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9/28-10/1 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
cutz
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Posts: 2,323
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Post by cutz on Sept 29, 2017 21:15:10 GMT -5
Stroman is a competitor & the Jays should be able to score some runs off Garcia, you would think. Really stinks though, because it shouldn't come down to this.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 29, 2017 21:15:13 GMT -5
How strange seeing a Farrell team end a season poorly. The series against Toronto was awful all things considered, but the Astros reached 100 wins tonight. They're ridiculously good and no shame in losing a very close game against them. Last week was one of the best weeks in quite some time, it was absolutely awesome through and through. Don't let recency bias be too recent.
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Post by dawnbringr on Sept 29, 2017 21:22:23 GMT -5
The Red Sox are in trouble.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 29, 2017 21:29:08 GMT -5
NYY - hungry.
Houston - hungry.
Cleveland - hungry.
Boston - kind of constipated.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 21:29:10 GMT -5
How strange seeing a Farrell team end a season poorly. The series against Toronto was awful all things considered, but the Astros reached 100 wins tonight. They're ridiculously good and no shame in losing a very close game against them. Last week was one of the best weeks in quite some time, it was absolutely awesome through and through. Don't let recency bias be too recent. context is important. Our win streak was against Toronto, Tampa, Oakland, Tampa again, Baltimore, and Cincy - all sub-.500 mostly terrible teams. Those days are gone - we now have to beat the class teams to go anywhere in the post season. So yes, wins are wins - but losing 2 of 3 to Toronto at home was unforgivable. And here we are. And Hanley is simply having a terrible year 10-66 for the year RISP - and he is mostly our clean up hitter.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,963
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 29, 2017 21:29:14 GMT -5
Story of this game - Benny 0-4 3K 2 LOB Hanley 1-4, but 4 LOB (including bases loaded) Leon 0-3 3K Pedey and Mookie also hitless - just can't win when the big guns come up empty difference between this year and last year - we don't have Papi this year, and no one is stepping up Benintendi, Devers, Leon, Betts, Ramirez, Holt in order of negative WPA. Team Batting Runs of Clutch (based on WPA versus hitting component of bWAR plus BP's SB runs) at start of game: Betts 27 Leon 16 Moreland 10 Bradley 7 Pedroia 5 Vazquez 5 Devers 3 Benintendi 1 Nunez 0 Holt -2 Bogaerts -3 Ramirez -3 Young -7
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 29, 2017 21:31:10 GMT -5
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ianrs
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Posts: 2,444
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Post by ianrs on Sept 29, 2017 21:55:58 GMT -5
This team just seems really run down, which is understandable. Definitely doesn't bode well for the playoffs.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 21:59:57 GMT -5
It is so odd to have less concern about the pitching (despite the set of recent rough starts) than the offense for a Red Sox team. Killing the team right now - Benny, JBJ, Hanley, Sandy, Young, Holt. Hitting well (relatively speaking) - Vazquez, Moreland, Bogaerts ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) ? - Betts, Devers, Pedey HUGE injury - Nunez I would love to see Hanley moved out of clean up - but there aren't may options for creativity with so many line up duds right now. I can't see how we won't take one of the next two games....but I thought we'd win tonight, so again, what do I know.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 29, 2017 22:01:08 GMT -5
Well that game was kind of a kick in the balls. I was all geared up to celebrate. Now the Sox are going to have to use Pomeranz meaning he'd only get one extra day of rest rather than the week off he probably needs.
And if the Sox blow tomorrow and the Yankees win then Sale has to waste his bullets on Sunday.
They look like a team that is out of gas and might need to be pushed over the finish line by somebody else, in this case the Jays with their best chance of beating the Yankees. I'd really hate for the Sox to have to back in to win the division. They've had 5 games at home to put this way and the last two with chances to clinch. Thought they'd clinch by possibly Tuesday, but more realistically Wednesday or at worst Thursday. Now we're down to Saturday. It's ridiculous and disappointing.
I still think the Sox will win the division, but they are sucking the joy out of it. I've been ready to celebrate the last two days. Had the games DVRed, and have had to erase them.
I don't feel very good about this team. I honestly think the Sox are the weakest of the post-season teams, excluding Minnesota. The only thing I can think of is if the Red Sox back in and the Astros sweep the Sox this weekend, the odds of Houston beating the Red Sox 7 straight wouldn't be too good so that would mean the Sox have to win some post-season game(s) which would be an improvement over last year. That's a silver lining.
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Post by daltonjones on Sept 29, 2017 22:02:17 GMT -5
NYY - hungry. Houston - hungry. Cleveland - hungry. Boston - kind of constipated. MN - spunky
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 22:16:06 GMT -5
Well that game was kind of a kick in the balls. I was all geared up to celebrate. Now the Sox are going to have to use Pomeranz meaning he'd only get one extra day of rest rather than the week off he probably needs. And if the Sox blow tomorrow and the Yankees win then Sale has to waste his bullets on Sunday. They look like a team that is out of gas and might need to be pushed over the finish line by somebody else, in this case the Jays with their best chance of beating the Yankees. I'd really hate for the Sox to have to back in to win the division. They've had 5 games at home to put this way and the last two with chances to clinch. Thought they'd clinch by possibly Tuesday, but more realistically Wednesday or at worst Thursday. Now we're down to Saturday. It's ridiculous and disappointing. I still think the Sox will win the division, but they are sucking the joy out of it. I've been ready to celebrate the last two days. Had the games DVRed, and have had to erase them. I don't feel very good about this team. I honestly think the Sox are the weakest of the post-season teams, excluding Minnesota. The only thing I can think of is if the Red Sox back in and the Astros sweep the Sox this weekend, the odds of Houston beating the Red Sox 7 straight wouldn't be too good so that would mean the Sox have to win some post-season game(s) which would be an improvement over last year. That's a silver lining. 538 site projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/has odds of Sox winning division at 95% - with 6% chance of winning the series (Yankees 5%) Cleveland vastly in front at 28% chance
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Post by station13 on Sept 29, 2017 22:26:13 GMT -5
AL-worst .695 OPS since Aug. 25.
remarkable as the team play around .600 ball.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 29, 2017 22:26:31 GMT -5
Shocking to compare DH/cleanup role last two years
2016 Papi .315-38-127 48 doubles 80 walks .401 OBP 2017 Hanley .241-23-61 23 doubles 50 walks .319 OBP
Incredible contrast. And yet we are in first and about to wrap up first place. Testament to our pitching.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 29, 2017 22:32:04 GMT -5
We got em right where we want em. I don't know why everyone is freaking out. \
18-9 August 16-10 September, 2 games to play
started August up .5 game. But yeah, we are backing into the playoffs
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Post by libermaniac on Sept 29, 2017 22:32:52 GMT -5
Suppose Cleveland and the Astros both win tomorrow. That means the Astros lose the tiebreaker for best record to Cleveland. So, they never admit to rooting for one opponent over another but wouldn't they be tempted to tank the last game to face the Red Sox in round 1?
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2017 22:37:22 GMT -5
Suppose Cleveland and the Astros both win tomorrow. That means the Astros lose the tiebreaker for best record to Cleveland. So, they never admit to rooting for one opponent over another but wouldn't they be tempted to tank the last game to face the Red Sox in round 1? They unquestionably would prefer their first-round opponent to have to play a one-game playoff. It's not as big a deal to them as getting the right players rested for the playoffs, but they have a good reason to be trying.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 29, 2017 23:23:09 GMT -5
The trend is definitely not their friend.
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 29, 2017 23:28:41 GMT -5
In a podcast interview with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (transcript link), Xander Bogaerts provides details on the hand injury that curtailed his production over the summer. Bogaerts was hit on the right hand by a pitch on July 6 and simply wasn’t the same afterwards, hitting just .193/.270/.293 over his next 200 plate appearances. “Looking back I probably should have taken a few days off. I thought with the All-Star break coming up I would have been find, home resting it,” Bogaerts said. “But when I came back it never got better….It was a little more serious than I thought.” The Red Sox shortstop received two cortisone shots to treat his injured hand and said he has started to feel like his old self over the last month, as evidenced by his .800 OPS in the month of September. Needless to say, an in-form Bogaerts would provide a big boost to the Sox in the postseason, especially given other injury concerns within Boston’s lineup. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/al-east-notes-donaldson-cards-hardy-bogaerts.html
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,963
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 30, 2017 3:42:11 GMT -5
There are some really interesting possibilities here.
If we win today, we clinch, the Indians clinch first seed, the Yankee game if still in progress becomes meaningless, and the Indians game at 7:00 PM plus all the Sunday games turn into tuneups.
If we back into the division by losing while the Yankees lose, then the Indians game at 7:00 becomes crucial. If they win (and they have Kluber going), then all the Sunday games are tuneups. But if they lose, the the Astros go into Sunday with a shot at top seed. It's a tuneup for us, so the pressure is very much on the Indians.
If we don't clinch this afternoon but the Indians win in the evening, then the Astros know they're the second seed and will hope to beat us on Sunday while the Yankees win, forcing a playoff game Monday for the division. They get the winner, but that team will have burned a SP, which would help them. OTOH, if they go all out to beat us and either fail, or the Yankees lose, the extra effort is rendered moot and they might regret not using it as at least a partial tuneup. Their best strategy might be to play it halfway.
The crazy scenario is where we don't clinch today, and neither do the Indians. If we win on Sunday, that renders the other two games moot, just like today. If we lose and ...
... Yankees lose, then we win the division and Indians are playing for first seed.
... Yankees win, then we have a playoff game and the Indians are playing for the first seed, but if they lose they get the consolation of getting a team that has burned an extra SP on Monday.
Since all the games start at 3:00 PM, roughly, you might see strategy shifting depending on out-of-town scores.
If you're just a baseball fan, you're hoping for the Sunday scenario where all three games are meaningful because nothing has been decided. If you're a Red Sox fan, you're hoping for a 27-0 victory today.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2017 7:13:57 GMT -5
Stroman is a competitor & the Jays should be able to score some runs off Garcia, you would think. Really stinks though, because it shouldn't come down to this. Now in our latest version of small sample theater: Stroman 5.49 ERA against NYY this season in 19.2 IP. Also: 4.09 ERA in day, 2.59 at night.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 30, 2017 7:18:47 GMT -5
The best case scenario for the Sox today is that the offense explodes against McCullers and Pomeranz does a low pitch 5 and dive and the Sox clinch.
If the Yankees are going to lose you would think today would be the day, but as much as I despise the pinstriped team, my feeling is that if the Red Sox can't manage more than 1 victory in a 7 game homestand, and can't hold a 5 game lead with 7 to play, then they deserve to find themselves in a playoff game. Hope it doesn't come to that, but I don't want to see the Yankees let the Red Sox off the hook here. I understand that teams clinch division titles losing their games while some other team knocks off their opponent quite often, but I want the Red Sox to earn this by applying the killer blow themselves. Hope they can do it in a way that preserves Pomeranz as much as possible.
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Post by swingingbunt on Sept 30, 2017 8:10:34 GMT -5
Today's the day!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Sept 30, 2017 8:48:55 GMT -5
Are they even going to play today? Its raining in Boston.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 30, 2017 9:07:21 GMT -5
In anger, unkind words are said and soon the teardrops will start. Why can't they free my doubtful mind and melt my cold cold heart?
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