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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 18, 2018 20:36:24 GMT -5
Apologies if I'm missing the Tanner Houck thread, but was curious as to what's going on with 2017 1st round pick (24th overall)? He's 21 years old in Salem high-A and has 41 walks to 41 strikeouts in 55.2 IP. So far this year there hasn't been a whole lot to get excited about. Understood it's early for him, but for the capital given to him I'd like to see better ratios given his age and the level he's pitching at, or at least average a k per inning. Does someone have a more in depth scouting report and what's going with him and if he still could project as a middle of the rotation arm?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 13,961
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Post by cdj on Jun 18, 2018 22:02:11 GMT -5
Revamped his delivery and did an overhaul of his pitch mix
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 19, 2018 0:28:31 GMT -5
Apologies if I'm missing the Tanner Houck thread, but was curious as to what's going on with 2017 1st round pick (24th overall)? He's 21 years old in Salem high-A and has 41 walks to 41 strikeouts in 55.2 IP. So far this year there hasn't been a whole lot to get excited about. Understood it's early for him, but for the capital given to him I'd like to see better ratios given his age and the level he's pitching at, or at least average a k per inning. Does someone have a more in depth scouting report and what's going with him and if he still could project as a middle of the rotation arm? Simply put as cdj explained above, it's going to take a little longer than expected for Houck. The results haven't come yet with everything he's changed.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 19, 2018 1:47:48 GMT -5
Yes, and if you're looking for more detail on the overhaul of his pitch mix and revamped mechanics, look no further than Page 5 of this thread.
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Post by Ryanod1 on Jun 19, 2018 6:47:06 GMT -5
I don't know, they let Matt Barnes mow guys down in Greenville for a while and it didn't turn him into a starter (not that I think Houck would necessarily be performing that way a level down right now). I don't know that Houck is further from the majors right now because he's struggling at Salem versus doing kinda OK at Greenville, maybe he'd be learning less if he were facing more guys he could just blow poorly located fastballs by. The point where I would be concerned would be if he was getting chased in the first or second inning of his stars frequently, but he's actually gone at least four innings in every game but one. As long as he's holding his own to the extent that he's still getting his reps in, I'm willing to believe or at least acknowledge the possibility that struggling against more advanced competition is good for his development. They weren't attempting to change Barnes' entire arsenal. If it weren't for the significant changes in repertoire and mechnanics that Houck was trying to implement, I'd be fully on board with Salem as where he needed to start, absolutely. And I'll also acknowledge that his development probably isn't being hurt at all. At the same time, getting a month in Greenville to lock things in wouldn't have slowed him down either. These are all really good points. I wonder if maybe the Sox saw more opportunity placing Houck in Salem. I felt the same way as Chris initially, but I am leaning the other way at this point. The agressive placement absolutely makes things a little more difficult when learning new mechanics or pitches. I think the Sox decided on Salem because of the fact he is so coachable. What better way to decide whether something does or does not work than having him face more advanced players? The Sox can always just fall back to the pitches that made him so good in college if their plan fails. Houck seems like a quick learner so if the 4 seam isnt figured out fast then they will know earlier to scrap it. Lower level players are much more likely to chase bad pitches, which is not a good tell of a pitch's true effectiveness. You guys all know a ton more, but this is how I decided that I liked the aggressive placement.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2018 7:29:54 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 21, 2018 12:50:18 GMT -5
The article still mentioned that Houck is mixing in the high 4 seam fastball, so it wasn't a failed experiment. He added a knucklecurveball too this season.
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Post by jdb on Jun 21, 2018 13:42:46 GMT -5
The article did make it sound like they wanted the 4 seam/curve heavy combo early to maybe jump start those pitches. Can’t wait to see how the rest of the season unfolds for him.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2018 15:38:05 GMT -5
I was wondering what the numbers looked like since making the change back to a predominately 2-seam/slider mix. Thanks James!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2018 18:03:01 GMT -5
FWIW, as I said on the podcast, the breaking ball is actually not the college one - he's using a spike curve grip, although it's still moving like a hard, vertical-ish slider. So the experimenting hasn't completely been for naught.
But like I also said on the podcast, I'll wait to see how he does against AA hitters before starting to get too excited.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 19, 2018 18:26:23 GMT -5
FWIW, as I said on the podcast, the breaking ball is actually not the college one - he's using a spike curve grip, although it's still moving like a hard, vertical-ish slider. So the experimenting hasn't completely been for naught. But like I also said on the podcast, I'll wait to see how he does against AA hitters before starting to get too excited. He still is throwing the fourseam fastball too, although not regularly now. The experimental did nothing but add pitches and options for Houck, which is a good thing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2018 19:07:54 GMT -5
FWIW, as I said on the podcast, the breaking ball is actually not the college one - he's using a spike curve grip, although it's still moving like a hard, vertical-ish slider. So the experimenting hasn't completely been for naught. But like I also said on the podcast, I'll wait to see how he does against AA hitters before starting to get too excited. He still is throwing the fourseam fastball too, although not regularly now. The experimental did nothing but add pitches and options for Houck, which is a good thing. He threw no four-seams at the game I was at recently, or at least didn't seem to - Potomac has a brutal viewing angle for evaluating pitches. In the Spring, you could tell because the velo was up another 2-3 mph. His FBs were all in the same velo band here.
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Post by benjgc on Jul 19, 2018 19:19:51 GMT -5
He still is throwing the fourseam fastball too, although not regularly now. The experimental did nothing but add pitches and options for Houck, which is a good thing. He threw no four-seams at the game I was at recently, or at least didn't seem to - Potomac has a brutal viewing angle for evaluating pitches. In the Spring, you could tell because the velo was up another 2-3 mph. His FBs were all in the same velo band here. It's gotten easier to tell for me. Last night, he was throwing both 4- and 2-seam heaters at 95, but the movement on the 2-seam was sharp and obvious. It dove toward a righty batter's belt-buckle from about two feet out. Sick action. He's a really tantalizing prospect IMO, a guy whose stats don't match his stuff... yet.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 19, 2018 21:52:22 GMT -5
He threw no four-seams at the game I was at recently, or at least didn't seem to - Potomac has a brutal viewing angle for evaluating pitches. In the Spring, you could tell because the velo was up another 2-3 mph. His FBs were all in the same velo band here. It's gotten easier to tell for me. Last night, he was throwing both 4- and 2-seam heaters at 95, but the movement on the 2-seam was sharp and obvious. It dove toward a righty batter's belt-buckle from about two feet out. Sick action. He's a really tantalizing prospect IMO, a guy whose stats don't match his stuff... yet. I have these wonderfully vivid dreams of Houck becoming a Kevin Brown clone, only without the general grumpy attitude.
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Post by jackiebradleyjrjr on Jul 20, 2018 1:54:18 GMT -5
He still is throwing the fourseam fastball too, although not regularly now. The experimental did nothing but add pitches and options for Houck, which is a good thing. He threw no four-seams at the game I was at recently, or at least didn't seem to - Potomac has a brutal viewing angle for evaluating pitches. In the Spring, you could tell because the velo was up another 2-3 mph. His FBs were all in the same velo band here. Hmmmm. Are you sure, Chris? I was at the game too (I live in NoVa; first baseball game I ever saw was at that park so I’ll always have a soft spot for it— even if it’s a lousy stadium). I could have sworn he threw several 4-seamers. Yes, all his fastballs had similar velocities but some had lots of bite and movement (which were clearly his two-steamers). While some had less polish and movement but were clearly being thrown up in the zone (I think these were his four-seamers... either that or they were really awful two-seamers. You’re right the stadium has awful views to gauge pitches but they looked so different to me they almost have to be two different pitches... uhhh I think... I hope). I could be completely wrong though. 🤷🏻♂️
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 24, 2018 12:29:45 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 16, 2018 9:03:44 GMT -5
I'm just impressed with his ratios:
Over last ten games: 3.24 ERA, 636strikeouts, 16 walks in 58.1 IP
That's got to be a record, yes?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2018 9:30:54 GMT -5
I'm just impressed with his ratios: Over last ten games: 3.24 ERA, 636strikeouts, 16 walks in 58.1 IP That's got to be a record, yes? If he had 636 strikouts in 58.1 IP, I would think he needed a different catcher.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 16, 2018 10:02:11 GMT -5
I'm just impressed with his ratios: Over last ten games: 3.24 ERA, 636strikeouts, 16 walks in 58.1 IP That's got to be a record, yes? If he had 636 strikouts in 58.1 IP, I would think he needed a different catcher. I don't think Jake Romanski is the answer.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 16, 2018 11:55:49 GMT -5
Does anyone else feel like Houck would be a great candidate to be used in some sort of Rays-style non-traditional role? The consensus is that he's likely to be successful as a reliever just based on his current skills, and might be a starter with the development of some additional skills. Traditionally, you wouldn't want to rush him into a bullpen role because he'd just pitch one inning at a time which largely shuts down development towards being a starter. But why be beholden to tradition? Put him into a long reliever/fireman/piggyback role. Maybe a once-through-the-lineup opener against righty heavy lineups. I don't want to be too prescriptive on the exact what you'd use him because all this stuff is still being invented, but something where he can contribute to the major league team quickly, while still pitching in long enough stints that he still retains a path to eventually becoming a full on starter.
Thoughts?
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Post by orion09 on Aug 16, 2018 20:27:41 GMT -5
Have been meaning to post this for a while. Here are gifs I made from Youtube videos of Houck. One at Ole Miss, and another look from April of this year. I'm not a scout, so take this with a grain of salt... but I see some mechanical red flags in the Ole Miss look. His arm is lagging behind his lower body. As a result, his legs aren't engaged as much as they should be and his arm has to whip through the zone to catch up, placing excessive strain on his ligaments, especially in the rotator cuff/labrum. (The "inverted W" that Chris O'Leary talks about.) Guys with timing problems like this inevitably get hurt. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Stephen Strasburg. You can practically feel the strain when you watch him deliver. Next, here's the look from April 2018, after his reported delivery tweaks. To me, he looks much more direct to the plate, and uses his legs to transfer power to his hips, torso, and then arm in one smooth motion. The elbow does go high, which is not textbook, but his arm does a good job of catching up with the rest of his body, and so he's able to tap into the torque generated from his hips/torso, taking some of the strain off his arm. In fact... his new delivery reminds me an extraordinary amount of someone we know pretty well. (A lefty, mirrored here for clarity.) A guy who has an untraditional delivery, and was knocked early in his career as an injury risk. IMO, his mechanics actually work well (healthwise) because his arm doesn't lag behind his body like the guys who get hurt.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 16, 2018 22:05:07 GMT -5
Have been meaning to post this for a while. Here are gifs I made from Youtube videos of Houck. One at Ole Miss, and another look from April of this year. I'm not a scout, so take this with a grain of salt... but I see some mechanical red flags in the Ole Miss look. His arm is lagging behind his lower body. As a result, his legs aren't engaged as much as they should be and his arm has to whip through the zone to catch up, placing excessive strain on his ligaments, especially in the rotator cuff/labrum. (The "inverted W" that Chris O'Leary talks about.) Guys with timing problems like this inevitably get hurt. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Stephen Strasburg. You can practically feel the strain when you watch him deliver. Next, here's the look from April 2018, after his reported delivery tweaks. To me, he looks much more direct to the plate, and uses his legs to transfer power to his hips, torso, and then arm in one smooth motion. The elbow does go high, which is not textbook, but his arm does a good job of catching up with the rest of his body, and so he's able to tap into the torque generated from his hips/torso, taking some of the strain off his arm. In fact... his new delivery reminds me an extraordinary amount of someone we know pretty well. (A lefty, mirrored here for clarity.) A guy who has an untraditional delivery, and was knocked early in his career as an injury risk. IMO, his mechanics actually work well (healthwise) because his arm doesn't lag behind his body like the guys who get hurt. Terrific job, thank you!
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Post by ramireja on Aug 21, 2018 11:26:02 GMT -5
Rays-related discussion moved to its own thread
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Post by ramireja on Sept 10, 2018 18:40:36 GMT -5
Hey all, I wanted to take a cursory peek at Tanner Houck's turnaround this year and see how his two halves compared to other High-A performances by notable and relatively recent college draft signees in our org. It turns out Houck in his first 11 starts was considerably worse than all of these guys, but Houck in his last 12 starts was arguably better than the rest as well. You can take a peek to see how these guys compare, and apologies in advance if your favorite stat/predictor isn't included in the list below. These are the stats that I could get quick access to and easily split between Houck's first/second halves of the year. I believe the way I split Houck's starts is consistent with when he reportedly made the change back to his prior arsenal/mechanics. The leader in each statistical category is bolded. Note that good Houck's K% and FIP was only bested by Brian Johnson, who had a pretty small sample size to work with and also had a slower progression to High-A than Houck: Name | Hi-A Year | Draft Year | Innings | K% | B% | BA against | WHIP | ERA | FIP | Houck (First 11) | 2018 | 2017 | 49.2 | 15.8% | 15.4% | .286 | 1.91 | 6.16 | 6.16 | Houck (Last 12) | 2018 | 2017 | 69.1 | 26.2% | 8.2% | .206 | 1.08 | 2.86 | 2.98 | Mike Shawaryn | 2017 | 2016 | 81.1 | 25.9% | 9.9% | .228 | 1.30 | 3.76 | 4.23 | Shaun Anderson | 2017 | 2016 | 58.2 | 19.4% | 7.3% | .233 | 1.21 | 3.99 | 4.11 | Jalen Beeks | 2016 | 2014 | 67.1 | 19.0% | 8.3% | .257 | 1.35 | 3.07 | 4.90 | Brian Johnson | 2013/2014 | 2012 | 36.2 | 26.6% | 7.8% | .225 | 1.20 | 3.19 | 2.21 | Matt Barnes | 2012 | 2011 | 93.0 | 23.8% | 6.5% | .243 | 1.18 | 3.58 | 3.33 | Brandon Workman | 2012 | 2010 | 113.2 | 23.6% | 4.4% | .240 | 1.09 | 3.40 | 3.20 | Anthony Ranaudo | 2011 | 2010 | 81.0 | 19.3% | 8.6% | .259 | 1.36 | 4.33 | 3.98 |
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2018 13:11:53 GMT -5
It looks like his UCL is just going to snap while pitching.
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