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2018 Red Sox roster building
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2018 15:10:15 GMT -5
I can remember many pitchers through the years who had up and down seasons like Porcello has. He did just win a Cy Young and now nobody expects anything out of him? I think it is just as likely he has a sub 3.5 era than a 4.5, look at the history. He has had a ERA above 4 in every year besides 2016. |
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 13, 2018 15:40:21 GMT -5
I am not doing the 6 years, unless it is a team option. Come on, his best offensive year was last year, how convenient for him. DD has to show some sack here, the guys will hit better this year. i guarantee it. They have to, JF is not the manager anymore. While it is true that he had a great year last year, let's not act like he is one of those players that has one huge year before free agency, cashes in and then does nothing. JDM has been one of the top bats in the league for the last 4 years. |
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Post by larrycook on Jan 13, 2018 15:45:43 GMT -5
I am not doing the 6 years, unless it is a team option. Come on, his best offensive year was last year, how convenient for him. DD has to show some sack here, the guys will hit better this year. i guarantee it. They have to, JF is not the manager anymore. While it is true that he had a great year last year, let's not act like he is one of those players that has one huge year before free agency, cashes in and then does nothing. JDM has been one of the top bats in the league for the last 4 years. Reports of JD looking for 6 years and 180 million. Is he really worth 5 million more per season than Stanton? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2018 17:05:40 GMT -5
While it is true that he had a great year last year, let's not act like he is one of those players that has one huge year before free agency, cashes in and then does nothing. JDM has been one of the top bats in the league for the last 4 years. Reports of JD looking for 6 years and 180 million. Is he really worth 5 million more per season than Stanton? I'd rather sign Stanton for 6 years and 180 million, but he's not a free agent. I'd probably would rather trade for Stanton, but it wasn't Nomar who bought the Marlins. You can't compare Stanton's contract to JDM's. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 13, 2018 20:02:46 GMT -5
I can remember many pitchers through the years who had up and down seasons like Porcello has. He did just win a Cy Young and now nobody expects anything out of him? I think it is just as likely he has a sub 3.5 era than a 4.5, look at the history. He has had a ERA above 4 in every year besides 2016. Really?? 3.43 in 2014 over 204 innings. So he has been very good 2014, not so 2015, CY 2016, not so good 2017. Like I said he has as good a chance of being sub 3.5 as he does 4.5 |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2018 21:08:27 GMT -5
He has had a ERA above 4 in every year besides 2016. Really?? 3.43 in 2014 over 204 innings. So he has been very good 2014, not so 2015, CY 2016, not so good 2017. Like I said he has as good a chance of being sub 3.5 as he does 4.5 Sorry. You're correct. I hope you're right too. Recently, he has either been bad or really good and no in between. |
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Post by mredsox89 on Jan 13, 2018 21:15:52 GMT -5
Porcello's advanced pitching metrics have also been fairly consistently good to great for years, and his bad years are pretty much due to massive rises in HR/9 rate. Now if you think that his HR/9 rate is going to stay up, then there's more cause for concern. I'd fathom a guess that it settles somewhere between last year and his CY year, which should provide a marked improvement from 2017
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2018 21:55:57 GMT -5
Porcello's advanced pitching metrics have also been fairly consistently good to great for years, and his bad years are pretty much due to massive rises in HR/9 rate. Now if you think that his HR/9 rate is going to stay up, then there's more cause for concern. I'd fathom a guess that it settles somewhere between last year and his CY year, which should provide a marked improvement from 2017 You can make the case Porcello was terrible because of Hanley in the outfield and Pablo at third base in 2015 (in fact that made the whole pitching staff terrible in part because of this), and he was bad last year because of a juiced ball (as you mentioned homerun rate). So I hope for the best and hopefully MLB stops messing around with the baseballs. Manfred seems like a ratings hunter, so we will see. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 14, 2018 0:53:25 GMT -5
Last year the team finished with the same record as their pythag projection and used a 15-2 record in extra innings to aid their final record. The 2016 team felt like a 100 win team that fell short in a lot of close games (not exactly a clutch offense despite their prolific offense). Last year's team was actually pretty clutch - when they were down a run late it didn't feel like a death sentence the way it did the year before, despite the offense not playing so well. The offense should be better but we're also assuming complete health. Who knows? As far as the pitching side of things I don't know that Sale will quite as dominating or that Kimbrel will be quite as perfect. Not convinced that Price will be completely healthy and I think Pomeranz's numbers won't be quite as good. Don't know what to make of E-Rod yet. I have an optimistic feeling that Wright could be better than expected. I'm not convinced that Porcello bounces back. They were hitting him hard last season. I think the pen is questionable. Don't know how well Smith will bounce back and I have little faith they're going to get much out of Thornburg - this deal will wind up being a killer - others here knew that the moment it was made, while I was cool with the deal. I was wrong. It's hard to come back from what Thornburg has. It's a good team but they truly lack a middle of the order bat - I'm not talking just a guy who bops homers, but a true middle of the order bat. Devers will be that guy but it's unfair to ask that of him now and put that kind of pressure on him and I never want to see Moreland batting cleanup again. I never really truly felt this team was really better than New York last year, and the Yankees have improved themselves and I suspect they're not done yet. Perhaps it doesn't really matter - the Sox have finished 1st twice in a row and it hasn't mattered a bit, so maybe being a 90 win wild card and hoping for them to be blazing hot in October isn't that big a deal after all. I love you champs, I really do, but if I have to read posts about the Yanks being better than us, as much as I did last year, I am gonna go out of my mind! You are free to post whatever you like, but I am going to make sure i respond with I don't agree and remind you that we are the friggin Boston Red Sox. We arent afraid of those phucks anymore!!  Jerry, you're awesome too as would anybody be who can incorporate Nomar and the Grateful Dead into his handle.  It's fine to disagree with my posts - that's cool. Just because I'm a diehard Red Sox fan that doesn't mean I automatically have to declare the Red Sox better. Hating the Yankees isn't a good enough reason to lose objectivity for what I really think. My thought process isn't I'm a Red Sox fan so therefore the Red Sox are automatically the better team. A lot of years they're not. Some years they totally are. If I honestly thought the Red Sox were better than NY, I'd tell you. I don't think they're THAT far off from the Yankees at the moment, but I do think they need to get better to right up there with them. I think with my head, not my heart. Doesn't always mean I'm right, though. Besides, honest question here - if the Red Sox are going to win the division title in 2018, who do you think they really have to get past to win the division title? Do you really think it's Toronto? They haven't improved themselves and they're not as good as the Red Sox are, so no. Is it Baltimore? No, they're the same Orioles they usually are. Is it Tampa Bay? No they're back in their dark ages. It's the MFYs. They're every bit as good as the Sox if not better, and they have improved themselves this offseason which the Sox have not done yet - and yes, the same can be said about most teams thus far. So how realistically do you improve last year's team? Getting a reliever to replace Reed won't move the meter much in the upward direction unless you're adding the second coming of Andrew Miller. You could bring back Nunez, but the Sox already had Nunez, so you're not really improving upon what you had last season. So what really moves the meter here? You get a top notch starter or you get a big bat? So what are the options? You can sign Yu Darvish. Don't see where this really happens. I like Darvish but with him he's getting 6 or 7 years at $25 - $30 million/year. Does Arrietta move the meter? I don't think he's as good as he was a few years back with the Cubs. Besides in all honesty, if you have Sale, Price is deemed healthy as of now, Pomeranz, Porcello, and Wright are healthy and you have E-Rod coming back and you have decent depth, a top notch starter isn't necessarily something you need to have, but you can make the argument for it. I just think your impactful options are limited here. With Martinez, he is the middle of the order bat you need. He's not some fluky hitter. He has a track record over the past four years and I see no reason why he should fall off a cliff over the next few years. As far as his contract goes, I think it's a reasonable bet that 6 years will seal the deal. I also think he has a much better chance of 6 years than he does of getting $30 million/year. He has a snowball's chance in hell of getting that kind of money. Boras is out of his freaking mind if he thinks ANY team is going to pay that annually for Martinez. If Donaldson is getting $23 million, then I think as a free agent Martinez can expect around $25 million/year. Any NL team would be crazy to offer him 6 years because his defense, being bad now, should be downright scary horrendous by then. He has the safety of the DH in the AL. If the Red Sox need to secure his services with that 6th year then so be it. The next year or two are very crucial for the Red Sox. Come 2020/2021 we have very little idea how good the Sox will be. They will have a lot of free agent defections by then with precious little impact coming up in the farm system. Martinez would be a very valuable player over those first two years of the deal and sometimes that's what matters most. For example the Sox signed Keith Foulke to a 3 year deal. They only got true value out of 1 year's worth. Shane Victorino was 3 years $39 million. They only got true value out of 1 year's worth. Were those deals ultimately worth it? Hell, yeah they were. Flags fly forever and those two were huge contributors, so if Martinez isn't the greatest investment in years 5 or 6 and they got huge value when they needed it, it isn't the end of the world. I'm not trying to tell you that getting 2 good years and 4 bad ones is a good idea for a contract, but what I'm telling you is that anytime you sign a free agent, you're making a bad deal - you're not likely going to recoup your investment so the best thing you can do is get value when you need it, and these next two seasons are crucial for that, and with JDM I think they'd get four years or so of good value from him. Otherwise what options are there? There's Abreu and Machado and both will empty out the farm system for a very short span of time. Totally empty out that farm system and you'll be guaranteed that you have practically no shot after 2020. This is why I think Martinez is the one way to really improve last year's team. You take the 2016 Red Sox and you essentially replace Ortiz with Sale but they didn't improve. What if they had Ortiz AND Sale? Wouldn't the Sox have been better? Well they didn't replace Ortiz's bat. JDM is most likely to be the guy who can do most of that, so his presence in the lineup would be a huge upgrade. Perhaps Cora will be an upgrade to Farrell. Who knows? I mean what was the attitude when Farrell came in? He couldn't be any worse than Bobby V, and as it turned out they won the Series in his first season - Cora should do as well?! We'll see re: Cora. He might wind up being the Belichick/Brad Stevens of the Red Sox, but we just don't know yet how good he is or what his impact will be. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 14, 2018 4:07:40 GMT -5
Champs, the Yankees need to improve their rotation by a lot to say something to me.
Maybe it's just me, but I can see a lot more going wrong there than what's going wrong here in this rotation, even with the Price question marks.
That is me. If Severino goes down at any point, then the Yankees are in fact in trouble imo.
Judge will remain a pumpkin until further notice. Go Sox.
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jan 15, 2018 11:30:10 GMT -5
2018 roster building wants and needs:
Wants:
-POWER; Most sox fans want to see JDM on the roster for 2018, I am one of them but only if we can sign him for 20 to 22/yr. not to exceed 5 years. I just am not convinced that there is a market out there that supports what Boras is trying to hype. DD please wait this one out. If you lose this hitter relax; go into the season with your new manager and hitting coach and see whether last years power numbers climb. If they do not; make a move at the deadline, go after a power bat rental.
Need:
- A solid second base player to cover until DP heals up and can return. Ed Nunez can fill this slot and free up Bogey and Devers from time to time after
Dustin returns.
- I think you can never have enough starting pitching. DD test the waters on Archer, find out if Tampa could be interested in putting together a deal.
- Left hand bullpen arm.
We have a solid roster; patience DD; Boras is way off the FA market this year. Pounce on the opening that is sure to come.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 15, 2018 12:57:12 GMT -5
Something that doesn't make any sense to me.
Brian Jonnson has for the most part has been very successful in AAA. Correct me if I am wrong but the knock on him is that he has good stuff and 4 pitches but none that are exceptional so he can't get good ML hitters out consistently.
If that is the case how does moving him to the bullpen make any sense? Is it the hope that in shorter outings he can dial it up?
And on another note how close do you think a team in baseball is to having a 13 man staff that embraces a concept of basically having 7/8 pitchers who are used like a starter. Basically planning on guys going 4/5 innings then going with a middle reliever or in other words 2 guys splitting a start. Yes at times guys will go 7/8 but not all the time, somebody like Sale doing it 75% of the time but not every outing. Of course you have to have the depth to do it, which I think the Sox do, but right now it seems like middle relievers are more often than not used as mopup guys for a bad start. I always read about pitchers being able to make it through the lineup 3 times, what if they embraced getting through twice?
We are already seeing teams put more emphasis on and using bullpens differently, is this the next step? Once again it depends on depth but in the long run you are taking pressure off of pitchers and keeping them fresher. Maybe it would also depend on a teams ability to shuttle guys up and down from the minors.
Maybe it is just a crazy thought but it would really be nice if your best pitchers were fresh for the playoffs and fresher during the season because they had fewer innings of use. Isn't there a lot of statistics out there that show pichers era climb aroung the 6th inning?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 13:08:59 GMT -5
Something that doesn't make any sense to me. Brian Jonnson has for the most part has been very successful in AAA. Correct me if I am wrong but the knock on him is that he has good stuff and 4 pitches but none that are exceptional so he can't get good ML hitters out consistently. If that is the case how does moving him to the bullpen make any sense? Is it the hope that in shorter outings he can dial it up? And on another note how close do you think a team in baseball is to having a 13 man staff that embraces a concept of basically having 7/8 pitchers who are used like a starter. Basically planning on guys going 4/5 innings then going with a middle reliever or in other words 2 guys splitting a start. Yes at times guys will go 7/8 but not all the time, somebody like Sale doing it 75% of the time but not every outing. Of course you have to have the depth to do it, which I think the Sox do, but right now it seems like middle relievers are more often than not used as mopup guys for a bad start. I always read about pitchers being able to make it through the lineup 3 times, what if they embraced getting through twice? We are already seeing teams put more emphasis on and using bullpens differently, is this the next step? Once again it depends on depth but in the long run you are taking pressure off of pitchers and keeping them fresher. Maybe it would also depend on a teams ability to shuttle guys up and down from the minors. Maybe it is just a crazy thought but it would really be nice if your best pitchers were fresh for the playoffs and fresher during the season because they had fewer innings of use. Isn't there a lot of statistics out there that show pichers era climb aroung the 6th inning? I think moving Johnson to the bullpen was during the Farrell era. Now bat Alex Cora has become manager some ideas from the winning ways of the Houston Astros could help Johnson stay in starting rotation. An an article that I read had said that the introduction of the curveball to the to the pitching staff led to the success of the Houston Astros. And for what I've watched Johnson has a darn good curveball.It's going to be interesting over the next few weeks and spring training to see what plans Cora and Dombrowski is come up with. |
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Post by webster7777 on Jan 15, 2018 13:16:31 GMT -5
Great concept voiceofreason on pitchers. I think the best way to have a rotation of pitchers stay healthy is for expanding rosters to 27 players. I am sure the owners wouldn't want that because it will cut into their bottom line but the players would be all for it.
With the 2 added players on each team you expand your rotation to 15 pitchers. I think that would increase the chances of teams going to a 6 man rotation. That is my 2 cents which I am sure everyone will tear apart. Thank you for your time.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2018 13:50:36 GMT -5
Great concept voiceofreason on pitchers. I think the best way to have a rotation of pitchers stay healthy is for expanding rosters to 27 players. I am sure the owners wouldn't want that because it will cut into their bottom line but the players would be all for it. With the 2 added players on each team you expand your rotation to 15 pitchers. I think that would increase the chances of teams going to a 6 man rotation. That is my 2 cents which I am sure everyone will tear apart. Thank you for your time. The odds of all six of Sale/Price/Pomeranz/Porcello/E-Rod/Wright being healthy at the same time are unlikely, but if they were I would think the Sox actually could have a very viable 6 man rotation. The downside of the rotation is that you're taking away starts from your best pitchers and giving them to your sixth best option - basically the argument that was being made about 40 - 50 years ago when four man rotations were becoming five man rotations. But with the Red Sox this could work as none of those six pitchers are guys who are "replacement" level types of guys. All six are capable of at least being near average and of course some of those names can be a lot better than that. I'm not even recommending doing it early on, but I think if the Sox are playing well around the all-star break and it's an option, I don't think it's a bad idea. I think it could benefit Chris Sale the most, it can keep David Price fresh and do the same for Pomeranz. It keeps E-Rod from having a big innings jump - and the same thing with Wright. The Red Sox have to do something to keep their top innings pitchers fresh. Sale has almost always been better in the 1st half than the second half. Pomeranz' velocity was noticeably down last year and the guy has never really exceed 175 innings. I suspect David Price's struggles as a post-season starter have something to do with his workload, rather than being "gutless" - I mean the guy was nails against Houston and he is the guy who ended the Sox fantasy of being back-to-back World Champs in 2008 - he is capable of getting clutch outs in the post-season. I just think the innings have caught up to the guy. If the Sox are fortunate to be healthy then I think they have a shot at this. Most teams can't even find five viable starters let alone use six. I figure 75 starts divvied up among 6 starters instead of 5 means about 3 less starts per starter meaning about 20 less innings - which could help them more come October. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2018 13:58:49 GMT -5
The Dodgers are really big on having their starters only go through the lineup twice. That's a little more likely to happen in the NL, but it's definitely something that more teams will shift towards. The Rays also were testing that out last season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 15, 2018 14:15:36 GMT -5
Great concept voiceofreason on pitchers. I think the best way to have a rotation of pitchers stay healthy is for expanding rosters to 27 players. I am sure the owners wouldn't want that because it will cut into their bottom line but the players would be all for it. With the 2 added players on each team you expand your rotation to 15 pitchers. I think that would increase the chances of teams going to a 6 man rotation. That is my 2 cents which I am sure everyone will tear apart. Thank you for your time. Hadn't even thought about that angle of expanding rosters. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 15, 2018 14:52:35 GMT -5
Champs I am talking about something a little different than a 6 man rotation and guys missing starts. Sale would still get 32 starts but maybe only pitch 180 innings.
Also my idea would be to add a Johnson and Velazquez to the other 6 and they all pitch 150-180 innings based on health and productivity.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 15, 2018 15:37:26 GMT -5
The Dodgers are really big on having their starters only go through the lineup twice. That's a little more likely to happen in the NL, but it's definitely something that more teams will shift towards. The Rays also were testing that out last season. I am a bit surprised that my thought was already being tried. I checked out the Dodgers stats and their starters average around 5 innings, they are all pretty effective also. So I guess I'm not as crazy as I thought. Drew Pomeranz gets a lot of heat on here for not pitching late into games, maybe that should be the norm. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 15, 2018 15:42:59 GMT -5
The rosters were very close to expanding to 26 players in the last CBA. I bet in the next CBA they expand it to 26 and that's when we will see 6 man rotations and we see shorter games from starting pitching from every team (2 times through the lineup).
Edit-I doubt we ever see 27 man rosters anytime soon. The owners are really stingy when it comes to paying for extra roster spots for a entire season, which is probably why we didn't see the 26 man roster spot change in the last CBA.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2018 16:21:30 GMT -5
The league might also resist expanding the 25 man roster because it could lead to longer games with more pitchers.
Supposedly, they're still looking at a number of things to shorten games this year so expect some news on that.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 15, 2018 16:24:34 GMT -5
Champs I am talking about something a little different than a 6 man rotation and guys missing starts. Sale would still get 32 starts but maybe only pitch 180 innings. Also my idea would be to add a Johnson and Velazquez to the other 6 and they all pitch 150-180 innings based on health and productivity. Well reasoned voice, I think I know where you're coming from and I'm proposing something a bit different and a lot simpler. Instead of the 6th starter you'd have a couple of piggy back starters? I guess you can say as soon as a guy hits a certain pitch limit or goes thru the order 3 times they're out regardless of how well they're pitching. That scenario would be ripe with a lot of second guessing when Sale is pulled even though he is breezing in favor of Brian Johnson in the 6th inning or whatever. On the positive side he's well preserved for the post-season but the downside is that some games will get away during the season perhaps making October more difficult to get to? I totally get the logic of it and it's interesting. Kind of reminds a bit when Mike Marshall was in 108 games throwing over 200 innings in relief. I think the Sox had Bob Stanley doing some of that in 1982 when he finished 2nd in the league in ERA but didn't start any games that year. It sounds like you're looking for two guys who can pitch 75 games 150 innings or so like they used to in the old days? |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 15, 2018 16:27:19 GMT -5
On a Sox related story with the McCutchen trade, Scott Boras and JDM loses yet another suiter with the Giants now set in the corner outfield with Pence and McCutchen.
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Post by m1keyboots on Jan 15, 2018 16:32:07 GMT -5
Whew, six years JDM at 180 million total?. So soon after the Hanley signing(and his incredible last healthy year in LA) and Pablo (after actually hitting)?
Not so sure if DD should break up the band and stick JD out there on this one. Can we hope he brings the Arizona climate to Boston with him, and doesn't turn into the guy he was in Detroit for 30 per with even worse defense?
I understand there is a need for power. I really don't understand some fans want for the guy, for anything over 4 maybe 5 years at anything over 20 a year. We all understand Boras is throwing out the ceiling, even me. I'd need a little more than some good offensive production in Detroit and one amazing half in AZ to make that commitment, but my name isnt trader Dave for nothing.
Anyways, here's to hoping we find a good lefty for the bullpen. One that isnt David Price (although it really was encouraging to see him so dominant in that role when we needed it the most).
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 15, 2018 16:32:26 GMT -5
On a Sox related story with the McCutchen trade, Scott Boras and JDM loses yet another suiter with the Giants now set in the corner outfield with Pence and McCutchen. I was thinking the same thing. So who are Boras and JD down to, Sox and Zona? |
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