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Post by ramireja on Jul 27, 2017 13:00:05 GMT -5
Its Houck day in America so what better time to start a thread dedicated to our 2017 1st round pick. Here's an interview with Houck from Fangraphs posted today. Given Cundall's first two looks at Houck which had his fastball sitting 94-97 (1st look) and 91-93 (2nd look), I thought the following was an interesting quote. Seems to suggest the lower velocity in the 2nd start may have been intentional:
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 27, 2017 13:44:06 GMT -5
Good stuff. He understands how moderating the velocity changes the dynamics, and he sees it as a way to fine-tune his approach. Thanks for the link.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 27, 2017 22:43:59 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Jul 27, 2017 23:32:15 GMT -5
Houck looks like a fast-mover to me. Might be a few years before he has any real MLB success, but he's consistent, seems to have a good sense of "pitching" vs. throwing, and has good command of his primary pitch.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 28, 2017 1:37:09 GMT -5
Houck looks like a fast-mover to me. Might be a few years before he has any real MLB success, but he's consistent, seems to have a good sense of "pitching" vs. throwing, and has good command of his primary pitch. His whole prospect profile sounds eerily similar to the one of Jonathan Papelbon. Houck is going to be one of the most intriguing arms in the system the next 2-3 years.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 28, 2017 5:36:46 GMT -5
What are the odds of drafting pitchers and building them up to be starters? Sometimes I feel if the Sox are honest with themselves and just let the pitchers stay as a bullpen help they would breeze thru the system faster to help the team.
I know why they start them as starters. They like to develop them that way and if you hit it presents excellent value.
I just think it's five starters the odds are very low. I feel we have the talent to fix the bullpen. I mean to have a nasty one. Trading prospects s for bullpen help that can't help us two years in a row. It makes me wonder why not take a different strategy.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2017 6:35:18 GMT -5
Houck looks like a fast-mover to me. Might be a few years before he has any real MLB success, but he's consistent, seems to have a good sense of "pitching" vs. throwing, and has good command of his primary pitch. His whole prospect profile sounds eerily similar to the one of Jonathan Papelbon. Houck is going to be one of the most intriguing arms in the system the next 2-3 years. Not really. More like Justin Masterson.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 28, 2017 7:19:44 GMT -5
His whole prospect profile sounds eerily similar to the one of Jonathan Papelbon. Houck is going to be one of the most intriguing arms in the system the next 2-3 years. Not really. More like Justin Masterson. Maybe this is unnecessarily hair-splitting, but was Papelbon a better prospect than Masterson? Their career paths were pretty similar, but Papelbon's status and ranking history had the advantage of him not graduating in 2005 when he blew up, whereas Masterson did graduate in 2008. Papelbon basically hit his perfect-world projection. Delivery-wise, Houck's somewhere in between - there's some funk there, but not the crazy angle that Masterson came in at. Thing is, it's tough to throw a comp on a prospect of a guy who hit his perfect-world projection. Buchholz, for one example, the best pitching prospect the Red Sox had since Clemens. But comparing a prospect's profile to Buchholz obviously doesn't sound as exciting as throwing on a Lester or Papelbon comp, because Buchholz never got there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2017 9:58:36 GMT -5
Not really. More like Justin Masterson. Maybe this is unnecessarily hair-splitting, but was Papelbon a better prospect than Masterson? Their career paths were pretty similar, but Papelbon's status and ranking history had the advantage of him not graduating in 2005 when he blew up, whereas Masterson did graduate in 2008. Papelbon basically hit his perfect-world projection. Delivery-wise, Houck's somewhere in between - there's some funk there, but not the crazy angle that Masterson came in at. Thing is, it's tough to throw a comp on a prospect of a guy who hit his perfect-world projection. Buchholz, for one example, the best pitching prospect the Red Sox had since Clemens. But comparing a prospect's profile to Buchholz obviously doesn't sound as exciting as throwing on a Lester or Papelbon comp, because Buchholz never got there. It all depends on what time you're comparing Papelbon and Masterson though, right? I have to be honest in that I wasn't really on board here yet when Papelbon was drafted (my first draft that I can remember was 2004). But my understanding was that Masterson was more highly regarded coming out of his draft than Papelbon was in his (2nd vs. 4th round seems to agree with that). I also hate comparing any prospect to Papelbon because he learned his second-best pitch, the splitter, in AAA, and even after he'd made his MLB debut. That's just not a thing you can ever project - he became a two-pitch closer, and he didn't even throw one of the two pitches as he was developing. Literally every projection on him was wrong, essentially, because even if you thought he was going to be a closer, you couldn't have projected him to do so in the way he did.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 28, 2017 11:56:49 GMT -5
Here is a scouting report from Baseball Prospectus on Houck. His report is accessible for non-subscribers and the latter part of the report pasted below: Reports on the stuff largely corroborate recent twitter reports from Ian Cundall. See link above.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 4, 2017 8:28:23 GMT -5
The latest Scouting Scratch is on Tanner Houck. Its a must read and includes video.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 4, 2017 23:17:56 GMT -5
If you are comparing him to Pabelbon or Masterson, it has to be Pabs. They both have that elite fastball.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 5, 2017 4:31:17 GMT -5
So are we looking at 2 maybe 3 years to the bigs? Starting in Greenville next year? Late 2019 early 2020?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 12:42:12 GMT -5
So are we looking at 2 maybe 3 years to the bigs? Starting in Greenville next year? Late 2019 early 2020? You can ballpark his ETA to sometime in 2020 maybe, but for a player as far away as he is, it's a wild guess. He'll come into camp next year competing for a spot in Salem, and at any rate probably finishes the year at that level. Probably reaches Pawtucket in 2019 in the second half at some point if things go right. From there it's things like opportunity available at the MLB level and the team's need for him that would dictate his debut. I'd put money more on 2020 than 2019.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 7, 2017 13:27:40 GMT -5
Who has a better fastball Houck or Paps at the same age?
We all remember Paps fastball being so good he would throw it 10-15 times in a row in majors. Per reports Houck would do the same thing in College sometimes.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 7, 2017 14:06:56 GMT -5
Who has a better fastball Houck or Paps at the same age? We all remember Paps fastball being so good he would throw it 10-15 times in a row in majors. Per reports Houck would do the same thing in College sometimes. It's close. Houck's fastball seems to have more sinking action, while Papelbon had that natural 2 seam action to his fastball. As for his secondary pitches, I don't think he'll ever develop a great third secondary pitch like Papelbon but there's a chance he could develop an okay one. He barely uses his changeup as a third pitch at the moment.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 7, 2017 14:21:23 GMT -5
So are we looking at 2 maybe 3 years to the bigs? Starting in Greenville next year? Late 2019 early 2020? You can ballpark his ETA to sometime in 2020 maybe, but for a player as far away as he is, it's a wild guess. He'll come into camp next year competing for a spot in Salem, and at any rate probably finishes the year at that level. Probably reaches Pawtucket in 2019 in the second half at some point if things go right. From there it's things like opportunity available at the MLB level and the team's need for him that would dictate his debut. I'd put money more on 2020 than 2019. Thanks. I was trying to get an idea. He seems to be way ahead of the other pitchers in the system. Sounds like he is ahead of where kopech is. But, he is older and pitched in the SEC. Do you think with the situation on the big club that the sox will try to move him faster?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 7, 2017 14:44:56 GMT -5
You can ballpark his ETA to sometime in 2020 maybe, but for a player as far away as he is, it's a wild guess. He'll come into camp next year competing for a spot in Salem, and at any rate probably finishes the year at that level. Probably reaches Pawtucket in 2019 in the second half at some point if things go right. From there it's things like opportunity available at the MLB level and the team's need for him that would dictate his debut. I'd put money more on 2020 than 2019. Thanks. I was trying to get an idea. He seems to be way ahead of the other pitchers in the system. Sounds like he is ahead of where kopech is. But, he is older and pitched in the SEC. Do you think with the situation on the big club that the sox will try to move him faster? Matt Barnes is the guy I think of, development-wise. Both have/had outstanding movement on their FB with good velocity (4-seam vs sinker, of course), and a ways to go with secondaries that were/are inconsistent but show(ed) promise. I agree w Chris, 2020 around June would be my guess. Interesting side thought: Porcello and Pomeranz are gone after 2018. My guess is that Porcello walks, and Pomeranz is an extension candidate. I doubt Price opts out, given his deal. Rodriguez continues to have health/consistency issues, but looks like a 3/4 at worst. And Wright is still in the wings. So how Houck does, and how fast he does it, may have some effect on rotation decisions (extensions, FA targets, trades) come winter 2018.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2017 14:54:20 GMT -5
Thanks. I was trying to get an idea. He seems to be way ahead of the other pitchers in the system. Sounds like he is ahead of where kopech is. But, he is older and pitched in the SEC. Do you think with the situation on the big club that the sox will try to move him faster? Matt Barnes is the guy I think of, development-wise. Both have/had outstanding movement on their FB with good velocity (4-seam vs sinker, of course), and a ways to go with secondaries that were/are inconsistent but show(ed) promise. I agree w Chris, 2020 around June would be my guess. Interesting side thought: Porcello and Pomeranz are gone after 2018. My guess is that Porcello walks, and Pomeranz is an extension candidate. I doubt Price opts out, given his deal. Rodriguez continues to have health/consistency issues, but looks like a 3/4 at worst. And Wright is still in the wings. So how Houck does, and how fast he does it, may have some effect on rotation decisions (extensions, FA targets, trades) come winter 2018. I believe Porcello isn't a free agent until after the 2019 season. I think he played under his old contract for 2015 and then his 4 year $80 million deal kicked in starting with 2016 and going thru 2019. He and Chris Sale should both be free agents after the 2019 season.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 7, 2017 15:27:55 GMT -5
Who has a better fastball Houck or Paps at the same age? We all remember Paps fastball being so good he would throw it 10-15 times in a row in majors. Per reports Houck would do the same thing in College sometimes. It's close. Houck's fastball seems to have more sinking action, while Papelbon had that natural 2 seam action to his fastball. As for his secondary pitches, I don't think he'll ever develop a great third secondary pitch like Papelbon but there's a chance he could develop an okay one. He barely uses his changeup as a third pitch at the moment. It's pretty much impossible to compare Papelbon to anyone because of the splitter which he didn't learn until after he was in the majors. I mean if you gave Barnes that splitter, he'd probably be just as good as Papelbon was. Although Barnes' curve is starting to get more swings and misses in the dirt.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 7, 2017 16:17:18 GMT -5
Matt Barnes is the guy I think of, development-wise. Both have/had outstanding movement on their FB with good velocity (4-seam vs sinker, of course), and a ways to go with secondaries that were/are inconsistent but show(ed) promise. I agree w Chris, 2020 around June would be my guess. Interesting side thought: Porcello and Pomeranz are gone after 2018. My guess is that Porcello walks, and Pomeranz is an extension candidate. I doubt Price opts out, given his deal. Rodriguez continues to have health/consistency issues, but looks like a 3/4 at worst. And Wright is still in the wings. So how Houck does, and how fast he does it, may have some effect on rotation decisions (extensions, FA targets, trades) come winter 2018. I believe Porcello isn't a free agent until after the 2019 season. I think he played under his old contract for 2015 and then his 4 year $80 million deal kicked in starting with 2016 and going thru 2019. He and Chris Sale should both be free agents after the 2019 season. Yep, you're right. wrote before I thought about it. Gives them an extra year to see where Houck is.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 16:27:36 GMT -5
You can ballpark his ETA to sometime in 2020 maybe, but for a player as far away as he is, it's a wild guess. He'll come into camp next year competing for a spot in Salem, and at any rate probably finishes the year at that level. Probably reaches Pawtucket in 2019 in the second half at some point if things go right. From there it's things like opportunity available at the MLB level and the team's need for him that would dictate his debut. I'd put money more on 2020 than 2019. Thanks. I was trying to get an idea. He seems to be way ahead of the other pitchers in the system. Sounds like he is ahead of where kopech is. But, he is older and pitched in the SEC. Do you think with the situation on the big club that the sox will try to move him faster? Ahead how? I'm pretty sure I don't agree with any of that, but I'm not quite sure what you mean by "ahead." He's still in Lowell and a long way away, and I'd take Groome over him in a heartbeat, if not Mata. And I can't think of any way I'd consider him "ahead" of Kopech, who is one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game right now, if not number one. And no, the organization will not move any player through the system faster based on major league need. If they're promoting him any faster or slower than when they can say "he is ready for a promotion," they're making a mistake.
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 7, 2017 17:08:06 GMT -5
Thanks. I was trying to get an idea. He seems to be way ahead of the other pitchers in the system. Sounds like he is ahead of where kopech is. But, he is older and pitched in the SEC. Do you think with the situation on the big club that the sox will try to move him faster? Ahead how? I'm pretty sure I don't agree with any of that, but I'm not quite sure what you mean by "ahead." He's still in Lowell and a long way away, and I'd take Groome over him in a heartbeat, if not Mata. And I can't think of any way I'd consider him "ahead" of Kopech, who is one of the top 5 pitching prospects in the game right now, if not number one. And no, the organization will not move any player through the system faster based on major league need. If they're promoting him any faster or slower than when they can say "he is ready for a promotion," they're making a mistake. WOW pretty strong answer. I was looking at kopech comparing first couple of years in the sox organization not where he is now. You like groome and mata over houck. I like kopech as well. The question here would be how his control works out. I think that speaks well for the future. 3 high ceiling pitchers right now in the system. Based on what I have seen with Dave I do not think they are going to move anyone up unless they feel they are ready. This philosophy is obvious with how they have handled Devers. He has been moved up as THEY feel he is ready.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2017 17:21:50 GMT -5
Right, so I guess I still don't understand what you're saying. How do you feel he's "ahead" of other pitchers in the system?
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Post by ryan24 on Aug 7, 2017 17:55:06 GMT -5
Right, so I guess I still don't understand what you're saying. How do you feel he's "ahead" of other pitchers in the system? I guess I said it poorly. It took kopech a couple of years to get to Salem . Houck looks like he will get there to start next season. From the posts on this page it appears Houck has an advanced approach to pitching already. Groome and Mata are younger and appear to be just starting to understand. It does not mean that Houck will be better. just that he appears to be more advanced skill wise at this snapshot in time. From what I have pieced together on what has been said. The timeline for Houck looks like 2020 spring, and the other two are more like late 2020 or maybe 2021. So that would make Houck look like he is ahead of the other 2. Those 2 timelines put them in line with when porcello and Drew as free agents and would give the sox room to sign Sale. Projection here is also like projecting the weather this winter. Understand that it is a reach.
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