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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 28, 2019 12:02:31 GMT -5
The point is, he is still trending downwards and hasn't turned it around, unless you ignore BABIP luck. Haven't we moved path the myth that anything under or over .300 is luck? I find a guys career numbers mean a lot more. So what is Chavis numbers in the minors the last few years? Guys that hit the ball as hard as Chavis can certainly outperform BAbip numbers. From 2017 his BAbip is .362 (59 games in Salem), .270 (67 Games in Portland), .368 (8 games in Pawtucket), .383 (33 games in Portland), .400 (5 games in Greenville), and .347 (95 games) this year in Boston. So he's shown an ability to outperform over many stops and over a long period. So I'm not going to just call that all luck. His BABIP track record is not as convincing as you make it seem, since his overall BABIP was somewhere around .313 in 2017, and he only played like a third of a season last year. Nothing in his batted ball profile suggests he'll be an elite level BABIP guy, which is what he'd need to be to maintain his .347 from this year. You're probably right that the xstats aren't perfect yet, but they're almost certainly better than just looking at the last year and a half and assuming that's how good a guy is.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 28, 2019 12:33:25 GMT -5
Chavis was rushed up to fill a huge void at 2B left by the decline of Nunez, IL of Pedroia, Holt and Marco. He filled that hole admirably, joyfully, while allowing Brockstar and Marco to heal, CJ Chatham to move up to AAA, and the Sox to win some games they really needed to win. He also proved himself at 1B with both MM and Pearce on the IL. This was a tough assignment for a raw rookie, but he did all that with a smile on his face.
Meanwhile, he surprised us all with competent defense at 2nd and 1st, the majesty of his HR trajectories, and his upbeat personality on a struggling team. Now the game of adjusting has begun in earnest. Holes have been identified and categorized.
I hope we can agree that with so little playing time in the minors, this fairly recent 1st round pick was not a finished product. His development at the MLB level is ongoing out of necessity. Landing on his shoulder after making that amazing catch (which few on this board thought he had the ability to make) has bought him some minor league time to learn how to fill those holes while also learning his new positions. He has the offseason and ST to continue learning and growing. IMO he has earned that chance.
If, ultimately, we can hope that his true talent level is that of a decent fielding 2B and backup 1B and 3B, with a bat like the already suggested Dan Uggla or Cody Ross, with team control into his 28 year old prime, then yippee kai yay, we got another good homegrown player. Stats can wait. I look forward to his filling holes on the team as he fills the holes in his swing.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 28, 2019 12:43:39 GMT -5
Well, a question is: can Chavis hit the high fastball? Is that a flaw of his that he cannot improve upon? Is it a physical issue of catching up?
Here's a snippet below from Rob Bradford's latest article where Michael Chavis weighs in with his opinion.
The league now has the book on Chavis, and what makes it even more frustrating for the 24-year-old is that he knows exactly what it is.
"I’ve been struggling with the high fastball, straight-up. That’s what it is," he said. "So in the minor leagues there would be something if I was struggling with that the next series I would have an opportunity to flush it and reset because it’s another series and I could start over. I know how to hit a high fastball but when you kind of get peppered with something every single day you start to buy into it. Honestly, that contributed to it more than the physical part of it, just getting in my own way mentally.
"You start trying to cheat to it or start believing, ‘Maybe I can’t hit a high fastball. Maybe I should lay off of it.’ You get caught in between and you take a half-swing or you check swing. You just get caught in a lot of uncomfortable situations. So a lot of it is getting out of my own way and this will be a great chance to reset."
What makes it even more baffling for the righty hitter is another reminder this time in the minors has offered: Up until this season this high fastball problem was never an issue at all.
"One hundred percent," said Chavis when asked if he could always hit the pitch that has become his Kryptonite. "Even through the minor leagues. Guys have vertical rise. Guys have good fastball and throw hard. I’ve hit high fastballs my whole life. It’s just the mental aspect of getting in my own way."
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 28, 2019 12:53:37 GMT -5
Champs, thanks for that info. IMO he shows awesome self awareness for his age. Self awareness is foundational to improvement for just about everything in life. For example, I am aware that I am perseverating on Chavis getting his shot at MLB, and am trying to stop. Eventually I will. So he has made a good start to resolving this problem, which opens the door to eventually fixing it. His coaches and FO must also be aware that something has gotten in the way of coninuing what used to be a skill, explaining their patience with him as he works it through.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 28, 2019 13:04:36 GMT -5
Champs, thanks for that info. IMO he shows awesome self awareness for his age. Self awareness is foundational to improvement for just about everything in life. For example, I am aware that I am perseverating on Chavis getting his shot at MLB, and am trying to stop. Eventually I will. So he has made a good start to resolving this problem, which opens the door to eventually fixing it. His coaches and FO must also be aware that something has gotten in the way of coninuing what used to be a skill, explaining their patience with him as he works it through. What I got out of it was his opinion that hitting the high fastball was not an issue for him in the minors. Without stats to back it up I can only go with is word. I'm sure somebody here knows better than that. We also know that the typical AAA or AA pitcher doesn't have the kind of high fastball usually that a major league pitcher has, so there is that factor, too. If it is a flaw in his game in which he cannot improve upon then yes, he will probably go the way of say Will Middlebrooks, but if it wasn't a flaw in the minors and if it's something that's getting more in his head from a mental standpoint than a physical reactionary limitation, then why can't he soon get his problem resolved and become a .270ish, .330 OBP, .470 SA type of guy? (As opposed to a guy hitting .230 with a sub .300 OBP and a SA in the .425 range or worse) Like you said, he's very aware of the issue, so that's step 1, but I know I can't hit a high fastball (or a low one or a straight one or a very slow fastball either) and that doesn't mean that I'm suddenly going to figure it out. But I do believe that mental blocks of some sort can form and speed up as a slump occurs. I mean, I remember Xander being unable to handle the outside slider in 2014. I don't remember it being an issue now. I remember hearing that David Ortiz had a hole in his swing prior to his arrival in Boston and obviously if he ever did, it certainly got closed up in a hurry. But even Ortiz had a period of time in Boston where injuries forced him into an unconscious habit that resulted in a loop in his swing that severely hampered his numbers. Once he figured that out and remembered that hitting to LF was an option, Ortiz had himself a helluva second half of his career. Honestly, I'd be surprised if both Dalbec and Chavis were on the team next season, but I'd like to see them both get an opportunity to play every day if their performances merit it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 29, 2019 10:22:03 GMT -5
Haven't we moved path the myth that anything under or over .300 is luck? I find a guys career numbers mean a lot more. So what is Chavis numbers in the minors the last few years? Guys that hit the ball as hard as Chavis can certainly outperform BAbip numbers. From 2017 his BAbip is .362 (59 games in Salem), .270 (67 Games in Portland), .368 (8 games in Pawtucket), .383 (33 games in Portland), .400 (5 games in Greenville), and .347 (95 games) this year in Boston. So he's shown an ability to outperform over many stops and over a long period. So I'm not going to just call that all luck. His BABIP track record is not as convincing as you make it seem, since his overall BABIP was somewhere around .313 in 2017, and he only played like a third of a season last year. Nothing in his batted ball profile suggests he'll be an elite level BABIP guy, which is what he'd need to be to maintain his .347 from this year. You're probably right that the xstats aren't perfect yet, but they're almost certainly better than just looking at the last year and a half and assuming that's how good a guy is. It's 290 games over 3 years and it is well above .300 each year. I have no clue like I said where he'll end up long-term, but it doesn't look like all luck either. Steamers projections had him at .322 before the year, all four projections on Fangraphs had him above average on BAbip. The computers picked up the same pattern I did. That's the issue with BAbip, it's different little things for different players. There isn't one or a set of numbers to show you the BAbip is correct. That is what statcast tries to do and why they fail on certain players. Nothing in Bradley's batted ball profile will explain why he has underperformed for three straight years. We do know after researching decades of BAbip data, that it's a skill and most players hover around a certain range and the best predictor of that for future seasons is past performance.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 29, 2019 10:36:09 GMT -5
I guess the issue is "well above .300" leaves a lot of wiggle room, right? Like if he's a .322 BABIP guy (as you suggest based on STEAMER) rather than a .347 then he's hitting .239/.309/.429 which probably doesn't cut it. He's at 0.8 WAR, so that's 14 points of OBP that he can't afford to lose. He also turned 24 just two weeks ago, so I'm not going to say he's topped out, but I can see the skepticism some have.
Will Middlebrooks had a .256 OBP from 2013 to 2017, so I don't think that was a fair comparison either. There's some similarity in that a very-early extremely hot stretch made his rookie numbers seem better than they were and fueled a bit of hype, and they both came in helping the team move on a breaking down veteran the team should've been more prepared to move on from in the first place (Youkilis and Pedroia), so I see the narrative similarities. But Chavis is the much better hitter.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2019 14:20:01 GMT -5
By month OPS; April 1.061, May .788, June .730, July .786, and August .456 only 11 games got injured. He hit .271 .329 .457 .786 while striking out a third of the time in July. He also had a .407 BABIP in July and .372 in August, without the Statcast data to match. This is the post that kept the 'argument' going. If you think that's normal and sustainable for a guy who stopped hitting for power almost completely, I'm not sure what to tell you.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 29, 2019 16:31:51 GMT -5
You guys get Chavis went 0-13 after injuring his shoulder making that great catch right? The injury that landed him on the disabled list because Cora said it was messing up his swing. He was at .263 .331 .460 .790 before the injury. It's why his August numbers are so horrible and what is helping to drag down his numbers that Chris was using. It's why I listed his very respectable July numbers.
As to his age, he doesn't have the reps most guys his age do. Injuries and suspension limited him to 60 games in AAA and 10 of those are rehab games recently and what 90 games in AA. So I see no reason why he can't improve. He hasn't spent 2-3 years in AAA showing no improvement.
When did Chavis's power disappear? The only month that happened is in August when he got injured and his numbers tanked, went from .790 to .766 OPS in four games he was injured. Like his slugging percentage was .625, .457, .426, .457 through July. We are talking about a guy playing second base. He hit 3, 7, 4, and 3 HRs in April through July.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2019 16:46:53 GMT -5
Chavis is only going to be in the majors if he hits for power. He isn't good enough at anything else to carry him. Slugging percentage is affected by BABIP. ISO isolates his power for the most part. A bad K-rate and mediocre ISO isn't hidden by fortunate BABIP. Further, his season long ISO of .190 is ranked 113th of 191 players with 350 or more PAs. If you take out his absurd April, he's been just plain bad. He's been below replacement level since April.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 30, 2019 9:03:06 GMT -5
The only thing killing his ISO is four games while he was injured. I can't believe everyone wants to slam and judge him when it's an injury. For example his ISO was .197 before the injury, tied for 83rd and only four 2nd basemen had a higher mark. While Chavis isn't going to likely post a .313 ISO if he played a full month. It isn't crazy for a guy like him to have a 10 game stretch like that either. Saying a guys power disappeared when he had a .186 ISO in July is crazy talk for a 2nd Basemen.
List I'm looking at ranks a .190 ISO currently 93rd in Baseball. There are what 255 positional players playing at all times counting the DHs.
I really don't get wanting to wait till a guy gets injured, goes 0-13 then let's start rolling out the numbers and claiming he's bad and almost unplayable. It's like the anti Eric move, claiming Brasier is back after 6 and 1/3 innings. Adjust his BAbip numbers like James did before the Injury and he's at .776 OPS. Which is likely an above average 100 OPS+, he's at 95 with an .766 OPS right now.
Overall I'm rather happy with Chavis. Learning to play 2nd Base on the fly and playing it rather well. Has been good at 1B also. The bat is frankly about what I expected. Strikeouts are an issue, but no huge surprise there. Yet he's shown the ability to get more walks at times also. He knows his issue and claims it's the first time he's ever had that happen. He really struggles against the elite strikeout and walk guys top third, yet given most are bullpen guys you don't face a ton of those guys overall. He has killed the other pitchers he's faced. Just the little improvements most players make and he looks like a very good young player, replacement level type 1.7 to 1.8 bwar or whatever it currently is. If he can really adjust to those elite strikeout guys he could be a darn good player at 2nd Base with that bat and slightly above average D. Playing at 2nd Base changes everything, the bar is a lot lower than at 1B and DH. I'm rather excited and yet there's talk he might be unplayable because his numbers tanked while injured.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 9:09:37 GMT -5
If he has been injured since April, you'd have a point. A power hitter with a 35%+ k-rate who has an MLB average ISO, doesn't walk enough, isn't fast or great defensively isn't an MLB player. He need to both decrease his k-rate, increase his BB rate and increase his power. He's not going to get by relying on BABIP luck.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2019 9:11:11 GMT -5
I guess another part of the issue with Chavis, and evaluating players in general, is that a .180 Iso isn't particularly good in 2019. It's not *bad* by any means, but it's not enough if power is your best carrying tool.
The other thing with Chavis is that he's hit well for a second baseman and not well enough for a first baseman and I think there are disparate views on whether he's a real-life second baseman.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 30, 2019 9:35:55 GMT -5
If you're a big statcast guy, it ranks Chavis as great in sprint time.
It's limited data so it means rather little long-term, yet both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs rate Chavis rather well at 2b, slightly below average and then slightly above average. Average it out and he's been average at a position he just learned on the fly. We aren't encouraged by his play at 2B?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2019 9:43:27 GMT -5
I'm actually cautiously optimistic on him as a 2B. I kinda wish he'd been playing there longer, particularly considering how unimpressed I was with him at third.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 30, 2019 9:45:29 GMT -5
I guess another part of the issue with Chavis, and evaluating players in general, is that a .180 Iso isn't particularly good in 2019. It's not *bad* by any means, but it's not enough if power is your best carrying tool. The other thing with Chavis is that he's hit well for a second baseman and not well enough for a first baseman and I think there are disparate views on whether he's a real-life second baseman. All of this is true and it's also true you can't assume he'll improve with more time, but honestly, he's a guy who merits more playing time before making a huge determination on him one way or another. It's not hard to see Chavis next year hitting .230 and being a HR or nothing kind of guy. It's also not hard to see Chavis upping the BA a little bit, taking a few more walks and cutting down on strikeouts, especially if he does figure out his issues with hitting the high fastball. It's not hard to see a scenario where a guy who works hard like Chavis figures out through more repetition when to lay off and in his own words not to get in his own way mentally. But you can't count on it, so you're left with a coin flip. You can't really pronounce that Chavis is going to bust out nor can you pronounce that he won't be able to figure it out either. There are plenty of guys who figure it out as they go and plenty that fall by the wayside. I think a guy like Trot Nixon would struggle when he'd advance a level and then figure it out the next year. Perhaps Chavis is one of those guys. I know, that with what he's making, and where the Sox are budget-wise, he definitely deserves a longer leash.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 9:53:49 GMT -5
If you're a big statcast guy, it ranks Chavis as great in sprint time. It's limited data so it means rather little long-term, yet both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs rate Chavis rather well at 2b, slightly below average and then slightly above average. Average it out and he's been average at a position he just learned on the fly. We aren't encouraged by his play at 2B? I'm thrilled that he's not a disaster at 2B. But then I see average Brock Holt turning double plays and Chavis makes him look like a gold glover.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2019 10:16:24 GMT -5
Chavis brings some versatility and he’s cheap. I don’t think his trade value is high enough to outweigh those 2 factors, so I think you keep him around, even if you don’t pencil him in as an every day starter. Hopefully he can find his power stroke again and cut down on Ks in his sophomore campaign.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2019 10:21:44 GMT -5
If you're a big statcast guy, it ranks Chavis as great in sprint time. It's limited data so it means rather little long-term, yet both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs rate Chavis rather well at 2b, slightly below average and then slightly above average. Average it out and he's been average at a position he just learned on the fly. We aren't encouraged by his play at 2B? I'm thrilled that he's not a disaster at 2B. But then I see average Brock Holt turning double plays and Chavis makes him look like a gold glover. Sure, but his first game there as a pro was on April 7th of this year. He's obviously going to be far, far behind the guys who have been doing it consistently, especially stuff like footwork and the pivot. He's got some natural tools for the position.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 11:24:03 GMT -5
I'm thrilled that he's not a disaster at 2B. But then I see average Brock Holt turning double plays and Chavis makes him look like a gold glover. Sure, but his first game there as a pro was on April 7th of this year. He's obviously going to be far, far behind the guys who have been doing it consistently, especially stuff like footwork and the pivot. He's got some natural tools for the position. I don't hold it against him at all. I just don't think it can carry him as an MLB player. I also think his defensive ability is a little overstated so far.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 30, 2019 11:35:36 GMT -5
Sure, but his first game there as a pro was on April 7th of this year. He's obviously going to be far, far behind the guys who have been doing it consistently, especially stuff like footwork and the pivot. He's got some natural tools for the position. I don't hold it against him at all. I just don't think it can carry him as an MLB player. I also think his defensive ability is a little overstated so far. All of your comments are holding it against him. Chavis has been as good this year as we could have hoped. Hitting well enough while showing power and drawing walks while learning 2 new positions where he's been adequate so far. I don't know how anyone can be down on him. He strikes out too much and isn't a Gold Glover, but these are things we knew. The Red Sox shouldn't hand him a starting job next year but I'm optimistic that he can carve out a large role playing multiple positions and hitting for power as he adjusts to MLB competition. Chavis/Hernandez at 2b going forward seems pretty solid.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 12:55:55 GMT -5
I don't hold it against him at all. I just don't think it can carry him as an MLB player. I also think his defensive ability is a little overstated so far. All of your comments are holding it against him. Chavis has been as good this year as we could have hoped. Hitting well enough while showing power and drawing walks while learning 2 new positions that he's be an adequate at so far. I don't know how anyone can be down on him. He strikes out too much and isn't a hold Glover, but these are things we knew. The Red Sox shouldn't hand him a starting job next year but I'm optimistic that he can carve out a large role playing multiple positions and hitting for power as he adjusts to MLB competition. Chavis/Hernandez at 2b going forward seems pretty solid. The only thing I'm holding against Chavis defensively is that he's not going to be in the majors only because of his glove. He had a 213 wRC+ in his first 14 games, and then a 74 for the rest of the season. He has not made the necessary adjustments to be counted on. On that, we agree. He has been below replacement level outside of his first few weeks in the majors. I've been waiting for his adjustments all season and they haven't come. That is not something to be optimistic about, but I'll be glad to abandon this argument whenever it deserves to be.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 30, 2019 16:53:47 GMT -5
Jimed do you believe that an injured player trying to play through the injury should be held against him? That is exactly what you keep doing. wRC+ by month 174, 101, 86, 99, and 12. Like you only get 74 because of the injury that tanked his August numbers.
Saying he hasn't adjusted means what his league average July is nothing? Add a league average bat, average D, and much better than expected speed, you have a nice player even with him striking out a lot. He cut his strikeouts rate a ton and increased his walks slightly from June. In July he had the highest hard hit rate of any month and his second highest average from those limited games in April. If you wanted improvements from his cold second half of March and June, he did that in July. That's what going by month shows you, rather than using only two data points. Are we disappointed because he hasn't adjusted to be a monster bat? I see a k rate go from almost 40% to 31% and that's improvement, while increasing his walks.
Have we every used so many stats to slam a top prospect on this site before? Like what other stats can we use to show he sucks while injured in August? Maybe I should wait for his next hot streak and then start proclaiming how great he is. This has gotten crazy.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 17:05:28 GMT -5
I'm not sure how many times I have to say this? He was only league average in July because of a .372 BABIP after a .407 in June. He was not hitting the ball hard in those months. When you're not hitting the ball hard, you are getting lucky with that high of a BABIP. So that league average hitting, would not ever remain league average if nothing else changed but regression to a normal BABIP. He had a below average ISO in those two months and power is his calling card.
I don't hate the guy and do really hope that he turns it around and starts hitting fastballs while not giving up his power. But he hasn't done it yet, not even close. When he does it, I'll be his biggest cheerleader. And if he doesn't do it, I won't gloat about it either, unlike others here when they're right about something negative about the Red Sox.
Talking about how he's increasing his walks as the season went on is pretty ridiculous and pretty much counts on one intentional walk in July which makes it look like he microscopically increased his walk rate.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 30, 2019 17:15:57 GMT -5
This isn't just a small hole in his swing. This is just for fastballs, which pretty much every major league pitcher can throw.
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