Cody Ross was basically a .310-.330 OBP guy (career .322 OBP). That's exactly what I expect Chavis to be throughout his career. Maybe Chavis maxes out at .340-.350 in a career year. Both are basically 20-25 homerun guys in a full year, maybe Chavis gets 30 in a year or two because of the juiced ball. Both players had huge holes in their swings, but both had a good swing for Fenway (dead pull only power). Both players could get hot and put up some good power numbers in one month that showed up at the end of the year. Both players had a hard time staying healthy; I expect Chavis' durability issues to pop up at some point. Both were/are good dudes and bring energy. The Sox are doing okay if they found a 2nd base Cody Ross. Nothing too fancy there, but not terrible. Cody Ross as an infielder? I think I can see that. Uggla was a thought, too. LOL. But the point is a good one. Pedro can see Chavis (in his raw, rushed call up, age 23 rookie season) as a potential Cody Ross type bat with decent defense at 2B, (with some versatility backing 1B and 3B.) This, at league minimum and with room to grow, is worth taking a chance on. And if he does fix some holes, and has the potential for a .330OBP and 30HR, he would be even better, and this is possible. IMO he is already a better fielder than Dan Uggla, so there is that to think about.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2019 13:27:16 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly. Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA. After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular. If he doesn't make a huge adjustment, he's Will Middlebrooks.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 27, 2019 13:35:14 GMT -5
Unpopular opinion but I'll take Chatham over Chavis as a weak side of a platoon at second base. He's hit LHP very well through all his MiLB career. Also, I'll take contact and GG defense over whiffs and power and mediocre defense.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 27, 2019 13:49:38 GMT -5
Unpopular opinion but I'll take Chatham over Chavis as a weak side of a platoon at second base. He's hit LHP very well through all his MiLB career. Also, I'll take contact and GG defense over whiffs and power and mediocre defense. Chatham has hit lefties very well THIS year, but that's a pretty small sample size. Last year he was a .750 OPS guy against lefties in in A-ball, which is significantly worse than where Chavis was at the same level. That said, you might well be right that Chatham will quickly become a better player than Chavis based on his defense.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 27, 2019 13:59:04 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly. Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA. After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular. If he doesn't make a huge adjustment, he's Will Middlebrooks. I think he's shown he's deserving of the chance to figure it out and that might mean growing pains. Between injuries, steroids, and organizational need, he was rushed to the majors and didn't have a ton of development time. I can see him being a Dan Uggla type.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 27, 2019 15:30:59 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly. Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA. After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular. By month OPS; April 1.061, May .788, June .730, July .786, and August .456 only 11 games got injured. He hit .271 .329 .457 .786 while striking out a third of the time in July.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2019 17:16:55 GMT -5
Chavis deserves some kind of shot next year. However, relying on him to be an MLB regular without a backup plan would be folly. Apr 20-May 23: .279/.375/.568, 26.6% K rate, 1 HR every 12.8 PA. May 24-Aug. 11: .242/.293/.386, 36.6% K rate, 1 HR every 31.8 PA. After the first month, the book got out on him. He needs to make an adjustment and if he doesn't, he's not a regular. By month OPS; April 1.061, May .788, June .730, July .786, and August .456 only 11 games got injured. He hit .271 .329 .457 .786 while striking out a third of the time in July. He also had a .407 BABIP in July and .372 in August, without the Statcast data to match.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 27, 2019 20:42:43 GMT -5
By month OPS; April 1.061, May .788, June .730, July .786, and August .456 only 11 games got injured. He hit .271 .329 .457 .786 while striking out a third of the time in July. He also had a .407 BABIP in July and .372 in August, without the Statcast data to match. By month .368, .306, .407, .372, and .211 in August. Looking at the top third of pitchers in strikeout and walk rates he really struggles .470 OPS .250 BABIP, average guys .789 .357, bottom third guys .875 .358
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2019 20:53:15 GMT -5
He also had a .407 BABIP in July and .372 in August, without the Statcast data to match. By month .368, .306, .407, .372, and .211 in August. Looking at the top third of pitchers in strikeout and walk rates he really struggles .470 OPS .250 BABIP, average guys .789 .357, bottom third guys .875 .358 The point is, he is still trending downwards and hasn't turned it around, unless you ignore BABIP luck.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 27, 2019 23:57:58 GMT -5
By month .368, .306, .407, .372, and .211 in August. Looking at the top third of pitchers in strikeout and walk rates he really struggles .470 OPS .250 BABIP, average guys .789 .357, bottom third guys .875 .358 The point is, he is still trending downwards and hasn't turned it around, unless you ignore BABIP luck. Is he really though? I mean his April means about as much as his August, both limited games. One red hot, the other ice cold with an injury. In between his numbers basically match his season numbers and make him a slightly below average guy at 2B. There's really only one month were he looked like he didn't belong and that was in limited games in August. I thought his adjustments in July were a very good sign after a rough June. Haven't we moved path the myth that anything under or over .300 is luck? I find a guys career numbers mean a lot more. So what is Chavis numbers in the minors the last few years? Guys that hit the ball as hard as Chavis can certainly outperform BAbip numbers. From 2017 his BAbip is .362, .270, .368, .383, .400, and .347 this year in Boston. So he's shown an ability to outperform over many stops and over a long period. So I'm not going to just call that all luck.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2019 0:00:45 GMT -5
The point is, he is still trending downwards and hasn't turned it around, unless you ignore BABIP luck. Is he really though? I mean his April means about as much as his August, both limited games. One red hot, the other ice cold with an injury. In between his numbers basically match his season numbers and make him a slightly below average guy at 2B. There's really only one month were he looked like he didn't belong and that was in limited games in August. I thought his adjustments in July were a very good sign after a rough June. Haven't we moved path the myth that anything under or over .300 is luck? I find a guys career numbers mean a lot more. So what is Chavis numbers in the minors the last few years? Guys that hit the ball as hard as Chavis can certainly outperform BAbip numbers. From 2017 his BAbip is .362, .270, .368, .383, .400, and .347 this year in Boston. So he's shown an ability to outperform over many stops and over a long period. So I'm not going to just call that all luck. Statcast data clearly showed it was luck since he wasn't hitting the ball hard. I guess I'll have to do all the work now since you don't believe it. Not tonight though.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 28, 2019 10:00:31 GMT -5
Statcast data while a useful tool isn't close to 100% and frankly has the same issues that BAbip has, some players greatly outperform or underperform it year after year. The model is set so the whole matches as closely as they can get it. Yet by doing that you are going to get players that don't fit the model, because of X that isn't accounted for yet or might never be.
Perfect example is Jackie Bradley who has greatly underperformed his wOBA compared to xwOBA to three straight years. Per the numbers he's been crazy unlucky, yet that just isn't true. It's the shifts that kill him and they don't account for that. Overtime I'm sure they'll add more data and improve the data, yet it will never be close to perfect. You can say for the 1,000 time it's the best we have. Which might be true when looking at all players and Baseball as a whole. Yet without knowing how accurate it is on the players level. You can't act like the information is 100% end all, Bradley and many other players prove just that. Those same trends are what killed the anything above and below .300 is just luck myth. It was statistically highly unlikely that it was luck and not skill in some way. The big issue was those skills are all different for different players. For one guy it's he hits the ball hard, other guy it's speed, for Bradley it's the shift, another guy it's he hits a ton of ground balls, etc.
You can't just dismiss three years of well above BAbip numbers. That isn't a small sample size and has meaning. It's not just luck, like explain how a guy gets that lucky?
We'll see long-term what his true MLB BAbip number is, yet the chances are more likely than not that it's going to be above .300 given his recent numbers over the last three years. Unless something greatly changes like a big time shift like with Bradley or Chavis greatly changes his approach, etc.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2019 11:03:40 GMT -5
Welp, I'm not arguing with math, so have fun. I'll await your book explaining how soft contact for hits is a repeatable skill for a guy who is a below average running power hitter who strikes out way too much.
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