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Post by brendan98 on Aug 1, 2017 13:33:17 GMT -5
I think you can see from Chavis and benintendi's triple slash lines the difference - benintendi had a super advanced approach at the plate, high walk rates and an all-fields approach, while Chavis seems to still be developing a more mature approach. His walk rate is still relatively low, and by the sound of the recent scouting scratch is also a little pull heavy. Beyond all that, benintendi was always reported as having a plus hit tool and made a ton of contact, while Chavis doesn't fit that profile at all. Seems like he'll play out the year in Portland and, assuming AA pitchers don't figure him out, maybe start next year in Pawtucket. There shouldn't be any rush to get him to Boston - he needs to refine the approach, find a defensive home one way or another and he's actually pretty young to be doing what he's doing in AA right now, besides which id be pretty surprised if he could improve the big league team this year So while I wouldn’t categorize anything you’ve said here as wrong, I will play Devil’s Advocate and explain why I don’t necessarily agree. You talk about Benintendi’s “super advanced approach” and reference high walk rates, and also mention that Benintendi has a plus hit tool and makes tons of contact, while Chavis doesn’t fit that profile. Well, I agree with all of that, but I will argue with you that Benintendi and Chavis are different hitters, and what demonstrates an advanced approach for Benintendi isn’t necessarily what you look for in an advanced approach from Chavis. If I’m Michael Chavis, or better yet Chavis’ hitting coach, I’m not jacked about drawing a walk, yes I want to take a walk if the pitcher isn’t willing to give me something to hit, but my game is about hitting for power, XBH’s, and my approach should reflect that, I want to approach an at bat in a way that gets me a pitch I can drive, if I’ve done that 2 or 3 times in a game, I like my chances of getting a couple XBH’s and knocking in guys that are on base. To me, what demonstrates a good approach by Chavis isn’t walk rate but rather SLG% and K rate. Chavis SLG% speaks for itself, and his K rate is hovering around 20% over 2 levels, higher than a guy like Benintendi, but power guys in general strikeout more because they are less about contact and more about power. Take Benintendi and Chavis in the same at bat, they both work a 3-1 count, who is more likely to take a pitch in that situation? Chavis is looking to hit a ball to the fence, or over it, he has gotten to a hitters count and he is looking for something he can drive, I’m not going to say Benintendi isn’t looking to hit in that situation, but he is definitely more willing to take a pitch there and see if he can draw a walk.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 1, 2017 13:40:12 GMT -5
What I find encouraging about Chavis is that he seems to be adjusting well to AA, but even before he started hitting for average the power was there on day one.
Is he a guy again? In my professional opinion, he is. Full disclaimer....I know nothing.
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Post by jdb on Aug 1, 2017 14:19:27 GMT -5
I think I'd let him finish the year in AA with a trip to the AZL then start him in AAA.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 1, 2017 14:34:06 GMT -5
Chavis needs to be healthy enough to take a kajillion ground balls at 3b every day next year, just like Boggs and Youkilis and other guys with borderline defensive skills who made themselves into major leaguers.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2017 14:49:19 GMT -5
If Chavis makes the ML roster by the middle of next year, I bet it will be as mainly a DH with the ability to also play 3B and 1B in a pinch and this would be because his bat never slowed down. I don't see playing him at 1B as anything other than just in case right now. And if they move him to LF, he'll need longer to be playable there, so I wouldn't expect him until 2019 if he's going to switch positions. He's still really young and this is a guy they should absolutely not rush. This isn't Mookie.
I'd also leave him in AA for the rest of the year to work with Febles on his defense.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Aug 1, 2017 15:00:28 GMT -5
Chavis is swinging and missing 33% more than Devers, 52% more than Longhi did. This stretch is nice, but I think pumping breaks is a good idea. Obviously huge question marks about his game.
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 1, 2017 15:06:57 GMT -5
Chavis is swinging and missing 33% more than Devers, 52% more than Longhi did. This stretch is nice, but I think pumping breaks is a good idea. Obviously huge question marks about his game. Will Middlebrooks says hi.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 1, 2017 15:32:52 GMT -5
Chavis is swinging and missing 33% more than Devers, 52% more than Longhi did. This stretch is nice, but I think pumping breaks is a good idea. Obviously huge question marks about his game. Will Middlebrooks says hi. Middlebrooks was also one of the most over hyped prospects within the sox own fan base. he had no idea of the strike zone and couldn't hit anything off speed while in the minors unless it was hanging in the middle of the plate. Only thing superior to Chavis at this stage is/was his glove.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 1, 2017 15:36:10 GMT -5
I think I'd let him finish the year in AA with a trip to the AZL then start him in AAA. So just as a quick, nitpicky point of information: "AZL" usually refers to the Arizona League, the Rookie ball league that's the same level of play as the GCL. The Arizona Fall League is referred to as the AFL. Not something that really matters here because the Sox don't have an Arizona Lg affiliate, but just so it doesn't get you into trouble elsewhere.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 1, 2017 16:17:33 GMT -5
They should not and almost certainly will not promote Chavis. He's essentially been good in Double-A for two weeks. He was at .240/.275/.440 on July 15. There's no need to rush him. There's also the whole defense thing. He also doesn't need to be added to the 40-man this offseason and it's not a situation like Moncada where he's probably going to be ready by mid next season, so adding him to the 40, starting his service time clock, etc. isn't a huge deal. Keep in mind that Benintendi, Moncada, Betts, and even Devers were among the top couple of prospects in the game at the times we're comparing to here. Chavis is not, by any stretch. I figure he'll finish out the year in AA, go to the AFL, and then come in next year to compete for a spot in Pawtucket that he's by no means guaranteed. That said, I also wouldn't have thought Ockimey would get promoted to Salem, so who knows? As for first base, to me that makes more sense as a versatility thing than as hoping he'll come up and take over the starting job in a month. But who knows?I think another part of the equation may be the front office knowing whether Chavis has the potential to play 1b down the line as they will have a vacancy at the 1b position after this season and will have another vacancy at the DH/1b position in 1-2 years, so if they really like Chavis' bat it may affect whether they focus more on short term or long term solutions in free agency.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2017 17:39:07 GMT -5
They should not and almost certainly will not promote Chavis. He's essentially been good in Double-A for two weeks. He was at .240/.275/.440 on July 15. There's no need to rush him. There's also the whole defense thing. He also doesn't need to be added to the 40-man this offseason and it's not a situation like Moncada where he's probably going to be ready by mid next season, so adding him to the 40, starting his service time clock, etc. isn't a huge deal. Keep in mind that Benintendi, Moncada, Betts, and even Devers were among the top couple of prospects in the game at the times we're comparing to here. Chavis is not, by any stretch. I figure he'll finish out the year in AA, go to the AFL, and then come in next year to compete for a spot in Pawtucket that he's by no means guaranteed. That said, I also wouldn't have thought Ockimey would get promoted to Salem, so who knows? As for first base, to me that makes more sense as a versatility thing than as hoping he'll come up and take over the starting job in a month. But who knows?I think another part of the equation may be the front office knowing whether Chavis has the potential to play 1b down the line as they will have a vacancy at the 1b position after this season and will have another vacancy at the DH/1b position in 1-2 years, so if they really like Chavis' bat it may affect whether they focus more on short term or long term solutions in free agency. He's short and RH, though, so it's a bad match.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2017 17:39:49 GMT -5
I'm glad we kept Chavis. I don't know what he's going to become. I love that Slg. pct. Just a bit higher than Benny's 543 TO 515 in AA at roughly the same age. Chavis a touch younger 1mo. Dombrowski is obviously quick to pull the trigger on prospects he has a red-flag on or just doesn't project. Could be WMB, too early to tell. I'm not ready to count on him for anything yet. Like this article. But, if Hanley struggles in the first half next year, we could release him so that his vesting year doesn't kick in. Provided we have an adequate replacement. www.outsidepitchmlb.com/boston-red-sox-michael-chavis-dh-2018/73098
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2017 21:11:21 GMT -5
People are selling Chavis short on his hitting ability/selectivity. He's put up IsoDs in the range of .055-.070 everywhere he's played, even when he was struggling badly. It's not a 10% BB rate, but it's not Middlebrooks either. Chavis's performance in AA (another HR tonight and a triple slash of roughly .300/.350/.550) has been excellent, particularly after a slow first 30-40 PA. He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. His K rate has remained fairly stable, too...20-25% isn't particularly notable in today's game. That's pretty impressive stuff at 21. And, as noted, he's very different stylistically from Benintendi; I wouldn't read all that much into the difference in K/BB rates in terms of "advancement."
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 1, 2017 21:57:27 GMT -5
Chavis decreased his strikeouts and increased his walks while going from high A to AA. While still having great power. That's the type of thing you look for. His bat is for real and just what we needed. For me his ETA is mid next year.
Just like with Devers, his bat will force his way into the majors.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 1, 2017 22:10:23 GMT -5
Chavis decreased his strikeouts and increased his walks while going from high A to AA. While still having great power. That's the type of thing you look for. His bat is for real and just what we needed. For me his ETA is mid next year. Just like with Devers, his bat will force his way into the majors. Great point. If a player has a bat, teams will figure out how to get them in the lineup,
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2017 23:24:01 GMT -5
Chavis decreased his strikeouts and increased his walks while going from high A to AA. While still having great power. That's the type of thing you look for. His bat is for real and just what we needed. For me his ETA is mid next year. Just like with Devers, his bat will force his way into the majors. I kinda wonder if he gets a Sept callup. Probably not (service time), but then I wonder if a) he gets a AAA taste, and b) if he goes to the AFL, which is roughly AA-caliber. My inclination is to agree with you that he starts next year in AAA and gets a June call-up, provided he does more of what he's done in Portland. Also, I think the AA performance issue can't be understated. He's basically reached PA numbers where his GB/FB (less than 100 PA) and K/BB rates (less than 150 PA) can reasonably be expected to have stabilized. I don't read too much into the improvement A+ to AA, but that there's been no *worsening* is incredibly encouraging. AA is generally regarded as the "big jump" (other than AAA to MLB), so I think that it's fair to think that what we're seeing is the real Chavis. I agree 100%...if he continues on this path, his bat will force its way into MLB sooner rather than later. I get the "pull-approach" concerns, but guys like Cody Ross and (for the old-timers) Nick Esasky made it work. Chavis's LD rate seems pretty stable at around 18%, so his FB-heavy approach bodes well for Fenway. Sure, the topping grounders issue might pop up if he can't go with the outside pitch, but he's young enough that I like his chances of learning. And I love his power potential as a .270/.330/.550 RH hitter this team could really benefit from. With Devers looking wholly like the real deal, there's your future 4/5 hitters. Plus, that's a big cost savings once Hanley's deal is up. Might even let them keep Sale, presuming Price doesn't opt out.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 1, 2017 23:59:49 GMT -5
For what its worth, according to Fangraphs he was pulling a minor league career low 43.7% of the time in High-A this year. In AA, he's pulling a career high 52.8%, accompanied by a spike in fly balls (50%) and a dip in line drive rate (10.4%). 15.1% of those fly balls though are leaving the yard. While his line and approach numbers are great to see in AA, I think it would be preferable to see the batted ball profile he showed in Salem where he was using the whole field more and spraying line drives in addition to the HRs.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 2, 2017 1:07:11 GMT -5
For what its worth, according to Fangraphs he was pulling a minor league career low 43.7% of the time in High-A this year. In AA, he's pulling a career high 52.8%, accompanied by a spike in fly balls (50%) and a dip in line drive rate (10.4%). 15.1% of those fly balls though are leaving the yard. While his line and approach numbers are great to see in AA, I think it would be preferable to see the batted ball profile he showed in Salem where he was using the whole field more and spraying line drives in addition to the HRs. Absolutely. Then again, his LD rate in Salem was almost assuredly unsustainable. My guess is he's getting under it a bit more/barreling up less, but that it's probably a SSS variation. LD rate takes forever to stabilize, while GB/FB splits do so a lot more quickly. Be interesting if we knew his Z/O sw% and C%, and how well he's doing against breaking stuff. It's also possible that the shorter OF dimensions in Portland have him swinging a bit more for the fences. I agree though...his Salem batted-ball breakdown is astounding.
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2017 9:24:33 GMT -5
He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. No prospect in recent history has been a reasonable bet for a 1.000 OPS. Certainly not Michael Chavis. Let's be reasonable with our expectations here. If he's an .800 OPS player, he's a no doubt starter, and that's a much more reasonable optimistic projection of him.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 2, 2017 9:31:55 GMT -5
He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. No prospect in recent history has been a reasonable bet for a 1.000 OPS. Certainly not Michael Chavis. Let's be reasonable with our expectations here. If he's an .800 OPS player, he's a no doubt starter, and that's a much more reasonable optimistic projection of him. He's talking about his 2017 season ("Combined OPS" between A Advanced and AA)
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Post by jmei on Aug 2, 2017 9:35:41 GMT -5
I see-- comment withdrawn.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2017 9:59:25 GMT -5
For what its worth, according to Fangraphs he was pulling a minor league career low 43.7% of the time in High-A this year. In AA, he's pulling a career high 52.8%, accompanied by a spike in fly balls (50%) and a dip in line drive rate (10.4%). 15.1% of those fly balls though are leaving the yard. While his line and approach numbers are great to see in AA, I think it would be preferable to see the batted ball profile he showed in Salem where he was using the whole field more and spraying line drives in addition to the HRs. I noticed this as well, but a certain amount of the change in batted ball profile could be Portland's home scorer identifying a "line drive" versus a "fly ball" differently than how the Salem home scorer did on a well-hit ball in the air to the outfield. Salem's line drive percentages for players with at least 50 PA range from 18.8 to 33.3, whereas Portland's range from 10.9 to 28.9. Comparatively, the ground ball numbers are pretty close (30.9 to 60.6 in Salem versus 28.1 to 64.7 in Portland). That's certainly not a statistically sound way of looking at it, but there may be some kind of LD% discount that needs to be applied between the two levels. I doubt it accounts for the entire difference, but I would just be careful before putting too much credence into minor league BIP data, which I don't think is tied to Trackman or anything yet.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 2, 2017 12:09:05 GMT -5
People are selling Chavis short on his hitting ability/selectivity. He's put up IsoDs in the range of .055-.070 everywhere he's played, even when he was struggling badly. It's not a 10% BB rate, but it's not Middlebrooks either. Chavis's performance in AA (another HR tonight and a triple slash of roughly .300/.350/.550) has been excellent, particularly after a slow first 30-40 PA. He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. His K rate has remained fairly stable, too...20-25% isn't particularly notable in today's game. That's pretty impressive stuff at 21. And, as noted, he's very different stylistically from Benintendi; I wouldn't read all that much into the difference in K/BB rates in terms of "advancement." Sure he's a different hitter stylistically than benintendi, but so is devers and you wouldn't have the same concerns because you see him being selective and using the whole field. It's a combo effect - if the k/bb numbers weren't great but the reports said he was driving the ball to all fields I wouldn't really worry about the approach, but I'd be pretty wary on that front with a guy who's pull happy and not necessarily showing great discipline. I don't think there's anyway to spin the way Chavis has played this year to make it not very impressive and promising, but I think he likely needs to move slower than guys like benintendi and devers for those reasons, leaving aside the questions about where he plays long term defensively.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 2, 2017 13:43:06 GMT -5
From 108 stitches: The 26 homers by Chavis are the most in a single season for a Red Sox minor leaguer since 2011 when that Lavarnway guy (get it?) and Bryce Brentz hit 32 and 30, respectively. It will be fun to see how many Chavis can hit down the stretch. Also, its pretty crazy to think that Brentz had a 30 HR season in the minors......6 years ago.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 2, 2017 15:22:25 GMT -5
He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. No prospect in recent history has been a reasonable bet for a 1.000 OPS. Certainly not Michael Chavis. Let's be reasonable with our expectations here. If he's an .800 OPS player, he's a no doubt starter, and that's a much more reasonable optimistic projection of him. I'm talking about his stats for this year. Good grief. Edit: did you seriously think I would predict that as an MLB projection? Lol.
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