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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 30, 2019 19:18:35 GMT -5
Chavis is young, has missed a half year of development and is not a finished product. What did saint Xander hit in his first full year? Yup I think Xander is very talented bat to ball...more than Chavis has in his DNA. But I think that Chavis will make some adjustments like most rookies do. How much and how well is to be determined. He has trouble both with off-speed away and high strike zone velocity. But, he will read his notes, study video, perhaps alter his swing path or shorten the stroke. He will improve. Sandy Leon he isn't.
I thought that his defense at second was surprisingly good.
As others have noted, with a bloated payroll, a developing and reasonably talented guy is gold.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 30, 2019 22:41:42 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier · 1h Michael Chavis, after hitting two homers in Game 1 of a doubleheader for Pawtucket, was scratched prior to Game 2 due to soreness in his right side.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 2:41:13 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier · 1h Michael Chavis, after hitting two homers in Game 1 of a doubleheader for Pawtucket, was scratched prior to Game 2 due to soreness in his right side. Durability is the number one concern I have with Michael Chavis in his future here. Not the holes in his swing or whatever. He just can't stay healthy thorughout a whole season and has never done it before.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 31, 2019 7:19:00 GMT -5
I'm not sure how many times I have to say this? He was only league average in July because of a .372 BABIP after a .407 in June. He was not hitting the ball hard in those months. When you're not hitting the ball hard, you are getting lucky with that high of a BABIP. So that league average hitting, would not ever remain league average if nothing else changed but regression to a normal BABIP. He had a below average ISO in those two months and power is his calling card. I don't hate the guy and do really hope that he turns it around and starts hitting fastballs while not giving up his power. But he hasn't done it yet, not even close. When he does it, I'll be his biggest cheerleader. And if he doesn't do it, I won't gloat about it either, unlike others here when they're right about something negative about the Red Sox. Talking about how he's increasing his walks as the season went on is pretty ridiculous and pretty much counts on one intentional walk in July which makes it look like he microscopically increased his walk rate. What do you consider hitting the ball hard? Like what is Jimed definition? He had a well above average hard hit percentage in July. You keep talking about hitting the ball hard, like that's the only thing that that can give a guy a good BAbip, which is total BS. Like for one second step back act like statcast isn't an end all. It's been proven when looking at the BAbip that there isn't just one thing that makes hitters or pitchers exceed an average BAbip. The guy has been well over .300 for a long time and yet statcast based on his average has him below .300. I feel like pulling an Eric and saying the difference is do big it actually is meaningful in how crazy statcast numbers are. Like what is the percentage of certainty of statcasts data? They don't include so many variables that can effect hits that it has to be rather high. Now I don't have the data to prove this, maybe if I have time I'll look it up if I can find it. Yet Chavis splits when looking at strikeout and walks pitchers ranked kinda tells the story. He's horrible against the elites top 1\3, very good against the average and kills the bottom third. Which makes sense given Chavis issues. The elite guys have the stuff and control to pinpoint his cold areas and not make mistakes. He has horrible BAbip numbers against these guys and I would expect very poor hard hit percentages. Yet the next two groups he has very good BAbip numbers and I'd expect he hits these guys very hard. So isn't it possible that his slightly below average hard hit percentage is highly misleading? In that it's crazy low against one group and very high against the other two? The continuing talk of Chavis not hitting the ball hard is kinda crazy for a guy with massive HRs. He can certainly hit the ball very hard and has, it's the averages that you are using. Like with his injury and August numbers added into his other numbers it makes his averages not tell close to the true story. Statcast data is useful, but it should be used to question what's going on with a player and dig deeper to see what's going on, not as an end all stat when projections, past and current production don't match up. So what's up next rolling out the numbers for Bogaerts, Dever's, Benintendi, Hernandez, Holt and Vazquez because they are all greatly overachieving per statcast.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 31, 2019 10:58:05 GMT -5
So what's up next rolling out the numbers for Bogaerts, Dever's, Benintendi, Hernandez, Holt and Vazquez because they are all greatly overachieving per statcast. Those guys are all probably overachieving. The difference is that Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and Vazquez are all still good-to-great players when their numbers normalize, while Chavis is a fringe major leaguer unless he makes additional adjustments.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 31, 2019 11:23:20 GMT -5
So what's up next rolling out the numbers for Bogaerts, Dever's, Benintendi, Hernandez, Holt and Vazquez because they are all greatly overachieving per statcast. Those guys are all probably overachieving. The difference is that Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and Vazquez are all still good-to-great players when their numbers normalize, while Chavis is a fringe major leaguer unless he makes additional adjustments. I really have no stake in this argument, but mentioning Vazquez as the "good-to-great players" is a bit of a reach. He's had one good season so far, his first time with a wRC+ over 92. If that is the bar Chavis has to clear, I'd put money on him doing it, if I was a betting man.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 31, 2019 11:36:27 GMT -5
So what's up next rolling out the numbers for Bogaerts, Dever's, Benintendi, Hernandez, Holt and Vazquez because they are all greatly overachieving per statcast. Those guys are all probably overachieving. The difference is that Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and Vazquez are all still good-to-great players when their numbers normalize, while Chavis is a fringe major leaguer unless he makes additional adjustments. Vazquez was a terrible player in 2018 when his BABIP numbers went the complete opposite way last year. I don't even know what to make of his spike homerun surge, especially since what we know about the baseball already.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 31, 2019 11:55:31 GMT -5
Those guys are all probably overachieving. The difference is that Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, and Vazquez are all still good-to-great players when their numbers normalize, while Chavis is a fringe major leaguer unless he makes additional adjustments. I really have no stake in this argument, but mentioning Vazquez as the "good-to-great players" is a bit of a reach. He's had one good season so far, his first time with a wRC+ over 92. If that is the bar Chavis has to clear, I'd put money on him doing it, if I was a betting man. But that's not the bar Chavis has to clear, because Vazquez is a good defensive catcher and Chavis is probably a below-average defensive 2B or a 1B.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 31, 2019 13:30:18 GMT -5
I really have no stake in this argument, but mentioning Vazquez as the "good-to-great players" is a bit of a reach. He's had one good season so far, his first time with a wRC+ over 92. If that is the bar Chavis has to clear, I'd put money on him doing it, if I was a betting man. But that's not the bar Chavis has to clear, because Vazquez is a good defensive catcher and Chavis is probably a below-average defensive 2B or a 1B. IMO too early to tell. Chavis, not fully baked in the minors, was brought prematurely to the majors. Not because he was ready, but because he was seriously needed to fill in for not one but four injured 2B (which he did, for just 43G) and then two injured 1B (for just 40 games), positions he had almost no experience playing. SSS in spades. At this point, to say this young, still inexperienced rookie is “probably a below average defender” at 2B just isn’t fair. He was competent at 1B and showed he has ceiling remaining, despite possibly not really having the bat or reach for it. But with Dalbec, Ockimey and Casas claiming 1B, who cares as that is not his future except as a backup. He was ~average at 2B, better than any of us expected, and showed real promise on a number of plays. Would he be seen as below average if he had come up at 2B rather than 3B? Maybe not. The bar for Chavis at 2B might be simply to improve at 2B with the reps he never got, while closing legit holes while improving his BA and OBP. If he does, he more likely has the ceiling of an average to good defender who, because he is a baseball rat and hard working true student of the game, may become steady, consistent at the keystone, making few mistakes. That is real balue. Add a possibly above average bat for 2B (like CV is at C) and that’s a winner. We would all enjoy watching him hit 20-30HR and 30-402B/3B, lengthening the lineup. For league minimum. In some sort of beneficial pairing with LHB Brockstar, Marco or Lin. I think such production and stability at 2B would be well worth taking a chance on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 1, 2019 16:03:56 GMT -5
I really have no stake in this argument, but mentioning Vazquez as the "good-to-great players" is a bit of a reach. He's had one good season so far, his first time with a wRC+ over 92. If that is the bar Chavis has to clear, I'd put money on him doing it, if I was a betting man. But that's not the bar Chavis has to clear, because Vazquez is a good defensive catcher and Chavis is probably a below-average defensive 2B or a 1B. Before he got injured Chavis had a higher OPS+ than Vazquez has ever had in a season. Even right now it's higher than Vazquez other seasons besides his current career year at 28. Like compare age 23 seasons, Chavis is miles a head of him. Before the injury he had the 4th highest ISO of all guys playing 2nd base. Also looking at those guys most got better. So much talk of Middlebrooks like that is the norm, but Chavis while some what similar is a lot better player. He has a much better track record. Chavis also looks more like a future average to above average defender, than a below average one. Hence really lowering the bar compared to other sluggers that suck at D. He's been average at 2b and above average at 1B, after barley playing those positions.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Sept 5, 2019 17:35:04 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 21, 2019 5:02:36 GMT -5
This is a interesting development and could signal where they're thinking about playing Chavis next year.
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Post by costpet on Sept 21, 2019 6:43:30 GMT -5
If it works out, they might be thinking of trading Benny. Or, a hedge if Betts is traded.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 21, 2019 9:59:56 GMT -5
If it works out, they might be thinking of trading Benny. Or, a hedge if Betts is traded. I don't understand why people keep trying to trade away Red Sox outfielders when the Red Sox have a severe lack of outfielders past the first three guys. That's why they're trying him in the OF. Trading away Benintendi off a down year in order to install an untested outfielder who strikes out about 35% of the time seems... unwise. If you look at the "super teams" right now, they're all about depth. That's what the value of Chavis is, or should be, to this organization, a guy who gives you a reasonable option at a bunch of positions, but isn't penciled in for any of them.
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Post by Addam603 on Sept 21, 2019 10:11:28 GMT -5
If it works out, they might be thinking of trading Benny. Or, a hedge if Betts is traded. I don't understand why people keep trying to trade away Red Sox outfielders when the Red Sox have a severe lack of outfielders past the first three guys. That's why they're trying him in the OF. Trading away Benintendi off a down year in order to install an untested outfielder who strikes out about 35% of the time seems... unwise. If you look at the "super teams" right now, they're all about depth. That's what the value of Chavis is, or should be, to this organization, a guy who gives you a reasonable option at a bunch of positions, but isn't penciled in for any of them. At this point, Chavis should not be relied on for a starting role at any position. He’s best utilized as a utility player that can step up if needed. If he goes into next season as a starter then the new GM is off to a bad start.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 21, 2019 16:16:18 GMT -5
I don't understand why people keep trying to trade away Red Sox outfielders when the Red Sox have a severe lack of outfielders past the first three guys. That's why they're trying him in the OF. Trading away Benintendi off a down year in order to install an untested outfielder who strikes out about 35% of the time seems... unwise. If you look at the "super teams" right now, they're all about depth. That's what the value of Chavis is, or should be, to this organization, a guy who gives you a reasonable option at a bunch of positions, but isn't penciled in for any of them. At this point, Chavis should not be relied on for a starting role at any position. He’s best utilized as a utility player that can step up if needed. If he goes into next season as a starter then the new GM is off to a bad start. If Chavis' best role is a utility sub, then the Sox should shop him around. They don't know how it's going to look in the outfield, and relying on him to give you value that way is risky. Nevermind the fact that he isn't durable to begin with.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 21, 2019 16:46:19 GMT -5
As much as I love Chavis' spirit and drive, I would shop this guy to see what potential value I could get, either as an individual or as the 2nd or 3rd guy in a big deal. He was one of the luckiest hitters in baseball this year and, while he may adjust, it was concerning to see him miss so often on fastballs. It can't hurt to look around and see if any other teams value him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 22, 2019 18:29:48 GMT -5
I've wanted them to get him reps in left field for a while now. That's great news.
Seems clear this is for more versatility. They wouldn't plan on trading one of the three starters to play him at a completely new position when he hasn't earned any sort of starting job yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2019 19:23:32 GMT -5
I've wanted them to get him reps in left field for a while now. That's great news. Seems clear this is for more versatility. They wouldn't plan on trading one of the three starters to play him at a completely new position when he hasn't earned any sort of starting job yet. It also says that they're not going to count on him to start at any position, which is also good news. I also have to go to the dmaineah craziness here and wonder if JDM is ever going to put on a 1B mitt. He might just be so immobile that he'd have the range of a tree stump like Papi at the end. I also saw that Marco Hernandez was going to play some LF in winter ball.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2019 21:27:10 GMT -5
I've wanted them to get him reps in left field for a while now. That's great news. Seems clear this is for more versatility. They wouldn't plan on trading one of the three starters to play him at a completely new position when he hasn't earned any sort of starting job yet. It also says that they're not going to count on him to start at any position, which is also good news. I also have to go to the dmaineah craziness here and wonder if JDM is ever going to put on a 1B mitt. He might just be so immobile that he'd have the range of a tree stump like Papi at the end. I also saw that Marco Hernandez was going to play some LF in winter ball. Let a thousand Brock Holts bloom I guess. I like the idea of rounding out the roster with a bunch of guys that have lots of flexibility. Much better than, say, using up two roster spots on a straight platoon at 1B and having no 4th outfielder.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2019 21:42:37 GMT -5
I've wanted them to get him reps in left field for a while now. That's great news. Seems clear this is for more versatility. They wouldn't plan on trading one of the three starters to play him at a completely new position when he hasn't earned any sort of starting job yet. It also says that they're not going to count on him to start at any position, which is also good news. I also have to go to the dmaineah craziness here and wonder if JDM is ever going to put on a 1B mitt. He might just be so immobile that he'd have the range of a tree stump like Papi at the end. I also saw that Marco Hernandez was going to play some LF in winter ball. I don't think it's unreasonable to try JDM at 1b. I think it was unreasonable to put him there in spring training of 2019 when you had Moreland, Pearce, and Chavis ahead of him on the depth chart. And it was also unreasonable to slap him in there without him working out all spring training as dmaineah was basically saying. And all things equal I'd still put Dalbec ahead of JDM at 1b if it came down to it.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2019 22:02:28 GMT -5
It also says that they're not going to count on him to start at any position, which is also good news. I also have to go to the dmaineah craziness here and wonder if JDM is ever going to put on a 1B mitt. He might just be so immobile that he'd have the range of a tree stump like Papi at the end. I also saw that Marco Hernandez was going to play some LF in winter ball. I don't think it's unreasonable to try JDM at 1b. I think it was unreasonable to put him there in spring training of 2019 when you had Moreland, Pearce, and Chavis ahead of him on the depth chart. And it was also unreasonable to slap him in there without him working out all spring training as dmaineah was basically saying. And all things equal I'd still put Dalbec ahead of JDM at 1b if it came down to it. It was more that I was hoping he could do less damage defensively at 1B if he really must get some time in the field to keep sharp. Even if it's just him platooning and playing 25% of the games at 1B. Oh and I agree about him not playing there before he's had awhile to get comfortable doing it and while there are better options on the team.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 23, 2019 7:10:11 GMT -5
At this point, Chavis should not be relied on for a starting role at any position. He’s best utilized as a utility player that can step up if needed. If he goes into next season as a starter then the new GM is off to a bad start. If Chavis' best role is a utility sub, then the Sox should shop him around. They don't know how it's going to look in the outfield, and relying on him to give you value that way is risky. Nevermind the fact that he isn't durable to begin with. But that's the point. It may be risky to think of him as a roving utility player, but if he shows he can do it, with the power he has it's worth the shot. And as a utility player you can better control his exposure and his workload, so that he can stay on the field when he IS needed.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 23, 2019 9:20:09 GMT -5
I think Chavis is going to be a very good super utility guy and getting some reps in the OF is a great idea. He is still young and has shown that he can barrel the ball when he has had the chance to play. Yes he has work to do but he isn't a finished product and has shown a good work ethic. He will improve a lot I think but just a little and he is a servicable, cheap player.
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Post by ramireja on Mar 17, 2020 23:35:03 GMT -5
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