2018 Red Sox roster building

With news that Pedroia could be ready for opening day I don't see how 2nd base is an overwhelming need. Maybe he he needs an extra month and maybe he is still the same injury prone player but he is still the 2nd baseman of the present. The Sox really can't move on from him at this point. Just can't see the overall benefit of spending significant money or assets on upgrading the position unless it is a supersub guy.

Pedey definitely is a grinder and at this stage of his career that will probably do more harm than good.
I used to think that Pedey was a real team guy and would handle the back end of his career with class when his skills started to erode but now I don't think that is the case. Sorry to say he seems to be all about Pedey, I could be wrong and it is just a sign of his competitive spirit.
Half the team grinded through injuries last year when it seems many should have sat, hopefully they learned something from that.

Similarly, Fangraphs' 2018 projections are out. They project the Red Sox with 91 wins, which is tied for 5th in MLB, behind the Astros and Indians in the AL and tied with the Yankees in the AL East. Their full position-by-position projection of the roster is here. Not surprisingly, the weakest projected positions (and the ripest area for upgrade) are DH (1.1 wins) and 1B (1.5 wins). Back of the rotation is another potential weak spot, as is middle relief. 

Seem to really be grasping at straws with that statement.  It seems like you are trying to say that Pedroia trying to come back as soon as possible and not make sure he is 100% is what shows he is all about himself?  I really don't follow that thinking because it goes both ways.  While it can hurt the team, from his point of view him not playing is probably hurting the team.
From the point of view of an athlete, do you really think someone like Pedroia would think sitting out is best for the team?  Athletes, especially those that have made a name for themselves like Pedroia, are  likely going to believe that they can do it and them playing is best for the team.  Without that kind of attitude I would assume it is much more difficult to actually succeed at a professional level like this.

We really can't use Ortiz as a benchmark for salary because the Red Sox (at least in my opinion and probably Ortiz's opinion, too) pretty much got a bargain on David Ortiz for a lot of years. Can't expect a guy with no ties to Boston to display the loyalty that Ortiz had.

Just gives me yet another reason to appreciate (and miss) Big Papi. It's kind of like Tom Brady. Probably the G.O.A.T., yet not the greatest paid QB annually per time. That type of loyalty is so rare. Ortiz valued his status as Mr. (face of the franchise) Red Sox and/or Mr. Boston and stuck around instead of seriously looking for greener pastures. He'd complain about being underpaid because he's only a DH..., he's well over 30..., but was there anybody else you'd ever want up more in a key spot or was there really a guy you'd rather have anchoring that lineup?

I think your idea of a 6 year $142 million dollar is in the ballpark of what's fair for the player and the team. Wanting $30 million/year or 7 or 8 years on Martinez's part is ridiculous. I don't think the extra year should be a killer. The Sox lineup in '18 and '19 and even '20 is a lot more stronger with him than without him, and honestly who in the world knows what the team would look like in 2023? We have very little idea of what the Sox core looks like at that point other than Devers should be headed for free agency after that season ends and nobody knows who else would be on that team? I'm not generally in favor of adding another year onto a contract, but I don't have the trepidation about a 6th year here that many others do. I get why the trepidation, but this staredown is a game I don't think the Sox can afford to lose. The value of the next three seasons is so huge that I think they need to capitalize on it. Other then assuming (and who knows?) that Devers is on the 2023 team we have no idea if Mookie or even Benintendi are on those teams. We don't know if Dombrowski is the GM or if John Henry/Tom Werner even own the team by then. What we do know is if the farm system doesn't start developing more impact talent soon they will have trouble replacing any departing core team members without having to spend huge $ to do so. Hopefully the farm system starts seriously percolating by 2019 or else that could be a serious issue come 2023, bigger than giving Martinez that extra year.

2b is an issue for about 150 - 200 ABs, but between a Hernandez/Marrero platoon, Quiroz, or perhaps whatever 2b bat winds up in the bargain bin (Brandon Phillips, Chase Utley or even Neil Walker) the Sox can make due.

Pedroia will come back. It'll be a test for Cora which I don't think given his dynamic with Pedroia, should be an issue. If Cora tells Pedroia he's not ready to play yet, Pedroia is not going to play. As Pedroia himself says, he always followed what Cora told him to do, not the other way around, so I'm not as worried about this dynamic or Pedroia necessarily coming back too soon. He might try to push it, but he's only getting in the lineup if Cora allows it.

If Cora isn't much of a manager he'll throw him in there, but if he is, he'll let Pedroia know when he's really ready.

I have no issue with Pedroia itching to be ready. That's who he is. That's his makeup. What we have to hope for is that Pedroia at 80% isn't better than the production they're getting at 2b. I'd like to see him fully heeled (or much as he realistically can be.)

The ZiPS projections also are out: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

I think Fangraphs has the BAs of Betts, Bogaerts and Beni a little low. I think we are going to see improvement in all three, especially Bogaerts. The overall BA projection is probably about right.

I think the SP ERA is a bit high because I think Porcello is going to have a good season.

It's maddening that ZiPS does not have the BAs. Their projection of HRs looks good.

Ding ding ding!

It's an identification of talent issue more than a development issue. I think there's some blame due with Barnes and I think he could've ended up a starter, but they never got enough credit for getting flawed dudes like Owens and Ranaudo and Johnson to the majors.

The other side of that coin is that their absurd laser-focus on tall pitchers led them to Owens and Ranaudo types. When they broke off from that habit, they ended up drafting Michael Kopech.

I would love to see a healthy pedroia ready to go by opening day, but how can any athlete come back from micro fracture surgery that fast?

I would rather have 100 games of totally healthy pedroia vs. 140 games of broke down pedroia playing through an extended recovery period.

I am really hoping our medical team keeps him from being over aggressive in his recovery and suffering an extended setback.

I agree.

And my point (and I apologize for not making it clearly enough) was that Ranaudo and Owens were talent identification mistakes, rather than player development mistakes. Though I think the reward with Ranaudo was high enough that he was worth the risk. You could throw Pat Light into that category too, though I have some issues with how they used him in the lower minors.

And my personal opinion is that there has been an over-emphasis on height from the Red Sox for pitchers.

What makes it all the more frustrating/jarring is how well the Red Sox have done this decade finding and developing talent specifically because they've ignored height. If Benintendi was 6'2" he'd have gone #1 overall. Bradley and Chavis don't make it out of the top 10 if they are 6'1". Mookie Betts isn't an afterthought.

It would seem that Boras is now calling up his mouthpiece to make a statement, Jon Heyman. Things are shaking a little: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/red-sox-offer-to-j-d-martinez-reportedly-in-range-of-100mm.html

Boras appears to not be fully in charge and that's a good thing.

It does. Scroll down.

In general, there's no way you can make an informed decision about either of these scenarios, or any like them, from afar. You would have to have a comprehensive idea of the players's skills, makeup, projection, etc. before entering the system and have followed them through each step up the ladder very closely to see how everything developed and what instruction he was receiving. You don't have this. None of us do.

Taking those two guys as examples, the things that did Owens in - lack of control, subpar fastball - are things that were pointed out from the second he entered the system. Read his BA draft scouting report:

Is player development the reason his fastball stayed pedestrian? He lacked projection. And this doesn't discuss control, but the guy walked >4 batters per nine in his first season, and that didn't get better either. If there is a magic technique to cure command/control, no team in baseball has it.

On the other hand, you can't say Ball is a talent evaluation issue easily either. Let's look at BA again:

While a lot of us (I've been guilty of this) have said something like "well even we knew they should've picked Meadows," this wasn't a situation where it was a crazy pick at 7. That report even says it - he was a potential top 5 pick and was a likely top 10 pick. This wasn't the Royals taking Hunter Dozier with the next pick. Ball was athletic and projectable, and when you actually see him pitch in person, you can get why he got picked where he did. The problem is the stuff hasn't ticked up at all, and in fact, has backed up at this point.

Note that my point here is not that you're wrong and the opposite is true. My point is only that none of us here have nearly the data necessarily to pinpoint what went wrong on the talent eval vs. player dev. question. You can make a compelling argument in either direction because either argument is, as necessity, going to rely on assumptions.