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2018 Patriots/NFL offseason thread
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 29, 2018 18:23:03 GMT -5
The Patriots used draft picks to find 3 or 4 starters and some role players while at the same time setting up next years draft with extra picks. Only time will tell how it all works out but I think they did a great job.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 29, 2018 18:28:02 GMT -5
The Patriots used draft picks to find 3 or 4 starters and some role players while at the same time setting up next years draft with extra picks. Only time will tell how it all works out but I think they did a great job. Define starters. Not saying the Patriots had a bad draft, no one knows that yet. That'll take years to find out. There might be one or two actual starters out of this draft in Michel and maybe Wynn. I say maybe with Wynn because depth and/or other players in the O-line might step up and take the starting job. Even Michel isn't even a every down back here.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 29, 2018 20:19:44 GMT -5
They turned the 43rd pick into a future 2nd and 3rd, plus a pick used to move up to get Dawson. In the NFL there are no guarantees those picks are higher. Detriot has talent, they have a good QB and now a good coach. That 2nd could easily be lower next year, they didn't get a future first for example. We'll see how it plays out, but it wasn't a slam dunk type trade. Frankly it seemed like they just wanted to spread the Jimmy pick around so the return wasn't one player. The 2019 draft is supposed to have a lot more talent than 2018 from top to bottom. How does one go about measuring this sort of thing with any degree of accuracy? Color me dubious.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 29, 2018 20:24:39 GMT -5
Why are people complaining about trading down so much? Waiting one year is not a big deal at all especially if that pick they’re acquiring is going to be higher than the one they gave up. Clearly they traded down because they didn’t like the pick. There are some NBA teams that are trading for picks 3-4 years from now for crying out loud. The Patriots window to win is now though, not next year. Who knows what will happen with Brady and Gronk next year. We barely knew what they were going to do this year. Couldn't get answers out of neither until recently. I don't think BB agrees with you. He/they expect to compete for championships every year. Haven't people been talking about Tom Brady's window for a decade? At least back to when media was assessing his body language. "Look! See how unhappy he looks there? They need weapons for Brady -- his window is closing!"
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 30, 2018 0:26:11 GMT -5
The Patriots window to win is now though, not next year. Who knows what will happen with Brady and Gronk next year. We barely knew what they were going to do this year. Couldn't get answers out of neither until recently. I don't think BB agrees with you. He/they expect to compete for championships every year. Haven't people been talking about Tom Brady's window for a decade? At least back to when media was assessing his body language. "Look! See how unhappy he looks there? They need weapons for Brady -- his window is closing!" Brady is 41 this season. Yes his window is closing and the realistic window is here.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 1:47:26 GMT -5
The Patriots traded a fourth round pick for a 2019 third. How is there “no guarantee thats going to be higher?” And about the trade with the Bears - the Bears have been trash for about a decade now. That pick is, at worst going to be about the same, plus they got an extra pick out of it. Those were arguably the biggest slam dunks of the entire draft and people are complaining about it? I was talking about the 2nd round pick. Based on value the Detriot trade was a slam dunk. Very likely you get close to 3 times more value, maybe more if you get lucky. The overall package we got for moving down from 43 isn't close to that one trade though. You trade 43 for future picks a slam dunk is a future first. You need to discount the value of the future picks. A dollar today is worth a lot more than a dollar a year from now. A general rule of thumb is you jump up a round or get double or more in value. Add in that this might be Brady's last year and I don't see the slam dunk you do. We didn't get close to that value. What does how the Bears have been have to do with anything? Are they likely to be worse, better or the same next year? Considering they started a rookie QB who overall didn't play horrible, they have offensive talent and there top 3 picks should really help next year. The pick we traded to them was for a WR everyone loves. If I had to guess they are better
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 2:02:01 GMT -5
The 2019 draft is supposed to have a lot more talent than 2018 from top to bottom. How does one go about measuring this sort of thing with any degree of accuracy? Color me dubious. Measuring it is easy, with accuracy? I don't think so. Just last year Notre Dame got the two guys that just went top 10 to return to college. Everyone had them going pro because they were first round picks. The NFL draft isn't the NBA draft, so I agree 100%.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 30, 2018 6:00:52 GMT -5
The Patriots used draft picks to find 3 or 4 starters and some role players while at the same time setting up next years draft with extra picks. Only time will tell how it all works out but I think they did a great job. Define starters. Not saying the Patriots had a bad draft, no one knows that yet. That'll take years to find out. There might be one or two actual starters out of this draft in Michel and maybe Wynn. I say maybe with Wynn because depth and/or other players in the O-line might step up and take the starting job. Even Michel isn't even a every down back here. When I say starters I am not necessarily talking about right away next season but within the next 2 seasons. I think the first 3 all have a very good chance of that. Wynn is going to be a starter most likely from day 1 that you can just about count on unless he gets injured. Michel, even if he doesn't start will get a strong % of the snaps and be productive. Dawson is more of a risk as it is tougher to predict how he will measure up but if he ends up being the 3rd cb/ slot db then I consider that a starter as he will play a big % of the snaps. I think one of the LBs taken later on have a chance to be productive also. Then throw Trent Brown in the mix as being part of the draft via trade. Then you have Shelton who was traded for a 2019 pick who will start. Sure we are talking next years draft but isn't it all the same when you look at the big picture. They traded a 3rd for him but replenished via this draft. So yeah I see the draft and the trades as being very good.
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Post by GyIantosca on Apr 30, 2018 6:17:19 GMT -5
I can’t believe the Patriots got good grades about the draft. I thought they were gonna get roasted.
The only thing is we draft Chandler Jones dévelope him and he leaves. They rarely draft high end LB. I think Sam is a good pick. But we lose I forget his name to the Browns. I mean the prices keep going up they should do a better job of keeping there high end talent. You can fix the numbers. Sometimes I feel ownership doesn’t feel comfortable giving out big signing bonuses. I know they do like Gilmore but it’s once in a while. I feel we were one less player no the defense from winning the super bowl. The talent was not good enough in the super bowl.
I love the Patriots and I just saying how I feel . Just an observation .
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 30, 2018 6:30:33 GMT -5
I can’t believe the Patriots got good grades about the draft. I thought they were gonna get roasted. The only thing is we draft Chandler Jones dévelope him and he leaves. They rarely draft high end LB. I think Sam is a good pick. But we lose I forget his name to the Browns. I mean the prices keep going up they should do a better job of keeping there high end talent. You can fix the numbers. Sometimes I feel ownership doesn’t feel comfortable giving out big signing bonuses. I know they do like Gilmore but it’s once in a while. I feel we were one less player no the defense from winning the super bowl. The talent was not good enough in the super bowl. I love the Patriots and I just saying how I feel . Just an observation . I know people are upset more wasn’t done to improve the defense but I really think we are overlooking what they have added. This is who the defense lost from the guys who played the Super Bowl: Harrison Bademosi Ricky Jean Francois This is who they should be adding to that unit: Dawson (draft) McCourty (trade) Hightower (inj) Rivers (inj) Shelton (trade) Clayborn (FA) Jonathan Jones (inj) Cyrus Jones (inj) Valentine (inj) Bentley (draft) Sam (draft) Langi (inj) Crosson (draft) Add in the second year jump for Wise and Flowers continued development and you have a much improved defense. They are still very susceptible to certain injuries but if health is on their side this season this can be a very good to great defense.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 30, 2018 6:57:47 GMT -5
By the way, I know he’s not on defense but Braxton Berrios is such a Patriot pick. Not simply because he’s a small white slot receiver either. He seems to have that same toughness and ability to catch the ball with fearlessness over the middle.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 30, 2018 10:02:25 GMT -5
The Patriots traded a fourth round pick for a 2019 third. How is there “no guarantee thats going to be higher?” And about the trade with the Bears - the Bears have been trash for about a decade now. That pick is, at worst going to be about the same, plus they got an extra pick out of it. Those were arguably the biggest slam dunks of the entire draft and people are complaining about it? I was talking about the 2nd round pick. Based on value the Detriot trade was a slam dunk. Very likely you get close to 3 times more value, maybe more if you get lucky. The overall package we got for moving down from 43 isn't close to that one trade though. You trade 43 for future picks a slam dunk is a future first. You need to discount the value of the future picks. A dollar today is worth a lot more than a dollar a year from now. A general rule of thumb is you jump up a round or get double or more in value. Add in that this might be Brady's last year and I don't see the slam dunk you do. We didn't get close to that value. What does how the Bears have been have to do with anything? Are they likely to be worse, better or the same next year? Considering they started a rookie QB who overall didn't play horrible, they have offensive talent and there top 3 picks should really help next year. The pick we traded to them was for a WR everyone loves. If I had to guess they are better If someone they liked was available they likely would have taken them though. So they punted the pick a year while also picking up a late round pick. The Bears are easily the worst team in their division, so yes its a fairly safe bet that pick will be at worst, about the same. And about the “return on the Jimmy G” trade - the Patriots essentially traded a rental player as he was a free agent and we couldn’t afford him. The return looks underwhelming for sure but the alternative was losing him for some shitty compensatory pick. The Niners had to give Jimmy a massive contract to sign him. It sucks, but the Patriots did try to keep him. Now I’m not always a Patriots apologist - I think Belichick deserves almost 100% of the blame for losing the Super Bowl, and I hate the Dawson pick and trade, but people are absolutely concerned about the wrong things here.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 30, 2018 12:31:58 GMT -5
Does anyone here remember the "Squish the Fish" towels from back in the mid 90's? They were in response to our inability to beat the Marino-led 'Phins. Finally, with Parcells & Bledsoe in place for a couple of years ,we were able to compete again on equal footing. But it was bleak for awhile, knowing as long as the Dolphins had a Marino, and we didn't, we were toast.
I suppose that's what it's been like for the rest of the AFC East for the last 15 years, and to a lesser degree, most of the rest of the AFC. What, by way of draft capital, do you suppose the Jets or Dolphins or Steelers would have paid to take Tom Brady off the Patriots roster? To move him elsewhere, far away, like say, Seattle or LA or San Francisco? See you every 4 years Tom Brady, and maybe some day in the Super Bowl.
Wouldn't each team pay at least a #1 pick, knowing how things have turned out? I'd have given up a whole draft to miss the Marino era, easily. You want two #1's, Don Shula? Done!
I bring this up because of the condemnation of the Jimmy G trade. If BB was convinced Jimmy G was "the goods" -- and we're all assuming he's had that realization -- isn't location the most important return (if the Patriots expect to continue to compete for championships)?
One common refrain is he might've been traded to Cle for 2017 pick #13, or even that plus more. But wouldn't making that trade, with such a volatile organization, leave very much open a situation where he would've ended up an unrestricted free agent in 2018, and a candidate to land in the AFC East? To me, that's not a risk worth taking.
I agree the "material return" was uninspiring. But some of that returned was used to buy "disaster insurance" and, although nobody likes paying the premium, I think most would agree it's always a good idea.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 30, 2018 12:33:16 GMT -5
By the way, I know he’s not on defense but Braxton Berrios is such a Patriot pick. Not simply because he’s a small white slot receiver either. He seems to have that same toughness and ability to catch the ball with fearlessness over the middle. And an accomplished punt returner! Wes Welker with wheels. Got any foot jokes, B?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 12:37:19 GMT -5
I was talking about the 2nd round pick. Based on value the Detriot trade was a slam dunk. Very likely you get close to 3 times more value, maybe more if you get lucky. The overall package we got for moving down from 43 isn't close to that one trade though. You trade 43 for future picks a slam dunk is a future first. You need to discount the value of the future picks. A dollar today is worth a lot more than a dollar a year from now. A general rule of thumb is you jump up a round or get double or more in value. Add in that this might be Brady's last year and I don't see the slam dunk you do. We didn't get close to that value. What does how the Bears have been have to do with anything? Are they likely to be worse, better or the same next year? Considering they started a rookie QB who overall didn't play horrible, they have offensive talent and there top 3 picks should really help next year. The pick we traded to them was for a WR everyone loves. If I had to guess they are better If someone they liked was available they likely would have taken them though. So they punted the pick a year while also picking up a late round pick. The Bears are easily the worst team in their division, so yes its a fairly safe bet that pick will be at worst, about the same. And about the “return on the Jimmy G” trade - the Patriots essentially traded a rental player as he was a free agent and we couldn’t afford him. The return looks underwhelming for sure but the alternative was losing him for some shitty compensatory pick. The Niners had to give Jimmy a massive contract to sign him. It sucks, but the Patriots did try to keep him. Now I’m not always a Patriots apologist - I think Belichick deserves almost 100% of the blame for losing the Super Bowl, and I hate the Dawson pick and trade, but people are absolutely concerned about the wrong things here. The Bears had the second best defense in that Division last year. They just added Smith, most likely the biggest defensive addition made during the offseason on D for those 4 teams. If there rookie QB makes a normal jump to around average this year they can win a few more games. They just aren't the Browns from last year, they seem to have a solid plan. The thing that gets me is just they traded the picks, so we assume they didn't like anyone. OK, but we can't question if that was the right thing? It seems kinda foolish that they only liked one player after the 1st round all the way to the 5th round when they way over drafted a guy. Based on the trades it seems that is the way they felt, but wow there were a ton of players there at positions of need. If we have issues at DE or safety next year, which is a legit concern maybe they should have used those picks. I want another superbowl before Brady is done. My main point being they need to increase the amount of players that they are willing to draft because right now the pool is too small. Not a bad draft which is why I gave it a B+. Better to get future picks than way overdraft a guy, but wow how could they not like a bunch of those guys? I have to disagree about Jimmy. Bill was going to keep him, untill Brady forced his hand. We also have money right now and could easily get more by cutting a few very overpaid players. Just remember Jimmy isn't getting that mega deal if he doesn't play for the 49ers. By all reports he wanted to stay and Brady told him time to move on. Then Bill didn't go after the best offer because he was pissed and wanted to make sure Jimmy did well. So we didn't even try to trade him to the Browns after they offered us a ton before the last draft. They were going to trade two seconds for AJ, we could have got more for Jimmy. I'm upset at the whole thing frankly. We had alternative routes we could have taken. It's why I question the trades frankly, was it no players we liked or trying to turn the Jimmy trade into a big win?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 12:41:22 GMT -5
By the way, I know he’s not on defense but Braxton Berrios is such a Patriot pick. Not simply because he’s a small white slot receiver either. He seems to have that same toughness and ability to catch the ball with fearlessness over the middle. Not a bad pick, but he's like an exact match to Riley McCarron who was my sleeper pick to make the team. Heck I think McCarron tested better athletically. Adds depth and he was ranked right around where he was picked, I just wonder is a guy like St. Brown would have been better. We'll see, most likely just practice squad depth.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 13:13:59 GMT -5
I wanted to add the Patriots could make this draft look a lot better by adding DE Robert Ayers and one of the many good safeties still available in free agency. Jordan Richards has no business making the roster.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Apr 30, 2018 13:35:54 GMT -5
I wanted to add the Patriots could make this draft look a lot better by adding DE Robert Ayers and one of the many good safeties still available in free agency. Jordan Richards has no business making the roster.Agreed. When he was drafted I was excited to be getting a "coach on the field." Little did I know he'd play like as if a coach had suited up. Ugh, and best wishes in your future endeavors.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 30, 2018 13:49:12 GMT -5
Time to sign Eric Reid and let him kneel all he wants
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 30, 2018 14:46:04 GMT -5
Time to sign Eric Reid and let him kneel all he wants He even said he would stop it. I almost feel they stayed away from his brother because of that whole situation. That would be such an impactful signing it's not even funny. It just makes so much sense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 1, 2018 11:28:32 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2018 11:32:31 GMT -5
That probably would have been dumb unless they committed to trading Brady. It would have taken multiple future 1st round picks and left a lot of current and future holes just to have a great backup QB in Brady's last years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on May 1, 2018 13:25:12 GMT -5
That probably would have been dumb unless they committed to trading Brady. It would have taken multiple future 1st round picks and left a lot of current and future holes just to have a great backup QB in Brady's last years. Based off value the #2 pick is worth 2600, the Patriots top 4 picks were worth a total of 1906. It would have been a crazy high cost like two first, two seconds this year and two future first round picks. Even then it's not a slam dunk trade based purely off value. Most teams trading up giving away multiple firsts are crappy teams picking high in the draft, not at the end of the draft. You might have to add in more future 2nd round picks, heck maybe more first round picks. Which is just crazy, but also highlights our problem of getting a QB if the ones you like are top 5 guys. So yea I'm glad we didn't make that trade. I'm also glad that they actually like a QB in this class, I knew they had to have liked someone in a rather deep class.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on May 1, 2018 17:28:16 GMT -5
There's another story that said Mayfield camp wouldn't meet with Patriots because their 1st rounder was too far out of range, but when Josh M said they were "considering" a move to #2, they relented. Much ado -- like everything Patriots -- methinks.
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Post by rjp313jr on May 2, 2018 6:56:22 GMT -5
“Yeah, for sure. It’s great. It’s high,” Hill said of the competition in comments distributed by the team. “Obviously, those guys have played in Super Bowls and played at high levels and played big in playoff games, so the competition is definitely there, but I have all the faith in myself to go out there and compete at a high level, as well. It’ll only bring the best out of all of us. I think that’s how we want to approach every day, just playing at a high level, all of us and only good things can come from that.”
Reading this made me feel good about Hill. He’s got talent and he’s hungry to compete; that’s great to hear and usually leads to results. This more than anything is why the Patriots have been so great. Guys working their tails off and competing.
The running back group is going to be interesting. Is there any way they keep 5 plus Bolden? I doubt it.
Locks: Michel White
Pretty safe:
Burkehead
Fighting it out for final spot:
Hill Gillisle
I was super high on Gillisle last year. He’s a very talented back but found himself in the doghouse. Truthfully, I expect Michel to basically take over the position, but he and White may play some split out together as well, but Gillisle and Hill can be really nice under-rated compliments to the offense.
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