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4/25-4/27 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by telluricrook on Apr 27, 2017 20:37:38 GMT -5
He should have been done thru 8 down 1-0 WTF is wrong with this manager? I dunno, maybe he listened to this advice after Sale's last start: I would let Sale stay in if he wants to. Let him be the only one to blow it. It was only because they had a lead! Completely different situations! How can blow a lead that you dont have?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 27, 2017 20:40:38 GMT -5
Why would that make a difference?
Not a rhetorical question. The negative win expectancy of giving up a run when you have a one-run lead is much greater than when you're down by one run. So, if all else is equal, if you're going to use a starter for the ninth who is up you should absolutely use him with an identical line when you are down.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2017 20:43:54 GMT -5
Travis Shaw .278/.311/.571 5HRs in this young season. Small sample, sure, but bigger than Thornburg's.
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Post by telluricrook on Apr 27, 2017 20:44:26 GMT -5
Why would that make a difference? Not a rhetorical question. The negative win expectancy of giving up a run when you have a one-run lead is much greater than when you're down by one run. So, if all else is equal, if you're going to use a starter for the ninth who is up you should absolutely use him with an identical line when you are down. Thats my style and thats usually how everyone does it!
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Post by telluricrook on Apr 27, 2017 20:46:31 GMT -5
Sometimes you want to get a shutout also!
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Post by thursty on Apr 27, 2017 20:47:25 GMT -5
How much, David?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2017 21:09:49 GMT -5
Why would that make a difference? Not a rhetorical question. The negative win expectancy of giving up a run when you have a one-run lead is much greater than when you're down by one run. So, if all else is equal, if you're going to use a starter for the ninth who is up you should absolutely use him with an identical line when you are down. Agreed, but there are enough data to indicate that any pitcher facing the same line-up for a fourth time is a simgle game is an illadvise call by the manager that almost always end in the yielding of runs. If this manager hasn't learned that lesson by this point in his career, then his current level of employment should be subject to active notice or pending termination. The data are that clear cut. Now, there may be other mitigating factors - like right now this team can hit a barn door with a boat paddle - and maybe he's showing Sale, "see, the data say this isn't a good idea, but, just this time, I'm gonna let you prove me wrong..." But it is virtually always the wrong move, unless the pitcher has a no-no and 5+ run lead in the 9th. The pitcher may not like it, but the manager is there to make the buck (ball) stop there, and explain it all out and reach an agreement later.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 27, 2017 21:20:01 GMT -5
Chris Sale on a 4th-through-the-order penalty is better than every non-Kimbrel reliever on the roster though.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2017 21:23:33 GMT -5
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, when asked why #RedSox struggling to score runs: 'David (Ortiz) isn't here. We miss him.''
So there it is - I've been saying it since 2006:
This team is nothing without Big Papi.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Apr 27, 2017 21:30:32 GMT -5
Such a terrible job by Xander. From the team core, he's the last guy I want to extend: A slap hitter with a bit below avg defense. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, even very good sometimes but he's no Mookie or Benny or JBJ. When he'll lose range and have to be moved from SS, he'll be an avg player.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 27, 2017 21:35:31 GMT -5
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, when asked why #RedSox struggling to score runs: 'David (Ortiz) isn't here. We miss him.'' So there it is - I've been saying it since 2006: This team is nothing without Big Papi. It may be true.., but I am disappointed with this response from X. There are professional hitters on this team and they need to start acting like it.
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Post by telluricrook on Apr 27, 2017 21:36:01 GMT -5
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, when asked why #RedSox struggling to score runs: 'David (Ortiz) isn't here. We miss him.'' So there it is - I've been saying it since 2006: This team is nothing without Big Papi. This is the same guy who said the same thing when Chris Young went on the DL with the Hamstring. He is Clearly a little Baby!
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Post by thursty on Apr 27, 2017 21:46:46 GMT -5
Chris Sale on a 4th-through-the-order penalty is better than every non-Kimbrel reliever on the roster though. FTFY
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 27, 2017 22:25:06 GMT -5
It's still early, but....
This doesn't look like the juggernaut team that a lot of people anticipated.
The offense is wasting a dominant start by Chris Sale. It's criminal what they've done to this guy. They might as well have kept Moncada and Kopech for the future if the plan was to never score when Sale takes the mound.
It's apparent that David Price's contributions this season will be suspect and it's questionable if any of Wright, Porcello, or Rodriguez will step in and be that strong #3 starter.
I think the odds of it happening though are better than the odds of getting any meaningful contributions this season out of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg.
It's also questionable that the Red Sox are any better off at 3b this season then they've been any of the past 5 seasons.
It's not hard to imagine Dombrowski dealing Swihart and whoever has a big breakthrough in the minors (Josh Ockimey is a good candidate) for a right handed 8th inning reliever and a temporary 3b (perhaps Todd Frazier would be a target or even Moustakas).
Incidentally, the Yankees top two starters are pretty good. If the improvement by Severino is real, and I've always been high on him, pair him up with Tanaka who the Sox never hit, the Yankees have two very strong starters. The rest of the rotation is suspect but Chapman and Betances and the rest of the pen I think are better than the Sox. The Sox should be better than the Yanks but I don't think it's as head and shoulders above as others think.
Last year the Red Sox clearly underachieved. They should have played the Cubs in the Series last season they were that good. This season doesn't feel like underachievement, just a case of this is what they are. They're a good team as they'll hit better at some point and they'll play better at some point, but they're not some runaway 1st place team nor do they look like the class of the league.
Worse, they are a pretty boring team right now. They're a yawn on offense. With no David Ortiz ABs to look forward every game, there's no longer that mental calculation of how many guys can they get on if the game is close to get Ortiz up in a big spot. We were so spoiled to have watched Ortiz for all those years.
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Post by station13 on Apr 27, 2017 22:38:50 GMT -5
One or two runs each game should have Sale 4-0. This team is hard to watch.
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Post by p23w on Apr 27, 2017 22:42:58 GMT -5
It's still early, but.... This doesn't look like the juggernaut team that a lot of people anticipated. The offense is wasting a dominant start by Chris Sale. It's criminal what they've done to this guy. They might as well have kept Moncada and Kopech for the future if the plan was to never score when Sale takes the mound. It's apparent that David Price's contributions this season will be suspect and it's questionable if any of Wright, Porcello, or Rodriguez will step in and be that strong #3 starter. I think the odds of it happening though are better than the odds of getting any meaningful contributions this season out of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. It's also questionable that the Red Sox are any better off at 3b this season then they've been any of the past 5 seasons. It's not hard to imagine Dombrowski dealing Swihart and whoever has a big breakthrough in the minors (Josh Ockimey is a good candidate) for a right handed 8th inning reliever and a temporary 3b (perhaps Todd Frazier would be a target or even Moustakas). Incidentally, the Yankees top two starters are pretty good. If the improvement by Severino is real, and I've always been high on him, pair him up with Tanaka who the Sox never hit, the Yankees have two very strong starters. The rest of the rotation is suspect but Chapman and Betances and the rest of the pen I think are better than the Sox. The Sox should be better than the Yanks but I don't think it's as head and shoulders above as others think. Last year the Red Sox clearly underachieved. They should have played the Cubs in the Series last season they were that good. This season doesn't feel like underachievement, just a case of this is what they are. They're a good team as they'll hit better at some point and they'll play better at some point, but they're not some runaway 1st place team nor do they look like the class of the league. Worse, they are a pretty boring team right now. They're a yawn on offense. With no David Ortiz ABs to look forward every game, there's no longer that mental calculation of how many guys can they get on if the game is close to get Ortiz up in a big spot. We were so spoiled to have watched Ortiz for all those years.
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Post by p23w on Apr 27, 2017 22:50:57 GMT -5
As of April 25th the NYY's are a better team. Just the first leg of the marathon, but not a good omen. The offense needs someone to step up. I feel so bad for Sale.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2017 7:25:50 GMT -5
It's still early, but.... This doesn't look like the juggernaut team that a lot of people anticipated. The offense is wasting a dominant start by Chris Sale. It's criminal what they've done to this guy. They might as well have kept Moncada and Kopech for the future if the plan was to never score when Sale takes the mound. It's apparent that David Price's contributions this season will be suspect and it's questionable if any of Wright, Porcello, or Rodriguez will step in and be that strong #3 starter. I think the odds of it happening though are better than the odds of getting any meaningful contributions this season out of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. It's also questionable that the Red Sox are any better off at 3b this season then they've been any of the past 5 seasons. It's not hard to imagine Dombrowski dealing Swihart and whoever has a big breakthrough in the minors (Josh Ockimey is a good candidate) for a right handed 8th inning reliever and a temporary 3b (perhaps Todd Frazier would be a target or even Moustakas). Incidentally, the Yankees top two starters are pretty good. If the improvement by Severino is real, and I've always been high on him, pair him up with Tanaka who the Sox never hit, the Yankees have two very strong starters. The rest of the rotation is suspect but Chapman and Betances and the rest of the pen I think are better than the Sox. The Sox should be better than the Yanks but I don't think it's as head and shoulders above as others think. Last year the Red Sox clearly underachieved. They should have played the Cubs in the Series last season they were that good. This season doesn't feel like underachievement, just a case of this is what they are. They're a good team as they'll hit better at some point and they'll play better at some point, but they're not some runaway 1st place team nor do they look like the class of the league. Worse, they are a pretty boring team right now. They're a yawn on offense. With no David Ortiz ABs to look forward every game, there's no longer that mental calculation of how many guys can they get on if the game is close to get Ortiz up in a big spot. We were so spoiled to have watched Ortiz for all those years. Or we could say "this team is so good that they are struggling right now and still over .500". Imagine playing poorly and being 11-10 over your bad stretch that included injuries, bereavement leaves, illnesses and inconsistent play? One hot stretch and the tone around here is a lot different.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2017 7:30:39 GMT -5
Such a terrible job by Xander. From the team core, he's the last guy I want to extend: A slap hitter with a bit below avg defense. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player, even very good sometimes but he's no Mookie or Benny or JBJ. When he'll lose range and have to be moved from SS, he'll be an avg player. Xander clearly isn't driving the ball right now but he's going the other way and up the middle over 70% of the time. I'd be willing to bet he starts turning on sole pitches and driving the ball. Guys only 24, he struggled a lot second half of last year and he's likely adjusting. The thing is, he's not the problem. He's not supposed to be the guy in the lineup driving the ball consistently. Mookie, Hanley and Bradley are the guys who have the pop who aren't really showing much of any of it.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2017 7:33:29 GMT -5
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, when asked why #RedSox struggling to score runs: 'David (Ortiz) isn't here. We miss him.'' So there it is - I've been saying it since 2006: This team is nothing without Big Papi. One person can't save a team when they're hitting like this.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 28, 2017 7:35:08 GMT -5
Bogaerts had a .125 Iso for his career entering 2017 and he had a .152 last year. This year it's .015. I agree that he's likely to come out of it, but it's definitely part of the problem.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 28, 2017 7:38:20 GMT -5
It's still early, but.... This doesn't look like the juggernaut team that a lot of people anticipated. The offense is wasting a dominant start by Chris Sale. It's criminal what they've done to this guy. They might as well have kept Moncada and Kopech for the future if the plan was to never score when Sale takes the mound. It's apparent that David Price's contributions this season will be suspect and it's questionable if any of Wright, Porcello, or Rodriguez will step in and be that strong #3 starter. I think the odds of it happening though are better than the odds of getting any meaningful contributions this season out of Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. It's also questionable that the Red Sox are any better off at 3b this season then they've been any of the past 5 seasons. It's not hard to imagine Dombrowski dealing Swihart and whoever has a big breakthrough in the minors (Josh Ockimey is a good candidate) for a right handed 8th inning reliever and a temporary 3b (perhaps Todd Frazier would be a target or even Moustakas). Incidentally, the Yankees top two starters are pretty good. If the improvement by Severino is real, and I've always been high on him, pair him up with Tanaka who the Sox never hit, the Yankees have two very strong starters. The rest of the rotation is suspect but Chapman and Betances and the rest of the pen I think are better than the Sox. The Sox should be better than the Yanks but I don't think it's as head and shoulders above as others think. Last year the Red Sox clearly underachieved. They should have played the Cubs in the Series last season they were that good. This season doesn't feel like underachievement, just a case of this is what they are. They're a good team as they'll hit better at some point and they'll play better at some point, but they're not some runaway 1st place team nor do they look like the class of the league. Worse, they are a pretty boring team right now. They're a yawn on offense. With no David Ortiz ABs to look forward every game, there's no longer that mental calculation of how many guys can they get on if the game is close to get Ortiz up in a big spot. We were so spoiled to have watched Ortiz for all those years. Or we could say "this team is so good that they are struggling right now and still over .500". Imagine playing poorly and being 11-10 over your bad stretch that included injuries, bereavement leaves, illnesses and inconsistent play? One hot stretch and the tone around here is a lot different. Good point. I'm not trying to say wave the white flag, but what I am trying to say is that there are real issues with this team. The plan was Sale, Porcello, Price, and dominate. Price is a big part of that equation and on the good side, he gets needed rest which would more likely help him in October, but on the flip side, I'm skeptical he's going to be healthy. I'm already getting that Jose Melendez feeling about Thornburg and I already have that with Carson Smith. The bullpen could be a problem ready to explode. The Sox best hopes that either Taylor or Workman comes up and asserts himself. I'm not comfortable with Barnes as the primary setup man nor am I comfortable with Kelly or Hembree either. I think they're better in lower leverage situations and I'm frankly not sure that Workman or Taylor are better options, but they at some point will need to stabilize that bullpen. More likely, Dombrowski will use his trade chips to stabilize the 8th inning yet again and will probably need to upgrade 3b in the short-term. The offense will get better. Can it be worse? But clearly 3b and catching are going to be issues on offense. My guess is that soon Vazquez will become the regular catcher over Leon. I think Sandoval will either continue to struggle or have nagging injuries. I also am concerned about the impact of nagging injuries on Pedroia. Last year he didn't really have them and he WAS Dustin Pedroia. The other wildcard is Hanley, who I think will eventually hit although I don't know that he'll match what he did last season. And I don't think Moreland will continue to rake and that could open up another hole. Betts and Benintendi will be spectacular. The Sox could really use Bogaerts developing into the monster at the plate we all thought he would be, complete with power. The lineup seems a lot thinner this year and it's showing in these pitchers' duels. I think the Red Sox will continue to be looking at injuries this season. I'm not sure this is a passing phase with the 2017 team. And it gets magnified with this 3 year window approach. There's a lot of pressure on the Sox to make the playoffs and go far into October. Anything less than that is total failure. It's a long season so we'll see how it plays out. I think it's going to get worse before it gets better and it will get better. I'm just not sure it's going to be the level of better we were hoping for before the season started.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2017 7:51:29 GMT -5
Oh surely there are red flags. Most of these questions existed before the season but people got caught up in the excitement on what could be if all went right.
I have a weird confidence that Workman will be great in the bullpen. Remember how big time he was in big spots back in 2013? It wasn't always pretty but he showed stones as a rookie in the playoffs.
Plus, in 51 days on June 23rd when Papi comes out for his number retirement ceremony, he's going to take the Microphone and say: "it's such and honor to be here, standing in front of all of you, you guys have been my family for so many years and treated me so well. I know you are here to see my number retired but I'm sorry, that's going to have to wait another year. I'M BACK BOSTON"
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 28, 2017 7:55:05 GMT -5
Bogaerts had a .125 Iso for his career entering 2017 and he had a .152 last year. This year it's .015. I agree that he's likely to come out of it, but it's definitely part of the problem. Of course, but to lay it mostly on him isn't fair. The power part of their order is under performing except Moreland and he wasn't really supposed to be part of that. Coming into the Yankees series the team was first in the league in Average and second in OBP. The issue is no one besides Moreland has been driving the ball up to their standards. Ok the catchers, but they had no standards.
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Post by thursty on Apr 28, 2017 8:17:08 GMT -5
Mookie's wRC+: 2016 135 2017 135
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