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Post by brendan98 on Aug 2, 2017 15:53:55 GMT -5
People are selling Chavis short on his hitting ability/selectivity. He's put up IsoDs in the range of .055-.070 everywhere he's played, even when he was struggling badly. It's not a 10% BB rate, but it's not Middlebrooks either. Chavis's performance in AA (another HR tonight and a triple slash of roughly .300/.350/.550) has been excellent, particularly after a slow first 30-40 PA. He's a reasonable bet for 35 HR/35 2b, and nearly a 1.000 combined OPS. His K rate has remained fairly stable, too...20-25% isn't particularly notable in today's game. That's pretty impressive stuff at 21. And, as noted, he's very different stylistically from Benintendi; I wouldn't read all that much into the difference in K/BB rates in terms of "advancement." Sure he's a different hitter stylistically than benintendi, but so is devers and you wouldn't have the same concerns because you see him being selective and using the whole field. It's a combo effect - if the k/bb numbers weren't great but the reports said he was driving the ball to all fields I wouldn't really worry about the approach, but I'd be pretty wary on that front with a guy who's pull happy and not necessarily showing great discipline. I don't think there's anyway to spin the way Chavis has played this year to make it not very impressive and promising, but I think he likely needs to move slower than guys like benintendi and devers for those reasons, leaving aside the questions about where he plays long term defensively. - Devers: 34 BB / 63 K in 86 minor league games - Chavis: 30 BB / 78 K in 95 minor league games So while Chavis’ K/BB numbers will never be confused with Kevin Youkilis, they really are really not that alarming for a guy with a power hitting profile, and honestly they are not that far off of Rafael Devers minor league numbers this year. As for being pull happy, I say that’s only a bad thing if you are selling out on the inside pitch and consistently out in front of offspeed and pitches away. One of the best hitting instructors I’ve ever known has a favorite phrase, he says “Millionaires are made on the inner half of the plate.” With Chavis I see a guy who is pulling the inside pitch when pitchers challenge him inside, and pulling the breaking ball out over the plate because of his bat speed, fastballs over the heart of the plate he is hitting from left center to straight away center and I’ve seen him hit a couple of outside pitches out of the park to the opposite field including one right down the RF line. I saw Chavis play a Doubleheader in April when he was with Salem in Frederick MD, I’m pretty certain he was 2 for 3 with a double in 1 game and 1 for 3 with a HR in the other, he hit his double in the gap, pulled his HR, and hit a line drive to RF for his single, it was textbook hitting the ball where it’s pitched. I’m a HS hitting coach, I don’t tell my hitters to pull the ball or hit the ball the other way, we simplify things and work on hitting the ball on the barrel of the bat, if that is where the focus is than they are likely to hit the ball where it is pitched. The video and live looks I’ve had of Chavis is a good reflection of that kind of philosophy, I don’t see him cheating on the inside pitch and looking bad on offspeed, rather I see a guy who stays back well enough to unload on breaking balls out over the plate, which he wouldn’t be able to do if he was selling out to pull the ball. I’d much rather see Chavis pulling pitches on the inner half of the plate than inside outing them, because if he inside outing them he is late, and if you are consistently late on the inside pitch you have much bigger problems than “being pull happy”. I don’t really think Chavis is ready for the big leagues yet, but a lot of people didn’t think Devers was ready when the Red Sox called him up either. What I do think is that his stats indicate that he could be ready for the big leagues (as did Devers’), and I think the Sox should consider promoting him to AAA and see what that looks like (if they promote Chavis to Pawtucket and he puts up a .300 / .350 / .600 triple slash for 2 weeks, how do you not bring him up to the big leagues) unlikely - certainly, impossible – I don’t think you can say that when you consider what he has done this year. The arguments that I’ve seen that Chavis isn’t ready, don’t hold water to me, his BB/K is not bad at all for a player with a power hitting profile, and unless you are watching Chavis every day and every at-bat you can’t say with any level of knowledge that he is too pull happy, I don’t care if all 26 of his HR’s were pulled, as long as he’s not struggling on pitches away what difference does it make.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 4, 2017 9:47:55 GMT -5
That's all very well and I don't have an issue with his power being exclusively to the pull side, but I believe his batted ball numbers were cited earlier in this thread, and what would concern me is him pulling the ball 45%+ of the time. That's not going to be sustainable at the major league level. I definitely don't think he can't improve in this area, I just suspect that if he were in the lineup tonight he'd be eaten alive, and we'd see a lot of swing and miss and a lot of weak grounders rolled over to the left side.
Every time we've seen one of these pull heavy, rawer approach guys come up it's a common theme - they struggle until they adjust their approach to use the whole field. Think about pedroia and bogaerts - they both struggled until they learned to use the opposite field. The reason why devers and benintendi have been able (so far) to adapt relatively quickly to big league pitching (in my opinion) is they have more of an up the middle/opposite field approach, along with strong plate discipline for the most part
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 4, 2017 10:07:33 GMT -5
If you have evidence that Chavis struggles with pitches on the outside part of the plate, than I by all means agree with you, the fact that Chavis is pulling the ball over 45% of the time could mean lots of things, maybe he crowds the plate or likes to get his arms extended and is capable of pulling more pitches than most batters, maybe pitchers are attacking him inside or throwing him lots of breaking balls out over the plate, maybe he has an advanced approach and has been working the count to get a pitch that he can drive (pull). Again, I don’t care if he pulls every pitch, as long as he doesn’t have a weakness that is being or can be exploited. Maybe he does struggle with the outside pitch, I’ve only seen a handful of his at-bats in person, and highlight videos that are mostly home run swings, but does anyone have any evidence that he is vulnerable at a certain location, which honestly really isn’t necessarily that significant of a factor anyhow as anyone whose seen Ted Williams batted ball chart knows (Williams documented that he had pitch locations in which he struggled and had batting averages in the .100’s), every batter has weaknesses (both with locations and certain types of pitches) what matters is if those weaknesses can be exploited consistently.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 4, 2017 10:10:14 GMT -5
Every time we've seen one of these pull heavy, rawer approach guys come up it's a common theme - they struggle until they adjust their approach to use the whole field. Think about pedroia and bogaerts - they both struggled until they learned to use the opposite field. The reason why devers and benintendi have been able (so far) to adapt relatively quickly to big league pitching (in my opinion) is they have more of an up the middle/opposite field approach, along with strong plate discipline for the most part Yeah, this is probably my biggest concern as well. Along with the no position aspect too. Chavis is still very high risk as a prospect, there's just no way around that, even if he's having a exceptional minor league season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 4, 2017 10:32:02 GMT -5
If you're constantly pulling the ball, then that is a weakness. Mookie Betts is arguably having his worst season because that's what he has been doing all year. Mookie is still one of the best pull hitters out there, but even he needs to go the other way every so often.
Even as I'm saying that, Chavis isn't a Mookie Betts. There isn't really many if any kind of players like Mookie, who can actually get away with pulling the ball and have a decent year. Not many, if any players can actually do that talent wise in the major leagues.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 4, 2017 11:00:14 GMT -5
If you're constantly pulling the ball, then that is a weakness. I disagree with this, if you are constantly pulling the ball that is not a weakness, but if all you can do is pull the ball than that is a weakness. Pulling the ball more than most hitters is only a weakness if Chavis can’t go the other way or is not good enough going the other way, by simply pointing out that Chavis pulls the ball a lot, you have not shown the Chavis has a weakness with hitting pitches the other way. My argument isn’t with what you are saying, but rather what you are using as evidence to support what you are saying: If over 45% of Steph Curry’s shots next year are 3 pointers, that does not prove that he is weak at shooting 2 pointers, show me that he shoots 25% on shots that are not 3 pointers and I’ll agree with you, but I’m not going to agree simply because he shoots a lot of 3 pointers.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 4, 2017 11:42:08 GMT -5
If you're constantly pulling the ball, then that is a weakness. I disagree with this, if you are constantly pulling the ball that is not a weakness, but if all you can do is pull the ball than that is a weakness. Pulling the ball more than most hitters is only a weakness if Chavis can’t go the other way or is not good enough going the other way, by simply pointing out that Chavis pulls the ball a lot, you have not shown the Chavis has a weakness with hitting pitches the other way. My argument isn’t with what you are saying, but rather what you are using as evidence to support what you are saying: If over 45% of Steph Curry’s shots next year are 3 pointers, that does not prove that he is weak at shooting 2 pointers, show me that he shoots 25% on shots that are not 3 pointers and I’ll agree with you, but I’m not going to agree simply because he shoots a lot of 3 pointers. That comparison doesn't hold up at all though - if Chavis can't avoid pulling the ball consistently, he's never going to hit for average, because shifts will take away a lot balls that might otherwise be hits, whereas if a team tries to smother steph curry 10 feet beyond the arc, they will be exposed because he's a well rounded basketball player, and he adjusts to what the defense is doing. Setting that aside, I can see what you're saying, but I think in this case you can't regard being that pull heavy as not being a weakness in his approach. If you pull the ball ~50% of the time, you'll lose hits to defensive postioning, but you also essentially have to give up one half of the plate to big league pitching - if you crowd it so you can pull outside pitches hard, how are you going to handle major league fastballs well located on the inner half? If you stand deep in the box, how are you supposed to reach the offspeed stuff low and away that's always the first line of attack when rookies come up? Again, none of this means I'm not impressed by the season he's had or that it's a fluke in some way - I just think it's highly unlikely he could hold his own offensively in the majors right now even if he were a viable defensive option anywhere. I also doubt you can find many hitters who have much success beyond an Adam Dunn type of guy with pull rates that high, and I hope that Chavis has a good enough hit tool that we wouldn't be looking at 200 ks a year and a Mendoza line average from him
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 4, 2017 12:03:53 GMT -5
I disagree with this, if you are constantly pulling the ball that is not a weakness, but if all you can do is pull the ball than that is a weakness. Pulling the ball more than most hitters is only a weakness if Chavis can’t go the other way or is not good enough going the other way, by simply pointing out that Chavis pulls the ball a lot, you have not shown the Chavis has a weakness with hitting pitches the other way. My argument isn’t with what you are saying, but rather what you are using as evidence to support what you are saying: If over 45% of Steph Curry’s shots next year are 3 pointers, that does not prove that he is weak at shooting 2 pointers, show me that he shoots 25% on shots that are not 3 pointers and I’ll agree with you, but I’m not going to agree simply because he shoots a lot of 3 pointers. That comparison doesn't hold up at all though - if Chavis can't avoid pulling the ball consistently, he's never going to hit for average, because shifts will take away a lot balls that might otherwise be hits, whereas if a team tries to smother steph curry 10 feet beyond the arc, they will be exposed because he's a well rounded basketball player, and he adjusts to what the defense is doing. Setting that aside, I can see what you're saying, but I think in this case you can't regard being that pull heavy as not being a weakness in his approach. If you pull the ball ~50% of the time, you'll lose hits to defensive postioning, but you also essentially have to give up one half of the plate to big league pitching - if you crowd it so you can pull outside pitches hard, how are you going to handle major league fastballs well located on the inner half? If you stand deep in the box, how are you supposed to reach the offspeed stuff low and away that's always the first line of attack when rookies come up? Again, none of this means I'm not impressed by the season he's had or that it's a fluke in some way - I just think it's highly unlikely he could hold his own offensively in the majors right now even if he were a viable defensive option anywhere. I also doubt you can find many hitters who have much success beyond an Adam Dunn type of guy with pull rates that high, and I hope that Chavis has a good enough hit tool that we wouldn't be looking at 200 ks a year and a Mendoza line average from him This is just going around in circles, there is no evidence to say that a hitter with a pull heavy approach cannot have success in MLB, in fact plenty of pull hitters have. Could they have been better if they used the entire field? Probably, but maybe their power numbers would have decreased, maybe it was their choice to sacrifice some average for more power. I’m not saying that as a fact, just saying pull hitters can and are successful in MLB. I’m not someone who can go out and find a whole bunch of statistics that will show what Chavis is hitting on outside pitches vs inside pitches, maybe there is a way to get those stats or not, but based on Chavis’ stats that I do know how to access, I’m not ready to say that Chavis’ pull happy approach is a weakness, because he’s arguably the best hitter in the minor leagues bar none at the moment statistically, and I wonder how likely it is that he could perform at that level with a flaw that is going to keep him from being successful at the MLB level. If somebody would care to point me to some stats that show Chavis struggles hitting the ball the other way (not that he doesn’t do it as often, but actually struggles doing it) than I’ll agree 100% that it’s a problem for him, otherwise someone would have to extensively scout his at-bats to know with any certainty that his pull heavy approach is a weakness.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 4, 2017 12:16:33 GMT -5
It's pretty damn difficult to pull everything in today's game. The pitching is so good that a severe pull hitter will be pitched outside relentlessly and hit way too many ground balls into a shift. There are very few hitters that can pull 98 mph fastballs up and away or low and outside sliders into the air.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 4, 2017 13:12:49 GMT -5
I think people are missing Brendan's point. For example, if you look at the batted-ball and spray chart breakdown for Chavis, there's a fairly significant change across multiple parameters, from Salem to Portland. This includes an increase in GB/FB ratio and a drop in line drives. It also includes a huge drop in LD rate (from ludicrously high to very low). But his IFFB% has also dropped. *And his results are the same*, accompanied with a stable IsoD and a lower K rate.
What I think Brendan is saying is that those data may indicate a change in approach (AA pitchers are around the plate more, trust their breaking stuff and are in the zone with it more, are more likely to command the zone and "pitch," including working the inside with intent, etc.). Salem is also a very different park from Portland, with the latter having smaller dimensions and in particular a shorter LF porch. Chavis showed a *clear* use of all fields in Salem, but his pull rate has spiked in Portland. It's entirely possible that that is an intentional adjustment by him to get optimal results: e.g., swinging less at tough breaking stuff away or hard stuff up (lower K rate and lower IFFB rate) and rather selectively looking for pitches to drive with loft and power. It's not that he *cant* go the other way (because he did, to tremendous effect, in Salem), but that he's maximizing results based on park and opposing pitcher's plan. I can't say for sure, because I don't have eyes on him every day, but the final results are pretty clear. His batting line in AA is remarkably similar to Salem, despite clear changes in batted ball frequencies and pitch selectivity.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 4, 2017 18:38:20 GMT -5
I don't regard Chavis as blocked. There's a clear path for him to succeed Hanley as a regular DH, one who would back up the infield corners and maybe even play an adequate LF in Fenway.
The only reason teams rotate guys through DH to half-rest them is that there are no longer enough bat-first guys to play LF and DH. Sharing DH is not a first-choice strategy. We have a potential rare commodity in Chavis and we're in a position where we need to fill as many roster spots as possible with inexpensive talent in order to extend the young core.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 4, 2017 22:16:53 GMT -5
brendan/ telson / eric - great posts.
Brendan - I agree 100% with your philosophy. You pitch a guy with good power on the inside "in his "hot zone," you want that hitter to do what comes natural which means more than likely means - pull the ball.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 4, 2017 23:51:14 GMT -5
I don't regard Chavis as surplus either. I do believe in his bat. I believe he can be a .270ish hitter with plus power and he can DH or play 3b at times, and perhaps play 1b - we'll see about that, or he can play 2b if needed or even an OF corner if needed.
He's not a great defensive player, but he has enough flexibility that he can give other regulars turns at DH to get some rest.
This lineup could use a power hitter. I don't anticipate seeing Chavis in Boston until next June at the absolute earliest - more likely around Aug 1, 2018, but he can be a player the Red Sox get some good use out of. He could also be Sam Travis insurance if Travis struggles as well.
I think the Red Sox will probably try to stay under the luxury tax next season as well and then spend big if need be the offseason of 2018-2019.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 5, 2017 4:27:01 GMT -5
You guys are asking an awful lot of a young kid who has had one good year in the minors. I have gone from mild interest to strong about his possibilities. Is this his career year? Probably not? You start mixing in playing multi positions that will take time away from his bat and lots a time on trying to learn the new positions. Does he stay healthy? Definitely NOT being negative on him but I think we are rushing him to the bigs. He still is only 21. Still does not sound like he is a good defensive player. I can see a possible call up in late July.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 5, 2017 4:27:59 GMT -5
Chavis is late july next year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 5, 2017 15:59:42 GMT -5
I was curious ...
Based on wRC+, Chavis this year was easily the second best hitter in all of A+, minimum 200 PA, of any age. There were big gaps between #1 Brendan Rogers (196), Chavis (184), and everyone else (171, 167 ...). But Rogers has been ordinary in AA. You probably knew most of that.
There are 325 hitters in AA with 160 PA or more. Only 64 are 22 or younger, and Chavis ranks 6th in wRC+. He ranks 4th among the 22 guys who are 21 and younger.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 5, 2017 17:31:39 GMT -5
You guys are asking an awful lot of a young kid who has had one good year in the minors. I have gone from mild interest to strong about his possibilities. Is this his career year? Probably not? You start mixing in playing multi positions that will take time away from his bat and lots a time on trying to learn the new positions. Does he stay healthy? Definitely NOT being negative on him but I think we are rushing him to the bigs. He still is only 21. Still does not sound like he is a good defensive player. I can see a possible call up in late July. Its true that Chavis has only had 1 good year in the minors, but I do think he began his breakout last year, with a .992 OPS in April last year, but was derailed by injury...tearing a ligament in his thumb and then fracturing a finger after his return, and his hitting suffered trying to play through it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 9, 2017 3:08:47 GMT -5
Chavis power at Fenway, mid-2018. Brentz power at Fenway, April-2018. Devers power at Fenway, April-2018. Power problems solved, internally, 2018.
With Brentz, Chavis, Devers, (Erod, Wright, Smith, Thornburg, Barnes, Maddox et al), $$ problems for extensions to the core solved, 2018. No problems.
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Post by giatree12 on Aug 9, 2017 5:00:30 GMT -5
Chavis power at Fenway, mid-2018. Brentz power at Fenway, April-2018. Devers power at Fenway, April-2018. Power problems solved, internally, 2018. With Brentz, Chavis, Devers, (Erod, Wright, Smith, Thornburg, Barnes, Maddox et al), $$ problems for extensions to the core solved, 2018. No problems. Talk about best case scenario on many different levels
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 9, 2017 15:00:59 GMT -5
Chris and bunch of other poster keep harping that Chavis can't play 1B because he is short by 1B standards. Anyone care to explain why height is so important at first base?
You get a smaller target and a guy that might have a smaller catch zone when on the bag. Thing is a players wingspan would seem to matter just as much as height in a players catch zone while on the bag. A tall guy with T Rex arms and a short guy with a bigger wingspan could be equal. As could how athletic a player is to stretch while on the bag. A lot of that could be offset by great range at first and fielding. Overall 1B for a lot teams is where you play a guy that can't play anywhere else. Yet you want his bat in the lineup.
When I just keep hearing height as the reason and nothing else. It's like hearing Pedroia is to small to play full-time or Pedro is to small to be a starter.
It just seems his bat would determine if he could play 1B more than his size would.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2017 16:12:28 GMT -5
Chavis doesn't have a big wingspan either. He's sort of squat without being pudgey. Let's put it this way - when you see him, you see why some teams prior to the draft were considering him a candidate to move to catcher. I'm trying to find a good photo that shows this. Kelly doesn't really have one of him standing next to someone other than Febles. There's a Getty stock photo of him with Urrutia this year, but Urrutia's 6-5 so it's a pretty misleading photo (at least based on what I've found, but feel free to go to other websites to check on that). Maybe this one from the night of the draft? www.gettyimages.com/event/draft-494588255#commissioner-allan-h-bud-selig-announces-that-the-houston-astros-have-picture-id450130722 and www.gettyimages.com/event/draft-494588255#jake-gatewood-nick-gordon-grant-holmes-michael-chavis-kodi-medeiros-picture-id451129058 Still kind of misleading in that they're not standing the same distance from the camera (if you look at their feet, Chavis is standing behind all the other guys), but still, Holmes and Medeiros are 6-1 and 6-2, respectively, and he's clearly smaller. Remember when Nava was getting some work at first base and it was less than ideal? Chavis is smaller than him. I think it's an option as one of many positions you play him at, but I wouldn't want Chavis as my 150-games-a-year first baseman. EDIT: Oooh, maybe this shows it? www.greenvilleonline.com/picture-gallery/sports/baseball/greenville-drive/2016/04/07/greenville-drive-open-2016-season/82775716/
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2017 16:16:45 GMT -5
Chris and bunch of other poster keep harping that Chavis can't play 1B because he is short by 1B standards. Anyone care to explain why height is so important at first base? You get a smaller target and a guy that might have a smaller catch zone when on the bag. Thing is a players wingspan would seem to matter just as much as height in a players catch zone while on the bag. A tall guy with T Rex arms and a short guy with a bigger wingspan could be equal. As could how athletic a player is to stretch while on the bag. A lot of that could be offset by great range at first and fielding. Overall 1B for a lot teams is where you play a guy that can't play anywhere else. Yet you want his bat in the lineup. When I just keep hearing height as the reason and nothing else. It's like hearing Pedroia is to small to play full-time or Pedro is to small to be a starter. It just seems his bat would determine if he could play 1B more than his size would. Unless you have evidence that Chavis has longer arms than normal, I'll assume that they're average for his size. Because on average, people who are taller have a longer wingspan. Baseball isn't a sport that requires a larger wingspan like basketball or football, so there's not much of a reason to expect that without a reason. There is also no suggestion that he'd have great range at 1B, given that I have only ever read bad things about his defense at 3B. In the last month he has fewer errors, which says barely more than nothing to me. There are plenty of small 2B and Pedro is Pedro. If you want to assume that Chavis can be a good 1B with no reason to think so, go for it. There's a reason why 1B under 6' tall are pretty much unheard of.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 9, 2017 17:08:20 GMT -5
I get he doesn't look the part, but that hardly seems to be a great reason why he can't. 1B is all about Offense. Not many players Chavis size have his bat. Nava certainly didn't have a bat that you would want at 1B. He did have some nice stretches, but not overall. bleacherreport.com/articles/1228431-mlbs-25-best-power-hitters-ever-under-60-tallO Chavis power at his height is a huge outlier. The 25th best player under 6 feet has 256 HRs, though the top of the list has some great players. You have Dick Allen at #8 that played more games at 1B than anywhere else. So it has certainly been done before. If Chavis is raking again next year and 1B is open, I am playing him there. To get his bat into lineup. Then you can work long-term on where he plays. This is just my opinion.
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Post by patford on Aug 9, 2017 17:37:58 GMT -5
On the "Okimey" post I pointed out Steve Garvey who is 5' 10" won four consecutive Gold Gloves. Garvey to my eye also does not look like he has a long sleeve length on his dress shirts. Here's a thought. First basemen tend to be tall because it is considered the position for lumbering guys who can't play anywhere else. That sort of player tends to be tall. Is height a substantial advantage? It seems to me the height of the first baseman is a thrown ball to glove measure not a batsman to first measure. With a thrown baseball traveling to the first baseman at 85-90 mph what is the amount of time saved by the glove being six inches closer to the throw? As far as reach on errant throws. Is height absolutely an advantage? Would not reaction time and quickness make up for lack of height. The only thing which can answer the question as to whether or not Chavis can play 1B is seeing him there. He certainly is not going to be playing 3B for the Red Sox baring disaster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2017 17:39:17 GMT -5
If Chavis is going to be a seven-time or 10-time all-star, then yes, they can deal with him being short for the position. I do not think Chavis is going to be a seven-time or 10-time all-star. I also think it's worth noting that Allen and Garvey, the two first basemen on that list, came up at different positions and moved there.
Anyone subscribe to the BRef play index? I'd love to find out how many guys under 6 feet have played first base for a given number of games.
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